Syria Analysis: Recognising A War of Attrition
Friday, August 10, 2012 at 12:45CNN's report on the worsening humanitarian crisis in Aleppo.
The likely military outcome for the Assad regime is defeat. It cannot win in the countryside. It is still losing territory, as well as tanks and soldiers to the ambushes and defections. The captured arms and defecting soldiers are supplemented by fresh supplies and equipment to the insurgents, provided by supporters --- from individuals to states --- outside Syria.
But for all that growing strength, the FSA has yet to prove that it can defeat the Assad military in key cities. Hama remains in the regime's hands. So do Homs and Damascus. A stalemate in Aleppo could be a body blow to President Assad, but that is unlikely to push him from power.
What we have is a war for attrition. The regime cannot win, but it will persist, to the point of destroying much of the country while it tries. The Free Syrian Army will not stop fighting until Assad has fallen, but it is incapable of bringing about a decisive victory to halt the destruction.