Syria Analysis: Why the Regime Could Lose Aleppo

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A scenario. The regime will continue to fight for control of the supply lines that run from Damascus to Homs, Hama, Idlib, and Aleppo. As it does so, it will lose more territory to the north and east of Aleppo. The vice will eventually close on the city, and it will fall to the FSA.

And if Aleppo falls, this war is over. Assad will then lose all of Idlib Province --- which has in effect already happened --- then Hama, then Homs.

In short, unless there is a surprising change in the course of this fight, every indication is that the President Assad cannot win this war.

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Syria Snapshot: As Refugees Surge, Jordan Turns Some Away (Marrouch)

Syrian Family in Jordan (Photo: Ned Colt/IRC)Jordan has been praised for welcoming tens of thousands of fleeing Syrians. The United Nations refugee agency has registered roughly 35,000 Syrian refugees in Jordan, but there are reported to be far more Syrian refugees along its borders, upward of 140,000 people. The latest round of violence has sent thousands more Syrians streaming to the Jordanian border, seeking help.

Jordan has agreed to create camps to house the swelling numbers of refugees, including one camp already in the works in northern Jordan that could hold up to 113,000 people. But the crisis seems to have tested Jordanian officials' patience, as Syrians report being turned away.

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Syria Audio Feature: "Assad May Be Slipping from Power" --- Scott Lucas with the BBC

Speaking at length with BBC West Midlands this morning, I reviewed latest developments in Syria. Parallelling our Live Coverage today, I argued, "It's not just Damascus" to assert that the political and military challenge to President Assad is growing and constricting the power of the regime.

The discussion also considered nature of the Syrian opposition and the question of whether the "West" should intervene in the crisis.

The item starts at the 1:05.22 mark.

The Latest from Iran (21 July): Support the Syrian Regime, Support Your Leader

1730 GMT: Tough Talk of the Day. Reza Taghavi, the head of the Friday Prayer Leaders' Policymaking Council, has declared, "Iran is now capable of enriching uranium at a 20-percent level, but if [other countries] continue their pressure, we will increase enrichment levels to 56 percent."

1718 GMT: Chicken Watch. Etedaal satirises the current tension over the rising price of chicken --- it envisages the Central Bank announcing four- and six-month "pre-sales" of chicken, with prices to be fixed on a weekly basis.

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Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: The Story is Beyond Damascus

Mural on a wall in Aleppo, Syria: "Revolution is A Female"

See also Syria Audio Feature: "Assad May Be Slipping from Power" --- Scott Lucas with the BBC
Syria Revealed: The Quiet Planning for a Country After Assad
Sudan Feature: Can Activists Maintain Hope Amid Waning Protests?
Friday's Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: 217 Die Amid Question, "Where's Bashar?"

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2113 GMT: Syria. The Local Coordination Committees of Syria claims that 131 people, including 18 defectors and 11 children, have been killed by security forces today.

2051 GMT: Syria. A large anti-regime demonstration tonight in central Aleppo:

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Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: 217 Die Amid Question, "Where's Bashar?"

Insurgents take over a post on the Turkish border on Thursday

See also Syria Opinion: "Insurgency, Not Diplomacy, Will End This Conflict"
Syria Feature: Alawites Flee to the Coast
Thursday's Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: The Regime is Shocked and Awed

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2030 GMT: Syria. At least initially, the greatest threat that the Syrian crisis poses to the region has nothing to do with terrorism or chemical weapons or cross-border firefights, but has everything to do with the massive amounts of refugees flooding some countries, particularly Turkey and Lebanon, but also Iraq and Jordan. As fighting is heating up in Damascus, the amount of refugees in Lebanon has rapidly risen to an extraordinary number:

Between 8,500 and 30,000 Syrians have crossed into Lebanon in the last 48 hours, an agency spokeswoman, Melissa Fleming, said at a news briefing in Geneva. The new flood adds to an exodus of more than 112,000 who have already registered as refugees in Lebanon, Turkey, Iraq and Jordan, and many thousands more who have fled but not registered. United Nations relief agencies say three-quarters of them are women and children, often arriving in a desperate state with no more than the clothes they are wearing. Internally, as many as a million people have been displaced, according to the Syrian Arab Red Crescent.

1942 GMT: Syria. The Free Syrian Army has engaged the Assad military in heavy fighting in the city of Zabadani, northwest of Damascus (map), for the second day in a row today...

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Syria Opinion: "Insurgency, Not Diplomacy, Will End This Conflict"

The Kurdish flag is raised in Amouda in northeast Syria after the opposition took control of the town

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I was struck at how today's headlines had missed the boat. Assad's military was shelling Damascus because it had lost control of large swathes of the capital city - THAT was the headline. The UN story is a distraction for the same reason: it misses the big picture.

That big picture? It is now a near-certainty, whether we like it or not, that insurgency rather than diplomacy will end this conflict. The victories of the Free Syrian Army, and/or their defeats, will determine the course of this contest and how long it will take.

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Syria Feature: Alawites Flee to the Coast (Paul)

TartusOn a recent Sunday afternoon, the Syrian port city of Tartus buzzed in the summer heat. Car showrooms displayed lines of new vehicles. Markets full of clothes, furniture, and household knicknacks bustled with customers. Clouds of nargileh smoke wafted from hookah pipes at the see-and-be-seen restaurants lining sandy Mediterranean beaches. Yachts bobbed indifferently in the port.

This Middle Eastern haven, however, lies just 60 miles west of Homs, the battle-broken city that is the center of gravity in the civil war that has shattered Syria, killing more than 16,000 people and displacing a quarter of a million more. Tartus, though, has become a refuge for the country's minority Alawi Shiite population. "As an Alawi, I don't really care about Bashar al-Assad," says 30-year-old Majed, referring to Syria's president, who is also Alawi. "The only thing that concerns me is security."

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Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: The Regime is Shocked and Awed

Protesters in Hama tonight

See also UAE Interview: The Latest Crackdown on Human Rights Activists
Syria Analysis: The Narrow Intelligence of US Intelligence Services
Syria Audio Special: The Importance of the Damascus Bomb --- Scott Lucas with Monocle 24
Turkey Analysis: Discussions over Syria in Moscow --- What Do They Mean?
Wednesday's Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: UN Talks, Damascus Fights

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2031 GMT: Syria. As the fight for territory heats up, so too will Assad's use of artillery and mortars to dislodge insurgents. But most of the casualties from these events are actually civilians.

Zabadani, northwest of Damascus (map), is a perfect example. As battles rage elsewhere in the city, this shell falls on a residential neighborhood:

2020 GMT: Syria. Earlier today, the CFDPC posted this report, a summary of stories it has received from its contacts in Damascus:

The bombardment is still on for the 5th day in a row, targeting the districts of Damascus more fiercely than ever. The bombardment is the strongest on Al Qaboun and Al Meedan districts as regime's militias are using tanks and helicopters and are attempting to invade the districts.

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Syria Analysis: The Narrow Intelligence of US Intelligence Services

US Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta warns of the presence of Al Qa'eda in Syria

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Like all of us, the CIA has been caught off-guard by the pace of events in Syria. The advance of insurgents in parts of the country might have been expected, but suddenly the battle was in Damascus. Then came Wednesday's surprise: the bomb that decimated the top ranks of the Assad regime.

So what does a responsible intelligence service do? It launches a public-relations campaign.

The CIA got in touch with its long-time if unofficial Press Secretary, David Ignatius of The Washington Post, and the Obama Administration also fed lines to Helene Cooper of The New York Times. The message? Ignatius declares, "President Obama is seeking a 'managed transition' in Syria with the twin goals of removing President Bashar al-Assad as soon as possible and doing so without the evaporation of the authority of the Syrian state."

Using Ignatius and Cooper's transcripts, what are the CIA's priorities in that managed transition?

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