Iran Snap Analysis: Scrambling Over Syria

Cartoon: Nikahang KowsarIran, unsettled by the increasing difficulties for the Syrian regime, is trying to buttress its position in a post-Assad future. If there is to be a "transitional government" in Damascus, or even prolonged uncertainty and conflict, then Iran cannot afford an erosion of its position in neighbouring countries. So ties with Lebanon will be reinforced, if possible, and relations with Turkey will not be allowed to collapse into a real fight beyond the rhetorical bluster.

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Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: A Crumbling Regime?

See also Syria 1st-Hand: Deaths by the Schoolhouse --- Awaiting Regime Attack in Aleppo
Syria 1st-Hand: Fleeing Aleppo
Syria Snap Analysis: What the Prime Minister's Defection Might Say About State of the Conflict
Monday's Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: Rumour and Reality in Aleppo

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2038 GMT: Syria. Zabadani, northwest of Damascus (map), has been shelled every day for weeks, mostly starting at around sundown each day, the time when people break their fasts, the time when people are most vulnerable. Today, the LCC has a desperate claim:

Intense shelling by artillery, tanks, and rocket launchers in Housh area of the city. More than 50 martyrs have been reported thus far.

However, there appears as though there has been a translation issue. Fares Mohamed, with the LCC in Zabadani, says that 50 shells have fallen, rather than there being 50 martyrs.

This is breaking news, so sources are scarce, but two disturbing (and unverified) videos claim to show the explosions. It's night, making the videos even harder to verify, but Fares Mohamed says that the video appears to have been taken in Zabadani:

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Syria 1st-Hand: Deaths by the Schoolhouse --- Awaiting Regime Attack in Aleppo (Chulov)

Members of the Free Syrian Army in Salaheddin in Aleppo on Monday

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The attack came just after 2pm on Monday; two Soviet era Mig fighter jets swept in low from the west, then banked and made a run at the schoolhouse. The impact of the bombs was devastating on the two homes they struck. Fabricated concrete spilled across the street and a nine-year-old girl lay dismembered in the ruins.

The first stronghold established by the Free Syrian Army (FSA) in the war-torn city of Aleppo had been hit by regime jets, in an attack that failed to take out the rebel leadership but instead killed nine members of a family in a nearby house.

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Syria 1st-Hand: Fleeing Aleppo (Hanano)

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During the brief phone calls we could make when landlines were working, my mother asked my father to do seemingly mundane - yet strange - tasks: leave the curtains open but lock the balcony doors; move furniture away from the chandeliers. Fragile objects were wrapped and placed on the floor in case of shelling; doors barricaded in case of looting; valuables moved elsewhere. The house was slowly stripped of what made it a home, until the moment arrived when it was stripped of its final inhabitant.

Choosing to leave was tainted with guilt; guilt that our family was lucky, that we were the ones who could leave, the ones who had another country to call home and the ones who had not lost a relative yet. So we were ashamed to speak of trivial, material things. But we did speak of them, because it's our home.

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Syria Snap Analysis: What the Prime Minister's Defection Might Say About State of the Conflict

Riyad HijabOne of the most striking claims over Prime Minister Riyad Hijab's defection is that the Assad regime not only picked Hijab to help lead it out of crisis but also threatened him with death. This may be an assertion to curry favour with the opposition, but if it is true, this means that President Assad really does not have anyone he can trust or turn to without fear of consequences. It could mean that the only reason there are not more defections is fear, but --- with the decision of Hijab and his brothers to leave Syria --- it is a fear that is slipping.

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Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: Rumour and Reality in Aleppo

2055 GMT: Syria. Fares Mohamed, who is associated with the Local Coordinating Committees, has sent us a message that Zabadani, northwest of Damascus (map), has been heavily shelled today. According to Mohamed, 2/3rds of the population has fled, the rest are trapped, the humanitarian situation is growing desperate, and the shells fall every day.

Still, even for a population used to shelling, the videos posted today from neighboring areas show an intense barrage.

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Syria Feature: Finding a Hip-Hop Voice Amid the Conflict (Mohajer/Rajput)

LaTlatehLaTlateh is a Damascus-based three-piece hip-hop outfit comprising Al Sayyed Darwish, Watar and Abu Koulthoum. They perform alongside producer Dab Snakkr, whose music documents the day-to-day struggle of the Syrian uprising.

"The situation in Syria is what motivates us to write. How can we sit by and watch all the pain and suffering that is going on around us and not speak out?"

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Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: Planning for Life After Assad

An 8-minute drive through "liberated" parts of Aleppo, Syria's largest city, on Friday --- "Quiet but devastated streets. Tons of garbage. And a long bread queue that I was told was actually short --- they get much longer than this later in the day"

See also Syria Feature: US Plans for a Post-Assad Country
Saturday's Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: Has the Regime Lost Aleppo?

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2007 GMT: Egypt. Security officials have said at least 15 Egyptian policemen have been killed and seven wounded in an attack on a police station in north Sinai on the border with Israel.

Egyptian state television said an Islamist group was responsible but did not give details.

A border police patrol was reportedly breaking their fast when they were ambushed by armed men.

A senior security official said the attackers seized an armoured vehicle before driving away.

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Syria Feature: US Plans for a Post-Assad Country (Myers/Shanker)

Steven Heydemann of the US Institute of Peace, involved with the Obama Administration's manoeuvres for a post-Assad Syria, on the US Public Broadcasting Service, 18 July 2012

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“The main question we’re looking at is how it all plays out after the Assad regime collapses,” one American official said. “Chapter 1 is he’s gone. Chapter 2 is the post-Assad transition, and initial efforts at stabilization. Chapter 3 is completely unknown, and therefore more than a little scary.”

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Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: Has the Regime Lost Aleppo?

View Syria - 2012 August 3 - EA Worldview in a larger map

A map showing insurgent control of areas in northern Syria

See also Syria Feature: The Files Exposing the Regime's Spies
UAE Feature: Nervous Leaders Crack Down on Dissidents
Friday's Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: Annan Quits, The Mass Killings Do Not

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2152 GMT: Syria. The Local Coordination Committees claim that 125 people died at the hands of security forces today, including 44 in Damascus and its suburbs, 20 martyrs in Deir Ez Zor Province, and 19 in Aleppo Province.

2130 GMT: Bahrain. A demonstration in Barbar tonight calling for freedom for activist Nabeel Rajab and other political prisoners:

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