Obama on Top of the World: The Latest in US Foreign Policy (24 January)

Earlier Updates and Links to Stories: The Latest in US Foreign Policy (23 January)
Latest Post: Coming Next in Iran
Latest Post: Track Barack with the Obamameter

1:35 p.m. After a long and busy week, we're taking the night off. We'll be back in the morning with all the overnight developments fit to notice.

12:50 p.m. According to the German magazine Der Spiegel, France has drafted a plan for European countries to take 60 detainees from the Guantanamo Bay facility. The French Government has refused to comment on the report.

12:40 p.m. In Independent but Not-Quite-Independent Iraq, US troops have killed a couple and wounded their daughter in a raid on  the house of a former Iraqi Army officer in Kirkuk.

A US military spokesman claimed the incident occurred in a joint operation with Iraqi forces, but an Iraqi police general said no Iraqi troops were present.

11:15 a.m. India Snubs Barack and Hillary. Here's one we missed. All week we were identifying Richard Holbrooke as President Obama's special envoy for Afghanistan, Pakistan, and India. In fact, when the appointment was announced on Thursday, India had fallen off the title.

It wasn't an omission. According to a US official, "When the Indian government learned Holbrooke was going to do [Pakistan]-India, they swung into action and lobbied to have India excluded from his purview. And they succeeded. Holbrooke's account officially does not include India."

Daniel Markey of the Council on Foreign Relations offers an explanation for Delhi's resistance: "They [India] are the big fish [in the region]. They don't want to be grouped with the 'problem children' in the region, on Kashmir, on nuclear issues." Moreover, another US official added, "The Indians do not like Holbrooke because he has been very good on Pakistan... and has a very good feel for the place."



11 a.m. Hey, Barack, Look Over Here! United Press International reports:

North Korea's state-run Korean Central News Agency said that a special U.S. Department of Defense investigations committee "recently made public a report designating (North Korea) as a nuclear weapons state."

The news service said the Defense Department report said that North Korea not only has "several nuclear weapons but a missile system capable of delivering them."

At the same time, North Korean leader Kim Jong-Il is reportedly telling Chinese hosts, "The North Korean side will commit itself to the denuclearization of the North Korean peninsula, and hopes to co-exist peacefully with other involved parties."

9:45 a.m. Best Friends Forever Alert. Russian President Dmitri Medvedev made a big show on Friday of co-operation with the new Obama Administration, pointing to his country's permission for US transit of supplies to Afghanistan and offering to work with international efforts against drug-trafficking and terrorism in that country.

It's a low-cost, low-risk strategy for Moscow. There is no great inconvenience giving Washington an alternative to its now-closed Khyber Pass route, and reduced drug production in Afghanistan could ease the flow of illegal narcotics into Russia. And Medvedev can even chide the now-departed Bush Administration, ""Let's hope the new U.S. administration will be more successful than the previous one in dealing with the Afghan settlement."

Russia can do so because it knows full well that, if Obama's military-first approach in Afghanistan fails, it won't be the Soviet Union of the 1980s but the US of the 21st century that takes the fall.

8:30 a.m. A quick tip of the hat to our little-brother site, The State of the United States, which continues to offer some of the most provocative and incisive analysis of US politics: "I'm sure all of us will see Obama's promises carried out soon; people are going to have to be patient. I ask, what is Obama going to promise next? An end to the death penalty?"

6:20 a.m. A suicide car bomb aimed at African Union peacekeepers in Mogadishu, Somalia, has killed 15.

6:05 a.m. More (conflicting) details on the US attack in eastern Afghanistan overnight. The American military is still claiming that 15 militants, including a woman, were killed. Afghan official and a village elder say 21 or 22 civilians died. The elder added, "Their bodies are on the ground. If you (Afghan government) do not believe us, you have helicopters and you should come to the area and see that these are civilians."

5:20 a.m. A revealing pair of sentences in a New York Times summary of yesterday's US missile strikes on Pakistan, which killed at least 20 people:

The downside: "American officials in Washington said there were no immediate signs that the strikes on Friday had killed any senior Qaeda leaders."

The upside: "They said the attacks had dispelled for the moment any notion that Mr. Obama would rein in the Predator attacks."

Soon after the attacks, Obama convened his first National Security Council meeting devoted specifically to Pakistan and Afghanistan. We're searching for details of the discussions.

5:10 a.m. Completely helpful, non-sensational lead sentence in New York Times story on releasing detainees from Guantanamo Bay:

Is Khalid Sheikh Muhammed coming to a prison near you?

5 a.m. Five policeman have been killed and 13 people wounded in a suicide bomb attack northwest of Baghdad.

4:10 a.m. Interesting revelations in the Israeli newspaper Ha'aretz. Obama envoy George Mitchell will arrive in the Middle East before 10 February. Meanwhile, Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni has gone on the offensive and set out Israel's preconditions in any negotiations, telling US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton that Israel will "not open the Gaza crossings without progress toward the release of kidnapped soldier Gilad Shalit". (cross-posted from Israel-Palestine-Gaza Updates)

3:40 a.m. US officials claim 15 "militants" killed in American raid; villagers report civilians among dead.

Morning update (3 a.m. Washington time): CNN reports that Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has reached out to allies by phoning "a slew of leaders since taking office on Thursday". OK, that's great. One question....

What's a slew?

Within 15 minutes, a reader responds by noting that "slew" is the past tense of "slay" and worries that the alliance may have something to do with killing.

For the record, the foreign leaders mentioned by the State Department were "Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni and Defense Minister Ehud Barak, as well as Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas, Jordan's King Abdullah and the foreign ministers of Egypt and Saudi Arabia".

The Latest from Israel-Palestine-Gaza (24 January)

Latest Post: How Israel Spawned Hamas
Earlier Updates and Links to Stories: The Latest from Israel-Palestine-Gaza (23 January)

8:35 p.m. After a long and busy week, we're taking the night off. We'll be back in the morning with all the overnight developments fit to notice.

8:30 p.m. Just to make sure that no one forgets his country's emerging position amidst the Gaza conflict, Syrian President Bashir al-Assad has congratulated Hamas leader Khalid Meshaal on the "victory" over Israeli forces.

7:23 p.m. Saudi Prince Turki al-Faisal has followed up his criticism of US policy on Israel and Palestine, and an Obama phone call to Saudi King Abdullah, with a more muted warning in an interview with CNN. While welcoming Obama's Friday statement and the appointment of envoy George Mitchell, Turki said: "We've heard this before. We need to see implementation. We need to see facts on the ground change. We need to see rhetoric change. We need to see presence on the ground."

7:15 p.m. Hamas is not backing down in the face of Israel's attempts to cut off aid unless it is distributed by other organisations. The Gazan leadership has announced the formation of a committee of senior officials as "the only body to oversee and supervise the rescue. We will be in contact with all other bodies, whether local, national or international, to organise the relief."

7:10 p.m. While Lebanon has not been in the front line of Arab debate over Gaza, it is still worthwhile to note the statement of Prime Minister Fouad Siniora on Saturday. Speaking of a Day of Solidarity with Gaza, Siniora called on all Lebanese "to support the Palestinian brethren in Gaza in any way possible and according to the individual's capability".

5:50 p.m. Word is being leaked that President Obama's envoy George Mitchell will visit Israel and the West Bank next week. The sharp-eyed amongst you will already note that he is not going to Gaza.

5:35 p.m. ITV and Channel 4 have broken with the BBC and will now air a Disaster Emergency Committee appeal for Gaza. The same article also carries Tony Benn's prediction that the BBC will back down and agree to air the appeal, "Before the sun sets in London tonight."



5:05 p.m. A must-see article in The Wall Street Journal: "How Israel Helped Spawn Hamas". We've reprinted and analysed it in a separate post.

2:55 p.m. Interesting counter-move in Cairo: Hamas is meeting with Egyptian officials to discuss a possible swap of Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit, held by Hamas since 2006, for Palestinian prisoners held by Israel.

Equally, Hamas is suggesting that members of the Palestinian Authority can assist in the monitoring of the Rafah crossing, as long as they are residents of Gaza and not the West Bank. Hamas is also proposing that European Union and Turkish peacekeepers supervise the border.

These are quite clever proposals.  Hamas is trying to separate the Shalit issue from the question of reopening the crossings, and their proposals for the border are very close to the Mubarak-Sarkozy plan pressed by Cairo soon after the initial Israeli attacks. If Cairo agrees, Egypt has effectively dismissed its earlier hopes of removing Hamas from power, and the diplomatic ball will be in  Tel Aviv's court.

2:50 p.m. Schools have reopened in Gaza, but teachers are having to deal with the "psychological trauma" suffered by children in recent weeks.

12:50 p.m. In Case You're Still Thinking About That Regime Change Idea. Washington Post reporters finally get into Gaza and report:

In dozens of interviews across Gaza on Friday, ...Palestinians generally expressed either unbridled support for Hamas or resignation to the idea that the group's reign in Gaza will continue for the foreseeable future. No one suggested that the group is vulnerable.

12:30 p.m. The New York Times has a long profile on the quick rebuilding of Gazan tunnels, damaged by Israeli airstrikes: "The tunnels are the principal livelihood for many people here, and as soon as the bombing stopped, they were right back in them with their shovels."

The best quote? “This will give us greater skills,” said one digger. “We’ll become artists.”

11 a.m. Interesting revelations in the Israeli newspaper Ha'aretz: Obama envoy George Mitchell will arrive in the Middle East before 10 February. Meanwhile, Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni has gone on the offensive and set out Israel's preconditions in any negotiations, telling US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton that Israel will "not open the Gaza crossings without progress toward the release of kidnapped soldier Gilad Shalit".

10 a.m. Israel/Gaza time: The Israeli Government has appointed an inter-ministerial legal defense team to defend officials and soldiers against any war crimes charges.

The Latest from Israel-Palestine-Gaza (23 January)

Latest Post: George Mitchell on the Israel-Palestine Issue, 22 October 2008
Related Post: Chomsky on Gaza 2009
Related Post: Enduring America in UCD College Tribune on Gaza
Related Post: Regime Change in Gaza - The Israeli Strategy Continues

2 p.m. An intriguing development, but one which will need some detective work to assess its significance. President Obama “asked Saudi King Abdullah for support in halting weapons smuggling into Gaza and underscored the importance of U.S.-Saudi ties” in a Friday phone call.

The call takes on added significance because an influential member of the Saudi Royal Family, Prince Turki al-Feisal, launched an attack against the Bush Administration’s “poisonous legacy” in a newspaper article on Friday morning, warning, “If the U.S. wants to continue playing a leadership role in the Middle East and keep its strategic alliances intact — especially its ’special relationship’ with Saudi Arabia — it will have to drastically revise its policies vis-a-vis Israel and Palestine.”

So the first message in Obama’s call was not to get active Saudi participation in the naval blockade of Gaza but assurances that Riyadh would not try to undermine it by moving cash and material to Palestinian groups in the area. The second message, however, is more important and hard to decipher:

Do those US-Saudi ties mean that Obama will accept Saudi ideas for Israel-Palestinian negotiations, for example, a revival of the 2002 Mecca proposals that the Bush Administration flagrantly rebuffed? Or is Washington expecting the Saudis to follow the lead of a yet-seen approach that will be unveiled in the visit of George Mitchell to the region?



11:05 p.m. The Egypt-Israel Alliance Restored. This really should be headline news....

The Jerusalem Post reports that Cairo and Tel Aviv have agreed on a plan for up to 1500 Egyptian guards to "secure" the Egypt-Gaza border. Egypt and Israel will cooperate on " intelligence cooperation, obstacles in Sinai and the deployment of new tunnel-detection technology along the border". The plan was approved by Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni, and Defense Minister Ehud Barak after a late-night meeting on Thursday.

The agreement restores Egyptian-Israeli cooperation on the isolation of Hamas and economic blockade of Gaza after Cairo balked at having an international force patrol the border.

10:45 p.m. France has announced it will be sending a frigate with helicopters to patrol the Gaza coast.

This is the military dimension of the French strategy, working with Israel, the US, and Egypt to block arms supplies to Hamas. The question is the whether the political dimension, in which Paris persuades the Obama Administration to talk to Hamas or (more likely) serves as an interlocutor for quiet discussions, is implemented.

8:43 p.m. Israel continues to restrict aid into Gaza. It is allowing 120 truckloads of food and medicine (compared to traffic last summer of 750 trucks/day), but is blocking transport steel and cement and preventing cash --- even though it comes from the Palestinian Authority --- from reaching Gazans.

8:40 p.m. White House release says President Obama phoned Saudi King Abdullah this afternoon. No other details given.

7:15 p.m. What is the definition of Crocodile Tears? Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert on his reaction to a Gazan doctor hearing, live on Israeli television, about the death of three daughters and a niece: "I cried when I saw this. Who didn't? How could you not?"

5:10 p.m. The State Department's Twitterers pass on news of a US interception and two-day search of an Iranian-owned ship in the Red Sea.

No jackpot this time, however, in the quest to link Tehran and Hamas. The ship was carrying artillery shells, but the Gazan organisation doesn't use artillery.

4:20 p.m. Reuters reports the statement of United Nations official John Ging that Israel's invasion of Gaza has strengthened the hand of extremists and that growing Gazan anger can only be assuaged by a credible independent investigation: "The extremists here -- there are more now at the end of this conflict than there were at the start, that's the product of such conflict -- are very confident in their rhetoric that there should be no expectation that justice will be delivered through the rule of law. Now we must prove that wrong,"

3:25 p.m. Pro-Israel Twitterers are pushing the news that twelve representatives of Physicians for Human Rights have been allowed into Gaza by Israeli forces. They might want to reflect on the timing and scale of that "concession", given the more than 2000 Gazans who are still hospitalised with serious injuries. And they want to take note of the sub-headline in the article: "Many families were simply wiped out during IDF offensive".

12:20 p.m. Profiles in Broadcasting Courage. The BBC has refused to air a national humanitarian appeal for Gaza by the Disasters Emergency Committee, an umbrella group for 13 charities. The explanation? ""The decision was made because of question marks about the delivery of aid in a volatile situation and also to avoid any risk of compromising public confidence in the BBC's impartiality in the context of [a] news story."

Special Note: Using that criteria of "impartiality", the BBC would not have aired LiveAid in the midst of the Ethiopian famine (and civil war) in 1984-85.

11:10 a.m. The excellent analyst Jim Lobe finds grounds for optimism both in the appointment of George Mitchell as President Obama's envoy to the Middle East and in Obama's statement yesterday.

11:05 a.m. Just to highlight the Fatah-Hamas struggle and the possible "blowback" from Israeli operations --- it's Hamas, not Fatah, who is stronger in both Gaza and the West Bank --- Donald Macintyre offers this assessment in The Independent of London:

The sharp decline in support for Fatah and the discrediting of Mahmoud Abbas, President of the Palestinian Authority, because of his inertia during the 22-day Gaza war, will make it very difficult for the US and the EU to pretend that Fatah are the true representatives of the Palestinian community.

10:55 a.m. Saudi Arabian Prince Turki al-Faisal has fired a warning shot at Washington over Israel, Palestine, and Gaza, writing in The Financial Times: "Unless the new U.S. administration takes forceful steps to prevent any further suffering and slaughter of Palestinians, the peace process, the U.S.-Saudi relationship and the stability of the region are at risk."

Turki isn't just "a member of the Saudi royal family". He's a former leader of Saudi intelligence services and a former Saudi ambassador to Britain. Consider the Obama Administration put on notice. Any Saudi backing of the attempt to knock off Hamas is now outweighed by the need to condemn Israel for its military and political approach: "If the U.S. wants to continue playing a leadership role in the Middle East and keep its strategic alliances intact -- especially its 'special relationship' with Saudi Arabia -- it will have to drastically revise its policies vis-a-vis Israel and Palestine."

10:50 a.m. Twitter One-Liner of the Morning: "Best thing about appointment of George Mitchell as Middle East envoy is it effectively puts demonic Tony Blair out of a job."



10:30 a.m. We've posted a separate blog,  The Strategy for Gaza Unravels, on Israel's attempt to tie reconstruction aid for Gaza to regime change, toppling Hamas and re-installing the Palestinian Authority.

Morning update (8:45 a.m. Israel/Gaza time): CNN carries a tip-of-the-iceberg story about the central battle over Who Runs Gaza?: "Rival Factions  Trade Accusations Over Spying, Violence". It reports on Hamas accusations of spying for Israel by Fatah members and on counter-accusations that Hamas has carried out "punishment shootings".

The story is mainly a recap of information which has been out for days, although it does add some detail. Fatah is alleging that at least 175 of its members have been rounded up and tortured, while the neighbours of Hamas leader Saed Siam, killed in an Israeli airstrike last week, are claiming that informers pinpointed the house for the Israelis.

What is missing in the article is any recognition of the wider political struggle to lead Gaza, including the linking of the Israeli attacks to plans to return the Palestinian Authority to power.

The Israeli Invasion of Gaza: Updates (21 January)

See also: It's Morning in America: The Day after the Inauguration

12:10 a.m. United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon has reported to the UN Security Council after his trip to Gaza and Israel, and he's just a bit upset. Speaking about (or rather having his deputy speak, as Ban had lost his voice) the "several incidents of outrageous attacks against U.N. facilities," Ban said, "I expect to receive a full explanation of each incident and that those responsible will be held accountable for their actions."

This does not make up for the UN leadership's impotence in this conflict --- Ban admitted a "collective political failure" --- but at least it shows that, once he realised how badly Israel had damaged his facilities and threatened his staff, Ban could put his de facto support of Tel Aviv into a critical context.

10:20 p.m. Trying to counter Israeli Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni's courtship of European nations to join Israeli effort to isolate Hamas further, Hamas leader Khaled Meshaal has made his own appeal: "I tell European nations ... three years of trying to eliminate Hamas is enough. It is time for you to deal with Hamas, which has gained legitimacy through struggle."

Meshaal may have an opportunity. France, rather quietly, indicated Tuesday that it may be ready to talk to Hamas, even in advance of the organisation's recognition of Israel.



9:45 p.m. Israeli Prime Ministerial candidate and Minister of Defense Ehud Barak blows smoke: ""The IDF has drastically changed the unbearable reality in Israeli communities surrounding the Gaza Strip. This outstanding operation has increased Israel's deterrence in the entire region; the IDF's clear victory was the result of meticulous planning and skilled execution."

Even if you accept the red herring of stopping Hamas' rocket fire --- when regime change was the primary aim of the Israeli operation --- Israel is in the same position that it was, say, from June-October 2008. Politically, it is no better and, possibly, worse off.

8:45 p.m. Israeli Supreme Court has reversed the ban on two Arab political parties, imposed last week, from standing in next month's elections.

7:45 p.m. Alive in Gaza has posted its latest written report from correspondents in Gaza. The correspondents report general calm, but there are naval battles between Israeli and Palestinian forces and a child has died after stepping on an unexploded cluster bomb.

7:35 p.m. Welcome to the New White House Spin Zone. Press secretary Robert Gibbs passes on news of the Obama calls to Olmert and Abbas, "He used this opportunity on his first day in office to communicate his commitment to active engagement in pursuit of Arab-Israeli peace from the beginning of his term, and to express his hope for their continued cooperation and leadership."

Surprisingly, there was no reference to a call to Hamas.

7:25 p.m. Shhhh, don't tell the Israeli Air Force: local residents say some smuggling tunnels between Egypt and Gaza have reopened.

7:15 p.m. Obama has called Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert as well as Palestinian Authority head Mahmoud Abbas.

5:55 p.m. Confirmation that Obama called the head of the Palestinian authority on Wednesday: “Obama reiterated that he and his administration will work in full partnership with President [Mahmoud] Abbas to achieve peace in the region,” Saeb Erekat, the PA’s chief negotiator, said.

No word on whether Obama called the leaders of Hamas.

5:05 p.m. A Belgian court has been petitioned by attorneys, of behalf of French and Belgian relatives of slain Gazans, to arrest Israeli Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni when she arrives in Brussels later on Wednesday.

4:30 p.m. Hamas reasserts control over security in Gaza: an Interior Ministry spokesman says, "The internal security service was instructed to track collaborators and hit them hard. They arrested dozens of collaborators who attempted to strike the resistance by giving information to the occupation about the fighters."

4:15 p.m. In an excellent article in today's New York Times, Sabrina Tavernise speaks with Gazan residents whose farming village was reduced "to rubble":

In [Juhr el Dik's] center is now a giant swath of destruction where about 40 houses once stood. “It’s an earthquake,” said Salim Abu Ayadah, the mayor of the town, whose house was among those destroyed. “When I saw it, I couldn’t believe my eyes. I couldn’t walk.”

2:15 p.m. Vice Premier Haim Ramon to Israel radio: "Let's not fear President Obama. I am convinced that President Obama and his team want to achieve what is essential to Israel -- two states for two peoples."

2:10 p.m. Estimated cost of reconstruction of Gaza: $2 billion

12:30 p.m. No Kidding Story of the Day: "Egypt dominance as Mideast mediator in doubt" (Reuters may want to make the minor correction, however, that Egypt was never a mediator in this conflict, rather a channel to achieve Israel's aims as well as Cairo's).

12:20 p.m. Iran says that "Palestinian resistance", not-too-subtle code for Hamas, has right to arms. (Not news to me --- in an interview for Iranian News Agency on Monday, I was asked several times in several ways if Gaza should have "tanks and helicopters" for self-defence)

11:10 a.m. Ayman Moyheldin of Al Jazeera reports firing by Israeli navy off Gaza coast, although it is unclear whether it was aiming at shore targets or deterring Gazan fishermen. Israeli forces still massed on Israel's side of the border.

11:05 a.m. Israeli Defense Forces come close to admission to use of white phosphorous, with spokeswoman Amital Leibovich insisting, "We used munitions according to international law." More significantly, "Ma'ariv reported that the IDF had privately admitted using phosphorus bombs and that the Judge Advocate General's Office and Southern Command were investigating."

11 a.m. Press TV of Iran's top stories: 1) Iran wants Israeli leaders to stand trial for war crimes; 2) Israel withdraws from Gaza; 3) Obama promises "better relations" with Muslim world. Al Jazeera focuses on Obama's likely appointment of former Senator George Mitchell as his Middle East envoy.

9:40 a.m. Israeli officials are busily telling the press that "Barack Obama is a 'true friend of Israel' who identifies emotionally not only with the state, but also with the people of Israel".

Morning update (9:30 a.m. Israel/Gaza time): The Israeli Army did not complete its withdrawal from Gaza in time for the Obama Inauguration, but it has now stated that all units have left the area.

No further moves on the diplomatic or humanitarian front, especially on the issue of rebuilding Gaza. However, the Israeli YNetNews is reporting that European Union Foreign Ministers will announce on Wednesday "their intention to contribute units, vessels, and technological means in order to curb weapon transfers from Iran to Hamas". Just as intriguing is the claim that "Israel and Western countries are currently engaged in a race against Iran in an effort to prevent Tehran from leading the Gaza reconstruction efforts".

Our colleagues at Alive in Gaza have posted an interesting audio interview with photojournalist Sameh Habeeb on Gazan reaction to the arrival of President Obama --- "Obama neglected the Palestinians" --- as well as a transcript of an earlier interview during the conflict.

Chris Emery on Israeli Elections and the Gaza Crisis: What Has Changed?

Chris Emery, a Ph.D. student at the University of Birmingham, offers a detailed reading of the effect --- if any --- that Israel's invasion of Gaza has had upon the contest to become the next Israeli Prime Minister.

The recent news that Benjamin Netanyahu remains firmly on course to become Israel’s next prime minister, draws into sharp relief the complex domestic political dynamics around the crisis in Gaza.

Though consistently cited as part of a more cynical motivation for the recent conflict in Gaza, the direct significance of the looming election on February 10 is not immediately apparent. Not least, that is because the man most responsible for launching and prolonging the war, Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, is not even standing. As Aluf Benn notes, Olmert has his eyes on his legacy rather than any electoral prize. Not so, of course, his ambitious foreign minister and more seasoned defence minister.



The surface reading is that Tzipi Livni and Ehud Barak, albeit incorporating different agendas, viewed a popular war as an electoral panacea to their increasingly perilous opinion polls. It was, after all, on the issue of security that Livni was perceived as most vulnerable to attacks from the Likud leader, Netanyahu. Partly on this basis, but more significantly on the issue of Olmert’s corruption and lingering criticism of his handling of the war in Lebanon, Likud had built up a sizable lead in the polls. By mid-December, Likud’s lead peaked at 14 seats. At the same time, Barak’s Labor Party looked to be heading towards electoral annihilation.

This is not the first time Israeli politicians have been accused of seeking political gain from military successes. In March 2006, Olmert's Kadima Party had recently dropped in opinion polls to 38 seats, still far ahead of its closest rivals, raising speculation that a coalition headed by Olmert would not be strong enough to push through his agenda. Olmert subsequently ordered a raid, in which Israeli troops seized the leader of a radical PLO faction, which had wide backing amongst hardliners in Israel. The next polls put Kadima up to 42-43 seats.

Recent polls suggested that the conflict had similarly boosted Labor and Kadima. Up to a few days ago, some polls indicated Kadima had cut Likud’s lead to between 2 and 3 seats. Labor, once the subject of media ridicule, now look to win 15 of the 120 parliamentary seats- an increase of at least 6 since mid December. With hostilities ceasing and campaigning about to begin in earnest it is, however, still Netayahu who remains clear favourite to be the next prime minister. How now then to explain the latest polls that put Likud ahead of Kadima by between 5 and 7?

There was of course always a limit on the extent Kadima’s malaise could be overcome. Many of the issues that placed Likud so far ahead of Kadima, up to late December, have not fundamentally changed since. Not least the underlining reason why there will be an election- a corruption scandal that forced Olmert to resign. Livni’s failure to forge a coalition that could have prevented an election was seen as further evidence of her inexperience in a critical area of Israeli politics.

The current conflict may have displayed Livni’s determination to confront Hamas and her refusal to contemplate the Sarkosy’s cease-fire or acknowledge a humanitarian crisis in Gaza increased her hawkish credentials. But it seems unlikely that she is now substantially better placed to beat the hard-line Netayahu on the grounds of national security. Reports that Livni had wished to end hostilities several days before the ceasefire was announced made her appear less hawkish than Olmert, and also excluded from the major decisions. It is doubtful that the vocal supporters of the war will see Livni as more likely than Netanyahu of protecting the gains they perceive Israel has made in Gaza.

It seems also that any drop Netanyahu did experience in the polls cannot be simply attributed to a surge in right wing support for Kadima following the present conflict. A possible explanation can be found in the controversy surrounding hardliner Likudnik Moshe Feiglin's election to the relatively high 20th spot during the party's primary election last week. Feiglin's ousting from a Knesset seat backfired, causing rightist voters to abandon Likud for sectarian and hardliner parties.

Commentary of the Israeli election had actually been hard to find in either the Israeli or international media. This is in part due to the fact that political campaigning was suspended by all candidates in Israel. Definitive political analysis appears to remain suspended at the Jerusalem Post, which today predicted that the result could be anything “from a Likud blowout to a surprising Kadima come-from-behind victory.”

The conflict is very unlikely to have prevented Netanyahu from becoming the next prime minister. The real political impact of the war in Gaza may be in preventing a Likud landslide. In the context of Israel’s complex political system of alliance building, this could itself make the conflict significant. Broadly speaking, Barak has faired fairly well, avoiding potential electoral disaster and almost certainly securing a top spot in the next administration. Livni has to some extent bolstered her security credentials but has been hampered by an exceptionally poor working relationship with both Barak and Olmert. Netanyahu has probably played his hand as well as he could, the suspension of campaigning has not allowed him to make any mistakes, and he knows he faces little threat from Livni on the grounds of national security.