See also US Politics Special: The "Elite Eight" States That Will Decide The Presidential Election
In 3 1/2 minutes and some drawings, EA puts you on the path to becoming a water-cooler expert on the US Presidential Election, complete with an understanding of the Electoral College and "It's Not the Big States but the Swing States That Make the Difference".
It has been a strange and unexpected week in the American Presidential election, with twists in the established narratives of the Obama and Romney campaigns.
First, the debate on Wednesday night in Colorado dispelled the Obama team's line that Mitt Romney does not represent all Americans. Whether he does or not is beside the point; Romney's performance –-- aided by the non-performance of the President –-- conveyed concern for the problems faced by everyone, nor just the "makers" rather than the 47% who are the "takers".
Then the job numbers released on Friday, with a drop in the headline unemployment rate from 8.1% to a more palatable 7.8%, spiked the guns of the Romney attack that the economy is just not working under Obama.
Are either of these a game-changer? With just over four weeks to go in this campaign probably not. However, despite the welcome job numbers for the Democrats, Republicans have had much the better week. Last Saturday Obama appeared a near-certainty for re-election; now those who have already placed a bet on the President will be silently sweating about the outcome.
See also US Elections Video: The 1st Obama-Romney Debate
Photo: ReutersMitt Romney appeared more committed and convincing when explaining his solutions to America's economic woes. Those ideas may appear to be nothing more than wishful thinking when the answers are dissected, but the perception Romney gave was that he has a coherent plan to restore US fortunes. The bottom line to take from the debates was that Mitt Romney appeared Presidential; the actual president less so.
Will that be enough to shift the polls in Romney's favour?
Polls indicate more voters are "disappointed" with Obama's record in office than "happy", and Americans often pay respect to the rhetoric of a limited government that fosters individual responsibility. If Romney can successfully present his vision on those two issues, without fumbling over his dismissal of 47% of Americans as moochers, he may buttress his claim to be the better choice as the next President of the United States among the undecided.
President Obama in Virginia Beach, Virginia on Thursday
After the electoral votes from these near-certainties, the election comes down to seven or eight "swing states". Of these, three --- Florida, Ohio, and Virginia --- are vital because their larger number of votes in the Electoral College. To win the election, Romney needs to triumph in two of the three. That is why more than half the money spent by both campaigns has been devoted to the trio of battlegrounds.
The cold challenge for the Romney campaign is that the polls put Obama ahead in all three. Florida is close, with President Obama enjoying a narrow 4% advantage, but in both Ohio and Virginia his lead is about 8%.
So why, despite these numbers, are Republicans hopeful that Mitt Romney can still win?
Samuel L. Jackson's pro-Obama "Wake the F*** Up, America"
The latest pro-Romney "attack ad" by the SuperPAC American Crossroads
Next Wednesday, Mitt Romney and Barack Obama will meet in the first of three campaign debates.
Opinion varies as to how critical the debates are in persuading undecided voters to support a candidate, but the cold fact is that in this campaign they are the last chance for Romney to turn around Obama's momentum. The President is currently leading by margins, especially in the battleground states, that have him as a 4-1 favourite –-- 80% probability --- to retain the White House.
The reasons for Romney's disappointing performance are many, but one that is not receiving the attention that it deserves is that conservatives have not yet been able --- as many feared after the Supreme Court decision of 2010 --- to swamp the Obama campaign with a series of negative ads drowning out the voice of the Democratic incumbent. There is time for that change, especially if big donors are encouraged by Romney's performance in the first debate to pour in last-minute millions, but money has not yet shifted the fundamentals in this race.
Tim Pool describes Monday's protests by Occupy Wall Street on its one-year anniversary
What has happened since 2010 that means voters are prepared to re-elect a President whose economic record is so unpopular?
Occupy Wall Street is what happened.
Occupy is not the only reason why Romney's economic narrative has faltered. Indeed, in the larger electoral picture, it is only a small contribution to the GOP's poor campaign, but Occupy did something that observers have failed to appreciate in their rush to dismiss the movement as a fad or failure. The protesters changed the background, even as they failed to build a mass of participation, against which the contending economic visions of Obama and Romney are now framed.
Thursday, September 20, 2012 at 9:14 | Scott Lucas in EA Iran, EA USA, Middle East and Iran, US Politics Governor Mitt Romney's description, caught on video, of what he considered the real nuclear threat from Iran has further undermined his national security credentials, showing a fundamental misunderstanding of nuclear threats. Iran's nuclear program has nothing to do with dirty bombs. Terrorists would not use uranium -- from Iran or anywhere else -- in a dirty bomb. It is unclear if Gov. Romney was just riffing, or if his advisors had fed him this line of attack. But it is dead wrong.
Thursday, September 13, 2012 at 8:57 | Lee Haddigan in Africa, EA Global, EA USA, US Foreign Policy, US Politics Mitt Romney's follow-up statement on Wednesday morning on the attacks in Libya and American deaths
The story of what happened in Libya is just beginning, but viewed through the prism of the domestic presidential campaign, Romney's haste to use the ongoing events in Libya as a political weapon appears to be a major error --- one that suggests he does not have the temperament to lead the nation through a foreign policy crisis –-- not so much because of what he said, but when and why he said it.
