Egypt (and Beyond) LiveBlog: A Big Day --- And Not Just in Cairo

0107 GMT: Fox News reports that an assassination attempt on newly-appointed Vice President Omar Suleiman left two people dead this week. Neither Fox nor anyone else has confirmed this story. When asked the question, White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs had this to say: 

"I'm not going to ... get into that question,"

0100 GMT: Members of hacktivist group Anonymous have targeted the government websites of Yemen and Egypt in solidarity with the protests in those country against the dictators. They used Distributed Denial of Services (DDoS) attacks to make websites unavailable for viewing. 

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Egypt (and Beyond) LiveBlog: So What is an "Orderly Transition"?

2250 GMT: Ivan Watson of CNN reports that the Egyptian Ministry of Information has told them all cell phone service will be shut down just ahead of tomorrow's expected 'Million Man March'. 

2242 GMT: Are you in Egypt? Do you have a phone? Do you want to tweet about the uprising, but don't have internet because it has been shut down? Then, Google has good news for you and us all. Googleblog just ran this post:

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Egypt (and Beyond) LiveBlog: Black Hole or Another Day of Revolution

So there is a 13-hour curfew imposed in Egypt, right? What that means is that people should remain at home, there shouldn't be any gatherings and police should be in-charge of the street. Instead, the police are missing and people are swarming through the capital Cairo. The situation is made worse by opportunistic looters. Several people in Egypt are reporting that shopkeepers are gathering relatives and friends to protect their businesses from looters in isolated areas of the city.

Does that make sense?

0307 GMT: And now the mother of all disclosures?

The Daily Telegraph quotes a Wikileaks diplomatic dispatch with the following story:

The American Embassy in Cairo helped a young dissident attend a US-sponsored summit for activists in New York, while working to keep his identity secret from Egyptian state police.

On his return to Cairo in December 2008, the activist told US diplomats that an alliance of opposition groups had drawn up a plan to overthrow President Hosni Mubarak and install a democratic government in 2011.

Read the full story on the Daily Telegraph here.

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Egypt (and Beyond) LiveBlog: The Day After The "Day of Revolution"

0005 GMT: The situation in Suez has become further tense. Reports coming in from Egypt suggest that the city has effectively been cut-off from the rest of the country. Landlines, cell phones and internet are down. People continue to protest in the city and there have been sporadic reports of clashes, injuries and at least 2 deaths which cannot be confirmed yet.

0002 GMT: RNN reports that 5,000 protesters are holding a sit-in in El-Geish Street in Suez. 

0000 GMT: Egyptian blogger and activist Rowand Helmii, who has been arrested by police on her way home, has her cell phone and is tweeting from inside a police car in Cairo. 

I was arrested around ( 15 mayo ) if it helps I was heading home;#jan25

@Noor1Noor2 I have no idea what my exact location is but here is my full name rowand sameh hassan mohammed helmii

Thank you guys so much for all the support don't worry I'll get out in a bit won't be late and gonna be at the protest tomorrow ;) :) #jan25

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Turkey Analysis: The "Extraordinary" Davutoglu and Ankara's New Rules For Foreign Affairs (Traub)

In a world that the U.S. no longer dominates as it once did, President Barack Obama has sought to forge strong relations with rising powers like India and Brazil. Turkey, however, is the one rising power that is located in the danger zone of the Middle East; it’s no coincidence that Obama chose to include Turkey in his first overseas trip and spoke glowingly of the “model partnership” between the two countries. This fits perfectly with Turkey’s ambition to be a global as well as a regional player.

And yet, despite all the mutual interests, and all of Davutoglu’s energy and innovation, something has gone very wrong over the last year. The Turks, led by Davutoglu, have embarked on diplomatic ventures with Israel and Iran, America’s foremost ally and its greatest adversary in the region, that have left officials and political leaders in Washington fuming. Obama administration officials are no longer sure whose side Turkey is on.

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Turkey Analysis: Ankara Seizes Political Leadership over Lebanon

Ankara's "zero problem with neighbours" policy continues as Hezbollah and its politcal allies walked away from the Lebanese government last week. On Friday, former Lebanese Prime Minister Saad al-Hariri was in Ankara, and the visit was followed by a call by Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan's for Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to offer cooperation. Erdogan said, "There is a need for the parties to act with full responsibility and an understanding that keeps Lebanon’s common interests above any sort of [political] consideration."

Ankara, in the role of "firefighter" on the Lebanese crisis, is pursuing its grand strategy of centring itself in regional discussions not only as a "city planner" but as a global architect.

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Syria Transcript: US Sends Ambassador so Damascus Can Challenge Hezbollah

On Saturday, State Department spokesman Philip J. Crowley briefed the press on the appointment of Robert Ford as the ambassador to Syria. His explanation of the decision was far from consistent. If the matter  has nothing to do with "placing ambassadors in countries with which Washington has significant disagreements", why is there no ambassador to Tehran or an attempt to build official dialogue with Hamas-ruled Gaza? Why just Damascus?

The answer? Washington wants to assign "a constructive role" to Syria, such as dealing with the "Hezbollah concern" in Lebanon and in the region.

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Israel Analysis: Barak v. Netanyahu as Elections Overtake Peace Talks

With elections looming, Israel's domestic politics is heating up. Initially, most parties were turning the ultra-orthodox front of Eli Yishai (Shas) and Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman (Yisrael Beiteinu) into a dartboard, but attention is now on Labour Party leader and Minister of Defense Ehud Barak.

Barak has raised the stakes by putting the current approach of his own Government on the spot. In response, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has repeated that the Palestinian Authority is the only party responsible for the deadlock of the peace process. 

The fight is spilling into sharp allegations in the media. The State Department denied claims that the US Administration was furious with Barak for misleading them regarding his role in the peace process, but Haaretz sources insist that Washington is still "disappointed" with Barak.

This, however, may rebound to the benefit of the Minister of Defense.  Any stigma on Barak cannot be equal to that placed upon the Netanyahu Government if there is no move, even a token one, towards a resumption of talks.

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Syria Analysis: A New American Approach?

Last Wednesday, President Barak Obama appointed Robert Ford as the first U.S. ambassador to Syria since 2005. Since Ford is a recess appointment, he can serve only until the end of the next session of Congress, which will likely be in December 2011.

On Sunday, the Kuwaiti al-Rai newspaper reported that Washington has been in secret contact with Syrian officials in the hope for reaching a comprehensive peace agreement between Israel and Damascus. Sources quoted Obama adviser Dennis Ross as saying that "Syria is ready to move away from Iran and reduce relations with Hezbollah and Hamas, and work with the United States in the fight against terrorism".

If this is true, then is the White House trying to undertake the new track as an alternative to the deadlocked Israeli-Palestinian peace process? The approach is not new --- this has been evaluated since Obama became President --- but it never reached the top of the agenda.

So the Administration may now be using Damascus to bring fresh blood to the "hopeless Middle East", amidst an analysis that a new Middle East war could emerge if Obama cannot break the deadlock between Israelis and Palestinians. But will Washington be ready to persist with the new approach?

WikiLeaks: Israel Bombed Syria Nuclear Reactor in 2007 (YNet)

A confidential cable sent on April 25, 2008 by then-US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice to State Department representatives worldwide states that "on September 6 2007, Israel destroyed the nuclear reactor built by Syria secretly, apparently with North Korea's help."

The document is in fact a first official and detailed confirmation of the attack, starting with the intelligence collected before the strike, the cooperation between Israel and the United States, the troubling and harsh conclusions shared by both countries, the Israeli government's decision to bomb Syria and the fear that President Bashar Assad would launch a war in response.

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