The Turkey-Israel-US Triangle: Obama Boosts Erdogan's Credibility

On Sunday, following a conversation with Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, President Obama conducted an e-mail interview with the Turkish daily Hurriyet. 

Obama said that he and Erdogan had “reaffirmed the strong state of U.S.-Turkish relations” despite some differences “from time to time.” He continued:

Our partnership is resilient, and we agreed that the irresponsible acts of WikiLeaks do not threaten it. Given the increasingly complex challenges the world faces, I believe that U.S.-Turkish cooperation is more important now than ever.

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Wikileaks Analysis: Getting Behind the Revelations on Iran and Arab States

Shibley Telhami writes for The National Interest:

One of the highlights of the most recent Wikileaks release has been the focus on Arab attitudes toward Iran. The headlines suggest Arab unanimity in support of a U.S. or Israeli military attack on the Islamic Republic, as long as Arab governments are allowed to keep their heads low to the ground. There was much evidence, and many colorful quotations, to make the case, especially from Saudi, Bahraini, and United Arab Emirates' leaders. And although some of the quotations were jaw-dropping, in truth it was all a bunch of stuff we've heard before. But analysis by the media that followed, and the sweeping conclusion that "Arabs support attacking Iran", is misplaced and ignores significant differences among Arab governments about how to deal with Iran and especially missed the boat on true attitudes of the Arab public.

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Wikileaks Special: A Guide to Day 3 of EA's Coverage

ANALYSES

1. Gary Sick assesses the revelations in the documents about the Obama Administration's "engagement" strategy towards Iran.

2. Scott Peterson reports on the scepticism over the sincerity of US approaches in light of the documents.

3. Gareth Porter dissects media coverage of stories such as the call of Arab leaders for military action against Tehran and North Korean missiles to Iran.

FEATURES AND DOCUMENTS

1. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton asks about the Mystery of the Disappearing Anti-American Graffiti in Iran.

2. Syrian President Bashar al-Assad gives a US Congressman the ultimate answer to US questions about human rights.

Wikileaks Document: Syria's Assad Gives the Ultimate Response to the US on Human Rights

Senator Cardin pressed on, insisting that Syria should adhere to widely accepted international standards. He explained, "When the U.S. is challenged, you see it on the front page of the newspaper."

Was Assad now cornered? Not at all.

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Wikileaks Special: The Consequences for Turkey and the US

I have written often of Ankara's pro-Western tendencies, underlining that Erdogan's government is nothing short of a liberal and pragmatic organisation, seeking relative autonomy in the region without raising an eyebrow in the Oval Office. So have a look at this ridiculous quotation, taken from an adviser to the ruling AKP party and added into a US report: "Turkey wants to take back Andalusia and avenge the defeat at the siege of Vienna in 1683."

There are only two options for an analyst: either some of the American diplomats are seriously ignorant about the politics and strategies pursued in the country where they are authorized to work or they are being asked to report any shred of "information" without filtering it.

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Lebanon Special: Queries over the Special Tribunal, Hariri, and the Accusation against Hezbollah

Claudio Gallo writes for EA:

The search for truth about the Hariri case has once more sunk into a poisonous marsh threatening another Lebanese civil war. Hezbollah continues to maintain that there is Israeli hand behind the attack and that the Tribunal is politicised. In August, the Hezbollah leader Sayyid Hassan Nasrallah introduced TV footage, apparently stolen from an Israeli drone, which seemed to show surveillance by Israeli intelligence of the route of  Hariri’s car. The issue now is whether Hezbollah goes beyond accusation to launch a political move pressuring or even taking control of the Lebanese Government.

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Lebanon Special: Justice or A Death Blow for Beirut? (Narwani)

This Tribunal is no longer about justice. To weigh one man's death against the lives of four million Lebanese and countless other millions who could be caught up in a regional conflagration is sheer madness.

Imagine the trauma of this Levantine nation as the trial draws out, day after day, week after week, month after month - creating divisions, frictions, suspicions to the detriment of Lebanon's fledgling government which has made admirable strides in maintaining its equilibrium and learning the art of compromise this past year.

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Lebanon Special: The CBC Video and Article "Who Killed Rafik Hariri?"

Evidence gathered by Lebanese police and, much later, the UN, points overwhelmingly to the fact that the assassins were from Hezbollah, the militant Party of God that is largely sponsored by Syria and Iran. CBC News has obtained cellphone and other telecommunications evidence that is at the core of the case.

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Lebanon Interview: State Department's Feltman Plays with Beirut as a Pawn

A depressing interview in The Washington Post with the Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs, Jeffrey D. Feltman.

It's depressing because almost none of Feltman's words --- and thus, I presume, the State Department's attention --- are about Lebanon. There's no recognition here of the concerns of the Lebanese people, of the relationship amongst Shia, Sunni, Christian, and Druze communities, of the economic, social, and religious issues in the country, of the initiatives to bring some agreement amongst factions and thus some progress. Indeed, the only Lebanese whom Feltman specifically notes --- apart from a fleeting reference to President Michel Suleiman (not even a mention for Prime Minister Saad Hariri) --- are "Hezbollah".

That is because Feltman's concern is not about Lebanon but about Syria and Iran, to the point where he drops all pretence of "Lebanon" at one point and talks about the situation in Iraq. The interviewer is no better: note the concluding question, "So you don't think Lebanon is about to fall into Iran's hands?":

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Turkey Analysis: What Does Ankara's New "Red Book" of Threats Mean?

On Wednesday, Turkey's National Security Council (MGK) agreed to make radical changes to a document. referred to as the “Red Book” or the "Secret Constitution", in which the main threats over the next five years to Turkey's security are outlined.  

Is the Erdogan government a new "De Gaulle" which is just pursuing its political calculations or is it the Trojan Horse aligning with "radicals" such as Iran, Syria, Hamas and Hezbollah?

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