The Israeli Invasion of Gaza: Updates (21 January)

See also: It's Morning in America: The Day after the Inauguration

12:10 a.m. United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon has reported to the UN Security Council after his trip to Gaza and Israel, and he's just a bit upset. Speaking about (or rather having his deputy speak, as Ban had lost his voice) the "several incidents of outrageous attacks against U.N. facilities," Ban said, "I expect to receive a full explanation of each incident and that those responsible will be held accountable for their actions."

This does not make up for the UN leadership's impotence in this conflict --- Ban admitted a "collective political failure" --- but at least it shows that, once he realised how badly Israel had damaged his facilities and threatened his staff, Ban could put his de facto support of Tel Aviv into a critical context.

10:20 p.m. Trying to counter Israeli Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni's courtship of European nations to join Israeli effort to isolate Hamas further, Hamas leader Khaled Meshaal has made his own appeal: "I tell European nations ... three years of trying to eliminate Hamas is enough. It is time for you to deal with Hamas, which has gained legitimacy through struggle."

Meshaal may have an opportunity. France, rather quietly, indicated Tuesday that it may be ready to talk to Hamas, even in advance of the organisation's recognition of Israel.



9:45 p.m. Israeli Prime Ministerial candidate and Minister of Defense Ehud Barak blows smoke: ""The IDF has drastically changed the unbearable reality in Israeli communities surrounding the Gaza Strip. This outstanding operation has increased Israel's deterrence in the entire region; the IDF's clear victory was the result of meticulous planning and skilled execution."

Even if you accept the red herring of stopping Hamas' rocket fire --- when regime change was the primary aim of the Israeli operation --- Israel is in the same position that it was, say, from June-October 2008. Politically, it is no better and, possibly, worse off.

8:45 p.m. Israeli Supreme Court has reversed the ban on two Arab political parties, imposed last week, from standing in next month's elections.

7:45 p.m. Alive in Gaza has posted its latest written report from correspondents in Gaza. The correspondents report general calm, but there are naval battles between Israeli and Palestinian forces and a child has died after stepping on an unexploded cluster bomb.

7:35 p.m. Welcome to the New White House Spin Zone. Press secretary Robert Gibbs passes on news of the Obama calls to Olmert and Abbas, "He used this opportunity on his first day in office to communicate his commitment to active engagement in pursuit of Arab-Israeli peace from the beginning of his term, and to express his hope for their continued cooperation and leadership."

Surprisingly, there was no reference to a call to Hamas.

7:25 p.m. Shhhh, don't tell the Israeli Air Force: local residents say some smuggling tunnels between Egypt and Gaza have reopened.

7:15 p.m. Obama has called Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert as well as Palestinian Authority head Mahmoud Abbas.

5:55 p.m. Confirmation that Obama called the head of the Palestinian authority on Wednesday: “Obama reiterated that he and his administration will work in full partnership with President [Mahmoud] Abbas to achieve peace in the region,” Saeb Erekat, the PA’s chief negotiator, said.

No word on whether Obama called the leaders of Hamas.

5:05 p.m. A Belgian court has been petitioned by attorneys, of behalf of French and Belgian relatives of slain Gazans, to arrest Israeli Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni when she arrives in Brussels later on Wednesday.

4:30 p.m. Hamas reasserts control over security in Gaza: an Interior Ministry spokesman says, "The internal security service was instructed to track collaborators and hit them hard. They arrested dozens of collaborators who attempted to strike the resistance by giving information to the occupation about the fighters."

4:15 p.m. In an excellent article in today's New York Times, Sabrina Tavernise speaks with Gazan residents whose farming village was reduced "to rubble":

In [Juhr el Dik's] center is now a giant swath of destruction where about 40 houses once stood. “It’s an earthquake,” said Salim Abu Ayadah, the mayor of the town, whose house was among those destroyed. “When I saw it, I couldn’t believe my eyes. I couldn’t walk.”

2:15 p.m. Vice Premier Haim Ramon to Israel radio: "Let's not fear President Obama. I am convinced that President Obama and his team want to achieve what is essential to Israel -- two states for two peoples."

2:10 p.m. Estimated cost of reconstruction of Gaza: $2 billion

12:30 p.m. No Kidding Story of the Day: "Egypt dominance as Mideast mediator in doubt" (Reuters may want to make the minor correction, however, that Egypt was never a mediator in this conflict, rather a channel to achieve Israel's aims as well as Cairo's).

12:20 p.m. Iran says that "Palestinian resistance", not-too-subtle code for Hamas, has right to arms. (Not news to me --- in an interview for Iranian News Agency on Monday, I was asked several times in several ways if Gaza should have "tanks and helicopters" for self-defence)

11:10 a.m. Ayman Moyheldin of Al Jazeera reports firing by Israeli navy off Gaza coast, although it is unclear whether it was aiming at shore targets or deterring Gazan fishermen. Israeli forces still massed on Israel's side of the border.

11:05 a.m. Israeli Defense Forces come close to admission to use of white phosphorous, with spokeswoman Amital Leibovich insisting, "We used munitions according to international law." More significantly, "Ma'ariv reported that the IDF had privately admitted using phosphorus bombs and that the Judge Advocate General's Office and Southern Command were investigating."

11 a.m. Press TV of Iran's top stories: 1) Iran wants Israeli leaders to stand trial for war crimes; 2) Israel withdraws from Gaza; 3) Obama promises "better relations" with Muslim world. Al Jazeera focuses on Obama's likely appointment of former Senator George Mitchell as his Middle East envoy.

9:40 a.m. Israeli officials are busily telling the press that "Barack Obama is a 'true friend of Israel' who identifies emotionally not only with the state, but also with the people of Israel".

Morning update (9:30 a.m. Israel/Gaza time): The Israeli Army did not complete its withdrawal from Gaza in time for the Obama Inauguration, but it has now stated that all units have left the area.

No further moves on the diplomatic or humanitarian front, especially on the issue of rebuilding Gaza. However, the Israeli YNetNews is reporting that European Union Foreign Ministers will announce on Wednesday "their intention to contribute units, vessels, and technological means in order to curb weapon transfers from Iran to Hamas". Just as intriguing is the claim that "Israel and Western countries are currently engaged in a race against Iran in an effort to prevent Tehran from leading the Gaza reconstruction efforts".

Our colleagues at Alive in Gaza have posted an interesting audio interview with photojournalist Sameh Habeeb on Gazan reaction to the arrival of President Obama --- "Obama neglected the Palestinians" --- as well as a transcript of an earlier interview during the conflict.

The Israeli Invasion of Gaza: Updates (20 January)

See also: Chris Emery on Israeli Elections and the Gaza Crisis: What Has Changed?

12:30 a.m. That's all for today. No real diplomatic shifts, and the story of a possible full Israeli withdrawal to welcome President Obama was clearly spin.

Most dramatic development was UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon's speech when he discovered the extent of the destruction wrought by Israeli forces. Whether his emotive criticism of Tel Aviv has any effect, especially as he went straight from Gaza to a meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, is another question.

Good night and peace to all.

11:55 p.m. Israeli Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni has moved to re-define any initiatives for a settlement with Hamas, announcing in a campaign speech that Israel will not end its blockade of Gaza until there is progress in talks on the release of Gilad Shalit, an Israeli soldier held in Gaza since June 2006.

Meanwhile, Israel has re-confirmed its strategy to get the Palestinian Authority back into Gaza, declaring that any aid to the area should go through the UN, non-governmental organisations, or the PA.

11:40 p.m. The International Atomic Energy Agency will investigate complaints, lodged by ambassadors of Arab countries, that Israel has used depleted uranium in its munitions during the Gaza conflict.

11:30 p.m. Ha'aretz is reporting skirmishes in violation of the Gaza cease-fire on Tuesday. After Palestinian militants (not necessarily from Hamas) fired eight mortars, the Israeli Defense Forces launched an airstrike on the positions. Gunmen also fired on Israeli troops in two separate incidents.



9:45 p.m. Repeating the- importanfiret news from earlier today: Arab countries at the Kuwait summit have been unable to agree on how to support reconstruction in Gaza, disagreeing on whether aid can be dispersed via Hamas.

Meanwhile, it appears that the Obama Administration will name former Senator George Mitchell, who was instrumental in the negotiations of an agreement on Northern Ireland, as his envoy to the Middle East.

9:30 p.m. Hezbollah leader Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah has phoned Hamas leader Khaled Meshaal to congratulate Hamas on the "victory achieved by confronting the Zionist aggression on Gaza".

9:20 p.m. We're back after a break to live-blog the Inaugural of President Barack Obama.

Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert has been quick to offer thanks to former President George W. Bush and a welcome to Obama:

The values of democracy, brotherhood and freedom that constitute the building blocks of American society are also shared by Israeli society, together with the faith in man's power and ability to change and influence his surroundings. We wish the incoming President success in his office and are certain that we will be full partners in advancing peace and stability in the Middle East.

3:35 p.m. Al Jazeera's Mouin Rabbani on Ban's statement: "Those were very, very, very powerful words. We haven't seen a leader of this stature speak such language...condemning Israel but not the Palestinians, using the term 'Palestinian self-determination', calling for investigations and accountability....The Rubicon has been crossed here."

3:15 p.m. Ah, there he is: Ban Ki-Moon emerges, a bit shaken from his debriefing by UN staff. He is "not able to describe" how he feels about the damage and devastation, and he has "expressed his utter frustration, his utter anger" about the attack on the UN compound, asking for those responsible to be accountable.

Political questions remain: Ban continues to press the notion of "Palestinian unity", possibly without any consideration that this might imply the imposition of the Palestinian Authority upon Gaza.

2:45 p.m. UN Secretary Ban Ki-Moon is still in hiding in the UN Relief and Works Agency in Gaza. Al Jazeera has been featuring a shot of a bank of microphones on an empty podium for the last 90 minutes.

1:40 p.m. Arab leaders at Kuwait summit pledge $2 billion for Gaza reconstruction but divide sharply over how to distribute aid: Egypt and Saudi Arabia oppose direct provision to Hamas. On the symbolic front, there is some consensus with the call for Israeli political and military leaders to be tried for war crimes.

1:10 p.m. Donald Macintyre in The Independent of London has more details of the Zeitoun mass killing.

1:02 p.m. Oh, good, a fight over the military figures rather than the humanitarian toll: Israel claims more than 500 Hamas fighters killed (vs. Hamas claim of 48 and "Palestinian factions" claim of 112 plus 170 policemen), more than 12oo of Hamas' 2000 rockets destroyed, and 80 percent of tunnels shut down.

1 p.m. Robert Fisk sums up yesterday's Kuwait summit in nine words: "There was really no adequate comment for this charade."

12:50 p.m. The medical crisis continues: Nasser Medical Compound in Khan Younis has appealed to Arab nursing unions and international organizations to “urgently send nursing staff” to the Gaza Strip to fill a large void there.

12:40 p.m. I don't know if UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon is lost, or just too embarrassed to come out, but still no press conference from his visit to Gaza.

12:30 p.m. Interesting dichotomy in Gaza coverage in US and Britain: while broadcast networks have largely moved away from the news service, print journalists --- some belatedly getting access to sites and sources --- are continuing to highlight the legal and humanitarian issues. Sheera Frenkel of The Times has followed the articles in The Guardian with a human-interest story from Israeli attacks on Jabaliya, "Blind and burnt: Mahmoud, 14, young victim of banned white phosphorus shelling", and the revelation: "The Times has uncovered dozens of incidents in which doctors say that civilians have been wounded by white phosphorus."

12:15 p.m. So much for that Arab "Consensus"? Iraqi Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari has apparently told news services that delegations at the Kuwait summit "are unable to agree on a unified statement about Gaza".

10:20 a.m. Al Jazeera's Ayman Moyheldin continues to warn of possible outbreak of disease, with bodies now weeks old and sewage flowing over in many areas.

9:55 a.m. Eyewitnesses are telling Al Jazeera that Israeli troops are destroying buildings and infrastructure as they pull back in Gaza.

9:45 a.m. United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon will be in Gaza in just over an hour.

Morning Updates (8 a.m. Israel/Gaza time): The Central Bureau of Statistics in Palestine has confirmed more than 1300 Gazans have been killed and more than 5400 wounded in the conflict. More than 4,000 buildings were destroyed; another 18,000 were severely damaged. The total cost to Gaza of the invasion is more than $1.9 billion. A new and staggering figure: more than 80 percent of Gazan crops were destroyed.

Hamas has survived as the Gazan leadership, however, and it will offer a public demonstration today with a "victory rally".

Meanwhile, Barack Obama's team keep insisting that he will now enter the diplomatic arena, named a special envoy to the Middle East today. United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon will maintained his even-handed intervention with a visit to Sderot in southern Israel; there are reports he will also visit the Gaza Strip.

The Israeli Invasion of Gaza: Rolling Updates (19 January)

Earlier updates: The Israeli Invasion of Gaza (18 January)
Latest Post: Scott Lucas on BBC Radio Wales about Obama, Economy, Gaza

Photo by Sameh Habeeb (see updates at 8:45 a.m. and 10:40 a.m.)

12:50 p.m. A steady as she goes day. Israeli officials kept quiet to judge the reaction their "unilateral cease-fire" --- whether the spin that Israeli forces are withdrawing as a present to President Obama will become clear in 24 hours. Arab states chose a surface appearance of consensus over the political issues that are redefining their relations; whether that changes tomorrow will be up to Syria. Some Europeans, far too late, decided to make a push for a settlement.

And all eyes turn to Washington where a new President is inaugurated, with the question of what the US might do to re-define the Gaza equation. My own suspicion is that Obama and his advisors are playing catch-up, so don't expect much beyond the surface naming of officials and maybe envoys to consider the American approach.

Good night and peace to all.

11:45 p.m. More Better Late than Never, Europe Style: European Foreign Ministers invite their Middle Eastern counterparts to Brussels for a bit of a chinwag later this week.

9:45 p.m. Further to Rafah Kid's blog on Israeli use of white phosphorous (5:30 p.m.) and the revelations of the mass killing at Khuza'a (yesterday's updates), The Guardian of London has posted a report, accompanied by a video of white phosphorous and of the effects on civilian victims.

8:40 p.m. Better Late than Never? After Europe's ineffective performance at the start of the Gaza conflict, the European Union has tried to recover some influence. German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier has proposed, after consultations with EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana and Czech Foreign Minister Karel Schwarzenberg, the current EU President, "humanitarian action, the prevention of illicit arms trafficking, re-opening crossing points into Gaza, help with reconstruction, and a resumption of the peace process".

The significance of the move probably lies not in any potential for success but in the politics behind it: "Steinmeier wanted to ensure the United States alone did not lead diplomatic efforts in the region."

8:25 p.m. Amnesty International has criticised Israeli deployment of white phosphorous weapons: "Such extensive use of this weapon in Gaza's densely populated residential neighborhoods is inherently indiscriminate. Its repeated use in this manner, despite evidence of its indiscriminate effects and its toll on civilians, is a war crime."

An Israeli military spokesman has replied, ""In response to the claims ... relating to the use of phosphorus weapons, and in order to remove any ambiguity, an investigative team has been established in southern command to look into the issue."

8:15 p.m. Ghassan al-Khatib, former Palestinian Minister of Planning says "no ways" for reconstruction aid or materials to get into Gaza under current conditions.

I think rebuilding of Gaza might be a way off.

5:30 p.m. Rafah Kid continues to offer essential reporting from Gaza: his latest entry describes the Israeli attacks, civilian casualties, and the situation in Gazan hospitals. His description of "chemical burns" and "an unextinguished incendiary device" points to the use of white phosphorous. If Palestinians and Israelis do not agree, then an "international mechanism" will have to be found to deliver the aid.

Rafah Kid also describes the killing of a local farmer by Israeli troops after the start of the cease-fire.

5:20 p.m. Update on the Kuwait summit: shadow Arab unity? Sheikh Hamad, the Qatari Prime Minister, issued what was in effect a holding statement, praising "a reconciliation led today by [Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah] with ... the emir of Kuwait.... We left with an understanding that undoubtedly a new page had been turned that would benefit and strengthen the Arab position."

It could well be that Saudi economic clout has brought all Arab countries onto the political fence, but it would be well worth keeping an eye on the next signals out of Syria.

5:15 p.m. Welcome to the Re-Occupation, however. Israeli officials say, "Israel intends to exert control over the reconstruction of the Gaza Strip following its 22-day offensive, and is seeking guarantees that no U.N. projects will benefit Hamas."

Bottom line: no recognition of Hamas, no lifting of economic restrictions, including the "freeing" of border crossings.

5:10 p.m. Situation is little changed on military front, with no resumption of violence but no further developments on the Israeli withdrawal.

5 p.m. Have just finished set of media interviews on Obama inauguration with Birmingham radio stations and on Gaza with Iranian News Agency

2:35 p.m. Latest from the Kuwait Summit: Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas has made his plea to have some role in Gaza, though I am not sure he has thought through his suggestion of "simultaneous" Presidential and parliamentary elections: at this point, he and Fatah might be hard-pressed to win in sections of the West Bank and Gaza.

Abbas does have one vote, however: the hopeless-beyond-hapless United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon has urged Arab leaders to support Abbas as head of a Palestinian unity government. And, behind the scenes, a "senior European official" has tried to support the plan by saying that "there will be no international assistance to rebuild Gaza's infrastructure with Hamas in power".

All of this appears somewhat desperate, an impression not lost on Syrian President Bashir al-Assad as he pressed his political advantage of support for Hamas. He has called for the declaration of Israel as "a terrorist state".

Saudi Arabia, meanwhile, sits firmly on the fence. King Abdullah has tried to deflect the political issues by promising $1 billion in reconstruction assistance to Gaza --- a declaration that only has salience if Israel, backed by the US and Europe, allows the aid. He has also declared that "one drop of Palestinian blood" is worth more than all the money in the world, which I am sure will comforting any bleeding Gazans who hear the statement.

2:30 p.m. No Politics Here: Israeli sources say they will fully withdraw from Gaza before President-elect Barack Obama takes oath of office.

2:25 p.m. Meanwhile, Turkey has bailed out of the Egyptian proposals. Following Hosni Mubarak's announcement that Egypt would never accept international monitors on its side of the Egypt-Gaza border, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan has withdrawn Turkey's offer to participate in an international force.

2 p.m. Trying to recover his position, Palestinian Authority leader Mahmoud Abbas has told the Arab economic summit at Kuwait: "What is required, if we were to agree and I hope we shall agree, is a national unity government that undertakes ... lifting the (Israeli) blockade, opening the crossings, reconstruction and holding simultaneous presidential and legislative elections."

Abbas's position is tenuous because his term as President of the West Bank expired last week. The PA-controlled Ministry of Justice in Ramallah decided that Abbas's term would be extended until 25 January to coincide with the end of the legislative term, but Hamas have announced their intentions to declare an "interim" President for the West Bank.

11:40 a.m. Hamas military spokesman Abu Obeida says the organisation will re-arm despite the Israeli agreement with the US and European countries to block shipments: "Do whatever you want. Manufacturing the holy weapons is our mission and we know how to acquire weapons,"

11:30 a.m. Requiem for the United Nations leadership --- Robert Fisk in The Independent of London:

When I asked Mr Ban [UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon] if he would consider a UN war crimes tribunal in Gaza, he said this would not be for him to "determine". But only a few journalists bothered to listen to him and his officials were quickly folding up the UN flag on the table.

11:25 a.m. Donald Macintyre in The Independent of London:

Even in the darkness, we could see the piles of rubble: one had been the police station, destroyed in the heavy bombing on the first day of Israel's offensive, killing 22 Hamas policemen; another pile accounted for the houses that had been destroyed around Muntasa, a favoured children's play area and park which the Israelis say militants had used for firing rockets – residents deny the claim. The park is no more, a field of smashed masonry and concrete.

11:10 a.m. Israeli military says that it is withdrawing some reservists but regular units are holding their positions.

11:o5 a.m. "Utter devastation": With no diplomatic or military developments, Al Jazeera and Press TV are giving extensive coverage to the scale of the destruction from the Israeli assault. Other news services in Britain, including CNN, have moved to other stories.

10:40 a.m. Sometimes Internet activism works....We updated two hours ago on the removal of photojournalist Sameh Habeeb's album from the Google-owned Picasa website for "violation of Terms of Service". Well, after a lot of cyber-chatter, the album has reappeared.

9 a.m. Jerusalem Post editor David Horovitz explains the failure of Israel's efforts to achieve regime change: Gazans are too stupid to remove Hamas from power....

Unlike Hizbullah, [Hamas] cannot credibly claim to have fought bravely against the IDF. Its fighters, rather, melted away into the deepest recesses of civilian protection. And while the likes of Marzouk and his colleague Khaled Mashaal sounded consistently indomitable from the comfort and safety of the Syrian capital, the local Gaza leadership simply hid....

But will the people of Gaza, who chose Hamas as their leadership three years ago, internalize any of this?.... Will Gazans get the message? Or, confronted with the ruins all around them, will they instead redouble their hostility to Israel, forgive Hamas what was either cynicism or foolishness, and rededicate themselves to helping their elected Islamist leadership to eventually prevail over the Zionists?

8:45 a.m. More on photojournalist Sameh Habeeb, whose reports from Gaza have been a vital first-hand source during the conflict. Picasa has bravely removed his entire album of photographs because "the content...violates our Terms of Service".

8:15 a.m. Alive in Gaza has posted a new audio interview with photojournalist Sameh Habeeb in Gaza City: "No One Wants to Talk about Politics".

8:10 a.m. More background on the run-up to the conflict, this time from the humanitarian front. The UN's chief humanitarian co-ordinator in Israel, Maxwell Gaylard, says that Tel Aviv that "deliberately blocked the United Nations from building up vital food supplies in Gaza that feed a million people daily".

A spokesman for the Israeli Foreign Ministry replied that the claim is "unqualified bullshit".

Morning update (8 a.m. Israel/Gaza time): Little military action overnight, as both Israel and Hamas settled into their political and military positions. Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert says there will be a pullout "with highest possible speed" if "the cease-fire remains stable". Hamas leaders are claiming victory in their resistance to the Israeli invasion.

Almost 100 bodies were pulled out of the Gazan rubble yesterday, including 23 from the site of the Zeitoun mass killing of members of the al-Samouni clan. Despite statements from survivors that "it was an intentional massacre", the Israeli military continues to deny any responsibility: ""The [Israel Defense Forces] is not familiar with any order to civilians to enter any particular building. The IDF does not give those orders."

With the Israeli destruction and bulldozing of more than 4000 buildings and houses, ten of thousands of Gazans are homeless. Ambulances and aid, including medical supplies, are still blocked at the Egypt-Gaza border, and only a few dozen wounded Gazans were brought into Egypt for treatment.

The Israeli Invasion of Gaza: Rolling Updates (18 January)

Earlier updates: The Israeli Invasion of Gaza (17 January)
Latest Post: Hello? Gaza is Not Tehran

1 a.m. Last night we closed with: "At the very least, I’m grateful that there has been a cessation of violence in Gaza. My concern is that we’re at the start of a different phase which will not bring resolution but further hardship."

More of the same tonight. Today has been for mourning rather than dying --- only one death from violence to my knowledge, while close to 100 bodies have been pulled from the rubble. There appears to be a very gradual Israeli pullback from the edges of the cities as they re-trench in their military occupation.

The politics today was posturing, as a lot of leaders tried to figure out how to respond to Israel's unilateral "cease-fire". The Europeans appear to be paralysed, as they await a President Obama, while Egypt's Hosni Mubarak is scrambling to save his personal position. The Saudis have gone into hiding.

That means that the diplomatic baton --- perhaps unexpectedly, if you scripted this a month ago --- passes to Syria and other countries pursuing a stronger line in favour of Hamas. They will be at the Arab countries' economic summit in Kuwait tomorrow, and it will be interesting to see how forthright they take their position to Egypt and Saudi Arabia.

The main question remains: how long will Israel hold out with its re-occupation in the hope that Hamas will crumble?

Good night and peace to all.



12:30 a.m. United Nations official Chris Gunness has told Al Jazeera that 53 UN installations have been destroyed or damaged in the Gaza conflict.

12 midnight: The "other" emerging regional bloc in this conflict, with Syria as the Arab country in the lead and including Turkey and Iran, took a back seat to the Sharm el-Sheikh summit today. Tomorrow, however, all Arab states are at an economic summit in Kuwait, and you can expect manoeuvring to take the lead in the discussions over Gaza. So this comment from Syrian leader Bashir al-Assad, made on Friday at the Qatar mini-summit, might be noteworthy:

We will take care to remind our children of the Gaza slaughter. We will save the pictures of the children of Gaza with their wounds and blood, and we will teach our children that the strong believer is better than the weak. We will teach them: “An eye for an eye and a tooth for a tooth, and he who started it is the more unjust. What is taken by force will not be returned but by force.

11:25 p.m. And now Political Quick Move of the Day: apparently Bono, while performing at the Inaugural Concert for President-elect Barack Obama, just shouted out for "a Palestinian dream". As an observer noted, "Oy, the Israelis are not going to like that." (Obama, having promised not to issue any meaningful statements on Gaza until Tuesday, will react in 36 hours.)

11 p.m. Dropping objectivity for a moment to offer the Horrific Propaganda Story of the Day:

The Israeli Consulate has Twittered proudly that "Israel Opens Field Clinic at Gaza Border to Treat Palestinian Wounded": "One Palestinian woman was already being treated in the clinic eight-bed clinic that includes a pharmacy, an X-ray machine and five consultation rooms."

Hmm, this feels like offering a fella a Band-Aid after you've beaten him to a pulp. I guess it would be churlish of me to note that it would take 650 of these clinics for all the wounded from the conflict. And even more churlish to note that a lot of wounded died in the last three weeks because of appalling conditions in hospitals and Israel's bombing and shelling of medical services.

8:45 p.m. The video report of the demolition of houses and killing of at least 14 in Khuza'a is now posted on YouTube.

8 p.m. Israel military sources say to Al Jazeera and Reuters, "I can confirm that a gradual withdrawal of our forces is under way," but it is unclear how many troops are involved and how far they are pulling back. Eyewitnesses are reporting some Israeli units are moving back from edge of Gaza City, and Israeli television is showing images of tanks re-crossing border from Gaza.

Israeli military says 19 rockets fired into Israel today.

7:30 p.m. Speaking of Rafah Kid, he has video on his website of the mass killing at Khuza'a, which an article today in The Observer exposed today as a possible Israeli war crime.

7:25 p.m. Rafah Kid offers a pertinent twist on the formula, put forth at today's Sharm el-Sheikh summit, of a "secure Israel and a viable Palestine":

Ha! Imagine if written like this --- "viable Israel and a secure Palestine". Because that's the paradox that is the cause of this mess.

7:20 p.m. More than 90 bodies found today in rubble in Gaza.

4:30 p.m. Further from the Sharm al-Sheikh summit: not much of significance. Notable that King Abdullah of Jordan talked about need for Europe and US to revive the peace process but did not refer to an Arab country apart from Egypt. And United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon made a speech that was so relevant that British and Spanish Prime Ministers Brown and Zapatero could be seen laughing and chatting about other matters.

4:25 p.m. Al Jazeera's Mouin Rabbani: "This war, perhaps more than any other event in the last decade or so, has transformed peace into a dirty word and has transformed negotiations into an even dirtier word. And resistance, which had been very much a dirty word in the last 15 words, is now the word and the concept which is increasingly on the lips of the people in this region."

4:20 p.m. Al Jazeera's Mouin Rabbani has just roasted Mubarak, Sarkozy, and Brown: "I'm speechless that in 2009, you can have a major international gathering to discuss the Israel-Palestine conflict and have a whole series of keynote speeches in which the word 'occupation' is not mentions even once."

4:13 p.m. British Prime Minister Gordon Brown, who oftens play the aid card at international conferences, starts with a pledge to treble Britain's humanitarian aid to Gaza. That step, however, rests on Israeli goodwill towards aid distribution in Gaza, and Brown can only blather --- after a name-check to "President Obama" --- Europe must ensure political settlement to ensure "secure Israel and a viable Palestine".

4:10 p.m. French President Nicolas Sarkozy follows Mubarak. He initially emphasises the deal with Israel to stop arms shipments to Gaza but then delivers a stinger to Tel Aviv: "Israel should state immediately and clearly that, when rocket fire stops, the Israeli army will leave Gaza. There is no other solution for peace."

It looks like Israel may have unilaterally put itself into isolation over political and military issues in Gaza.

4 p.m This could be fun: Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak just opened the Sharm el-Sheikh conference and, after the platitudes, told Israel to "get stuffed" on any ideas of an international force monitoring the Egypt-Gaza border from the Egyptian side: "Egypt will never accept a foreign force." Mubarak also invoked an "independent Palestianian state" without using the US and Israeli formula of the Palestinian Authority as the "legitimate Palestinian Government".

3:40 p.m. Another rocket reported to have hit Ashdod about 30 minutes ago.

3:20 p.m. A bit disturbing: Barack Obama either hasn't caught up with the plot or he is so cautious that he risks putting himself in a difficult position when he takes office on Tuesday: his spokesman says Obama "welcomes Israel's ceasefire in the Gaza Strip and is committed to helping Israelis and Palestinians work toward peace".

Unlike the Bush Administration and Condoleezza Rice's statement, which focused on the Cairo talks today and looked beyond Tel Aviv to put hope in a "true" internationally-arranged cease-fire, Obama is on the verge --- unintentionally or deliberately --- of tying himself to Israel.

3:07 p.m. Clarification on the Zeitoun atrocity: the number of "95 bodies" appears to have been a misstatement in the confusion as recovery efforts were disrupted by the advance of Israeli tanks. More than 100 people were in the al-Samouni compound; in addition to the more than 30 confirmed killed last week, at least 15 bodies have been recovered today and more are in the rubble.

3:05 p.m. Al Jazeera's Ayman Moyheldin: "It's going to take years to rebuild what has been destroyed in these 22 days."

2:45 p.m. An intriguing statement from US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice which, despite Reuters' headline "US Welcomes Gaza Ceasefire", is far from a ringing endorsement.

Of course Rice did not criticise Tel Aviv, but she clearly looked beyond it when she said, "The goal remains a durable and fully respected ceasefire that will lead to stabilisation and normalisation in Gaza." In particular, Rice tried to boost the manoeuvres in Cairo today: "The United States commends Egypt for its efforts and remains deeply concerned by the suffering of innocent Palestinians. We welcome calls for immediate coordinated international action to increase assistance flows and will contribute to such efforts."

I suspect the US, like Egypt, has been a bit wrong-footed by Israel's unilateral move, and Washington is now trying to recover an international strategy towards Gaza and Hamas.

2:35 p.m. Al Jazeera's Ayman Moyheldin: "The destruction we are seeing is unimaginable." He says, "Streets have been bulldozed for kilometres", and building reduced to rubble.

2:30 p.m. An important move by Hamas: Ayman Taha has told Reuters that the Gazan organisation is ceasing fire for one week, giving Israel a chance to pull out of the territory.

2 p.m. The scale of the Zeitoun atrocity, which we noted last week, is becoming clear: medics report up to 95 bodies in the al-Samouni compound. Israeli tanks are in area, so ambulances, medical personnel, Al Jazeera's crew, and bystanders are fleeing.

1:50 p.m. Israeli military spokeswoman Amital Leibovich lays down Tel Aviv's line: "If Hamas chooses to still launch rockets, we'll answer back and we'll answer back harshly."

1:10 p.m. Israeli Government spokesman Mark Regev: "We can't talk about a timetable for withdrawal until we know the ceasefire is holding."

12:25 p.m. The first death of the "cease-fire": Gazan civilian killed by Israeli fire near Khan Younis.

11:35 a.m. The challenge to the Israeli strategy: The Observer of London offers this evaluation of Hamas, based on interviews with Gazans: "The organisation's prestige appears to have survived intact, and even emerged enhanced."

11 a.m. And The Observer of London is also preferring to look at issues beyond the "unilateral cease-fire":

Israel stands accused of perpetrating a series of war crimes during a sustained 12-hour assault on a village in southern Gaza last week in which 14 people died. In testimony collected from residents of the village of Khuza'a by the Observer, it is claimed that Israeli soldiers entering the village attempted to bulldoze houses with civilians inside; killed civilians trying to escape under the protection of white flags; opened fire on an ambulance attempting to reach the wounded; used indiscriminate force in a civilian area and fired white phosphorus shells.

10:50 a.m. The Independent of London is way off-script this morning, noting the cease-fire but leading with the headline: "'Tungsten bombs' leave Israel's victims with mystery wounds." Physicians, including the Norwegian doctor Erik Fosse who helped expose the scale of civilian casualties, detail the injuries suffered from dense inert metal explosive (DIME) weapons.

10:30 a.m. Al Jazeera's Ayman Moyheldin: 25 bodies found as Gazans dig through rubble.

10:16 a.m. Tel Aviv, attempting both to gloss its claimed victory and to turn the game back towards Iran, puts out the Hamas=Tehran line: "Israeli leaders say the pounding of Hamas dealt a blow to Iran, which Israel accuses of backing the Palestinian group, and to Hezbollah, the Shiite militia in Lebanon that fought Israel to a stalemate in 2006."

10:15 a.m. Israeli Army announces that it has launched airstrikes against sites for this morning's rocket launches.

9:50 a.m. While we think the Israeli strategy sought "regime change" in Gaza, there is another explanation: Prime Minister Ehud Olmert --- and this has been "Olmert's War" --- wanted a military victory to erase his failure in 2006 against Hezbollah. Aluf Benn in Ha'aretz sets this out, but adds, "Hamas' gains cannot be ignored: It has won international legitimacy and sympathy, and its forces still control the Gaza Strip."

9:35 a.m. Our colleague Rami Khouri to Al Jazeera: "There is no chance of any unilateral move by Israel having any success. It has to be a negotiated agreement that responds to the basic legitimate needs of both sides."

9:25 a.m. At least four rockets fired towards Sderot in southern Israel this hour. Machine-gun fire in Gaza on the ground, with constant overflights by Israeli planes.

9:20 a.m. Hamas advisor Ahmed Youssef: Israel still occupying and threatening Gaza so "we have to do something. This is not a treaty. This is not a peaceful initiative. This is nothing." If Israel withdrew, "of course" Hamas would halt operations.

Morning update (9:15 a.m. Israel/Gaza time): So Gaza awoke this morning to the "cease-fire" that isn't a cease-fire. Israel, unable to finish off Hamas militarily with a battle in the cities, now moves into a "Phase 4": Tel Aviv hopes either to finish off its Gazan enemy through further political and economic constriction or, if Hamas offers a suitable pretext through rocket fire or attacks on Israeli troops, re-starting more bombing and even more intensive ground operations.



The Israeli manoeuvre both tries to deflect growing international pressure against its Gazan strategy and to put the ball in Hamas' court. Does the Gazan leadership offer a clear sign that "resistance continues" through rocket attacks, inviting Tel Aviv to resume its military campaign, or does it sit back, hoping to win the political and diplomatic battle? The possible answer is an attempted balance between a limited number of rocket launches and a visible political campaign to free Gaza from its misery and re-occupation, but this may be difficult to achieve with the leadership so dispersed and, in some cases, operating out of hiding.

Ironically, the Israeli unilateral "cease-fire" may bring regional countries to the forefront of this crisis. Hamas needs support to withstand Tel Aviv's latest moves, and this could come from the emerging bloc led by Syria, Turkey, and Iran and supported by some Gulf countries.

Meanwhile, Egypt will try to fashion an alternative multi-national response today when it hosts leaders from the Palestinian Authority, European countries, and the United Nations, and representatives from the European Commission, Russia, and the US. (The sharp-eyed will notice that Jordan is the only other Arab country present. Saudi Arabia is staying away.) Those attending walk another tightrope: how closely do they follow Tel Aviv, for example with support for the initiative to block arms to Gaza, and how much distance do they keep given internal difficulties and the lack of a post-Hamas solution?

The Israeli Invasion of Gaza: Rolling Updates (17 January)

Later Updates: The Israeli Invasion of Gaza (18 January)

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1:15 a.m. At the very least, I'm grateful that there has been a cessation of violence in Gaza. My concern is that we're at the start of a different phase which will not bring resolution but further hardship.

Good night and peace to all.

12:30 a.m. Let's be clear: the Israeli move today is not a meaningful cease-fire. It is simply a declaration that they are going to hold their military forces in place, in effect reinstituting an armed re-occupation of Gaza.

Having failed to achieve --- so far --- its goal of removing Hamas from power, Tel Aviv is now tightening its constriction of Gaza, hoping that the economic and security situation will be so untenable that the Gazan leadership eventually put their hands up. And, if Hamas react by upping the ante with rocket fire --- in effect putting their heads above the parapet --- Israel will claim legitimacy to strike even harder with its military forces.

On the surface, it's a clever strategy --- already the cyber-campaign has been launched to claim that Israel has the moral high ground since Hamas has refused to surrender and vowed to continue resistance. But in a few days, I suspect we'll see the flaws in the grand design. Israel has already lost Egypt, its Arab partner in the scheme to overthrow Hamas, and there is a good chance it is re-fashioning a bloc in which Syria, Turkey, and Iran play leading roles. There is even a chance that Tel Aviv may lose American support for the scheme to bring back the Palestinian Authority: we shall see when the Obama Administration steps up to the plate next week.

And here's the weakness in the Israeli strategy that no one will acknowledge. If Hamas fell, who would come into power? The Palestinian Authority? No way --- Gazans who have suffered close to 1300 dead are not going to welcome back a leadership they chucked out in 2006, especially when that leadership privately aided and abetted the Israeli assault.

So that means Israel has to maintain both the economic pressure and the military presence --- either in Gaza or dangling like Damocles' sword on the border --- or pull back and accept a Gazan leadership which may be less amenable to a longer-term agreement than the present one was in mid-2008. And the longer that it maintains that pressure --- given that memories of the humanitarian cost of the last few weeks will not linger but be magnified by an Iron Lead occupation --- the further its international position will erode.



11:45 p.m. A more substantive Hamas response? Rocket hits Hetzarim airbase in Beersheba and six others land elsewhere in last hour.

11:30 p.m. Hamas has already struck back at Olmert's speech, declaring that Israel's announcement "does not end the resistance". It "reserves the right to continue resisting Israel with all means" if Israel does not withdraw and lift the blockade on Gaza.

11 p.m. Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert is making his national broadcast announcing an unilateral cease-fire, beginning at 2 a.m. Israel/Gaza time. He's declaring victory: Hamas have been dealt "a very serious blow", although they are "still not fully aware of how badly they have been damaged". Olmert is also holding up the "international agreement" to block arms to Gaza as a sign of Israel's triumph. And he is killing off any meaningful talks on Gaza, declaring that there will be no recognition of Hamas and that it has "no place in negotiations".

Immediate analysis: Olmert is blowing smoke in everyone's eyes and possibly his own. The Israeli objective was to knock Hamas out, not deliver a glancing military blow. Most of the organization's leadership is still alive, whether in Gaza or Damascus, and their base of support has probably been strengthened by the Israeli assault.

10:40 p.m. Rockets fired from Gaza have hit Ashkelon and Ashdod. Awaiting reports of any casualties.

10:20 p.m. It appears that a lot of people are scrambling to find a response to the Israeli unilateral cease-fire. Egypt, which increasingly looks like it has been wrong-footed by the manoeuvre, is loudly proclaiming that it has invited world leaders to Cairo on Sunday. The list including Palestianian Authority leader Mahmoud Abbas, the leaders of France, Germany, Spain, Turkey, and Britain, United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon, and representatives from the United States, Russia, and European Commission.

Reports indicate that Egypt wishes "to restore the truce between Israel and Hamas, and to lift the Israeli-led blockade on the strip". However, given Israel's clear indication today that it wishes to do neither, the more likely explanation is that Cairo is scrambling to protect its reputation in the Arab world after walking hand-in-hand with Tel Aviv and then getting pushed aside.

8 p.m. United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon has condemned "outrageous attack" by Israel on UN shelter/school. No doubt, after Minister of Defense Ehud Barak apologies for a "grave error" --- as he did yesterday over the shelling of the UN compound --- Ban will says "That's OK" and praise Israel --- as he did yesterday --- for its contribution to humanitarian corridor.

9:05 p.m. Amidst the diplomatic developments, a graphic reminder of the humanitarian issues that are far from resolution. Ahdaf Soueif in The Guardian of London today:

According to the medics here, to reports from doctors inside the Gaza Strip and to Palestinian eye-witnesses, more than 95% of the dead and injured are civilians. Many more will probably be found when the siege is lifted and the rubble is cleared. The doctors speak of a disproportionate number of head injuries - specifically of shrapnel lodged in the brain.

They also speak of the extensive burns of white phosphorus. These injuries are, as they put it, 'incompatible with life'. They are also receiving large numbers of amputees. This is because the damage done to the bone by explosive bullets is so extensive that the only way the doctors in Gaza can save lives is by amputating.

7 p.m. Confirmation coming through that Israel has declared a unilateral cease-fire. Prime Minister Ehud Olmert adds that Israel retains freedom to respond to Hamas attacks.

This is now a de facto military re-occupation of Gaza.

6:40 p.m. Gaza death toll now 1230, of whom 410 are children. More than 5300 wounded.

6:25 p.m. Apparently United Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon met some politicians in Lebanon today and issued a statement. I can't be bothered to say anything further except....

Come back, Kofi Annan, we miss you.

6:05 p.m. Further re-alignment: while we await political reaction to Israel's unilateral ceasefire, its move for a force to block "arms smuggling" to Gaza has been supported by Britain, France, and Germany, all of whom have offered warships.

I know it may be too early to mention this, but does anyone recall what happened when the US and European countries sent warships to control traffic in the Persian Gulf in the late 1980s?

5:55 p.m. Want a clue to the shift of position by Egypt's Hosni Mubarak this afternoon? Reuters reports, "Egyptian police used batons to beat protesters who rallied against the Israeli offensive on the Gaza Strip in central Cairo on Saturday." The demonstration was called by the Muslim Brotherhood.

And, in an interesting development, Mubarak will meet Palestianian Authority leader Mahmoud Abbas and French President Nicolas Sarkozy on Sunday. Is this to find a way to work with the new Israeli plan or a sign that they may back away from it?

5:50 p.m. The toll from the UN school/shelter shelled this morning by Israel is two dead and 25 wounded. Three daughters and a niece of a prominent Gazan doctor were killed as he was being interviewed on Israeli television, and at least 10 people were killed by a tank shell during a funeral wake in Gaza City.

Late afternoon update (5:30 p.m.): Egypt's Hosni Mubarak has blinked, at least publicly.

With Israel setting aside the Egyptian proposals for its unilateral cease-fire, Mubarak --- probably to cover his back, both with other Arab states and with his own population --- has had to put a bit of distance between himself and Tel Aviv. He has called for an immediate cease-fire and Israel's withdrawal from Gaza, and he gave a big clue as to the reason for Israel's decision to go it alone, declaring that Egypt would not accept an international monitoring force on its side of the Egypt-Gaza border.

1:50 p.m.To repeat for emphasis, because no one in media seems to take notice: Did Barack Obama and his advisors know of and agree to the Rice-Livni understanding for US-Israeli effort to block arms smuggling to Hamas? And did they anticipate the unilateral Israel ceasefire?

1:30 p.m. Just announced that Prime Minister Ehud Olmert will make a televised address today. Get ready for that unilateral ceasefire.

12:20 p.m. Hamas makes its initial diplomatic play today: Osama Hamdan calls on regional states to stand by Gazan "resistance" and on Europe to cut ties to Israel.

12:10 p.m. An interesting twist in the latest analysis from the Israeli newspaper Ha'aretz. The piece by Amos Harel and Avi Issacharoff starts off to find, "Who is really winning the war in Gaza?". However, while wandering about looking for the victory --- maybe Hamas is split between its Damascus and Gazan branches --- they actually point to Israel's inability to define its political objective:

The most effective Israeli deterrence, [advisors to Minister of Defense Ehud Barak] said, had already been achieved by the end of last week. When Barak asked just when, in their opinion, Israel ought to pull out of Gaza, most of the participants answered: Yesterday.

This uncertainty, "What have we really achieved?", may explain the admission in the conclusion that Israel's war has been far from noble:

It is a little difficult to understand how a war, albeit necessary and justified, that includes the dropping of one-ton bombs from a height of 30,000 feet on a densely populated city can stir such national pride. The most nauseating of these new anthems explains that the IDF is the "army of the heroes of glory" and promises to give a hug to each and every one of these heroes, from the lowliest private all the way up to the chief of staff. Just one more reason to hope it all ends quickly: Then these cloying efforts will pass, too.

11:20 a.m. Of the 1199 Gazans killed to date, 410 are children, 108 are women and 118 are elderly.

11:10 a.m. Want to know the American strategy behind this morning's Israeli unilateral cease-fire? Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice after signing agreement with Israeli Foreign Minsiter Tzipi Livni to halt arms smuggling: "It will be clear that Mahmoud Abbas is demonstrating that he will be the Palestinian leader for all the Palestinian people."

11:05 a.m. This is the deadliest 48-hour period in the conflict, with more than 160 Gazans killed.

11 a.m. UN official Chris Gunness: several shells hit the school/shelter this morning with one "direct hit", killing two and wounding 14 as hundreds took refuge. They are keeping lists for an investigation "to see if war crimes have been committed".

10:55 a.m. Confirmation that the Israeli unilateral cease-fire leads immediately to an open-ended occupation: an official tells Agence France Press, "Israeli troops would remain inside the territory for an unspecified period."

Which in turn means that fighting will continue at some level --- a Hamas official has just told AFP that they will continue to battle occupying forces.

10:40 a.m. Gazan death toll now close to 1200.

10:30 a.m. United Nations officials are calling for investigation of this morning's shelling of a UN school/shelter which killed at least two children.

Five rockets have been fired into southern Israel, after 22 were launched on Friday.

Morning update (10 a.m. Israel/Gaza time): The key development of the day, the Israeli Cabinet declaration of a unilateral cease-fire,  is still awaited.Already, however, it is being reported that Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert will follow up the announcement with a visit to Egypt on Sunday.

Meanwhile, Hamas representatives are in Cairo. It will be intriguing to see how the Egyptians will explain Tel Aviv's decision or if they even try to do so. There is also an interesting 48-hour period between yesterday's summit in Qatar and the gathering of Arab countries for an economic meeting in Kuwait, where the two emerging blocs (the Egypt-led bloc against Hamas and the Syria-led bloc urging strong support of the organisation) will encounter each other for the time.

A symbolic but pointed development at the United Nations General Assembly, where the 192-member body voted 142-6 with 8 abstentions demanded "full respect" of last week's Security Council resolution for an immediate cease-fire. The debate was dominated by harsh denunciation of Israel and marked by arguments when Egypt and the European Union tried to push through an alternative motion that was less criticial of Tel Aviv.

And, during this diplomatic endgame --- which is far from being an endgame, only the start of a new phase of the conflict --- the military assault and civilian deaths continue. Two children were killed when Israeli artillery shells hit a United Nations school north of Gaza City. Three Gazans will killed in a tower block and two others slain in Khan Younis.