Update: Israeli Government Confirms No Hamas Rockets 19 June-4 November 2008

On Thursday, we reported on the Israeli Government's distribution to foreign journalists of a document which said that 1) only 20 rockets were fired into southern Israel in the cease-fire period between 19 June and 4 November 2008 and 2) those rockets were fired by "splinter groups" rather than Hamas.

Now, thanks to our reader Mae, we have located the original report, which comes from the Intelligence and Terrorism Center. In December 2008, they summarised "The Six Months of the Lull Arrangement":

The lull was sporadically violated by rocket and mortar shell fire, carried out by rogue terrorist organizations, in some instance in defiance of Hamas (especially by Fatah and Al-Qaeda supporters). Hamas was careful to maintain the ceasefire....Between June 19 and November 4, 20 rockets (three of which fell inside the Gaza Strip) and 18 mortar shells (five of which fell inside the Gaza Strip) were fired at Israel.

So why did rocket fire from Hamas resume?

On November 4 the IDF carried out a military action close to the border security fence on the Gazan side to prevent an abduction planned by Hamas, which had dug a tunnel under the fence to that purpose. Seven Hamas terrorist operatives were killed during the action. In retaliation, Hamas and the other terrorist organizations attacked Israel with a massive barrage of rockets. Since then, 191 rockets and 138 mortar shells have been fired.

Comments

[Dave]

Then Hamas was the instigator.

Again, tactical withdrawal. This is the problem. Hamas insists on its moral right to wage total war when it feels like dishing out blows. On humanitarian grounds, it demands a limited war when Israel strikes back. Only an idiot would accept such rules for the game that is being played.

[Mae]

I find it particularly outrageous that the Israeli government justifies breaking the truce by accusing Hamas of planning a military action when we now know that the Israelis themselves had been planning 'Operation Cast Lead' since before agreeing to the truce in June 2008.

Here is also an interesting analysis of who kills first after a pause in the Israeli - Palestinian conflict (defined as a period where no killings occur):

Nancy Kanwisher, Johannes Haushofer, & Anat Biletzki of the Huffington Post write:

'Thus, a systematic pattern does exist: it is overwhelmingly Israel, not Palestine, that kills first following a lull. Indeed, it is virtually always Israel that kills first after a lull lasting more than a week.'

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/nancy-kanwisher/reigniting-violence-how-d_b_155611.html

[Joe Ben Avraham]

This another example of bending over backwards to avoid the fact of Palestinian attacks on civilians. So what if Hamas itself didn't shoot the rockets at Israeli civilians during this period. There is no doubt that Hamas was running the Gaza Strip and had a solid secret police force in the field to know who was shooting. They could easily have taken action against these groups, but obviously didn't. Hamas was in charge, the "lull" was broken.
Then after months with multiple clear violations of the lull, Israel takes a single action, yet you blame Israel for breaking the "lull".
And, of course, you fail to explain why it's called a "lull". Why? Because Hamas refused to agree to a "ceasefire" or a "truce" - both terms of which would mean it admitted to stopping military action against Israel

And the bottom line, which everybody seems to be missing, is that Hamas is officially and ideologically opposed to peace. Read their charter and listen to their leaders - it is exactly what they say: "There is no solution to the Palestinian problem except by Jihad."

And for those of you who think that Hamas will negotiate peace, give me a break. Hamas does not believe in peace and they say so explicitly: "Peaceful Solutions, [Peace] Initiatives and International Conferences, the so-called peaceful solutions, and the international conferences to resolve the Palestinian problem, are all contrary to the beliefs of the Islamic Resistance Movement."

And finally, it was Hamas that said they were not going to renew the "lull". Israel said it wanted it to continue.

Noting that Israel is taking the high ground now with its unilateral ceasefire, Hamas now has the choice of fighting on or knuckling under. They are in a tough spot, since ideologically they are committed to fight on. We'll see what happens, but Hamas policy has never placed the health and safety of the Palestinian population higher on their list than martyrdom.

[Dave]

Quoting Joe -- "And the bottom line, which everybody seems to be missing, is that Hamas is officially and ideologically opposed to peace. Read their charter and listen to their leaders - it is exactly what they say: “There is no solution to the Palestinian problem except by Jihad.”

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Exactly. The Palestinian people were wrong to think that by allowing Hamas to run in the elections, the group would choose to renounce arms and adopt moderate positions. Hamas will never accept a viable Palestinian state based on 1967 lines. They would only work within the political system if it could be assured that they would have all of what is now Israel. They're not Fatah.