Syria Audio Special: The Importance of the Damascus Bomb --- Scott Lucas with Monocle 24

Smoke rising from Damascus this morning

---

I spoke with Monocle 24's Midori House this evening about the Damascus bombing and other events across Syria --- the conversation ranged from the impact upon President Assad to the impact upon the Syrian people. Take-away line, echoing EA's James Miller, "Beyond the bomb, the significance is in the damage to confidence in the regime."

To get to the discussion, click on the Midori House site and press Play for 18 July. The item begins at 6:43, with my contribution starting from 9:42.

Turkey Analysis: Discussions over Syria in Moscow --- What Do They Mean?

President Putin & Prime Minister ErdoganTurkey's link with Moscow is elevated if Russia is keen on adapting a new strategy that gives up on Assad and increase its pressure for a transitional government as agreed in Geneva in the short-term. As long as the Russian interest in Syria as a powerful bargaining chip vis-a-vis NATO is protected, Moscow is ready to give credibility to Ankara.

Click to read more ...

Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: UN Talks, Damascus Fights

1958 GMT: Syria. Defections have been occurring at a faster and faster pace, but today there were reports that a relative trickle, perhaps a hundred ot a few hundred soldiers every week, may have finnaly reached flood-stage, with unconfirmed reports that hundreds of fighters jumped ship.

There are reports that a single new brigade of Free Syrian Army soldiers, the "Unification Brigade" claiming to be made up of soldiers from many different backgrounds, contained more than 100 soldiers, all of whom appear to be heavily armed, and that those soldiers are also equipped with multiple vehicles armed with heavy machine guns and anti-aircraft weapons.

Massive Brigade of the FSA formed in #Aleppo - "Unification Brigade" - youtube.com/watch?v=AGIky5… #Syria

— Sami al-Hamwi (@HamaEcho) July 18, 2012

Click to read more ...

Syria Analysis: It's Not Quite "The Battle for Damascus"...But It's An Important Fight

Fighting has been now raging in neighbourhoods of Damascus for more than three days. Even a quick look at an interactive map of the fighting, posted on Monday, established that the regime has a serious challenge on its hands, as it has been unable to dislodge insurgent fighters from the southern part of the capital:

View Syria - 2012 July 16 - EA Worldview in a larger map

EA's in-depth assessment of the Free Syrian Army, posted last Wednesday, assessed that the regime is now weak enough that it is vulnerable to a sudden takeover of the capital, for example through a series of surprise insurgent attacks. So is this the Battle for Damascus?

Click to read more ...

Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: Fighting Across the Country

A 9-minute video of street fighters in the Midan section of Damascus on Monday

See also Syria Analysis: It's Not Quite "The Battle for Damascus"...But It's An Important Fight
Bahrain Snapshot: The Curious Tale of The American and $11 Million in Cash --- What Does It Mean?
Monday's Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: Fighting in Damascus

---

1935 GMT: Syria. A map of Damascus, a snap shot posted by the Syrian Uprising 2011 Information Centre:

click for larger image

A snapshot of what is happening in Damascus now. The modern city centre is marked in Green. Strong opposition areas where clashes are reported are marked in Red. Military bases are marked as trucks, intelligence bases as question marks while flags show important government building such as parliament, ministries and Ba'ath Party buildings.

The map is visually striking, but if we were to make our own, it would show an even stronger presence of opposition fighters and popular support in some of those blank areas. Some of the area between the green and the eastern red is also a conflict zone, but the presence of military soldiers and armored vehicles has kept the peace so far today. Also, some of the areas northeast of the green are also heavily embattled. Though these areas are not "opposition strongholds" per se, just because they have not been filled in does not mean that the regime has significant there. By the same token, none of the areas in red are in opposition control, but they have a large presence of opposition fighters, and popular support for the opposition in many of these areas is overwhelming.

Click to read more ...

Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: Fighting in Damascus

View Syria - 2012 July 16 - EA Worldview in a larger map

An Interactive map of today's events. Click on the location to see a link to our news entry, or click on the link above to open the map in a larger window

See also Syria Audio Feature: "Gradually The Regime is Losing Control" --- Scott Lucas with Monocle 24
Bahrain Feature: The Underground Network of Doctors
Turkey Analysis: Syria and Barzani Unsettle Ankara's Official Policy on Kurdistan
Bahrain Feature: The Stalling of Economic Reforms
Sunday's Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: "Battle" or "Massacre" in Tremseh?

---

2020 GMT: Syria. The LCC reports that 84 people have been killed today, including civilians and Free Syrian Army soldiers:

In Hama there were 29 martyrs, 20 in Homs, 9 in Damascus, 8 in Aleppo, 8 in Daraa, 4 in Deir Ezzor, 3 in Idlib and 3 in Damascus Suburbs.

The number may be surprising for some readers, as the amount killed in Damascus appears to be extremely low considering the scale of the fighting today. There are a few possible reasons for this. First, and perhaps most importantly, the fighting did not seem to progress. Though it was widespread, the FSA did not capture any significant territory, and the security forces did not dislodge any FSA positions. Though the FSA didn't necessarily hold ground, and the battle lines in some areas were fluid, the FSA was not directly challenged by the regime.

However, the numbers simply reflect that while the battles in Damascus are relatively new, the battles in Hama, Homs, Aleppo, Idlib, Daraa, and Deir Ez Zor are raging. While any one day may post a higher or lower casualty figure, in parts of the country "civil war" isn't a designation from the Red Cross, it's now a familiar reality.

However, with reports of conflict continuing well into the night in Damascus, that number may still rise. If there are dead or injured too close to battle, those numbers may not be released for some time.

Tomorrow will likely see a continuation of some of this fighting, so stay tuned.

Click to read more ...

Syria Audio Feature: "Gradually The Regime is Losing Control" --- Scott Lucas with Monocle 24

I had a lengthy, wide-ranging discussion with Monocle 24 this morning about latest developments in Syria, including fighting across the country,  last Thursday's mass killing in Tremseh, and diplomatic manoeuvres and facades.

To get to the interview, launch "The Globalist" page, click on the programme for 16 July, and go to 1:02.20.

Turkey Analysis: Syria and Barzani Unsettle Ankara's Official Policy on Kurdistan

Prime Minister ErdoganThe Erdogan government will try to rely on a "security-first" agenda to challenge both the opposition parties and the PKK, at the same time promoting its synthesis of nationalism and Islam.

However, Ankara now has to review its calculation that playing the game with more players and more cards would turn the situation to its advantage. Both Iraqi Kurdish leader Barzani's involvement and the changing Syrian situation pose a question: what will Erdogan do if an autonomous Kurdish region is declared not only in Syria but in southeastern Turkey?

Click to read more ...

Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: "Battle" or "Massacre" in Tremseh?

UN observers move through Tremseh

See also Syria 1st-Hand: "There is Killing Everywhere in Homs"
Saudi Arabia Feature: Dissent is Alive...On Social Media & Behind Closed Doors
Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: Inaction is a "Licence for Further Massacres"

---

2115 GMT: Syria. Back from an extended Sunday break to find EA sources reporting clashes in Damascus neighbourhoods, including Kafarsouseh, Tadamon, Qabir Atika, and the central area.

Reuters also has witness reports testifying to fighting.

The Local Coordination Committees of Syria says 72 people have been killed today, including four in the capital and 11 in the Damascus suburbs.

A funeral earlier today in the Yabroud section of Damascus:

Click to read more ...

Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: Inaction is a "Licence for Further Massacres"

Protesters in Yarmouk Refugee Camp in Damascus tear down a poster of President Assad --- 13 refugees reportedly were slain on Friday by Syrian security forces

See also Bahrain Opinion: The Regime's Propaganda Machine is Cranked Up to Eleven
Friday's Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: A New "Massacre"?

---

2039 GMT: Syria. Journalist Martin Chulov adds this important note to his published article on the mass killing in Tremseh (see 2009 GMT):

Spoke to 2 #Tremseh residents present during massacre. They said some attacking soldiers tried to defect & were executed #Syria

— Martin Chulov (@martinchulov) July 14, 2012

2009 GMT: Syria. A far different account by Martin Chulov of The Guardian than that in The New York Times (see 1905 GMT) about Thursday's mass killing in Tremseh....

Click to read more ...