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Entries in Iraq (5)

Thursday
Jan292009

Enduring America on the Road Today

I'll be in Dublin today for a one-day conference, held by our partners at the Clinton Institute, on the US and the World after Bush. It should be an eye-opener on how diplomats in Europe, as well as top US academics, are perceiving the new Obama approach, US-European relations, and the global American position.

Updates today and early tomorrow on Obama foreign policy and on the Middle East will be limited, but Canuckistan is keeping an eye out for any major news and you can help us out with tips in the Comment section. Meanwhile, we've got some great analysis coming out today on Iraq, Turkish-Israeli relations, and Life Beyond Mars in South Miami Beach.
Tuesday
Jan272009

A Middle East Economic Fact for Your Kind Consideration

According to India’s Strategic Foresight Group, the conflict between Israel and Arab countries, the Persian Gulf Wars of 1991 and from 2003, tensions between Iran and Israel, activities of al-Qaeda, and fights between Hamas and Fatah since 1991 have cost countries in the region $12 trillion.

According to the report, if peace opportunies had not been missed in 1991, individuals of the region would be 50% wealthier. Gross Domestic Product per capita in Israel would be $44,241 instead of $23,304, and it would be $2,427 instead of $1,220 in Gaza and the West Bank.

Wednesday
Jan212009

It's Morning in America: The Day After The Inauguration

obamas-dancing

Related Post: Your Obama on Top of the World Updates
Related Post: Welcome to the World, Mr President - Afghanistan and Pakistan
Related Post: Obama Orders Suspension of Military Commissions at Guantanamo Bay

5:30 p.m. Thanks for joining us today. It's a bit early for a Day 1 Assessment, as there may be developments in the next few hours while we have some downtime. As expected, Obama made the high-profile announcement of Guantanamo's closure, although the impact was limited by the 12-month timeframe (a concession to the political and legal obstacles to shifting the detainees). He made the first symbolic step of US re-entry into the Israel-Palestine arena with calls to Ehud Olmert and Mahmoud Abbas --- the expected appointment of George Mitchell as special envoy is still awaited. On the bureaucratic front, Hillary Clinton's confirmation as Secretary of State came through.

The most significant event, however, was the National Security Council meeting with top military commanders over Afghanistan and Pakistan. And, as I type this, still no news --- no spin, no leaks, no hints --- of what steps will be confirmed. Similarly, the re-affirmation of a 16-month timetable for US combat troops from Iraq still hasn't been made.

Back for Day 2 tomorrow morning....



5:05 p.m. Hillary Clinton has been confirmed by the Senate as Secretary of State 94-2. The two Republican spoilsports? David Vitter of Louisiana and Jim DeMint of South Carolina.

5 p.m. The War on Terror - The Obama Legacy Begins: Taking a leaf from the America-Will-Love-Bush-One-Day crew who have been frantically spinning this week, a reader notes, "I would like to point out that there have been no terrorist attacks under President Obama."

3:15 p.m. Immunity Now, Immunity Forever. Senate Republicans have stalled the confirmation of Eric Holder, the nominee for Attorney General, for one week to get an assurance that there will be no prosecutions of anyone involved in torture.

2:05 p.m. Desperate Republican Comment of the Day (2): After the attempt to turn a Carter-Clinton non-feud into the downfall of the Democrats, GOP bloggers are going after the size of the crowd on the Mall yesterday: "An ASU journalism professor using satellite images calculated that 800,000 people attended President Barack Obama’s inauguration ceremony."

Oh, my, "only" 800,000. That's a pathetic turnout compared to, say, the massive 400,000 who showed up for George W. Bush in 2005.

(Desperate Republican Comment of the Day (1) is at 2:55 a.m.)

1:55 p.m. Reuters has now obtained a draft copy, although it does not reprint it, of Obama's order to close Camp X-Ray by January 2010. There will be an immediate review of how to deal with all remaining detainees. AP has a copy and prints a few extracts covering the main points: the closure "would further the national security and foreign policy interests of the United States and the interests of justice".

12:17 p.m. Unconfirmed reports that Obama has order closure of Guantanamo Bay detention facility within a year.

12:15 p.m. Obama has called Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert as well as Palestinian Authority head Mahmoud Abbas.

10:55 a.m. Confirmation that Obama called the head of the Palestinian Authority on Wednesday: "Obama reiterated that he and his administration will work in full partnership with President [Mahmoud] Abbas to achieve peace in the region," Saeb Erekat, the PA's chief negotiator, said.

No word on whether Obama calls the leaders of Hamas. (cross-posted from The Israeli Invasion of Gaza: Updates)

10:40 a.m. Obama's initial meeting today on Iraq and Afghanistan, in addition to members of his National Security Council such as Secretary of Defense Robert Gates, will include the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Adm. Mike Mullen, General David Petraeus of US Central Command, and, by videoconference, General David McKiernan, the top commander in Afghanistan, and General Ray Odierno, the top commander in Iraq.

9:40 a.m. What's Happening inIraq: a bomb has killed four people in Baghdad. The target was a university dean who is also a member of the Sunni Islamic Party. Another bomb near Tikrit has killed five policemen and wounded three.

On the up side, US and Iraqi authorities have opened a water-treatment plant in Sadr City, a poor section of Baghdad, only 3 1/2 years after it was begun.

9:30 a.m. In case you think our earlier reference to the intense discussion of Michelle Obama's dress and designer Jason Wu was just a cultural blip in America's priorities: The Washington Post covers Page One with a story on Michelle's entire wardrobe:

For the historic moment when she became this country's first African American first lady, Obama chose a lemon-grass yellow, metallic sheath with a matching coat by the Cuban-born designer Isabel Toledo. The dress followed her curves -- paying special attention to the hips -- and announced that the era of first lady-as-rectangle had ended.

8:55 a.m. A judge has just approved Obama's order suspending military commissions at Guantanamo Bay for 120 days.

8:45 a.m. There's something disconcerting about watching four Americans discuss Obama's Inaugural Speech and politics...on Iran's Press TV. They are generally "disappointed" in the speech and are now having a detailed --- and interesting --- discussion of Obama's approach to Israel, Palestine, and Gaza.

7:25 a.m. Before flying to Washington, General David Petraeus meets Afghanistan President Hamid Karzai. Karzai office issues neutral statement, "During this visit, they discussed and exchanged views on their common relations, how to effectively combat regional terrorism and the way to prevent civilian casualties and gain the trust of the people."

Karzai had told the Afghan Parliament earlier inthe day that civilian deaths at the hands of foreign troops was an important source of instability in Afghanistan. Up to 25 civilians reportedly died in an American attack on Tuesday.

7:15 a.m. Vice Premier Haim Ramon to Israel radio: "Let's not fear President Obama. I am convinced that President Obama and his team want to achieve what is essential to Israel -- two states for two peoples." (cross-posted from The Israel Invasion of Gaza: Updates)

6:15 a.m. Uh-oh, a Cheese-Eating Surrender Monkey rebuff for Obama. In advance of the President's meeting with General Petraeus (see separate post), French Defence Minister Herve Morin has ruled out any additional French troops for Afghanistan: "We have made the necessary effort. Considering additional reinforcements is out of the question for now."

5:40 a.m. Juan Cole also offers a cold shower of reality this morning, noting the killing of seven and wounding of 22, including two US soldiers, in Iraq yesterday. Cole also offers a necessary and timely analysis of the upcoming Iraqi elections on 31 January.

And, just to cast some light of hope, Cole refers to an emotional and telling Inaugural moment when "US troops in Iraq shed tears of joy for Obama" --- light years away from the narrative of the US military's rejection of the last Democratic President, Bill Clinton.

4 a.m. Press TV of Iran's top stories: 1) Iran wants Israeli leaders to stand trial for war crimes; 2) Israel withdraws from Gaza; 3) Obama promises "better relations" with Muslim world. Al Jazeera focuses on Obama's likely appointment of former Senator George Mitchell as his Middle East envoy.

3:30 a.m. But Not Quite A New Morning in China, as the BBC reports:

China has censored parts of the new US president's inauguration speech that have appeared on a number of websites. Live footage of the event on state television also cut away from Barack Obama when communism was mentioned. China's leaders appear to have been upset by references to facing down communism and silencing dissent.



3 a.m. Definitely One to Watch: General David Petraeus, the commander of the US military's Central Command with responsibility for the Persian Gulf and Central Asia, returns to Washington today to brief Obama. Yesterday Petraeus had extensive discussions with Pakistani political and military leaders.

2:55 a.m. Desperate Republican Comment of the Day. Don Irvine, the head of Accuracy in Media (accuracy as in "We Won Vietnam", "Last Eight Years Fantastic", "ABC News Flunks Race Test"), sees the downfall of the Democratic Party at the Inauguration:

As [Jimmy] Carter passed fellow Democrats Bill and Hillary Clinton, the two men did not appear to acknowledge each others presence at all. A total snub. This could be a very interesting four years indeed.



2:50 a.m. One more comparison for the record: while the Obama Inaugural celebrations ranged from Pete Seeger to Bruce Springsteen to Aretha Franklin, former President George W Bush's return to Midland, Texas was welcomed by "country music performers Rodney Atkins, the Gatlin Brothers and Lee Greenwood".

2:40 a.m. Israeli officials are busily telling the press that "Barack Obama is a 'true friend of Israel' who identifies emotionally not only with the state, but also with the people of Israel". (cross-posted from The Israeli Invasion of Gaza: Updates)

1:59 a.m. And just to bring out our previous point, Alive in Gaza has posted an audio interview with photojournalist Sameh Hameeb on his perceptions of what Obama's inauguration means for Gaza: "Obama neglected the Palestinians."

1:45 a.m. Global Contrasts: There has been a sharp division, as soon as Obama's image ended, in broadcast coverage between US channels and those overseas.

While US outlets such as Fox and CNN focused on the parade, the parties, and the first formal signing of documents by President Obama, the BBC and Al Jazeera have been all over the question, "What Next?" The best and most detailed analysis and questions have come from Al Jazeera, who had incisive panel discussions on Guantanamo Bay, Israel-Palestine-Gaza, Iraq, Iran, and the US Economy last evening.

This morning, while CNN concentrates on Michelle Obama's Inaugural Gown and Fox has a "presidential historian" burbling over "the peaceful transfer of power...Bush and Obama got along so well", Al Jazeera is focusing on Obama's promise of "mutual respect" for the Muslim world. This is unsurprising, of course, given Al Jazeera's core location and audience, but it still points to the immediate scrutiny that President Obama will face on his first full day in office.

Morning update (1:40 a.m. in Washington):

Even as we finally called it a night in Britain, the parties, the enthusiam, and the energy were still going strong in the United States.

I'm just watching a recording of Obama's speech to the Youth Ball, where he gave a possibly impropmptu speech which was better than his prepared one at the Inaugural:

Young people everywhere are in the process of imagining something different than what has come before. Where there is war, they imagine peace. Where there is hunger, they imagine people being able to feed themselves. Where there is disease, they imagine a public health system that can work for everybody. Where they [see] bigotry, they imagine togetherness.



And so he closed, to "Yes We Can" chanting from the crowd, "I promise you that America will get stronger and more united, more prosperous, more secure. You are going to make it happen."

So, hours after reacting to the Inaugural with a mixture of hope and concern, I'm indulging in a bit of hope with a cup of tea. Now to see what the Day After brings.
Sunday
Jan182009

The Long, Long Farewell to George Bush: The Daily Show Tribute

The Bush Administration ends on "just plain weirdness....Why me-e-e-e-e-e-e?"

Monday
Jan052009

William Kristol on Why Gazans Must Die....So We Can Defeat Iran

William Kristol argued yesterday in the New York Times that, "the conventional wisdom will be proved wrong. Israel could well succeed in Gaza":
For one thing, southern Lebanon is a substantial and hilly area, bordered by northern Lebanon and Syria, through which Hezbollah could be re-supplied, both by Syria itself and by Iran. Gaza is a flat, narrow strip, bordered by Israel, as well as by the sea and by Egypt, no friend to Hamas. By cutting off the northern part of Gaza from the southern, Israel has basically surrounded northern Gaza, creating a military situation very different from that in Lebanon in 2006.

And:
In addition, in Lebanon, Israel proclaimed war goals that it couldn’t achieve — such as retrieving its two kidnapped soldiers and disarming Hezbollah. Now the Israeli government says that it seeks to weaken Hamas, lessen its ability to fire rockets from Gaza and secure new arrangements along the Egyptian-Gaza border to prevent Hamas from re-arming. These may well be achievable goals.

Fair enough. But Kristol then attempts to portray the Israeli move into Gaza as the latest salvo in the 'war on terror':
An Israeli success in Gaza would be a victory in the war on terror — and in the broader struggle for the future of the Middle East. Hamas is only one manifestation of the rise, over the past few decades, of a terror-friendly and almost death-cult-like form of Islamic extremism. The combination of such terror movements with a terror-sponsoring and nuclear-weapons-seeking Iranian state (aided by its sidekick Syria) has produced a new kind of threat to Israel.

But not just to Israel. To everyone in the Middle East — very much including Muslims — who aren’t interested in living under the sway of extremist regimes. And to any nation, like the United States, that is a target of Islamic terror.

And then there's this:
But a defeat of Hamas in Gaza — following on the heels of our success in Iraq — would be a real setback for Iran. It would make it easier to assemble regional and international coalitions to pressure Iran. It might positively affect the Iranian elections in June. It might make the Iranian regime more amenable to dealing. [Emphasis added]

That's right. A 'success' in Gaza- like the 'success' in Iraq- "might" make the Iranian government easier for the US to deal with. Might. Might not.

Firedoglake, meanwhile, reacts to Kristol's piece thusly:
Once again the calculus is this:

-- Random indiscriminate car bomb or ill-aimed mortar -- the most awful tragedy ever (from Gaza, rocket attacks killed 15 people over 8 years).

-- Carpet bombing killing hundreds -- AWESOME!

There's never a question of proportionality as long as a Muslim is on the receiving end of Bill Kristol's notion of justice.