Wednesday
Jan282009
Keeping the Gaza-Iran Link (and Dispute) Alive
Wednesday, January 28, 2009 at 6:38
Update: Iran President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad responds to Obama offer of engagement
Related Post: The Linking of Clenched Fists: Israel, Gaza, and Iran
Even while President Obama and Secretary of State Clinton are talking of engagement with Tehran, others are keeping the pot simmering for a possible showdown.
Yesterday the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Admiral Mike Mullen, claimed, "The United States did all it could to intercept a suspected arms shipment to Hamas militants in the Gaza Strip, but its hands were tied." Mullen was referring to the seizure of a Cypriot-flagged ship, which we noted at the time, which was intercepted by a US patrol in the Red Sea, taken to a port, and searched for two days. Reports at the time said "artillery", which Hamas does not use in Gaza, was found; Mullen referred to "small munitions".
Explanation? If US forces had found parts for rockets, their headline claim of Tehran support for Hamas, I don't think there would have been any hesitation to seize them and hold them up to world scrutiny --- it's not as if US "hands are tied" these days regarding international waters or even national sovereignty (for example, Pakistan). On the other hand, "small munitions" --- handguns and ammunition, for example --- isn't worth the fuss; better just to big up the incident (see the Sunday Times "story" by Uzi Mahnaimi that raised our eyebrows) to keep pressure on Iran.
Meanwhile, from the Iran-Is-Just-Possibly-Planning-to-Kill-Us-All newsdesk: The Daily Telegraph plays up a section of the International Institute for Strategic Studies report, "Military Balances 2009", which say Iran may have an amount enriched uranium sufficent for weapons production by 2010.
The appropriate response should be: And so....? Enriched uranium is essential, of course, for domestic nuclear energy production, so this development on its own says nothing about Iran's military intentions. The key question is still whether Iran has resumed research and development of nuclear fuel production for warheads. While there is a major effort underway to trash the US National Estimate of December 2007, which said Iran had suspended the military process in 2003, there is no evidence yet to refute its conclusions.
Related Post: The Linking of Clenched Fists: Israel, Gaza, and Iran
Even while President Obama and Secretary of State Clinton are talking of engagement with Tehran, others are keeping the pot simmering for a possible showdown.
Yesterday the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Admiral Mike Mullen, claimed, "The United States did all it could to intercept a suspected arms shipment to Hamas militants in the Gaza Strip, but its hands were tied." Mullen was referring to the seizure of a Cypriot-flagged ship, which we noted at the time, which was intercepted by a US patrol in the Red Sea, taken to a port, and searched for two days. Reports at the time said "artillery", which Hamas does not use in Gaza, was found; Mullen referred to "small munitions".
Explanation? If US forces had found parts for rockets, their headline claim of Tehran support for Hamas, I don't think there would have been any hesitation to seize them and hold them up to world scrutiny --- it's not as if US "hands are tied" these days regarding international waters or even national sovereignty (for example, Pakistan). On the other hand, "small munitions" --- handguns and ammunition, for example --- isn't worth the fuss; better just to big up the incident (see the Sunday Times "story" by Uzi Mahnaimi that raised our eyebrows) to keep pressure on Iran.
Meanwhile, from the Iran-Is-Just-Possibly-Planning-to-Kill-Us-All newsdesk: The Daily Telegraph plays up a section of the International Institute for Strategic Studies report, "Military Balances 2009", which say Iran may have an amount enriched uranium sufficent for weapons production by 2010.
The appropriate response should be: And so....? Enriched uranium is essential, of course, for domestic nuclear energy production, so this development on its own says nothing about Iran's military intentions. The key question is still whether Iran has resumed research and development of nuclear fuel production for warheads. While there is a major effort underway to trash the US National Estimate of December 2007, which said Iran had suspended the military process in 2003, there is no evidence yet to refute its conclusions.