US Elections Analysis: The "Fiscal Cliff" and the Races for the New Congress

A Democratic ad criticises Minnesota Republican Chip Cravaack for his opposition to President Obama's health care plan

See also US Elections Video: Obama or Romney? And Does It Make Any Difference? --- "Seminar" at the University of Birmingham

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The first two debates between President Obama and Mitt Romney have been political theatre at its most dramatic –-- whether a comedy or a tragedy depends on the audience you ask --- but their dominance of the headline has obscured an answer to the most important question of this election year.

Will the next p#President, whoever he is, be able to work with the newly-elected Congress and find a legislative solution to the problems he will face immediately upon taking office?

The “fiscal cliff”, and America's headlong rush over it, approaches; however, amidst the daily controversies over funding for Big Bird and Mitt Romney's “binders full of women”, neither candidate has addressed how he will work with a partisan Congress to avoid the scheduled tax rises and spending cuts that will not only plunge the American economy into another recession but exacerbate the economic slowdown around the globe.

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US Elections Video: Obama or Romney? And Does It Make Any Difference? --- "Seminar" at the University of Birmingham

On Wednesday, I joined Dr Adam Quinn and Ph.D. candidate Jonna Nyman to discuss the state of the US Presidential election and what lay ahead for domestic and foreign policy over the next four years.

While all of us agreed that an Obama victory was likely, the discussion of the issues at home and abroad led to some notable expressions of concern, from the threat to health care in the US to conflicts over social issues to a possible war with Iran:

US Politics Analysis: Obama Rebounds, Romney Stumbles

See also US Politics Video: The 2nd Obama-Romney Debate
EA Video Analysis: How to Use American Deaths to Win a Presidential Election

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EA's Scott Lucas and Lee Haddigan write for The Hill

Forget policy and details. Last night's presidential town hall debate at Hofstra University in New York was about each candidate's acting in the political theatre. Could President Obama atone for his lackluster display in the first debate without appearing too aggressive? Could Mitt Romney maintain the aura from the first debate in Denver of an authentic presidential alternative?

We had answers within the 90 minutes.“Can Obama Rebound?” is now the question of the past. “Can Romney Re-surge?” takes over.

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EA Video Analysis: How to Use American Deaths to Win a Presidential Election

See also US Politics Video: The 2nd Obama-Romney Debate

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As details emerge of the death of four Americans, including US Ambassador to Libya Chris Stevens, in an attack on 11 September on the American Consulate in Benghazi, six minutes on why Mitt Romney's focus on the issue is political manipulation rather than a contribution to "security" and US foreign policy....

US Politics Video: The 2nd Obama-Romney Debate

Lee Haddigan and I will be posting a special analysis later today of the Town Hall Meeting debate between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney.

In the meantime, here is the full 90 minutes. A transcript is available via The Washington Post.

US Politics Audio: Cuban Missile Crisis 1962, Presidential Campaign 2012 --- Scott Lucas with the BBC

I spoke with BBC Radio West Midlands this afternoon, on the 50th anniversary of the start of the Cuban Missile Crisis, about the episode and what lessons it might offer for the Presidential candidates as they debate foreign policy in 2012.

The discussion begins at the 1:19:30 mark.

EA Video Analysis: US Elections --- How You Can Become Commander-in-Chief Like Mitt Romney

Using Mitt Romney's speech last week at Virginia Military Institute on US foreign and military policy, we explain how you too can become Commander-in-Chief of the United States of America (one hint --- say "Al Qa'eda" a lot):

US Politics Feature: The Biggest Story --- and Danger --- of the Vice Presidential Debate

Full video of the debate between Vice President Joe Biden and Congressman Paul Ryan

See also EA Video Analysis: How to Become An Expert on the US Presidential Election (Part 2)

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For all the verbal combat, the encounter illuminated that the differences between an Obama Administration and a Romney alternative are not as great as advertised.

That was particularly evident on foreign policy, where the concern for many is that a Romney presidency will lead to another misguided overseas adventure. I doubt that concern was eased last night, but at the same time, the debate was notable for how Ryan and Biden effectively converged on a "get tough" posture.

There was nothing on China or Russia, let alone the vanished continents of South America and Africa, and --- compare this to past campaigns --- nothing on Europe and NATO. The international economy, arguably the most important issue right now, did not make even a cameo appearance. Instead, this was a conversation about who could be the harder man over the Middle East and Iran.

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EA Video Analysis: How to Become An Expert on the US Presidential Election (Part 2)

See also EA Video Analysis: How to Become An Expert on the US Presidential Election (Part 1)
US Politics Special: The "Elite Eight" States That Will Decide The Presidential Election

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In Part 2 of our guide --- complete with illustrations --- on how you can become a top pundit on the US Presidential election, we take a look at the "Elite Eight" states that will determine who goes to the White House.

A note of caution, even as you climb the Expert's ladder, about comment during a volatile campaign: since we filmed this on Tuesday, the polls have swung towards challenger Mitt Romney. The basics of the analysis are still the same --- Romney has to win almost all the Elite Eight to become President --- but his chances of doing so are much better than they were before the 1st Presidential debate.

US Politics Audio: Who "Won" the Vice Presidential Debate? --- Scott Lucas with the BBC

Photo: API spoke with BBC Wales this morning about the Vice Presidential debate between Joe Biden and Paul Ryan, looking at the key moments and responding to "Who Won?" with a phrase from British football (soccer to our American readers): "It was a score draw"

The item begins at the 1:54:30 mark.