The Israeli Invasion of Gaza: Rolling Updates (17 January)

Later Updates: The Israeli Invasion of Gaza (18 January)

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1:15 a.m. At the very least, I'm grateful that there has been a cessation of violence in Gaza. My concern is that we're at the start of a different phase which will not bring resolution but further hardship.

Good night and peace to all.

12:30 a.m. Let's be clear: the Israeli move today is not a meaningful cease-fire. It is simply a declaration that they are going to hold their military forces in place, in effect reinstituting an armed re-occupation of Gaza.

Having failed to achieve --- so far --- its goal of removing Hamas from power, Tel Aviv is now tightening its constriction of Gaza, hoping that the economic and security situation will be so untenable that the Gazan leadership eventually put their hands up. And, if Hamas react by upping the ante with rocket fire --- in effect putting their heads above the parapet --- Israel will claim legitimacy to strike even harder with its military forces.

On the surface, it's a clever strategy --- already the cyber-campaign has been launched to claim that Israel has the moral high ground since Hamas has refused to surrender and vowed to continue resistance. But in a few days, I suspect we'll see the flaws in the grand design. Israel has already lost Egypt, its Arab partner in the scheme to overthrow Hamas, and there is a good chance it is re-fashioning a bloc in which Syria, Turkey, and Iran play leading roles. There is even a chance that Tel Aviv may lose American support for the scheme to bring back the Palestinian Authority: we shall see when the Obama Administration steps up to the plate next week.

And here's the weakness in the Israeli strategy that no one will acknowledge. If Hamas fell, who would come into power? The Palestinian Authority? No way --- Gazans who have suffered close to 1300 dead are not going to welcome back a leadership they chucked out in 2006, especially when that leadership privately aided and abetted the Israeli assault.

So that means Israel has to maintain both the economic pressure and the military presence --- either in Gaza or dangling like Damocles' sword on the border --- or pull back and accept a Gazan leadership which may be less amenable to a longer-term agreement than the present one was in mid-2008. And the longer that it maintains that pressure --- given that memories of the humanitarian cost of the last few weeks will not linger but be magnified by an Iron Lead occupation --- the further its international position will erode.



11:45 p.m. A more substantive Hamas response? Rocket hits Hetzarim airbase in Beersheba and six others land elsewhere in last hour.

11:30 p.m. Hamas has already struck back at Olmert's speech, declaring that Israel's announcement "does not end the resistance". It "reserves the right to continue resisting Israel with all means" if Israel does not withdraw and lift the blockade on Gaza.

11 p.m. Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert is making his national broadcast announcing an unilateral cease-fire, beginning at 2 a.m. Israel/Gaza time. He's declaring victory: Hamas have been dealt "a very serious blow", although they are "still not fully aware of how badly they have been damaged". Olmert is also holding up the "international agreement" to block arms to Gaza as a sign of Israel's triumph. And he is killing off any meaningful talks on Gaza, declaring that there will be no recognition of Hamas and that it has "no place in negotiations".

Immediate analysis: Olmert is blowing smoke in everyone's eyes and possibly his own. The Israeli objective was to knock Hamas out, not deliver a glancing military blow. Most of the organization's leadership is still alive, whether in Gaza or Damascus, and their base of support has probably been strengthened by the Israeli assault.

10:40 p.m. Rockets fired from Gaza have hit Ashkelon and Ashdod. Awaiting reports of any casualties.

10:20 p.m. It appears that a lot of people are scrambling to find a response to the Israeli unilateral cease-fire. Egypt, which increasingly looks like it has been wrong-footed by the manoeuvre, is loudly proclaiming that it has invited world leaders to Cairo on Sunday. The list including Palestianian Authority leader Mahmoud Abbas, the leaders of France, Germany, Spain, Turkey, and Britain, United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon, and representatives from the United States, Russia, and European Commission.

Reports indicate that Egypt wishes "to restore the truce between Israel and Hamas, and to lift the Israeli-led blockade on the strip". However, given Israel's clear indication today that it wishes to do neither, the more likely explanation is that Cairo is scrambling to protect its reputation in the Arab world after walking hand-in-hand with Tel Aviv and then getting pushed aside.

8 p.m. United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon has condemned "outrageous attack" by Israel on UN shelter/school. No doubt, after Minister of Defense Ehud Barak apologies for a "grave error" --- as he did yesterday over the shelling of the UN compound --- Ban will says "That's OK" and praise Israel --- as he did yesterday --- for its contribution to humanitarian corridor.

9:05 p.m. Amidst the diplomatic developments, a graphic reminder of the humanitarian issues that are far from resolution. Ahdaf Soueif in The Guardian of London today:

According to the medics here, to reports from doctors inside the Gaza Strip and to Palestinian eye-witnesses, more than 95% of the dead and injured are civilians. Many more will probably be found when the siege is lifted and the rubble is cleared. The doctors speak of a disproportionate number of head injuries - specifically of shrapnel lodged in the brain.

They also speak of the extensive burns of white phosphorus. These injuries are, as they put it, 'incompatible with life'. They are also receiving large numbers of amputees. This is because the damage done to the bone by explosive bullets is so extensive that the only way the doctors in Gaza can save lives is by amputating.

7 p.m. Confirmation coming through that Israel has declared a unilateral cease-fire. Prime Minister Ehud Olmert adds that Israel retains freedom to respond to Hamas attacks.

This is now a de facto military re-occupation of Gaza.

6:40 p.m. Gaza death toll now 1230, of whom 410 are children. More than 5300 wounded.

6:25 p.m. Apparently United Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon met some politicians in Lebanon today and issued a statement. I can't be bothered to say anything further except....

Come back, Kofi Annan, we miss you.

6:05 p.m. Further re-alignment: while we await political reaction to Israel's unilateral ceasefire, its move for a force to block "arms smuggling" to Gaza has been supported by Britain, France, and Germany, all of whom have offered warships.

I know it may be too early to mention this, but does anyone recall what happened when the US and European countries sent warships to control traffic in the Persian Gulf in the late 1980s?

5:55 p.m. Want a clue to the shift of position by Egypt's Hosni Mubarak this afternoon? Reuters reports, "Egyptian police used batons to beat protesters who rallied against the Israeli offensive on the Gaza Strip in central Cairo on Saturday." The demonstration was called by the Muslim Brotherhood.

And, in an interesting development, Mubarak will meet Palestianian Authority leader Mahmoud Abbas and French President Nicolas Sarkozy on Sunday. Is this to find a way to work with the new Israeli plan or a sign that they may back away from it?

5:50 p.m. The toll from the UN school/shelter shelled this morning by Israel is two dead and 25 wounded. Three daughters and a niece of a prominent Gazan doctor were killed as he was being interviewed on Israeli television, and at least 10 people were killed by a tank shell during a funeral wake in Gaza City.

Late afternoon update (5:30 p.m.): Egypt's Hosni Mubarak has blinked, at least publicly.

With Israel setting aside the Egyptian proposals for its unilateral cease-fire, Mubarak --- probably to cover his back, both with other Arab states and with his own population --- has had to put a bit of distance between himself and Tel Aviv. He has called for an immediate cease-fire and Israel's withdrawal from Gaza, and he gave a big clue as to the reason for Israel's decision to go it alone, declaring that Egypt would not accept an international monitoring force on its side of the Egypt-Gaza border.

1:50 p.m.To repeat for emphasis, because no one in media seems to take notice: Did Barack Obama and his advisors know of and agree to the Rice-Livni understanding for US-Israeli effort to block arms smuggling to Hamas? And did they anticipate the unilateral Israel ceasefire?

1:30 p.m. Just announced that Prime Minister Ehud Olmert will make a televised address today. Get ready for that unilateral ceasefire.

12:20 p.m. Hamas makes its initial diplomatic play today: Osama Hamdan calls on regional states to stand by Gazan "resistance" and on Europe to cut ties to Israel.

12:10 p.m. An interesting twist in the latest analysis from the Israeli newspaper Ha'aretz. The piece by Amos Harel and Avi Issacharoff starts off to find, "Who is really winning the war in Gaza?". However, while wandering about looking for the victory --- maybe Hamas is split between its Damascus and Gazan branches --- they actually point to Israel's inability to define its political objective:

The most effective Israeli deterrence, [advisors to Minister of Defense Ehud Barak] said, had already been achieved by the end of last week. When Barak asked just when, in their opinion, Israel ought to pull out of Gaza, most of the participants answered: Yesterday.

This uncertainty, "What have we really achieved?", may explain the admission in the conclusion that Israel's war has been far from noble:

It is a little difficult to understand how a war, albeit necessary and justified, that includes the dropping of one-ton bombs from a height of 30,000 feet on a densely populated city can stir such national pride. The most nauseating of these new anthems explains that the IDF is the "army of the heroes of glory" and promises to give a hug to each and every one of these heroes, from the lowliest private all the way up to the chief of staff. Just one more reason to hope it all ends quickly: Then these cloying efforts will pass, too.

11:20 a.m. Of the 1199 Gazans killed to date, 410 are children, 108 are women and 118 are elderly.

11:10 a.m. Want to know the American strategy behind this morning's Israeli unilateral cease-fire? Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice after signing agreement with Israeli Foreign Minsiter Tzipi Livni to halt arms smuggling: "It will be clear that Mahmoud Abbas is demonstrating that he will be the Palestinian leader for all the Palestinian people."

11:05 a.m. This is the deadliest 48-hour period in the conflict, with more than 160 Gazans killed.

11 a.m. UN official Chris Gunness: several shells hit the school/shelter this morning with one "direct hit", killing two and wounding 14 as hundreds took refuge. They are keeping lists for an investigation "to see if war crimes have been committed".

10:55 a.m. Confirmation that the Israeli unilateral cease-fire leads immediately to an open-ended occupation: an official tells Agence France Press, "Israeli troops would remain inside the territory for an unspecified period."

Which in turn means that fighting will continue at some level --- a Hamas official has just told AFP that they will continue to battle occupying forces.

10:40 a.m. Gazan death toll now close to 1200.

10:30 a.m. United Nations officials are calling for investigation of this morning's shelling of a UN school/shelter which killed at least two children.

Five rockets have been fired into southern Israel, after 22 were launched on Friday.

Morning update (10 a.m. Israel/Gaza time): The key development of the day, the Israeli Cabinet declaration of a unilateral cease-fire,  is still awaited.Already, however, it is being reported that Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert will follow up the announcement with a visit to Egypt on Sunday.

Meanwhile, Hamas representatives are in Cairo. It will be intriguing to see how the Egyptians will explain Tel Aviv's decision or if they even try to do so. There is also an interesting 48-hour period between yesterday's summit in Qatar and the gathering of Arab countries for an economic meeting in Kuwait, where the two emerging blocs (the Egypt-led bloc against Hamas and the Syria-led bloc urging strong support of the organisation) will encounter each other for the time.

A symbolic but pointed development at the United Nations General Assembly, where the 192-member body voted 142-6 with 8 abstentions demanded "full respect" of last week's Security Council resolution for an immediate cease-fire. The debate was dominated by harsh denunciation of Israel and marked by arguments when Egypt and the European Union tried to push through an alternative motion that was less criticial of Tel Aviv.

And, during this diplomatic endgame --- which is far from being an endgame, only the start of a new phase of the conflict --- the military assault and civilian deaths continue. Two children were killed when Israeli artillery shells hit a United Nations school north of Gaza City. Three Gazans will killed in a tower block and two others slain in Khan Younis.

The Israeli Invasion of Gaza: Rolling Updates (15 January)

Latest Post: Israeli Government Document Says Hamas Did Not Fire Rockets From June to November 2008

12:30 a.m. We predicted last night that it would be a momentous 24 hours. It was, but not on the diplomatic front, where Israel --- confident that the Arab world was dithering, that Egypt would not go too far in conceding to Hamas, and that the US is still writing a blank cheque --- stalled. Instead, the deadly action was military, as the world woke up to Israel's gradual achievement of "Phase 3".

The Israeli invasion of Gaza City started badly on the public-relations front, as they shelled hospitals, high-rises (including one housing media organisations), and the UN compound and set thousands of residents to flight. The advance faced limited resistance from Hamas fighters, however, and Tel Aviv got a major coup --- at home and we'll see how much abroad --- when its target assassination strategy finally worked with the slaying of Hamas officials, including former Minister of the Interior Saed Siam.

Yet all this merely brings round our question from last night: is tomorrow the day when the Israeli Government finally decides that it will moves toward a cease-fire or will it press for even better terms by squeezing the population of Gaza City, Rafah, etc. further?

Good night and peace to all.



11:45 p.m. Hamas has confirmed the death of former Interior Minister Saed Siam, killed in an Israeli airstrike with five others.

The report of the death of Hamas military leader Mahmud al-Zahar was in error, confusing two incidents. He was not at Siam's house; instead, Israeli forces surround al-Zahar's home, killing five bodyguards but failing to locate him.

10:00 p.m. Ban Ki-Moon, capping off a fantastic day for United Nations diplomacy, says that it may take a 'few more days' to work out the technical details of a Gaza ceasefire. Translation: the issue of who monitors the borders, and thus when they open, is a major sticking point.

9:05 p.m. Ministry of Defense official Amos Gilad has returned from Cairo and talking to Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, Defense Minister Ehud Barak, and Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni. I suspect that means no significant announcement until the Gilad discussions are presented to Israeli Security Cabinet on Friday.

8:45 p.m. Hamas tried to re-seize the diplomatic initiative. Its officials have told Egypt that it will agree to a year-long ceasefire if Israel opens the borders immediately and withdraws its forces in seven days.

It's a clever move, if it commands attention. There is no way that Israel will agree to opened borders without an arrangement that it likes on monitoring (which probably means some involvement/oversight by Israeli forces). It is likely to respond, with the killings of Hamas officials this evening, that the Gazan organisation is only reacting from weakness, and there is a good chance that Israeli officials would like to press their military advantage for a few more days.

So Hamas may be able to portray themselves as the party seeking peace, especially if outrage over Israeli hitting of civilian targets, such as hospitals and the UN compounds, overrides the focus on the military "success" of the targeted assassinations. For that to happen, however, it needs support from somewhere --- Arab states, the United Nations, maybe a European leader. That, however, is unlikely in the next few days unless there is a general demand, in the media and in public opinion, for a cessation of the violence.

8:05 p.m. Al Jazeera says former (not present) Hamas Interior Minister Said Siam, his brother, and son killed with three others in Israeli airstrike. It does not mention the death of Mahmoud Watfah.

7:45 p.m. Ha'aretz: Hamas military leader Mahmoud Watfah also killed in airstrike on Interior Minister's house.

7:25 p.m Well, this buys Israel some time, deflecting from the row over the shelling of the UN compound, the injuring of journalists in the attack on the Sharooq Tower, the rising civilian death toll, the tangled diplomatic talks....

Al Aqsa TV confirms the death of Hamas Interior Minister Said Siam in an Israeli airstrike.

7:05 p.m. Israel claims to have killed Hamas Interior Minister Said Siam and his brother in an attack on his house.

6:15 p.m. The report of Israeli response has come from Egyptian television and now from a senior Egyptian diplomat to Agence France Presse. Still no coverage in US or British media.

5:55 p.m. News Alert: It is being reported that Israel has given a "totally favourable response" to the Egyptian proposals for a cease-fire. This follows news that US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice has told Israeli Prime Minister that the US will sign an agreement to measures to prevent the rearming of Hamas.

CNN International and Al Jazeera English, which is carrying the emergency session of the United Nations General Assembly, have yet to mention the supposed breakthrough.

5:40 p.m. Question of the Day comes from UN official Chris Gunness: ""If there were militants in our compound, why weren't we told?"

5:20 p.m. CNN's website has a summary of the near-farcical diplomatic fiddling, while Gaza burns, by Arab nations. Anas Qtiesh's commentary, "Arab Leaders Can't Come Together, Not Even into a Room", is well worth a read.

4:20 p.m. Forgive me, but here we go again: a senior Israeli officers say the UN compound was shelled, with artillery and white phosphorous, fter Israeli forces came under fire from militants. UN official John Ging has denied there was any shooting from the compound.

3:30 p.m. British Prime Minister Gordon Brown, breaking from the US, has condemned Israel attack on UN facilities "unacceptable" and called for immediate cease-fire.

3 p.m. Interesting journalistic approach from Al Jazeera: It has put a "victim's wall" listing the names and ages of the 210 children killed in the Gaza conflict that it has identified so far.

Meanwhile, Israeli spokesman Mark Regev announces that 20 journalists will be allowed into Gaza, but they must be embedded with Israeli Army "for their security". Credit to the CNN correspondent who just scoffed at this, since journalists would have to submit all their reports to the Army for approval.

2:50 p.m. Oops, here is why that "Fatah In, Hamas Out" strategy might not work. Isabel Kerchner in The New York Times:

Israel hoped that the war in Gaza would not only cripple Hamas, but eventually strengthen its secular rival, the Palestinian Authority, and even allow it to claw its way back into Gaza.

But with each day, the authority, its leader, Mahmoud Abbas, and its leading party, Fatah, seem increasingly beleaguered and marginalized, even in the Palestinian cities of the West Bank, which they control. Protesters accuse Mr. Abbas of not doing enough to stop the carnage in Gaza — indeed, his own police officers have used clubs and tear gas against those same protesters.

2:35 p.m. Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmedinejad is holding a press conference, lambasting Israel and the United Nations.

2:05 p.m. We've put up a separate post on the significance of the press conference: "Fatah In, Hamas Out", but on a personal note:

In my opinion, "I've just witnessed a disgrace." If there was any hope in the diplomatic process after the Egypt-Hamas talks, it has been sabotaged by Livni's declaration of a "regime change" strategy in Gaza. And I cannot believe that a UN Secretary-General, only hours after his own people and operations were damaged --- perhaps irrevocably --- in Gaza would not only sit there and take the blows but endorse Tel Aviv's approach.

1:45 p.m. Israeli Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni, following Ban Ki-Moon's statement, laid the strategy on the line for Hamas out, Fatah in:

""Gaza has been controlled by terrorist organization that doesn't fight for the aspirations of the Palestinian people. It is not part of the peace process....We  need to achieve a peace process with the pragmatic leadership, the legitimate Palestinian Government (her emphasis) and simultaneously to address terror, to fight terrorism, to continue the de-legitimisation of Hamas."

1:43 p.m. About those Israeli attacks on UN facilities and personnel this morning; Ban Ki-Moon says he "expressed strong protest and outrage" and demanded full explanation. He then had telephone talk with Israeli Defense Ehud Barak, who said attacks were "grave mistake" and assured "that extra attention would be paid to UN facilities and staff" in future.

Well, that's all right,then.

1:40 p.m. Ban Ki-Moon says he discussed humanitarian situation with Israeli Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni. He says UN working with Israel "to alleviate the crisis as much as possible": "I appreciate the Israeli Government's measures to establish a Humanitarian Operations Center and to provide the necessary humanitarian assistance."

1:30 p.m. Important development: United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon has just issued his press statement after meeting with Israeli leaders. He calls for immediate cease-fire with reopening of borders, halt to rockets and resupply to Hamas, and release of Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit. And...

"Gaza is reunited with West Bank under one legitimate Palestinian Authority".

Which means the political strategy of bringing Fatah back to Gaza --- and not recognising Hamas --- continues.

1:16 p.m. Al Jazeera reports that Israeli forces have surrounded the home of Hamas co-founder Mahmud az-Zahar.

1:15 p.m. Nice symbolic touch: someone has placed two Israeli flags in front of the media reporting from the Israel-Gaza border.

1:05 p.m. Resident of Gaza City high-rise occupied by Israeli soldiers (speaking to Al Jazeera's Ayman Moyheldin): women and children fled, Israeli troops have detained the men in lower floors of the building.

12:25 p.m. UN official John Ging: UN has not suspended operations but Gaza City headquarters is now cut off: "This is a test of our humanity. It's also a test of our ability to enforce legality and just be by-standers."

Ging says Red Cross building in Gaza City has been hit by Israeli fire. (Latest info: apparently it is Red Crescent hospital building which has been struck.)

12:20 p.m. UN official Chris Gunness: Because the fire in the UN compound is from three white phosphorous shells, it cannot be "put out by conventional means."

12:15 p.m. Israel radio with doctor in Tal al-Hawa hospital: Building hit by Israeli tank shell (not bomb). Fuel tank outside hospital struck, causing large fire.

12:10 p.m. Al Jazeera: Tal al-Hawa hospital in Gaza City hit by Israel bomb with 500 people inside.

12 noon: Smoke billowing from UN aid warehouse, which is on fire after a direct hit from at least three Israeli shells.

11:37 a.m. Shourooq Tower, which house many media organisations in #Gaza, hit by Israeli shelling.

11:35 a.m. Fantastic line from Al Jazeera analyst Mouin Rabbani: "There's a growing feeling in the region that, while Muslims pray towards Mecca, some of their leaders are in fact praying in the direction of the White House."

11:20 a.m. Orwell strikes: As it shells Gaza City and Rafah and escalates ground operations, Israel announces a four-hour "humanitarian" respite for today, even though UN says any aid delivery is impossible.

11:15 a.m. Putting reports together on fighting in Tal al-Hawa: Israeli tanks shelled three high-rise buildings before Israeli soldiers occupied them. Unclear whether residents of buildings fled before or after the tank fire.

11:01 a.m. CNN follows Al Jazeera reports of "main UN aid compound" in Gaza hit by Israeli fire. UN official John Ging says compound hit by artillery and white phosphorous, injuring three UN workers.

11:00 a.m. Thirteen rockets fired this morning into southern Israel.

10:55 a.m. Projection: Israeli forces are making current advance into parts of Gaza City to pursue diplomatic negotiations from a "position of strength".

10:50 a.m. Live on Al Jazeera: Intensive Israeli attack in Tal al-Hawa, in the southern part of Gaza City, with Israeli soldiers taking up positions in high-rise buildings. Reports of similar operations in eastern Gaza City. Thousands of resident fleeing.

This is a significant escalation in operations: in recent days, Israeli forces have moved forward at night, not during the day.

10:45 a.m. Juan Cole, excellent as always, offers an incisive examination of the humanitarian situation to consider whether Israel is a "rogue state".

10:30 a.m. In case you missed it: Israel turned back an aid boat carrying doctors, medical supplies, and journalists. The Israeli naval force surrounded the boat and threatened to fire unless it returned to Cyprus.

9:45 a.m. Further to our 9 a.m. update "Decision Day?": The Israeli shift in position, sending officials to Cairo and Washington for talks, follows a mini-climbdown by Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, who ended his boycott of Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni and Defense Minister Ehud Barak and met them yesterday.

9:30 a.m. Split amongst Arab States: Following our update yesterday on Saudi Arabia proposing a meeting of the Gulf Cooperation Council as an alternative to an Arab League emergency meeting, Egypt is suggesting a meeting on Sunday just before an Arab economic summit in Kuwait.

At least in the short term, two Arab coalitions have emerged: one led by Egypt and Saudi Arabia, who are playing for time because of their dislike of Hamas, and one led by Syria (supported by non-Arab countries such as Iran and Turkey), who want a more assertive political intervention. Whether this has long-term significance will be an important issue, even after the supposed end of hostilities in Gaza.

9:15 a.m. Crushing Hamas? A revealing story, if you can get under the surface, on BBC radio's Today programme (at 0715). An Israeli military spokesman says that about 300 Hamas fighters have died since the Israeli ground invasion, in addition to a "few hundred" killed in the first week of the aerial assault.

The Israeli figure, however, includes Gazan policemen, an estimated 170 of whom have died. Removing that number, the outcome is that Israel after three weeks has killed at most 430 Hamas fighters. That is out of a (conservatively) estimated Hamas force of 15,000.

9:01 a.m. United Nations official Chris Gunness says that UN personnel cannot get to warehouses to distribute aid because of "red-hot shrapnel" lying around the sites.

9 a.m. Despite the diplomatic moves, Israel not only continued its bombardment overnight but also "moved into crowded parts" of Gaza City. A mosque was amongst the targets hit, while a targeted assassination attempt hit the home of a Hamas official, missing him but killing three others.

The Gazan death toll is now 1033 --- more than a third are children. Al Jazeera's Ayman Moyheldin reports that more than 80,000 Gazans have been displaced.

Morning Update (9 a.m. Israel/Gaza time): Decision Day? Three days late, Israel is sending Ministry of Defense official Amos Gilad to Cairo. The BBC is reporting that Tel Aviv is also sending a senior Foreign Ministry official to the US. Both developments indicate that the Israeli Government is ready to enter negotiations on the terms of a possible cease-fire.

This follows the news on Wednesday that Hamas has put forward its response to Egyptian proposals in an attempt to find a settlement. That said, there are still huge sticking points. Hamas is demanding both that Israel end the blockade and that it have no personnel in the force monitoring the borders. Israel will insist not only on an end to rocket fire but will try and retain the right to strike Gaza if even one launch is made.

And this is only in the short-term, of course. The wider issue is a two-fold question of recognition: does Hamas recognise Israel as a state? And does Israel recognise Hamas as the legitimate political leadership of Gaza?

The Israeli Invasion of Gaza: Rolling Updates (14 January)

Latest Post: Gaza Diaries --- Dying and Awaiting Death
Latest Post: Alive in Gaza Audio and Written Blogs --- "We Do Not Know What Tomorrow is Holding for Us"
Earlier Updates: The Israeli Invasion of Gaza (13 January --- Evening)

7:20 p.m. Sky News in Britain is claiming that Hamas has agreed "in principle" to Egyptian proposals. Unclear, however, if Sky report is based on an earlier announcement by Spanish Foreign Ministry, now retracted. Hamas spokesman Osama Hamdan said earlier to Al Jazeera that "points of difference" remained over the Egyptian proposals, while Hamas spokesman in Syria said agreement had been reached.

More when we get out of a bloggers' gathering in Birmingham.

6:30 p.m. The long-term effect of the Israeli invasion? From today's Washington Post:

A cornerstone of Israel's strategy in Gaza is to crush Hamas's will to fight, especially its determination to fire rockets into southern Israel. But in interviews here with wounded supporters of the Islamist militia, Israel's assaults appear to be breeding more recruits and more popular support for Hamas.

Men who say they have never fought before or were not Hamas loyalists now vow to join the struggle against Israel when they return to Gaza. They include policemen and other professionals who form part of the backbone of Gazan society.

6:05 p.m. While awaiting developments, I found the opening to this report in The New York Times gets to the heart of the political/military matter:

Despite heavy air and ground assaults, Israel has yet to cripple the military wing of Hamas or destroy the group’s ability to launch rockets, Israeli intelligence officials said on Tuesday, suggesting that Israel’s main goals in the conflict remain unfulfilled even after 18 days of war.

The comments reflected a view among some Israeli officials that any lasting solution to the conflict would require either a breakthrough diplomatic accord that heavily restricts Hamas’s military abilities or a deeper ground assault into urban areas of Gaza. 

5:30 p.m. We've just posted an update on two Gaza accounts, the words of a four-year-old girl in a hospital and the extraordinary "Gaza Diary" of Safa Joudeh.



5 p.m. The latest update from the United Nations Humanitarian Coordinator, current to 5 p.m. yesterday:

Civilians, notably children who form 56 percent of Gaza’s population, are bearing the brunt of the violence. As one of the most densely populated places in the world, more civilians risk being killed or injured if the conflict continues. The parties to conflict must respect the norms of International Humanitarian Law (IHL), in particular the principles of distinction and proportionality.

4:45 p.m. The Gazan death toll, according to medical services, has passed 1000. Beyond the morbid symbolism of passing that mark, a colleague at lunch has offered the following: given the Gaza population of 1.5 million, this is the equivalent in US of 200,000 dead.

3 p.m. So here's the statement from Ban Ki-Moon in Cairo:

I repeat my call for an immediate and durable cease-fire. I've been urging in the strongest of possible terms all sides must stop fighting now. We don't have any time to lose.

A statement which, I fear, is spitting into the wind: no evidence of any advance from Ban's talks with the Egyptians.

Afternoon update (2 p.m. Israel/Gaza time): No significant word from Ban Ki-Moon's talks in Cairo. Periodic gunfire and bombings in Gaza City.

Peripheral news: a chap named Osama bin Laden has issued a statement on Gaza, calling for "jihad".

11:05 a.m. Juan Cole considers one of the important effects of the conflict, a souring of relations between Turkey and Israel.

11 a.m. Gazan death toll now 978 with more than 4500 wounded.

10:45 a.m. Huge development which effectively means no advance in the diplomatic process.

Ha'aretz reports on the split in the Israeli Cabinet: Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, who wants to press ahead with military operations, is refusing to meet with Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni and Defense Minister Ehud Barak, both of whom support a cease-fire: "On Wednesday, he will not convene the political-security cabinet to discuss whether the operations should go on."

10:40 a.m. Watching an extraordinary "Inside Story" from Al Jazeeera on protests and the Gaza conflict. Joshua Muravchik of the American Enterprise Institute is close to screaming at the other participants and making statements such as "The Hamas leadership is in a bunker underneath al Shifa hospital" (hmmm.....), "There was not a daysince the Israeli withdrawal from Gaza that went by without a Hamas rocket fired into Israel" (false --- for example, official Israeli figures show only one rocket fired into Israel in July 2008) and "There was no blockade" (I leave that one up to you).

It's simple for Muravchik: Israel and Hamas are "morally unequal".

10:25 a.m.  Global Voices has just posted the heart-felt but disturbing reflections of a Tel Aviv construction worker who worked alongside six Gazans for 18 months in 1996-97. Despite the passage of time, it is well worth a read:

I and most other non-Gazans would break down after a week of such a schedule, but our Gazans lived like this for decades. Up until the day the [Gaza Strip] was shut down once and for all, and the life of people there grew even worse. […] Having seen all this, I understood even then that it was impossible to defeat these people or break them down. They can either be eliminated, or we can learn to live together with them. There are no other options.

(Hat tip to Lisa Goldman.)

10 a.m. This from The Independent of London:

At least three Palestinians in Gaza were shot dead yesterday after Israeli soldiers fired on a group of residents leaving their homes on orders from the military and waving white flags, according to testimony taken by the Israeli human rights group B'Tselem. The testimony was rejected by the military after what it said was a preliminary investigation.

9:50 a.m. Our colleagues at "Alive in Gaza" have posted their first audio despatch, from photojournalist Sameh Habeeb in Gaza City.

Morning update (9:30 a.m. Israel/Gaza time): The overnight military pattern continued. Israeli airstrikes on more than 60 targets, as well as naval and land bombardment. Fighting as Israeli forces further secured their positions around Gazan cities, while in southern Gaza, Israeli planes used bunker-busting bombs on tunnels near Rafah.

The headline development is on the other side of Israel. Three rockets from Lebanon, in the second launch in recent days, landed in northern Israel. The "National Front" has claimed responsibility,but worryingly CNN is already putting out the line that "nothing happens without the wink and nod of Hezbollah".

In what is likely to be a depressing diplomatic sideshow, United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon visits the region today, seeing Egyptian and Arab League leaders on Wednesday and Israeli leaders on Thursday. Without visible support from another international entity, such as the United States or the European Union, or a parallel effort by the Arab League, I am afraid the trip will be publicity without substance (although if Ban can use the trip to get some movement on the humanitarian front, it may not be without value).

Meanwhile, the United Nations General Assembly will convene, offering its own symbolism of a denunciation of Tel Aviv. The President of the General Assembly, Miguel d'Escoto Brockmann. has condemned the Israeli attacks as "genocide" against the Palestinian people.

The Israeli Invasion of Gaza: Rolling Updates (8 January)

Later Updates: The Israeli Invasion of Gaza (8 January --- Evening)

Latest article: Follow-Up on Gaza: Was the Israeli Attack Planned in June?

3:48 p.m. The perils of Twitter. CNN's story on an Israeli strike on a school in northern Gaza, circulated 30 minutes ago, was actually about the strike on Jabaliya two days ago.

3:30 p.m. Missed this earlier: an eighth Israeli soldier has been killed, hit by an anti-tank missile.

3 p.m. Israeli military says 20 rockets fired from Gaza on Wednesday and 16 so far on Thursday, numbers which are still down from levels at start of conflict. Further evidence that Hamas military units are limiting deployments in the field and staying in cities?



2:15 p.m. Al Jazeera now has a full report on the Israeli firing on the UN aid convoy. One Palestinian was killed.

Israeli operations in Rafah, after warnings to residents to evacuate their homes, concentrated on the bombing of tunnels rather than entry into the city.

2:03 p.m. If We Can't See It, It Doesn't Exist: CNN International has nothing --- nothing --- on the Red Cross report of dead and wounded and firing upon medical personnel by Israeli forces.

It does, however, report on Israeli forces bulldozing a Gazan house, despite white flags on the roof, because correspondent Ben Wedeman can see it from across the border.

2 p.m. Gazan resident Fares Akram writes about yesterday's "respite":

Most people headed for the bakeries, others rushed around with empty containers looking for drinking water. I joined a queue in front of a bakery but unfortunately returned without a single loaf since the bread ran out before it was my turn. Going to the green market was disappointing; there weren't enough vegetables. There were onions and cucumbers but tomatoes, the one thing everyone wants, were scarce. Nor was there any eggplant. There was something on sale that we don't use so much here: sweet pepper, considered a luxury because it's expensive.

1:35 p.m. More interesting stonewalling from IDF spokeswoman Liebovich: she denies any knowledge of Israeli forces firing on ambulances taking away Gazan wounded. Responding to Red Cross complaint, she says, "I don't think it's serious to investigate an event through a press release."

1:30 p.m. UN says aid convoy is fired upon by Israelis. Speaking to al Jazeera, Israeli Defense Forces spokeswoman Avital Liebovich claims to have no knowledge of incident.

Liebovich talks down the firing of rockets into northern Israel as an "isolated incident", indicating both Israel and Hezbollah wish to avoid a second front in the conflict.

1:05 p.m. One of the little-noticed curiosities of the Israeli campaign so far is the relatively light number of "militant" deaths. With more than 300 of the 700 dead are women and children, even if every male killed was a Hamas activist, less than 400 of the bad guys have been slain.

The probable reason? Unsurprisingly, Hamas fighters have not stayed out in the open to be picked off by Israeli forces but have gone back into urban areas. This explains in part why the Israeli Cabinet is in protracted deliberations over whether to order its military into the cities.

The Washington Post has further details.



12:50 p.m. Confirmation of more than 60 Israeli airstrikes overnight, a significant escalation

12:30 p.m. The Israeli Consulate in New York will not be amused: The New York Times has three opinion pieces today --- by Rashid Khalidi, Nicholas Kristof, and Gideon Lichfield --- critical of Israeli strategy and operations in Gaza.

12:10 p.m. Israeli Cabinet has postponed decision on expansion of ground offensive. Information is that minority in Cabinet wish to expand immediately, expelling Hamas and occupying Gaza until a new "responsible" government can be established. Minister of Defense Ehud Barak opposes, however, preferring to exhaust all diplomatic options before moving to a "Phase 3" of the invasion.

Further information that Barak and Olmert support the diplomatic route while Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni is in favour of expanded military operations.

12 noon: Israeli bombardment continues near Jabaliya and Beit Lahoun in northern Gaza.

11:38 a.m. Al Jazeera correspondent says "remarkable" that no casualties in senior citizens' home hit by rocket in Nasariya in northern Israel.

11:35 a.m. Another diplomatic front: Iranian Speaker of the Parliament Ali Larijani met Syrian official and Hamas leaders, including Khaled Mashaal, on Wednesday. Larijani also met representatives of the Palestinian group Islamic Jihad.

11:30 a.m. Gazan death toll now over 700; one-third are children. Israeli death toll is 10, of which seven are soldiers.

11:25 a.m. International Committee of the Red Cross is demanding immediate access to Gaza. The demand follows the incidents in Zeitoun where, in addition to the discovery of dozens of bodies, Red Cross and Red Crescent workers found "weak children laying with their dead mothers".

11:15 a.m. Analysis in Israeli newspaper Ha'aretz:

The five [Israeli] brigades operating in the Strip are preparing as if they will be ordered to take over the entire Strip, but the General Staff believe that the politicians want a deal. In the field the sense is that Hamas has been pushed to the heart of the urban centers, and is avoiding direct contact with the IDF as much as possible.

11 a.m. Al Jazeera reports more rockets from Lebanon fired into northern Israel. Images of damage in Nahariya being shown. Israeli defense sources say that Hezbollah is not responsible; Palestinians in Lebanon more likely.

In Gaza, reports of an Israeli strike on a hospital.

Morning Update: Four rockets from Lebanon have struck northern Israel, wounding two people. The Lebanese Army says that "an unknown group" is responsible. Hamas has denied any involvement, and analysts are suggesting that Palestinians living in Lebanon may have fired the rockets.

The negotiations in Cairo today apparently will be "shuttle" negotiations with brokers talking to Israel and the Palestinian Authority and then to Hamas. Egyptian Foreign Minister Ahmed Aboul Gheit confirmed that, if Hamas representatives attend, "they will not be in the same room as other negotiators".

The United Nations General Assembly will convene to discuss the crisis. This is a logical next step: the Libyan-drafted resolution for an immediate ceasefire will go before the Security Council on Thursday but, even if it had majority support, will be vetoed by the United States.