US Politics Analysis: How Chief Justice Roberts Saved ObamaCare...and Gave the President an Election Problem

Chief Justice John Roberts' opinion has rewritten the dynamics of the upcoming Presidential election. With Obamacare being declared constitutional as a tax, the face-value victory for the Administration may well cost Obama the White House in November.

The law was already unpopular with many Americans who saw it as an unconstitutional infringement on their rights. A majority of the Court agreed with them, but the salvation of the Affordable Care Act is that it is a Federal tax.

So after the dozens of pages of legal opinion, a one-sentence question: can you imagine the political advantage Mitt Romney and Republicans will try to take from the President being forced to defend that new tax scheme?

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US Politics Feature: A Lesson for Romney --- Why Nevada and Colorado Decide This November's Election

Mitt Romney in Craig, ColoradoThe focus now and for the next five months is gaining the 270 members of the Electoral College required to win the presidential election. Texan voters select 38 of those voters, while Nevada and Colorado choose just six and nine respectively. But in the contest to be the next President, it is Nevada and Colorado --- and even New Hampshire with just four electoral votes --- are more important logistically than Texas in deciding who will win the White House in 2012.

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US Politics Feature: What A Conservative Surge in the 2012 Elections for Congress Could Mean

This November, America goes to the ballot box to elect not only the President but also the Congress that will either implement or obstruc, the White House programme. The House of Representatives is likely to remain in the control of Republicans, but the Senate --- where Democrats currently enjoy a slight majority, aided by the support of the chamber's two Independents --- is a less predictable story. Conservative Republicans believe they have the opportunity to overturn the Democrats' slender advantage, and, just as importantly, return new Senators who will align with the Tea Party Caucus.

That strategy took on the shape of the possible on Tuesday in Indiana when Richard Mourdock, a conservative heavily backed by pro-market and Tea Party groups from outside the state, defeated six-term Senator Dick Lugar in the GOP primary.

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US Politics: After 3 Wins, Is Romney "Almost-Certain Republican Nominee"? (Balz/Rucker)

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Mitt Romney captured presidential primaries in Maryland, the District and battleground Wisconsin, the biggest prize of the day, to complete a momentum-building, three-contest sweep Tuesday that cemented his status as the almost certain Republican nominee and put new pressure on rival Rick Santorum to reassess his candidacy.

With his campaign increasingly focused on President Obama and the general election, the former Massachusetts governor’s victories in Maryland and the District were never in doubt. He won both by crushing margins. In Wisconsin, where Romney and Santorum devoted most of their energies, the margin was narrower but nonetheless decisive.

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US Politics: Santorum Wins Republican Primary in Louisiana (Farnan and Blake)

Rick Santorum's speech in Wisconsin after winning the Louisiana primary

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Rick Santorum won the Louisiana primary on Saturday, boosting his claim as the leader of the conservative wing of the Republican Party even as his odds of beating Mitt Romney in the overall delegate race appear slim.

With nearly 95 percent of precincts reporting, Santorum led Romney 49 percent to 27 percent. Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich was third with 16 percent and Rep. Ron Paul (R-Texas) was taking 6 percent.

Santorum said in remarks from Wisconsin, which is one of the next states in the GOP nomination contest, that his victory shows his campaign should keep going.

“This race is long and far from over,” Santorum said.

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US Politics: Romney Wins Big in Illinois (Smith)

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With a decisive win in the Illinois presidential primary, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney sets his sights on the bayou where Louisiana holds the next Republican primary.

"We thank the people of Illinois for this extraordinary victory," Romney told supporters in the Chicago suburb of Schaumburg. "Elections are about choices. Today, hundreds of thousands of people in Illinois joined millions of people in this country in this cause."

With 99% of precincts reporting, Romney led former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum by a 47%-to-35% margin. Texas Rep. Ron Paul was running third at 9%, while former House Speaker Newt Gingrich had 8%.

With the victory, Romney was poised to win at least 41 of the 54 delegates up for grabs in the state, giving him a total of 562, according to CNN's estimate. Santorum is second with 249, Gingrich third with 137 and Paul last with 69.

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US Politics Feature: Can Mitt Romney "Seal the Deal" in Illinois for the Nomination?

Today, voters in Illinois get their chance to determine who will win the Republican nomination for the US Presidency.

For the last week, following Rick Santorum's victories in Alabama and Mississippi, a close race has been predicted between him and Mitt Romney, a verdict with which several polls agreed, as the former Pennsylvania Senator began to eat in Romney's large lead in Illinois. That narrative has been called into question, however, by a poll on Monday which gave the front-runner a commanding edge of 45-30 over Santorum. That poll could be wrong, of course, but it does raise the possibility that Romney at last might finally seal the deal for his nomination.

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US Politics Developing: "Desperate End"? Santorum Wins Two Southern Primaries (Hanna/Helton)

Rick Santorum's speech after Tuesday night victories in the Alabama and Mississippi primaries

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Rick Santorum marches forward to the next GOP primary battle with wins in Alabama and Mississippi, throwing cold water on rival Mitt Romney's prediction that his campaign was reaching a "desperate end."

Romney, rejected again by Southern conservatives in the Tuesday primaries, was battling for second place with Newt Gingrich.

The latter had staked his campaign on a Southern strategy after winning South Carolina and Georgia.

In Alabama, Santorum won 35% of the vote. Gingrich and Romney both had 29% --- although Gingrich was about 2,000 votes ahead with 99% of the vote counted -- and Ron Paul had 5%.

With 99% of the vote counted in Mississippi, Santorum had 33%. Gingrich was at 31%, Romney at 30% and Paul at 4%. Romney claimed victory in the caucuses of American Samoa, local officials said, while caucus results in Hawaii had yet to come in.

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US Politics Analysis: How Rick Santorum Can Defeat Mitt Romney

Rick Santorum's campaign ad attacking Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich for supporting "Obamacare"

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Rick Santorum's biggest advantage over Mitt Romney in these next months will be his concentrated attack on the "Big Government" philosophy behind President Obama's economic policies, exemplified in the health care proposals. Santorum can rally Republicans behind the banner of individual freedom in a way that Romney cannot. If this election year is all about the economy, Santorum is beginning to articulate a positive vision of personal economic liberty that transcends the numbers of high unemployment and low growth.

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US Politics Audio: Scott Lucas on BBC "Who Won Super Tuesday?"

Rick Santorum and Mitt RomneyI spoke with BBC WM this morning about the outcome of last night's Republican contests for the Presidential nomination, looking towards the future not only of that battle but also of November's election.

See also US Super Tuesday Summary: Romney "Wins", But It's Not Decisive

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