The Latest on Israel-Gaza-Palestine (27 January)

Earlier Updates: The Latest on Israel-Gaza-Palestine (26 January)
Latest Post: Obama’s First “Reach-Out” to the Muslim World - The Interview with Al-Arabiya
Latest Post: Transcript of Obama Interview with Al-Arabiya
Latest Post: The Linking of Clenched Fists - Israel, Gaza, and Iran

11:50 p.m. When Hamas Isn't Extreme Enough....Make of this what you will. The Israeli Defense Forces say today's bombing that killed an Israeli soldier was carried out by "an extremist pro-Iranian group, which espouses a militant ideology that surpasses even Hamas' positions in its opposition to Israel. The group receives direct support from Tehran, but is connected in various ways to Hamas as well."

The same article states that a group called the "Jihad and Tawhid Brigades" --- "an Islamist group affiliated by Al Qa'eda" --- called Ramattan TV to claim responsibility for the attack.

So we have an attack supposedly carried out on Israel by "extreme Islamsts"-Al Qa'eda-Hamas-Tehran. The perfect terrorist storm or the perfect information campaign?

A quick search turns up reports that "Jiwad and Tawhid Brigades" were formerly led by Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, a leader of the Iraq insurgency who was killed by US forces in June 2006.

11:40 p.m. Turkey continues to manoeuvre for a Middle Eastern re-alignment in which Hamas is a recognised political party. Foreign Minister Ali Babacan urged the Gazan leadership through Turkish newspapers, ""Hamas should make a decision. Do they want to be an armed organisation or a political movement?" At the same time, Babacan pointed noted Hamas' support, "The party supported by Hamas got 44 per cent of the votes in the last elections. It is impossible to ignore this base."

11:35 p.m. Alive in Gaza has the latest audio interview with photojournalist Sameh Habeeb, discussing the latest situation, humanitarian relief, and Hamas' alleged control of funds.

11:20 p.m. US envoy George Mitchell, who is in Cairo for the first leg of his Middle East tour, may want to turn around and go home. Really.

Secretary of State Hillary Clinton thumbed her nose at Hamas and, indeed, verged on green-lighting another Israeli attack on Gaza. In her first news conference as Secretary, Clinton said:

We support Israel's right to self-defense. The (Palestinian) rocket barrages which are getting closer and closer to populated areas (in Israel) cannot go unanswered....It is regrettable that the Hamas leadership apparently believes that it is in their interest to provoke the right of self-defense instead of building a better future for the people of Gaza.

I cannot find an explanation for this that fits any sensible strategy of diplomacy, apart from the possibility that Clinton is clinging to the idea of working with Israel and the Palestinian Authority, isolating and undermining Hamas. If that is the case, it's a strategy whose time passed three weeks ago amidst the dead in Gaza.

11 p.m. In his first news conference since the Israel attack on Gaza on 27 December, Palestinian Authority leader Mahmoud Abbas has pledged to tell US envoy George Mitchell:

Israel does not want peace, otherwise it would not have done this. We need to understand this and tell it to those coming from Europe and America. Israel wants to waste time to strengthen facts on the ground with settlements and the wall.

Abbas set out "red line" demands that would have to be met in any talks, ""We want a state in the 1967 borders, a fair solution to the refugee issue, removal of settlements. There will be no going beyond these points or bargaining." And, for good measure, he tried to put Israel on the moral defensive: "We will do all we can to prove Israel committed crimes that would make your skin crawl. We want the world to give us justice for once."

No doubt Abbas, who is in a good deal of political trouble even amongst his West Bank base, is playing to the Palestinian galleries. To what extent, however, is he serious about taking this position into talks with Mitchell? The answer to that will reveal if Israel's operations in Gaza have effectively ruled out any meaningful negotiations, at least in the near-future.

6 p.m. Gazan photojournalist Sameh Habeeb, speaking to Alive in Gaza, reports "limited [Israeli] ground troop presence" moving into Gaza.

4:15 p.m. Hamas claims two people have been wounded by an Israeli airstrike in southern Gaza. Reports indicate all border crossings have been closed following the killing of an Israeli soldier and a Palestinian farmer this morning.

3 p.m. It appears the Fatah-led Palestinian Authority has tried to get political breathing space by delaying Presidential elections until 2010. Palestinian Authority leader Mahmoud Abbas had said that elections would take place in April, but that intention has been undermined by the effect of the Gaza conflict on Fatah's support.

Hamas claims that Abbas' term of office ended on 9 January but Abbas maintains that it runs until the expiry of the Parliamentary term next year.

1:55 p.m. Aid workers are protesting Israel's continued restrictions on their access to Gaza. Charles Clayton, chair of the Association of International Development Agencies (AIDA), which represents 75 agencies, says, "It is unacceptable that staff of international aid agencies with expertise in emergency response are still not given full access into Gaza, and that the crossings are not fully operational for humanitarian and commercial goods."

According to CARE, 89 percent of Gazans have not received humanitarian assistance since the first Israeli attacks on 27 December. About 120 trucks of aid are entering Gaza daily but this is far below the level of 600-800 trucks during last year's cease-fire period.

1:45 p.m. Egypt has proposed 22 February for the start of a dialogue between Palestinian groups, according to several of the factions. Hamas is more cautious, saying "This is among the ideas under discussions and to which we will give some responses in due course."

12:50 p.m. Sporting Reference of the Day. At the press conference announcing envoy George Mitchell's departure for the Middle East, President Obama gave this optimistic assessment, "Compared to steroids, this is going to be a breeze."

Explanation? In 2006 and 2007, Mitchell investigated drug-taking scandals in US professional baseball in 2006/7.

11:35 a.m. The Independent of London reports that the appeal by the Disasters Emergency Committee for aid to Gaza, which the BBC refused to air but which was screened by Britain's ITV and Channel 4 last night, raised £600,000 even before the first broadcasts.

11:30 a.m. An Israeli soldier has been killed on the Gaza border by a bomb near the Kissifum crossing. Local medics say a Palestinian farmer was later shot dead by Israeli forces.

Overnight developments (8:30 a.m. Israel/Gaza time): The major symbolic development is President Obama's interview with Al-Arabiya, his first with any television channel, covering the Middle East and Iran. We've posted the transcript and an analysis. On Israel-Palestine, it offers little of substance, but it's a great statement in tone --- "what I told [envoy George Mitchell] is start by listening, because all too often the United States starts by dictating".

Meanwhile, Israel's own diplomatic move has been to block a French effort to lift the diplomatic and economic blockade of Hamas and Gaza. At the meeting of EU foreign ministers in Brussels, France had sought a closing statement that "the European Union would be prepared to hold talks with a future Palestinian unity government that agreed to honor the principles of the Israeli-Palestinian peace process".  Paris also wanted to open up a broad approach to the issue of Israel-Gaza crossings, striking the reference "in accordance with the 2005 agreement between Israel and the Palestinian Authority".

According to Ha'aretz, " Israeli officials conducted a frenetic diplomatic battle to torpedo the unwanted changes" over two days, persuading the Czech Republic (which currently holds the EU Presidency), the Netherlands, Germany, and Italy to sideline the French initiative.

The Latest from Israel-Gaza-Palestine (26 January)

Earlier Updates and Links to Posts: The Latest from Israel-Gaza-Palestine (25 January)

10:10 p.m. So We're Hopeless at Diplomacy but....The European Union on Monday put itself firmly behind the US- and Israeli-led plan to block arms shipments to Gaza: ""The EU welcomes the commitment of the United States to contribute to stopping arms smuggling into Gaza and is prepared to identify ways to cooperate in such efforts."

An internal EU paper proposed that European help could include training of security forces, provision of necessary specialised equipment and, a curious and unclear provision, "the creation of alternative incomes".

10 p.m. President Bashir al-Assad, pressing his advantage from Syria's position in the Gaza conflict, has said that there can be talks with Israel but only on Damascus' terms, "If whoever is elected in Israel won't be willing to pull out of the Golan Heights, there will be no negotiations." He added:

We held talks with Israel over recent weeks, but Israel did not convey its commitment to peace talks, and it became clear that they only understand the language of force.

Assad took a no-cost shot at outgoing Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, "If Olmert were to come to me today and say that he was ready for peace, what could we tell him? We would tell him that he is a criminal and that we don't talk to criminals."

And the sharp-eyed might care to notice Assad's choice of outlet for his statement: Hezbollah's Al-Manar Television.




6:30 p.m. Reuters, summarising what we've been saying since the start of the Gaza conflict, observes, "Syria eyes strategic gains after Gaza war." A Damascus official lays out the new order: "The stiff resistance in Gaza has proved that Hamas is a political force to be reckoned with. There is a new regional reality and more countries are supporting this view. Turkey is one important player."

5 p.m. Extending the European Union's record of clumsy diplomacy in the Gaza conflict, the EU Commissioner for Development and Humanitarian Aid, Louis Michel, said today, "I intentionally say this here - Hamas is a terrorist movement and it has to be denounced as such." Michel made the statement as he toured the town of Jabaliya, which suffered extensive casualties and damage during the Israeli bombardment.

Michel's statement is particularly inopportune, amidst the talks in Cairo seeking cease-fire proposal, as the EU's Javier Solana travels to the Middle East to meet President Obama's envoy George Mitchell and Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak

4:45 p.m. Turkish Manoeuvres. Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, having distanced Turkey from Israel at the start of the Gaza conflict and thus moving closer to Syria and Iran, has taken another public step today. Speaking to the London-based newspaper Al-Hayat, Erdogan said, "Hamas, without a doubt, erred by firing rockets at Israel, but immediately added:

We must consider that Hamas fully abided by the truce agreement with Israel for six months, even though Israel did not. Israel didn't do anything to lift the blockade and open the crossings despite the agreement, and provoked Hamas and Gazans.

Erdogan offered Turkish forces to monitor borders "if they are required to stabilize the truce between Hamas and Israel". He made clear, however, that Hamas had to be recognised openly and, possibly with an eye to the movement's strengthening political position, that "everyone must honor the [forthcoming] Palestinian Authority elections."

In a parting shot at Tel Aviv, Erdogan said, "I am not against the Israeli people, but I am against its political leadership and those who back barbaric killing."

3:30 p.m. Reconciliation? Amidst a relatively quiet day, a possible breakthrough: Hamas and Fatah officials have met for the first time in 10 months. Jamal Abu Hashem of Hamas and Azzam al-Ahmed of Fatah held the discussions as part of the talks in Cairo seeking proposals on a cease-fire and opening of border crossings.

Of course, this is only a small step forward: al-Ahmed told a press conference, "I agreed with [Abu Hashem] in a clear way to have another meeting."

9:30 a.m. A reader, noting yesterday's story that the Israeli Government has authorised a legal defence team for any military officers accused of war crimes, has asked us about the background to the story.

A search on Enduring America for "white phosphorous", "dense inert metal explosives", or "Spike missile" and glance at the stories will give you some idea of the scale of the allegations against Israel. For example, this was our first reference to Israel's apparent use of white phosphorous against civilians, posted on 5 January, two days after the Israeli ground invasion:

6:30 p.m. Following story in The Times of London that Israel used white phosphorous bombs to cover its ground invasion, Moussa el-Haddad, Gaza resident and father of blogger Laila el-Haddad (”Gazamom”), reports “series of bombs in a row, followed by a large white halo, white smoke; people in vicinity cannot breathe…irritation, and exposed areas [of body] become red, blistered, and itchy".

8 a.m. Israel/Gaza/Palestine time: No Israeli reaction yet to yesterday's news of a Hamas offer of a 12-month cease-fire, including an opening of border crossings and European Union and Turkish monitors.

Our colleagues at Alive in Gaza have posted an audio update and photographs from photojournalist Sameh Habeeb, "Empty Tunnels and Terrorist Chickens".

It's Morning in America: The Day After The Inauguration

Related Post: Your Obama on Top of the World Updates
Related Post: Welcome to the World, Mr President - Afghanistan and Pakistan
Related Post: Obama Orders Suspension of Military Commissions at Guantanamo Bay

5:30 p.m. Thanks for joining us today. It's a bit early for a Day 1 Assessment, as there may be developments in the next few hours while we have some downtime. As expected, Obama made the high-profile announcement of Guantanamo's closure, although the impact was limited by the 12-month timeframe (a concession to the political and legal obstacles to shifting the detainees). He made the first symbolic step of US re-entry into the Israel-Palestine arena with calls to Ehud Olmert and Mahmoud Abbas --- the expected appointment of George Mitchell as special envoy is still awaited. On the bureaucratic front, Hillary Clinton's confirmation as Secretary of State came through.

The most significant event, however, was the National Security Council meeting with top military commanders over Afghanistan and Pakistan. And, as I type this, still no news --- no spin, no leaks, no hints --- of what steps will be confirmed. Similarly, the re-affirmation of a 16-month timetable for US combat troops from Iraq still hasn't been made.

Back for Day 2 tomorrow morning....



5:05 p.m. Hillary Clinton has been confirmed by the Senate as Secretary of State 94-2. The two Republican spoilsports? David Vitter of Louisiana and Jim DeMint of South Carolina.

5 p.m. The War on Terror - The Obama Legacy Begins: Taking a leaf from the America-Will-Love-Bush-One-Day crew who have been frantically spinning this week, a reader notes, "I would like to point out that there have been no terrorist attacks under President Obama."

3:15 p.m. Immunity Now, Immunity Forever. Senate Republicans have stalled the confirmation of Eric Holder, the nominee for Attorney General, for one week to get an assurance that there will be no prosecutions of anyone involved in torture.

2:05 p.m. Desperate Republican Comment of the Day (2): After the attempt to turn a Carter-Clinton non-feud into the downfall of the Democrats, GOP bloggers are going after the size of the crowd on the Mall yesterday: "An ASU journalism professor using satellite images calculated that 800,000 people attended President Barack Obama’s inauguration ceremony."

Oh, my, "only" 800,000. That's a pathetic turnout compared to, say, the massive 400,000 who showed up for George W. Bush in 2005.

(Desperate Republican Comment of the Day (1) is at 2:55 a.m.)

1:55 p.m. Reuters has now obtained a draft copy, although it does not reprint it, of Obama's order to close Camp X-Ray by January 2010. There will be an immediate review of how to deal with all remaining detainees. AP has a copy and prints a few extracts covering the main points: the closure "would further the national security and foreign policy interests of the United States and the interests of justice".

12:17 p.m. Unconfirmed reports that Obama has order closure of Guantanamo Bay detention facility within a year.

12:15 p.m. Obama has called Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert as well as Palestinian Authority head Mahmoud Abbas.

10:55 a.m. Confirmation that Obama called the head of the Palestinian Authority on Wednesday: "Obama reiterated that he and his administration will work in full partnership with President [Mahmoud] Abbas to achieve peace in the region," Saeb Erekat, the PA's chief negotiator, said.

No word on whether Obama calls the leaders of Hamas. (cross-posted from The Israeli Invasion of Gaza: Updates)

10:40 a.m. Obama's initial meeting today on Iraq and Afghanistan, in addition to members of his National Security Council such as Secretary of Defense Robert Gates, will include the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Adm. Mike Mullen, General David Petraeus of US Central Command, and, by videoconference, General David McKiernan, the top commander in Afghanistan, and General Ray Odierno, the top commander in Iraq.

9:40 a.m. What's Happening inIraq: a bomb has killed four people in Baghdad. The target was a university dean who is also a member of the Sunni Islamic Party. Another bomb near Tikrit has killed five policemen and wounded three.

On the up side, US and Iraqi authorities have opened a water-treatment plant in Sadr City, a poor section of Baghdad, only 3 1/2 years after it was begun.

9:30 a.m. In case you think our earlier reference to the intense discussion of Michelle Obama's dress and designer Jason Wu was just a cultural blip in America's priorities: The Washington Post covers Page One with a story on Michelle's entire wardrobe:

For the historic moment when she became this country's first African American first lady, Obama chose a lemon-grass yellow, metallic sheath with a matching coat by the Cuban-born designer Isabel Toledo. The dress followed her curves -- paying special attention to the hips -- and announced that the era of first lady-as-rectangle had ended.

8:55 a.m. A judge has just approved Obama's order suspending military commissions at Guantanamo Bay for 120 days.

8:45 a.m. There's something disconcerting about watching four Americans discuss Obama's Inaugural Speech and politics...on Iran's Press TV. They are generally "disappointed" in the speech and are now having a detailed --- and interesting --- discussion of Obama's approach to Israel, Palestine, and Gaza.

7:25 a.m. Before flying to Washington, General David Petraeus meets Afghanistan President Hamid Karzai. Karzai office issues neutral statement, "During this visit, they discussed and exchanged views on their common relations, how to effectively combat regional terrorism and the way to prevent civilian casualties and gain the trust of the people."

Karzai had told the Afghan Parliament earlier inthe day that civilian deaths at the hands of foreign troops was an important source of instability in Afghanistan. Up to 25 civilians reportedly died in an American attack on Tuesday.

7:15 a.m. Vice Premier Haim Ramon to Israel radio: "Let's not fear President Obama. I am convinced that President Obama and his team want to achieve what is essential to Israel -- two states for two peoples." (cross-posted from The Israel Invasion of Gaza: Updates)

6:15 a.m. Uh-oh, a Cheese-Eating Surrender Monkey rebuff for Obama. In advance of the President's meeting with General Petraeus (see separate post), French Defence Minister Herve Morin has ruled out any additional French troops for Afghanistan: "We have made the necessary effort. Considering additional reinforcements is out of the question for now."

5:40 a.m. Juan Cole also offers a cold shower of reality this morning, noting the killing of seven and wounding of 22, including two US soldiers, in Iraq yesterday. Cole also offers a necessary and timely analysis of the upcoming Iraqi elections on 31 January.

And, just to cast some light of hope, Cole refers to an emotional and telling Inaugural moment when "US troops in Iraq shed tears of joy for Obama" --- light years away from the narrative of the US military's rejection of the last Democratic President, Bill Clinton.

4 a.m. Press TV of Iran's top stories: 1) Iran wants Israeli leaders to stand trial for war crimes; 2) Israel withdraws from Gaza; 3) Obama promises "better relations" with Muslim world. Al Jazeera focuses on Obama's likely appointment of former Senator George Mitchell as his Middle East envoy.

3:30 a.m. But Not Quite A New Morning in China, as the BBC reports:

China has censored parts of the new US president's inauguration speech that have appeared on a number of websites. Live footage of the event on state television also cut away from Barack Obama when communism was mentioned. China's leaders appear to have been upset by references to facing down communism and silencing dissent.

3 a.m. Definitely One to Watch: General David Petraeus, the commander of the US military's Central Command with responsibility for the Persian Gulf and Central Asia, returns to Washington today to brief Obama. Yesterday Petraeus had extensive discussions with Pakistani political and military leaders.

2:55 a.m. Desperate Republican Comment of the Day. Don Irvine, the head of Accuracy in Media (accuracy as in "We Won Vietnam", "Last Eight Years Fantastic", "ABC News Flunks Race Test"), sees the downfall of the Democratic Party at the Inauguration:

As [Jimmy] Carter passed fellow Democrats Bill and Hillary Clinton, the two men did not appear to acknowledge each others presence at all. A total snub. This could be a very interesting four years indeed.

2:50 a.m. One more comparison for the record: while the Obama Inaugural celebrations ranged from Pete Seeger to Bruce Springsteen to Aretha Franklin, former President George W Bush's return to Midland, Texas was welcomed by "country music performers Rodney Atkins, the Gatlin Brothers and Lee Greenwood".

2:40 a.m. Israeli officials are busily telling the press that "Barack Obama is a 'true friend of Israel' who identifies emotionally not only with the state, but also with the people of Israel". (cross-posted from The Israeli Invasion of Gaza: Updates)

1:59 a.m. And just to bring out our previous point, Alive in Gaza has posted an audio interview with photojournalist Sameh Hameeb on his perceptions of what Obama's inauguration means for Gaza: "Obama neglected the Palestinians."

1:45 a.m. Global Contrasts: There has been a sharp division, as soon as Obama's image ended, in broadcast coverage between US channels and those overseas.

While US outlets such as Fox and CNN focused on the parade, the parties, and the first formal signing of documents by President Obama, the BBC and Al Jazeera have been all over the question, "What Next?" The best and most detailed analysis and questions have come from Al Jazeera, who had incisive panel discussions on Guantanamo Bay, Israel-Palestine-Gaza, Iraq, Iran, and the US Economy last evening.

This morning, while CNN concentrates on Michelle Obama's Inaugural Gown and Fox has a "presidential historian" burbling over "the peaceful transfer of power...Bush and Obama got along so well", Al Jazeera is focusing on Obama's promise of "mutual respect" for the Muslim world. This is unsurprising, of course, given Al Jazeera's core location and audience, but it still points to the immediate scrutiny that President Obama will face on his first full day in office.

Morning update (1:40 a.m. in Washington):

Even as we finally called it a night in Britain, the parties, the enthusiam, and the energy were still going strong in the United States.

I'm just watching a recording of Obama's speech to the Youth Ball, where he gave a possibly impropmptu speech which was better than his prepared one at the Inaugural:

Young people everywhere are in the process of imagining something different than what has come before. Where there is war, they imagine peace. Where there is hunger, they imagine people being able to feed themselves. Where there is disease, they imagine a public health system that can work for everybody. Where they [see] bigotry, they imagine togetherness.

And so he closed, to "Yes We Can" chanting from the crowd, "I promise you that America will get stronger and more united, more prosperous, more secure. You are going to make it happen."

So, hours after reacting to the Inaugural with a mixture of hope and concern, I'm indulging in a bit of hope with a cup of tea. Now to see what the Day After brings.

The Israeli Invasion of Gaza: Updates (21 January)

See also: It's Morning in America: The Day after the Inauguration

12:10 a.m. United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon has reported to the UN Security Council after his trip to Gaza and Israel, and he's just a bit upset. Speaking about (or rather having his deputy speak, as Ban had lost his voice) the "several incidents of outrageous attacks against U.N. facilities," Ban said, "I expect to receive a full explanation of each incident and that those responsible will be held accountable for their actions."

This does not make up for the UN leadership's impotence in this conflict --- Ban admitted a "collective political failure" --- but at least it shows that, once he realised how badly Israel had damaged his facilities and threatened his staff, Ban could put his de facto support of Tel Aviv into a critical context.

10:20 p.m. Trying to counter Israeli Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni's courtship of European nations to join Israeli effort to isolate Hamas further, Hamas leader Khaled Meshaal has made his own appeal: "I tell European nations ... three years of trying to eliminate Hamas is enough. It is time for you to deal with Hamas, which has gained legitimacy through struggle."

Meshaal may have an opportunity. France, rather quietly, indicated Tuesday that it may be ready to talk to Hamas, even in advance of the organisation's recognition of Israel.



9:45 p.m. Israeli Prime Ministerial candidate and Minister of Defense Ehud Barak blows smoke: ""The IDF has drastically changed the unbearable reality in Israeli communities surrounding the Gaza Strip. This outstanding operation has increased Israel's deterrence in the entire region; the IDF's clear victory was the result of meticulous planning and skilled execution."

Even if you accept the red herring of stopping Hamas' rocket fire --- when regime change was the primary aim of the Israeli operation --- Israel is in the same position that it was, say, from June-October 2008. Politically, it is no better and, possibly, worse off.

8:45 p.m. Israeli Supreme Court has reversed the ban on two Arab political parties, imposed last week, from standing in next month's elections.

7:45 p.m. Alive in Gaza has posted its latest written report from correspondents in Gaza. The correspondents report general calm, but there are naval battles between Israeli and Palestinian forces and a child has died after stepping on an unexploded cluster bomb.

7:35 p.m. Welcome to the New White House Spin Zone. Press secretary Robert Gibbs passes on news of the Obama calls to Olmert and Abbas, "He used this opportunity on his first day in office to communicate his commitment to active engagement in pursuit of Arab-Israeli peace from the beginning of his term, and to express his hope for their continued cooperation and leadership."

Surprisingly, there was no reference to a call to Hamas.

7:25 p.m. Shhhh, don't tell the Israeli Air Force: local residents say some smuggling tunnels between Egypt and Gaza have reopened.

7:15 p.m. Obama has called Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert as well as Palestinian Authority head Mahmoud Abbas.

5:55 p.m. Confirmation that Obama called the head of the Palestinian authority on Wednesday: “Obama reiterated that he and his administration will work in full partnership with President [Mahmoud] Abbas to achieve peace in the region,” Saeb Erekat, the PA’s chief negotiator, said.

No word on whether Obama called the leaders of Hamas.

5:05 p.m. A Belgian court has been petitioned by attorneys, of behalf of French and Belgian relatives of slain Gazans, to arrest Israeli Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni when she arrives in Brussels later on Wednesday.

4:30 p.m. Hamas reasserts control over security in Gaza: an Interior Ministry spokesman says, "The internal security service was instructed to track collaborators and hit them hard. They arrested dozens of collaborators who attempted to strike the resistance by giving information to the occupation about the fighters."

4:15 p.m. In an excellent article in today's New York Times, Sabrina Tavernise speaks with Gazan residents whose farming village was reduced "to rubble":

In [Juhr el Dik's] center is now a giant swath of destruction where about 40 houses once stood. “It’s an earthquake,” said Salim Abu Ayadah, the mayor of the town, whose house was among those destroyed. “When I saw it, I couldn’t believe my eyes. I couldn’t walk.”

2:15 p.m. Vice Premier Haim Ramon to Israel radio: "Let's not fear President Obama. I am convinced that President Obama and his team want to achieve what is essential to Israel -- two states for two peoples."

2:10 p.m. Estimated cost of reconstruction of Gaza: $2 billion

12:30 p.m. No Kidding Story of the Day: "Egypt dominance as Mideast mediator in doubt" (Reuters may want to make the minor correction, however, that Egypt was never a mediator in this conflict, rather a channel to achieve Israel's aims as well as Cairo's).

12:20 p.m. Iran says that "Palestinian resistance", not-too-subtle code for Hamas, has right to arms. (Not news to me --- in an interview for Iranian News Agency on Monday, I was asked several times in several ways if Gaza should have "tanks and helicopters" for self-defence)

11:10 a.m. Ayman Moyheldin of Al Jazeera reports firing by Israeli navy off Gaza coast, although it is unclear whether it was aiming at shore targets or deterring Gazan fishermen. Israeli forces still massed on Israel's side of the border.

11:05 a.m. Israeli Defense Forces come close to admission to use of white phosphorous, with spokeswoman Amital Leibovich insisting, "We used munitions according to international law." More significantly, "Ma'ariv reported that the IDF had privately admitted using phosphorus bombs and that the Judge Advocate General's Office and Southern Command were investigating."

11 a.m. Press TV of Iran's top stories: 1) Iran wants Israeli leaders to stand trial for war crimes; 2) Israel withdraws from Gaza; 3) Obama promises "better relations" with Muslim world. Al Jazeera focuses on Obama's likely appointment of former Senator George Mitchell as his Middle East envoy.

9:40 a.m. Israeli officials are busily telling the press that "Barack Obama is a 'true friend of Israel' who identifies emotionally not only with the state, but also with the people of Israel".

Morning update (9:30 a.m. Israel/Gaza time): The Israeli Army did not complete its withdrawal from Gaza in time for the Obama Inauguration, but it has now stated that all units have left the area.

No further moves on the diplomatic or humanitarian front, especially on the issue of rebuilding Gaza. However, the Israeli YNetNews is reporting that European Union Foreign Ministers will announce on Wednesday "their intention to contribute units, vessels, and technological means in order to curb weapon transfers from Iran to Hamas". Just as intriguing is the claim that "Israel and Western countries are currently engaged in a race against Iran in an effort to prevent Tehran from leading the Gaza reconstruction efforts".

Our colleagues at Alive in Gaza have posted an interesting audio interview with photojournalist Sameh Habeeb on Gazan reaction to the arrival of President Obama --- "Obama neglected the Palestinians" --- as well as a transcript of an earlier interview during the conflict.

The Israeli Invasion of Gaza: Rolling Updates (16 January)

Later Updates: The Israeli Invasion of Gaza (17 January)
Latest post: Israeli Newspaper Details Israel’s Use of Illegal Weapons in Gaza
Latest post: Gaza --- It’s Not Necessarily All About Tehran

Late evening update (2 a.m. Israel/Gaza time): Relatively quiet on all fronts the last few hours. A hectic diplomatic day but a comparatively quiet military day, as Israeli troops battled with "at least 20 armed gunmen" Friday and five civilians were wounded when 15 rockets were fired into southern Israel.

Everyone is drawing breath, but it will pick up in several hours. Saturday is the day that Israel makes its move and puts all other actors on the spot, as the Cabinet declares a unilateral ceasefire. It is a giant snub to "world opinion", saying that Tel Aviv doesn't need an international agreement to get its political and military objectives. Gaza will still be blockaded, Israel will remain freedom of action to send military forces in whenever it wants, and Hamas will go unrecognised.

The responses of other countries and groups to this move will be critical. Is Egypt's Hosni Mubarak really prepared to be tied at the hip to Israel, in pursuit of the overthrow of Hamas, even though it may damage Cairo's position in the Arab world and even threaten internal instability? Will Saudi Arabia continue to stall on meaningful cease-fire efforts or, in light of growing internal concern with the Government position, will it shift towards other Gulf States who are demanding support of Hamas and unequivocal condemnation of Israel? Can Syria and Iran press their diplomatic initiative in forging a new bloc, and can Khaled Meshaall benefit?

And what in the world is Barack Obama doing? Did his people know of the Israeli plans, given Tzipi Livni's presence in Washington today, and tacitly approve them? Or have they sat so far back that they are trailing behind these developments?

No answers, just a lot of questions. But my speculation is that tomorrow will send a re-alignment of loyalties and objectives that ensures the political battle over Gaza enters a new phase.



10:15 p.m. Al Jazeera English declares Hamas leader Khaled Meshaal as "big diplomatic victor" with appearance at Qatar summit, especially with refusal of Palestianian Authority leader Mahmoud Abbas to attend.

9:45 p.m. A piece of significant news lost in the diplomatic shuffle: Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan called for Israel to be blocked from the United Nations today.

Erdogan's declaration is not only a clear sign of the deterioration in the historically close Turkish-Israeli relationship. It is also a marker of Ankara's move towards Syria and Iran as the battlelines shape up amongst Arab states over the Gaza conflict and its aftermath.

8:30 p.m. Israel finally plays its hand: tomorrow, the Cabinet will hold a rare meeting on the Sabbath so it can vote on a unilateral ceasefire. This means Tel Aviv could declare "victory" without having to recognise Hamas. Instead of reaching a confirmed agreement on control of Gaza's borders, Israel will rely on arrangements with the United States --- including today's memorandum of understanding to block arms shipments to Hamas --- and Egypt to achieve its objectives.

This means that there may be no further military action, but there is no meaningful political settlement. The economic blockade will remain. Israel and Egypt, hoping for support from Washington, will continue to work for the re-installation of the Palestinian Authority in Gaza. Indeed, it has been already been announced that Egypt is "considering whether to organize a summit in the near future between Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas".

Since the issue is no longer whether Hamas agrees to a ceasefire, attention will turn to whether the Obama Administration supports this new Israeli manoeuvre to isolate and undermine Hamas. Equally important, the split in the Arab world may be exposed. Which way will Arab countries move? Will they support an Egypt-Israel alliance or will they take a firm line against Tel Aviv and in support of the Gazan leadership?

6:30 p.m. CNN correspondent Ben Wedeman finally gets into southern Gaza: how much local support do you think there will be for arrangements stage-managed by Cairo and Washington?

We toured an area near the border with Egypt where tunnels had been dug to get supplies into Gaza. There we saw dozens and dozens of houses completely destroyed, huge craters everywhere.

Earlier, when we caught the last bus from Egypt into Gaza, we spoke to Palestinian passengers, most of whom said they had been arrested in Egypt and abused by police before being deported. Their bitterness toward Egypt, particularly its president, Hosni Mubarak, and other Arab leaders over their perceived failure to provide support was echoed among others we spoke to.

This was matched by anger toward the United States, because most people know it supplies Israel with the warplanes bombarding them.

5:42 p.m. US and Israel sign deal to curb arms smuggling to Hamas, with Condoleezza Rice repeating the mantra that it will contribute to a "durable ceasefire". Details still not available, but Ha'aretz reports that it will include "patrols of the Persian Gulf, Sudan, and neighboring states". Diplomats said earlier that the arrangement included greater intelligence cooperation, and US technical and logistical assistance for border monitors. No US personnel will be involved on land with the border monitoring in either Gaza or Egypt.

Forgive me, but this doesn't sound like a vital component of a cease-fire agreement. Instead, it looks like US and Israel are trying to write a blank cheque to pick off "suspect" Iranian ships in international waters and to run covert and military operations in areas like Sudan.

5:40 p.m. Important clarification: Saudi Arabia did not attend today's meeting in Qatar.

5:20 p.m. Recapping on developments from the meeting in Qatar. Syrian President Bashir al-Assad has made the first big move, asking all Arab countries to cut "all direct and indirect" ties with Israel. Immediate effect is to suspend the "indirect peace negotiations" between Syria and Israel, but this is also Damascus's gambit to lead an Arab bloc against Tel Aviv and Cairo.

Al-Assad's move reinforced Hamas leader Khaled Meshaal's call for an isolation of Israel, and Qatar has now suspended relations with Tel Aviv.

5 p.m. More on the Israeli position on a cease-fire. Reuters, like Al Jazeera English, reports that Israel is pushing for a permanent ceasefire but adds our interpretation that Israel is insisting "Hamas must accept the return of Western-backed President Mahmoud Abbas's Palestinian Authority to Gaza's border crossings".

Meanwhile, one Palestinian reported killed and several wounded by Israeli forces during protest in Hebron in the West Bank. Demonstrations took place in towns despite Israeli attempts to close off the West Bank for 48 hours.

4:35 p.m. Well, well. The Israeli newspaper Ha'aretz has broken ranks to ask, "Is Israel using illegal weapons in its offensive on Gaza?" The story by Amira Haas uses reports and witnesses to answer Yes with the level of detail beyond that in American and British reports. Further information is in a separate post.



4:25 p.m. Interesting twist on the diplomatic front: Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov says Moscow is "sending...signals to representatives of Hamas, and those states which have influence on Hamas", i.e. Iran and Syria, to support the Egyptian proposals.

Another sign that the Syrian and Iranian Governments and in particular Syrian leader Bashir al-Assad are big winners in this crisis....

4:15 p.m. A quick P.S. from "Rafah Kid": "The bulldozers are back on top of us again."

4 p.m. While trying to hold the line diplomatically, Israel is pursuing the other part of its plan to take Hamas out of power: "decapitation".

The Israelis are continuing their attempts to assassinate Hamas leaders. Having killed Saed Siam on Thursday but failed to "liquidate", as the US used to call it, military leader Mahmud az-Zahar, Tel Aviv has a partial short-term success. The question remains, however: how many Hamas leaders would have to be slain before the movement collapsed? I think the number is far more than Israel can achieve in the window before a cease-fire has to be agreed.

2 p.m. No significant updates on the Israeli position from talks in Cairo and later in Washington. For the moment, attention is on a sideshow --- important not for immediate Gaza situation but for Arab and Middle Eastern politics --- in Qatar. In addition to the Gulf States and Iran, Hamas and the Palestinian groups Islamic Jihad and the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP) are present.

There is a clear possibility here, if the Gaza crisis continues, of a split in the Arab states and regional powers between those trying to isolate Hamas (notably Egypt and Saudi Arabia) and those backing the organisation and groups beyond Fatah (not only Syria but also Iran and Turkey).

12:20 p.m. "Rafah Kid", taking advantage of a few hours of electricity, has posted a short blog and photos from Rafah in southern Gaza.

12:15 p.m. Joshua Landis, in addition to some incisive comments on future US policy towards Syria, gets to the point on the next President and Israel/Palestine:

Obama’s support for Israel’s destruction of Hamas is not promising. If the US supports Israel’s continued efforts to hunt down Hamas’ leaders and kill them, the situation will be bleak. If Hamas is effectively decapitated, diplomacy will have little future for the Palestinians.

12:10 p.m. Bit of a twist that we had missed on the meeting of some Arab countries in Qatar: Egypt won't be there but Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmedinejad will be making an appearance. The dynamics, especially between Iran and Saudi Arabia, are worth watching.

11:45 a.m. More notable is Ban's effusive praise of the PA for its achievements over the last three years. He makes clears that "they are the democratically elected leadership" of Palestine --- a bit curious in light of the 2006 elections in Gaza --- as he presses his call for "the unity of the Palestinians....Only you, the Palestinians, can do this."

Ban either has no comprehension of the complexities in Gazan politics and society, or he is happily marching along with the Israel-US blueprint for PA at the head of Gaza as well as the West Bank. I'm starting to believe the former.

11:40 a.m. United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon now speaking at press conference with Palestinian Authority leader (depeand present/former (depending on your point of view) West Bank Prime Minister Salam Fayyad. He calls for a "sustainable" ceasefire --- "there is no time to lose" --- but thinks that an agreement is "very close".

Nothing too stunning there, especially in substance.

11:05 a.m. Al Jazeera's Mouin Rabbani believes two issues in cease-fire talks: Israel demand for permanent cessation, which Hamas rejects without permanent end to Israeli occupation of Gaza and West Bank, and Israel desire for international monitors on Egyptian side of border, which Cairo views as infringement on its sovereignty.

11 a.m. Israeli shelling continues as Friday prayers begin. Large funeral procession expected for Hamas leader Saed Siam.

10:16 a.m. Israel continues to stall on the diplomatic front while keeping military options open: Gaza offensive could be entering its "final act" but the extent of operations and length of time of that act kept open.

10:15 a.m. Oh, yes, the Gulf Cooperation Council states meet in Qatar today to discuss Gaza. There will be little of direct effect upon the conflict, especially since Egypt is pointedly staying away from the meeting. More intriguing will be inter-Arab politics, reading for example the position that Saudi Arabia takes.

9:50 a.m. Al Jazeera's Ayman Moyheldin: Gaza death toll 1133 with 5200 injured.

9:30 a.m. Our colleagues at "Alive in Gaza" have posted another audio interview with photojournalist Sameh Habeeb from Gaza City: "Drones in the Air".

9:15 a.m. Palestinian Statistics Bureau: Current conflict has cost the Gazan conflict $1.4 billion.

Morning update (8:45 a.m. Israel/Gaza time): The overnight development is on the diplomatic front. It appears that Israel's manoeuvre in the cease-fire negotiations will be an attempt to get an American presence in the international force monitoring Gaza's borders and tunnels. Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni travels to Washington today and is reported to be seeking US guarantees. On Thursday, Prime Minister Ehud Olmert's office put out the line that US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice had told Olmert that "the United States would be prepared to assist in solving the issue of smuggling". Meanwhile, Ministry of Defence official Amos Gilad returns to Cairo.

Israel says it struck more than 40 Gazan targets overnight, including two Hamas outposts. Its killing of key Hamas official Saed Siam yesterday continues to resonate: according to Al Jazeera, Fatah officials are privately expressing satisfaction over Siam's death.

Gazan death toll is now more than 1110. Israeli death toll remains at 13.

There continues to be a battle in the media between Israel's projection of its military success and the controversy over its shelling of civilian targets, including its use of white phosphorous. Speaking about the Israeli attack on the United Nations compound, UN official John Ging applied the "duck test" (if it walks likes a duck, quacks like a duck, etc.): ""It looks like phosphorus, it smells like phosphorus and it's burning like phosphorus. That's why I'm calling it phosphorus."