Iran and Syria Audio Feature: Why Tehran's Conference "Stunt" Means Little --- Scott Lucas with Monocle 24

Iran Hosts Peace Conference While Aleppo Rebels... by NewsLook

Canadian Broadcasting Corporation's report on the Iran conference on Syria

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In a wide-ranging interview with Monocle 24's The Daily last night, I began by discussing Iran's "international conference" on Syria on Thursday, assessing the politics of the move and what comes next.

The interview also considered Israel's own stunt this week, with Minister of Defense Ehud Barak falsely claiming that a new US National Intelligence Estimate had found Iran was close to producing nuclear weapons.

But the take-away line may be at the end of the discussion. My reply to the question, "What can the world do to halt the instability in Syria?" --- "Nothing."

The conversation begins at the 1:12.02 mark.

Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: The Battle for Aleppo Continues

See also Syria Analysis: Recognising A War of Attrition
Syria Audio Feature: Assessing the Latest in Aleppo and Beyond --- Scott Lucas with Monocle 24
Thursday's Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: The Insurgents Hold Out in Aleppo

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2022 GMT: Syria. The Local Coordination Committees report that 150 people have been killed today by security forces. Seventy-five of the deaths were in Aleppo, with 45 "unidentified corpses" found in the Salah Ed Dine district.

2012 GMT: Syria. The demonstration in Kafromeh in Idlib Province today:

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The Latest from Iran (10 August): The Regime Fights Isolation

On the right in Persian, “From Iran to Syria, the People’s Right: Peace, Freedom"; on the left in Arabic, “From Syria to Iran, the People’s Right: Peace, Freedom" (poster by Iranian activist Kamyar Behrang)

See also Iran Snap Analysis: So There Was This Conference on Syria in Tehran....
The Latest from Iran (9 August): The Syrian Front

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2000 GMT: Energy Watch. Confirmation of another foreign company's withdrawal from development of Iran's oil and gas resources, as Deputy Oil Minister Alireza Zeighami said the contract with the Malaysian SKS Company for the implementation of the Shiraz Pars Refinery project has been revoked.

Zeighami gave the formulaic statement that the annulment was due to the firm’s repeated delays and failure to start the construction and financing of the project, adding that Iranian contractors will now take over the construction of the refinery.

In the last years, Italian, French, Dutch, Russian, and Chinese companies have all withdrawn from oil and gas projects amid sanctions and other economic constraints, with Iran formally declaring that the firms had failed to fulfil obligations.

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Iran Snap Analysis: So There Was This Conference on Syria in Tehran....

Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi talks to the press after Thursday's conference on Syria

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In the end, the regime persuaded 28 countries to attend Thursday's hastily-called conference on Syria. Almost all sent their Ambassadors or other diplomats from their Embassies in Tehran, with only three --- neighbouring Iraq and Pakistan and not-so-neighbouring Zimbabwe --- sending Foreign Ministers. Eight Arab States were present; those who stayed away included Saudi Arabia and Lebanon. Russia, albeit with grumbling about the rushed preparations, despatched an official, but Turkey, which pointedly slapped down Tehran on Tuesday, did not.

Iranian media posted a statement which was supposedly agreed by the representatives, with a call for talks and despatch of humanitarian aid, affirmation of the six-point Annan Plan, and a proposed three-month cease-fire beginning next week.

None of that is likely to have any effect on the Syrian crisis, but Tehran's strategy is geared more to presentation. Shut out of other international discussions and facing isolation in the Middle East, the Islamic Republic wants to present itself as the valiant bearer of the Annan Plan, now that the United Nations process is dormant.

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Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: The Insurgents Hold Out in Aleppo

A demonstration last night in Nile Street in Aleppo in Syria

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1944 GMT: Syria. Yesterday we posted reports that Kafranbel, a town in Idlib made famous for its witty protest signs made in English, was under heavy attack by regime forces (map). At the end of the day, there was little news beyond the report that many shells had fallen and many civilians were injured.

Previous regime incursions into Idlib have ended very poorly, with many destroyed tanks, killed soldiers, and even with large amounts of defectors and armored vehicles falling into the hands of the Free Syrian Army. From the looks of this fight, it appeared different, as if the military were focusing on shelling the city from afar, and were committing far more forces to the fight than before.

However, history repeats itself. News broke today that the FSA had inflicted heavy losses yesterday. One video claimed to show that the FSA had destroyed an armored vehicle and a hospital that had been occupied by the military. Those victories were only the tip of the iceberg. Many videos are emerging, each matching a series of separate activist reports, that show a large amount of destroyed military equipment after heavy battles today:

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Syria Audio Feature: Assessing the Latest in Aleppo and Beyond --- Scott Lucas with Monocle 24

Insurgents in the Salah Ed Dine district of Aleppo today:

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I joined Monocle 24's The Briefing just after noon, British time, to assess the latest situation in Aleppo.

Although the situation is still in flux, I think the take-away line holds up: "The longer it takes the regime to retake the country's largest city, the greater the erosion of authority."

There is also discussion beyond the military situation, with consideration of the effect of the economic squeeze on the Assad regime and a compare-and-contrast with the example of Libya 2011.

The conversation begins at the 30:00 mark.

The Latest from Iran (9 August): The Syrian Front

The 48 abducted Iranians in Syria

See also Iran Snap Analysis: Tehran Recognises Syrian Opposition --- 4 Possible Explanations
Iran Opinion: A Response to Foreign Minister Salehi's "Wisdom and Providence" on Syria
The Latest from Iran (8 August): A Short Break for the Olympics

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1745 GMT: Foreign Affairs Watch (Syrian Front). Representatives of the 28 countries attending the Tehran conference have issued a statement "expressing support to the legitimate demands of the Syrian people to carry out reforms in order to build democracy and promote all-out political partnership of different parties and opposition groups to exercise their right to run their own country, in a peaceful manner and calm atmosphere and without any foreign intervention".

The delegates, who included three Foreign Ministers and diplomats from eight Arab countries, expressed support for the six-point Annan Plan, even though it is now effectively dormant, and called for delivery of humanitarian aid. They also endorsed an Iranian call for a three-month cease-fire from the start of the religious occasion of Eid al-Fitr on 19 August.

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Iran Opinion: A Response to Foreign Minister Salehi's "Wisdom and Providence" on Syria

Ali Akbar Salehi with Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet DavutogluWhen an opinion piece begins with "We humans...", it is meant to appeal to our collective sense of the values we hold dear. But when the writer is Iranian Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi, it may be seen more as an attempt to mask the inhumane face of the regime whom the author is serving. 

When I read Salehi's seemingly innocent and well-meaning comments in The Washington Post, offering the Islamic Republic's assistance in solving the crisis Syria, my first thought was: How dare you?

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Iran Snap Analysis: Tehran Recognises Syrian Opposition --- 4 Possible Explanations

Something quite curious --- and possibly significant --- happened last night. The Iranian leadership, having pursued the crushing of dissent within the Islamic Republic, having given full backing to the Assad's regime campaign to stamp out resistance, suddenly recognised the legitimacy of Syrian opposition.

What is the explanation? There are four possibilities, which are not mutually exclusive....

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Egypt, Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: Airstrikes in Sinai Kill 20

Al Jazeera English reports from a hospital in al-Atareb in Aleppo Province, Syria

See also Tuesday's Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: A Crumbling Regime?
Syria Analysis: The Local Coordination Committees Issue a "Code of Conduct" for Free Syrian Army
Iran Snap Analysis: Scrambling Over Syria

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2025 GMT: Syria. Is Iran also planning for a Syria without Assad? EA's Scott Lucas thinks so, and he's written an analysis that suggests that the Iranian government is strengthening ties with Lebanon, repairing ties with Turkey, and even building bridges with Saudi Arabia --- all to make sure that if the Assad regime falls, Tehran is buffered against the shock.

Then there is this piece of news in our Iran Live Coverage:

Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi has published a statement "announc[ing] Iran’s readiness to host a meeting of countries committed to immediately implementing these steps in hopes of ending the violence...[and] reiterat[ing] our willingness to facilitate talks between the Syrian government and the opposition and to host such a dialogue".

That is not new --- Salehi has said this on several occasions in recent weeks. What is new is the outlet: an opinion piece in the Washington Post.

And what is even more distinctive is Salehi's recognition --- the first I can recall from a high-ranking Iranian official --- of the legitimacy of protest against the Syrian regime:

"When the Islamic Awakening — also known as the Arab Spring — began in December 2010, we all saw people rising up to claim their rights. We have witnessed the emergence of civic movements demanding freedom, democracy, dignity and self-determination.

"We in Tehran have watched these developments with delight. After all, a civic movement demanding the same things that many Arabs want today is what led to the emergence of our Islamic Republic in 1979. During the past three decades, Iran has consistently underlined that it is the duty of all governments to respect their people’s demands. We have maintained this position as the Islamic Awakening has unfolded."

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