Urgent Update: Reading Israeli Intentions

See also The Israeli Invasion of Gaza: Rolling Updates (11 January)

Through all the spin and confusion of statements that came out of Tel Aviv this afternoon, one statement stands out as an honest assessment. Deputy Defense Minister Matan Vilnai told Israeli public radio:

The decision of the [UN] Security Council does not give us much leeway. Thus it would seem that we are close to ending the ground operation and ending the operation altogether.

In other words, last Thursday night's vote in New York --- despite the US abstention --- set the clock ticking on Israel to achieve its political and military objectives. Tel Aviv, far from setting the agenda, now has a closing window for its operations.

Seen that way, statements like that of Prime Minister Ehud Olmert --- "[We have] "dealt Hamas an unprecedented blow. It will never be the same Hamas." --- are bluster for victory in the face of likely compromise.

Now, of course, Israel could double its bets and go for a last big push, possibly into Gazan cities. (Those with not-so-short memories may remember that, just before being forced to halt in 2006, Israel ground troops in Lebanon pushed north of the Litani River.) But with each passing hour, let alone day, the goal of toppling Hamas --- just like the goal of crushing Hezbollah more than two years ago --- recedes.