Syria Live Coverage: Insurgents Make Key Advance in South

1803 GMT: What's So Important About a Croatian Rocket Launcher? James Miller provides a snap analysis:

Today we posted evidence that a 12-tube 8.5-13km range Croatian rocket launcher has made it to the battlefields of Syria.

See also Syria Exclusive: New Arms for Insurgents --- The Case of the Croatian Multiple Rocket Launcher

Why does this matter?

There are three different levels of significance. The first is the military effectiveness of the weapon. The second level concerns what the weapon's presence says about the state of the international effort to arm the rebels. The third is a question about the rule of unintended consequences. We'll be treating these separately in a longer analysis, especially the last two, but this deserves some treatment now.

First, militarily this weapon is fairly significant. The rebels are constantly being hit by long range artillery and multiple launch rockets, so this helps level that playing field. Of course, even if all of the RAK-12s were given to the Syrian rebels, this would not match the regime's firepower. However, in our updates to our separate feature we've posted video that already shows this launcher targeting the Damascus International Airport. These weapons are extremely effective at attacking isolated regime bases over short, medium, and long range distances. This weapon could provide much needed help in cracking Assad's most formidable defenses, though it's still hard to see how a few of these weapons will make a significant difference. Also, the rebels have some similar weapons that they have captured from the regime, so the presence of a few rocket launchers is not going to dramatically change the situation.

Click to read more ...

Syria Exclusive: New Arms for Insurgents --- The Case of the Croatian Multiple Rocket Launcher

A rebel spokesman shows off a new weapon. Our sources suggest that this is a Croatian Rak-12.

UPDATE: This weapon has been spotted on the battlefield. Scroll to the bottom for details.

---

To date, most of the insurgent arsenal in Syria has been captured from the regime's army. Other arms came from Croatia, as part of an international effort to bolster the insurgency. On Friday, we saw a new, mysterious weapon.

Click to read more ...

Syria Analysis: International Aid Fuels Key Insurgent Victories in South

View Map of Daraa in a larger map

Map of Rebel and Regime Territoyr in Daraa by stApexf.

---

Today, insurgents from the Dawn of Islam Brigade captured several key checkpoints across a town named Dael (often written Da'el) in Daraa Province. There are reports that the fighters have control of the entire town.

Dael's fall is significant. It may be the defining example of how the international effort to give military assistance to the rebels, led by Saudi Arabia and the US, is rapidly changing the face of the war.

Control of Daraa Province gives the rebels access to Syria's border with Jordan, from where outside forces are providing military asssistance.

Dael is strategically located for that obejctive. Its capture would both help insulate rebel territory from attack, and serve as a base from which to attack the provincial capital, Daraa.

For these reasons, Dael may have been specifically targeted by what may be the most important insurgent organization in southern Syria, one with ties to rebel commander Salim Idriss.

Click to read more ...

Syria Live Coverage: Hesitating on Weapons to Insurgents?

1314 GMT: American Arrested for Fighting Alongside Al Nusra Eric Harroun, a 30 year old former American soldier, has been arrested in Washington DC. Harroun has been fighting in Syria alongside the Syrian Islamic group Jabhat al Nusra. He is being charged for using a rocket propelled grenade outside of the service of the US military:

Click to read more ...

Syria Live Coverage: The Opposition Opens an Embassy

1607 GMT: Rebels Attack Base in Daraa. The rebels have continued their assault against the home of the regime's Battalion 49 just west of Alma, in Daraa province (map). As you can see from the map below, made by @stApexf of Twitter, the base is north of a group of recently captured bases and is in an area of disputed territory:

View Map of Daraa in a larger map

This area is extremely important. Just months ago, the amount of blue or green territory here was almost non-existent. In fact, the regime was so strong that it would have been hard to call any of the area "yellow" or disputed. An influx of new fighters from other areas of Syria, new defectors from Daraa province, and new rebel recruits have helped change this dynamic. Perhaps more important, rebel fighters have also returned to this area after receiving training in both Jordan, and possibly Idlib province....

Click to read more ...

Syria Live Coverage: The Arab League Recognises the Opposition

1545 GMT: Riot in Turkish Camp. The Turkish police have disrupted a protest in a Syrian refugee camp today. The Guardian reports:

Turkish police have fired water cannon and teargas at Syrian refugees after a fight broke out in a refugee camp in Akcakale.

Turkey's Today's Zaman said refugees had thrown stones and damaged property. It said the protest came after a child was killed in a tent fire. Three others were injured.

1452 GMT: Opposition Opens Embassy - in Qatar. Following the Arab League's recognition of the Syrian National Coalition as the sole representatives of the Syrian people, the opposition group has opened it's first embassy - in Qatar. Qatar has been militarily supplying the Syrian rebels with arms for about a year (in contrast, the Saudi effort that was endorsed by the US did not start until December 2012), and Qatari-linked elements in the opposition have gained power on both Syria's streets and in the membership of the Syrian National Coalition. This is perhaps another sign that the opposition leadership is most willing to deal with countries that are willing to assist the opposition militarily.

Also, it's interesting to see that Moaz al Khatib attended the ribbon cutting himself:

Click to read more ...

Iran Live Coverage: "The Revolutionary Guards Will Protect the Election"

General Yadollah Javani1805 GMT: Foreign Affairs Watch (Syrian Front). Deputy Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian has criticised today's decision by the Arab League to give Syria's seat to the opposition, warning that the move will set a “dangerous” precedent in the Arab world.

“This measure taken by the Arab League will be taken to mean the end of the [Arab] League’s role in the region,” Amir-Abdollahian claimed.

Click to read more ...

Syria Live Coverage: Will the Arab League Recognise the Opposition?

1652 GMT: Rebels Chip At Assad Bases. On two important fronts, the Syrian rebels are directly attacking Assad strongpoints - using two very different methods, with two different sets of results.

The first is in Qaboun, northeastern Damascus. The rebels have essentially surrounded the headquarters of the Special Forces (map). Parts of the compound have been extensively damaged by these mortar rounds. This base is a significant threat to the rebel operations in Jobar, to the south, so while the rebels fight pitched street battles there, they can chip away at this base, which might be one of the real objectives of this offensive:

The other attack is in the west-central area surrounding the Ummayyad Square. For at least three days, mortars and rocket attacks have hit the area. Many appear to be targeting SANA, Syrian State Media (map). These are the attacks that are launched from the southwest, from rebel controlled areas some distance outside the city. The attacks have convinced the UN top remove a significant portion of its staff from Syria. However, beyond spreading fear, it's unclear if the attacks have any military affect. Both international media and Syrian State Media report that the attacks have killed civilians. This is the latest summary from SANA:

Click to read more ...

Syria Video Feature: The Agony of Aleppo's Children

Britain's Channel 4 features the work of filmmaker Marcel Mettelsiefen, who spent several weeks meeting children in an Aleppo hospital:

Syria Audio Analysis: An Opposition in Crisis? --- Scott Lucas with Monocle 24

Moaz al-KhatibFollowing up our EA analysis, I spoke with Monocle 24's The Briefing yesterday about the tensions within the opposition, marked by the resignation of the head of the Syrian National Coalition, Moaz al-Khatib, and what happens next.

Listen to discussion, from 5:50 mark, on The Briefing's homepage, or in a pop-out window.

The take-away lines: "These events are a huge threat to the opposition and --- with the Arab League's meeting today, which could have recognised the Coalition as the representative of the Syrian people --- the timing is awful.The process has been stalled, and it may be undone, with no vision of what is to follow."

And this: "Meanwhile the key factor --- let's be honest here --- the key factor is what is happening on the ground in Syria. If the insurgents continues to make advances, the politics will have to follow that."