US Politics Snap Analysis: Romney Wins Michigan & Arizona, But the Battle Continues

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Note the significant difference in the stories below about Mitt Romney's narrow victory in the Republican primary in Michigan, his home state, and his more comfortable win in Arizona --- The Washington Post portrays the night as "an important boost" for the former Massachusetts governor, while Al Jazeera English assesses they "will do little to dispel the doubts" about Romney's campaign. Nate Silver of the website 538.com summarises, "Tonight in awkward middle ground between 'huge night for Romney!'narratives and "'boy that was close!' narratives."

The easy conclusion is that Romney did enough to prevent being stuck with a Loser label that cannot be removed but did not do enough to put away his main challenger, Rick Santorum, before the showpiece of "Super Tuesday" next week, in which voters in 10 states will make decisions.

Beyond that, the "safe" analysis might that by Chris Cilizza, published below: "Romney is — as he has been since the day he entered this race — the best funded and best organized candidate in the race. That means that Romney has the operation in place to capi­tal­ize on the boost of momentum that he should get — in terms of media coverage and donor dollars — in the wake of these two victories."

But then again, no analysis has proven "safe" in this Republican campaign....

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US Politics Shocker: Suicide Leading Romney and Santorum in Polls (Borowitz)

As Republican voters go to the polls today in Arizona and Michigan, The Borowitz Report offers a stunning twist in the contest to challenge President Obama for the White House:

A new survey of likely voters indicates that in a match-up between former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney and former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum, a majority would choose suicide over either candidate.

The poll, conducted by the University of Minnesota’s Opinion Research Institute, shows Mr. Romney drawing 21%, Mr. Santorum 18%, and various forms of suicide 61%.

“Throwing yourself in front of a speeding city bus” was the most popular means of suicide at 22%, with “jumping off the roof of a really tall building or bridge” coming in second at 17%.

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US Politics Analysis: An Interesting Week for Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum...and Jeb Bush?

Rick Santorum & Mitt RomneyIf Rick Santorum beats Mitt Romney in Michigan on 28 February, then is the social conservative from Pennsylvania the Republican nominee?  Probably. But this also raises the possibility that Republicans will turn to an alternative.

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US Politics Audio: Scott Lucas with BBC "Romney Wins in Florida --- Now What?"

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I spoke yesterday with BBC West Midlands about Mitt Romney's win in the Republican primary in Florida. Is the victory decisive for the nomination? (Almost certainly.) Why did Mitt rise and Newt Gingrich fall in the Sunshine State? And what is it about these unusual names for candidates? (Though I guess Mitt is better than Romney's given name...Willard.)

The discussion starts at 2:20.25.

US Politics Feature: Ron Paul, the Youth Vote, and the Legalisation of Marijuana

Before and after the Iowa caucuses, one of the curious stories to emerge was the extraordinary support 76-year-old Paul was garnering among the youth of that state. Most of the commentary credited it to his followers in the anti-war brigade and associated it with the growing disillusionment with America's conflicts abroad.

A natural conclusion; and with some merit. But that alone does not explain why he appealed, according to CIRCLE (the Center for Information & Research on Civic Learning and Engagement) to 48% of voters under the age of 30.

One possibility is that many young Paul supporters are not voting for him, first and foremost, because of his views on foreign policy. Instead, they are considering their personal lifestyles and deciding that Paul, with his calls for the legalisation of marijuana, is the candidate who best represents their interests.

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US Elections Audio & Analysis: Scott Lucas with the BBC "A 4-Point Guide to the Iowa Result"

A Fading Candidate: Newt Gingrich1. The Republican contest is probably already down to two candidates: Mitt Romney v. Anyone Not Named Mitt.

2. Rick Santorum, in a victory of timing, got to be "Anyone Not Named Mitt" yesterday, with previous "Anyones" --- Michele Bachmann, Rick Perry, Newt Gingrich --- fading to the point of departure without a surprise boost in the next few weeks. 

3. Even with a limited share of the vote, this is good news for Romney. Iowa, with its distinction as town-meeting caucuses rather than a primary in the voting booth, usually throws up surprise victors --- anyone remember Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee in 2008? The challenge for a front-runner is to avoid embarrassment, and Romney has accomplished that.

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US Elections Audio: Scott Lucas with BBC on Republicans and the Iowa Caucuses

See also US Presidential Campaign 2012: 'Tis the Season for Silly Names

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I spoke this morning with BBC Radio's 5 Live about the state of the contest for the Republican nomination for the Presidency, six days before the initial battle in the Iowa caucuses.

This is a scene-setting interview, but amidst the sound and fury of Republican candidates rising and falling, I hold out the constant of Mitt Romney as the strongest potential challenger against President Obama next November.

The discussion starts around the 2:43.00 mark.

US Politics Opinion: Whose Gaffe is It Anyway?

Amidst all of these pitfalls and pratfalls, President Obama, who has been languishing in the polls, has caught up and moved ahead of possible contenders. Maybe the voters are starting to see that their President is trying to come to grips with the worst economic times since the Great Depression and that the bromides offered by his opponents won’t work. Possibly, the same voters are realising that the Republican nominees are both limited and woeful.

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US Politics Opinion: Republican Candidate Muddle Their Way Through Foreign Policy

Let's be blunt: if you are inclined to look for disappointments in your life, Saturday night’s Republican debate, held in Spartanburg, South Carolina, met expectations.

The problem was not preparation --- unlike previous encounters, no candidate had failed to set up their position. Each held/his ground vigorously. The problem was that those territories were indistinguishable from one another.  In a debate that was a showcase to make a move on front-runner Mitt Romney, that was good news for the former Governor of Massachusetts, but it did not do much for anyone else.

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US Politics: The Alternative (i.e., Funniest) Summary of the 1st Republican Debate (Adams)

8.00pm ET: The candidates are introducing themselves. Rick Santorum mentions he has seven children. Then Michele Bachmann beats him with five children – and 23 foster children! Really.

Mitt Romney has five sons and 16 grand-kids. Does that beat Bachmann? Good question!

8.03pm ET: OMG, Ron Paul beats them all by mentioning that he has delivered 4,000 babies! Which is a true fact because he used to be an obstetrician and gynecologist. (Although given his philosophy, wouldn't it be better if babies have to birth themselves?)

Poor Tim Pawlenty, he only has two children.

Herman Cain: "I am not a politician. I am a problem solver." But only two children and three grandchildren. Solve that problem Herman Cain!

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