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Tuesday
Jan132009

Gaza: More Tasteful Video Games

Last Friday we featured the sensitive, thoughtful video-game tribute to the Gaza conflict "Save Israel". Turns out, however, this is only the beginning --- "Jhak" has kindly pointed us to the far more elaborate "Raid Gaza". This time, you're not firing the Qassam rockets at southern Israel but following Prime Minister Ehud Olmert's orders: "You get 5 minutes. Eliminate as many Palestinians as possible."

You even get an introductory quote by Olmert, "The parameters of a unilateral solution are to maximize the number of Jews, and to minimize the number of Palestinians." (Yes, it's a real quote.)
Tuesday
Jan132009

The Israeli Invasion of Gaza: Rolling Updates (13 January)

Latest Post: Israel Requests, Bush Responds: The US Abstention on the UN Cease-Fire Resolution
Latest post: The "Violent Semi-Peace" in Iraq

5:10 p.m. A piece of critical information from Al Jazeera: Israeli Ministry of Defense official Amos Gilad still has not gone to Cairo --- he was supposed to be there Monday morning. Analysis is that Israel is sitting back, waiting for Egypt to get agreement from Hamas on conditions that Israel wants on monitoring of the border and tunnels.

Al Jazeera analyst: "Hamas is being asked to raise the white flag."

5:05 p.m. Al Jazeera live shots of Israeli attack helicopters as operations continue around Gaza City and battles in the south of Gaza, with Israel targeting tunnel network. Al Jazeera correspondents project "Phase 3" within 24-48 hours.



4:50 p.m. How to Sit on A Fence: At her confirmation hearings, Secretary of State-elect Hillary Clinton --- in her first comments on the Gaza crisis --- says US must back Israeli security needs but acknowledge Palestinian aspirations.

4:30 p.m. A curious lull in news: CNN website uses the dramatic headline "Israel tanks roll into Gaza City" but fighting still appears to be on periphery of the city. Given pattern of recent days, it will be after dusk when Israel presses forward.

4 p.m. Red Cross president Jakob Kellenberger statement after visit to al Shifa hospital: "It hurts a lot when you've seen what I've just seen....A medical mission in such a conflict has to be perfected. These people cannot wait for days or even hours to be evacuated."

3:15 p.m. Speaking to Al Jazeera, Hamas official Ghazi Hamid expresses optimism about developments in Egypt-Hamas talks in Cairo.

3 p.m. The medical crisis escalates, despite the supposed "humanitarian corridors": 28 clinics, almost half of Gaza's total, are closed, hospitals have only 6-8 hours of electricity each day, and ambulances can't move for fear of being fired upon

2:15 p.m. The head of the Red Cross has arrived for three days of talks with Israeli and Palestinian officials, including a visit to al Shifa hospital.

1:55 p.m. Al Mezan Center for Human Rights: "At least 85% of the casualties [are] civilian non-combatants." The Center estimates up to 200,000 Gazans, out of a population of 1.5 millions, have been forced out of their homes.

1:40 p.m. Gazan resident Fares Akram in The Independent:

We don't even see Hamas police in the streets. It isn't that they've gone underground, but they are wearing civilian clothes and they don't dare to show their weapons, or drive their blue police cars which are all still parked in the same places they were in when this started.


Not that there is any law and order to enforce. The prisons have been emptied by the bombing and some have taken advantage of the chaos to carry out vengeance killings or to settle clan feuds.



1:35 p.m. Medical clinics run by Christian Aid and the Catholic organisation Caritas were destroyed in Israeli airstrikes on Monday. Meanwhile, less than 200 of the 1200 hospital beds in Egypt reserved for Gazan victims have been filled.

1:15 p.m. Mahmoud Abbas has resurfaced, accusing Israel of trying out to "wipe out" the Palestinian people by refusing to cease-fire in Gaza

11:40 a.m. Sharp and pertinent observation from Al Jazeera analyst: Fatah leader Mahmoud Abbas has now absented himself from the process and "may well pay the political price" when conflict is over.

11:25 a.m. Two Arab blocs, with total of seven members in Knesset, banned from standing in forthcoming Israeli elections.

11:20 a.m. Division in Israeli Cabinet: Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni prefers unilateral Israeli declaration when "objectives are achieved"; Defense Minister Ehud Barak prefers cease-fire; Prime Minsiter Ehud Olmert pressing for more military operations.

11:10 a.m. Hamas spokesman Osama Hamdan on Al Jazeera: Hamas representatives in Cairo "have the authority and can make their conclusions" to reach an agreement. Hamas conditions: no acceptance of international forces in Gaza, Israeli withdrawal, full opening of border crossings.

11:00 a.m. Question to Al Jazeera's Ayman Moyheldin: "Are there any quiet, safe places in Gaza now?" Moyheldin: "The short answer to no. There simply are no safe places in Gaza."

11 a.m. Reports of Israeli soldiers wounded, one critically, entering "booby-trapped house".

10:30 a.m. From Mohammed, a blogger in Gaza, about the fighting south of Gaza City:

i noticed a message from areej, my uncle mohammads wifes: the tanks have reached us, theres smoke in the house, please pray for us.


i called her. i could hear explosions just outside, and machine gun fire. just before 2 am, israeli tanks and special forces had entered an area just outside tal al-hawa, near the community college. they'd come up against surprisingly touigh and violent resistance. tanks firing randomly into neighbrhoods. white phosphorous munitions used to cover an aparent retreat. the entire apartment is filled with white smoke, the kids are up, screaming. there seems to be a definite retreat, but they're expecting the worst. they say to please keep praying for their safety and for the resistance. they dont know if they will live.



9:50 a.m. Looks like --- by skill or fortune --- our analysis is on the mark: Ha'aretz reports, "Olmert seeks push in Cairo talks before Gaza op enters third stage".

What we didn't know, however, is that Ministry of Defense official Amos Gilad didn't make it to Cairo on Monday. However, Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni, and Defense Minister Ehud Barak met last night, and Olmert then told a series of foreign leaders that the talks with Egypt would be proceeding.

On a separate track, Hamas leaders arrived in Cairo last night for their own discussions.

Morning update (9:40 a.m. Israel/Gaza time): More of the same on military front, as Israel's bombardment continues and its forces ring Gaza City. Israeli tanks are edging into the city from the northwest and the northeast, approaching Hamas' preventative security building. Heavy fighting in Tal al-Awa, south of the city. In the south, fighting east of Khan Younis; Ayman Moyheldin of Al Jazeera reports that the Israeli bombardment has reduced Rafah "to rubble".

Gazan death toll is now 919; 40 percent of dead are women and children. Israeli death toll is 13, of whom 10 are soldiers.
Tuesday
Jan132009

Follow-up: Obama Hedging on Guantanamo Promise?

Looks like Canuckistan, who is an optimist regarding the likely closure of the US prison at Guantanamo, and I --- much more cynical about the prospects --- can claim victory today.



The Obama camp, sending out the message through two advisors, has seized the headlines this morning: "Obama to Sign Order Next Week to Close Guantanamo Prison". So the President-elect is sticking to the plan of the high-profile measure to launch, in tone and substance, a different domestic and foreign policy from that of his predecessor.

The symbolism of the step should not be underestimated, but the issue then becomes implementation. The New York Times has the other half of the story: "Obama’s Plan to Close Prison at Guantánamo May Take Year".

It appears that the incoming Administration has agreed to suspend Guantanamo's discredited military commissions and has rejected the idea of indefinite detention in the US. It is unclear, however, what the suggested legal process will be. And that means that, if the Administration cannot  persuade other countries to take the detainees --- which appears to be the immediate thrust of its efforts --- the limbo will continue. And, as long as it does, Guantanamo remains open, in reality if not in good intentions.
Tuesday
Jan132009

Israel Requests, Bush Responds: The US Abstention on the UN Cease-Fire Resolution

Enduring America, 10 January: It’s a final legacy for President Bush, refusing to back a cease-fire and effectively green-lighting Israel to carry on with the killing (of both Hamas fighters and civilians) in Gaza. But that leaves a further mystery: who really made the decision to pull away from the resolution?



Answer: it was Bush, even though he had no knowledge of the resolution's language. It was Bush, overruling (and humiliating his Secretary of State, Condoleezza Rice) carrying out the wishes of the Israeli Government.



In an extraordinarily frank summary on Monday, Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert set out the process:

[Bush] was taken off the podium [at an event in Philadelphia] and brought to a side room. I spoke with him; I told him: You can't vote for this proposal.


He said: Listen, I don't know, I didn't see, don't know what it says.


I told him: I know, and you can't vote for it!


He then instructed the secretary of state, and she did not vote for it.



Olmert added, "[Rice] was left shamed. A resolution that she prepared and arranged, and in the end she did not vote in favour."

Juan Cole has a lengthy, provocative analysis of the episode and its significance for US foreign policy.
Tuesday
Jan132009

The "Violent Semi-Peace" in Iraq

Last week, after the formal handover of sovereignty from US occupying forces to Iraqi authorities, we noted an Orwellian description in The New York Times that the country was now in a "violent semi-peace".

Although attention has turned away from Baghdad, because of events in Gaza and also the (misguided) sense that the long aftermath to the 2003 war is ending, the tension in events keeps sneaking back. On the one hand, an interesting blog on the website Alive in Baghdad recounts last week's Shi'a commemoration of Ashura: "This year many Iraqis have noted a dramatic decrease in violence. With the exception of a suicide attack on Iranian pilgrims in Kadhamiya, Shi’a in Iraq were able to celebrate 2009’s Ashura Festival in relative peace."

On the other, this morning's headlines highlight that violence: "A string of bombings around Iraq's capital has killed eight people, including three Iraqi soldiers who died when their weapons truck was hit, and wounded at least 32."

As the political complexities get even more tangled in advance of provincial elections --- the latest is that Iraqi Sunni parties cannot agree on a replacement for the Speaker of the Parliament, who resigned in the midst of the debate over Muntazar al-Zaidi's shoe-throwing --- the half-full, half-empty state of "violent semi-peace" is likely to continue.