US Elections Audio & Analysis: Scott Lucas with the BBC "A 4-Point Guide to the Iowa Result"

A Fading Candidate: Newt GingrichI spoke with BBC Radio 5 Live this morning about the outcome in the Iowa caucuses, the first contest in the 2012 Presidential campaign. Mitt Romney narrowly "won" the Republican ballot by eight votes over Rick Santorum, the former Senator from Pennsylvania who unexpectedly surged in the final days. The libertarian Ron Paul was a strong third.

Later, I joined two voters in the US and a political analyst in a free-for-all discussion on the BBC World Service's World Have Your Say.

The discussion on Radio 5 Live, beginning at the 2:18.30 mark.

The BBC World Service discussion

Headline points:

1. The Republican contest is probably already down to two candidates: Mitt Romney v. Anyone Not Named Mitt.

2. Rick Santorum, in a victory of timing, got to be "Anyone Not Named Mitt" yesterday, with previous "Anyones" --- Michele Bachmann, Rick Perry, Newt Gingrich --- fading to the point of departure without a surprise boost in the next few weeks. 

3. Even with a limited share of the vote, this is good news for Romney. Iowa, with its distinction as town-meeting caucuses rather than a primary in the voting booth, usually throws up surprise victors --- anyone remember Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee in 2008? The challenge for a front-runner is to avoid embarrassment, and Romney has accomplished that.

At this point, Santorum's strength should be treated as the "negative" of Not Being Mitt rather than the "positive" of a solid appeal on economic issues or even the weight of ability to take on a President Obama in the autumn.

4. Romney will easily win the New Hampshire primary next Tuesday before the uncertainty of South Carolina on 21 January and then Florida, the first big prize, on the 31st. If we are to have a real contest for the nomination, one of the other candidates will have to do more than a momentary performance in Iowa. Paul will never achieve that, despite his dedicated core of activists, Gingrich appears to be a blip, and I do not think Santorum --- the Senator who lost his seat by an 18% margin in 2006 --- has staying power.