The Israeli Invasion of Gaza: Rolling Updates (14 January)

Latest Post: Gaza Diaries --- Dying and Awaiting Death
Latest Post: Alive in Gaza Audio and Written Blogs --- "We Do Not Know What Tomorrow is Holding for Us"
Earlier Updates: The Israeli Invasion of Gaza (13 January --- Evening)

7:20 p.m. Sky News in Britain is claiming that Hamas has agreed "in principle" to Egyptian proposals. Unclear, however, if Sky report is based on an earlier announcement by Spanish Foreign Ministry, now retracted. Hamas spokesman Osama Hamdan said earlier to Al Jazeera that "points of difference" remained over the Egyptian proposals, while Hamas spokesman in Syria said agreement had been reached.

More when we get out of a bloggers' gathering in Birmingham.

6:30 p.m. The long-term effect of the Israeli invasion? From today's Washington Post:

A cornerstone of Israel's strategy in Gaza is to crush Hamas's will to fight, especially its determination to fire rockets into southern Israel. But in interviews here with wounded supporters of the Islamist militia, Israel's assaults appear to be breeding more recruits and more popular support for Hamas.

Men who say they have never fought before or were not Hamas loyalists now vow to join the struggle against Israel when they return to Gaza. They include policemen and other professionals who form part of the backbone of Gazan society.

6:05 p.m. While awaiting developments, I found the opening to this report in The New York Times gets to the heart of the political/military matter:

Despite heavy air and ground assaults, Israel has yet to cripple the military wing of Hamas or destroy the group’s ability to launch rockets, Israeli intelligence officials said on Tuesday, suggesting that Israel’s main goals in the conflict remain unfulfilled even after 18 days of war.

The comments reflected a view among some Israeli officials that any lasting solution to the conflict would require either a breakthrough diplomatic accord that heavily restricts Hamas’s military abilities or a deeper ground assault into urban areas of Gaza. 

5:30 p.m. We've just posted an update on two Gaza accounts, the words of a four-year-old girl in a hospital and the extraordinary "Gaza Diary" of Safa Joudeh.



5 p.m. The latest update from the United Nations Humanitarian Coordinator, current to 5 p.m. yesterday:

Civilians, notably children who form 56 percent of Gaza’s population, are bearing the brunt of the violence. As one of the most densely populated places in the world, more civilians risk being killed or injured if the conflict continues. The parties to conflict must respect the norms of International Humanitarian Law (IHL), in particular the principles of distinction and proportionality.

4:45 p.m. The Gazan death toll, according to medical services, has passed 1000. Beyond the morbid symbolism of passing that mark, a colleague at lunch has offered the following: given the Gaza population of 1.5 million, this is the equivalent in US of 200,000 dead.

3 p.m. So here's the statement from Ban Ki-Moon in Cairo:

I repeat my call for an immediate and durable cease-fire. I've been urging in the strongest of possible terms all sides must stop fighting now. We don't have any time to lose.

A statement which, I fear, is spitting into the wind: no evidence of any advance from Ban's talks with the Egyptians.

Afternoon update (2 p.m. Israel/Gaza time): No significant word from Ban Ki-Moon's talks in Cairo. Periodic gunfire and bombings in Gaza City.

Peripheral news: a chap named Osama bin Laden has issued a statement on Gaza, calling for "jihad".

11:05 a.m. Juan Cole considers one of the important effects of the conflict, a souring of relations between Turkey and Israel.

11 a.m. Gazan death toll now 978 with more than 4500 wounded.

10:45 a.m. Huge development which effectively means no advance in the diplomatic process.

Ha'aretz reports on the split in the Israeli Cabinet: Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, who wants to press ahead with military operations, is refusing to meet with Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni and Defense Minister Ehud Barak, both of whom support a cease-fire: "On Wednesday, he will not convene the political-security cabinet to discuss whether the operations should go on."

10:40 a.m. Watching an extraordinary "Inside Story" from Al Jazeeera on protests and the Gaza conflict. Joshua Muravchik of the American Enterprise Institute is close to screaming at the other participants and making statements such as "The Hamas leadership is in a bunker underneath al Shifa hospital" (hmmm.....), "There was not a daysince the Israeli withdrawal from Gaza that went by without a Hamas rocket fired into Israel" (false --- for example, official Israeli figures show only one rocket fired into Israel in July 2008) and "There was no blockade" (I leave that one up to you).

It's simple for Muravchik: Israel and Hamas are "morally unequal".

10:25 a.m.  Global Voices has just posted the heart-felt but disturbing reflections of a Tel Aviv construction worker who worked alongside six Gazans for 18 months in 1996-97. Despite the passage of time, it is well worth a read:

I and most other non-Gazans would break down after a week of such a schedule, but our Gazans lived like this for decades. Up until the day the [Gaza Strip] was shut down once and for all, and the life of people there grew even worse. […] Having seen all this, I understood even then that it was impossible to defeat these people or break them down. They can either be eliminated, or we can learn to live together with them. There are no other options.

(Hat tip to Lisa Goldman.)

10 a.m. This from The Independent of London:

At least three Palestinians in Gaza were shot dead yesterday after Israeli soldiers fired on a group of residents leaving their homes on orders from the military and waving white flags, according to testimony taken by the Israeli human rights group B'Tselem. The testimony was rejected by the military after what it said was a preliminary investigation.

9:50 a.m. Our colleagues at "Alive in Gaza" have posted their first audio despatch, from photojournalist Sameh Habeeb in Gaza City.

Morning update (9:30 a.m. Israel/Gaza time): The overnight military pattern continued. Israeli airstrikes on more than 60 targets, as well as naval and land bombardment. Fighting as Israeli forces further secured their positions around Gazan cities, while in southern Gaza, Israeli planes used bunker-busting bombs on tunnels near Rafah.

The headline development is on the other side of Israel. Three rockets from Lebanon, in the second launch in recent days, landed in northern Israel. The "National Front" has claimed responsibility,but worryingly CNN is already putting out the line that "nothing happens without the wink and nod of Hezbollah".

In what is likely to be a depressing diplomatic sideshow, United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon visits the region today, seeing Egyptian and Arab League leaders on Wednesday and Israeli leaders on Thursday. Without visible support from another international entity, such as the United States or the European Union, or a parallel effort by the Arab League, I am afraid the trip will be publicity without substance (although if Ban can use the trip to get some movement on the humanitarian front, it may not be without value).

Meanwhile, the United Nations General Assembly will convene, offering its own symbolism of a denunciation of Tel Aviv. The President of the General Assembly, Miguel d'Escoto Brockmann. has condemned the Israeli attacks as "genocide" against the Palestinian people.

Rolling Updates on the Israeli Invasion of Gaza (7 January)

Later Story: Follow-Up: That State Department Twitter-Diplomacy….Gives the Game Away?
Later Story: Inconvenient (Rocket) Facts: Israel Still Can't Get It Right
Later Story: Rice to UN: US Seeks Regime Change in Gaza
Later Story: Inconvenient (Rocket) Facts: Israel Gets Caught Out by the BBC


12:45 p.m. Relatively quiet on both military and diplomatic fronts --- not expecting much out of any United Nations discussions --- so we're off for some downtime.

Tomorrow should offer some clues on the political direction of the conflict. With Hamas as well as the Palestinian Authority and Israel going to Cairo for negotiations, there may be some indication as to whether Tel Aviv and Washington will accept a settlement that leaves Hamas in control of Gaza or whether they try to isolate the organisation.

Meanwhile, on the military front, we may get some indication --- given the reports of Israeli moblisation around Rafah and warnings to residents --- of whether Tel Aviv is going to take the ground offensive into the cities.

11:30 p.m. Gazan medical sources say 700 Gazans killed in conflict, 219 are children and 89 are women. More than 3000 wounded: 46 percent are women and children.

11:25 p.m. Jabaliya Doubled: The Daily Telegraph of London is reporting the discovery in Zeitoun by a paramedic of between 60 and 70 bodies of the al Samouni clan (initial reports had put the death toll at 13), killed by Israeli shelling.



About 15 members of the clan were injured. Eight were left behind when Israeli troops began firing on ambulances.

So far, Israel has made no claim that there was Hamas members firing mortars from the shelled house.

10:50 p.m. A summary of Hezbollah Secretary General Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah's speech on the Gaza situation --- "The Scheme is to Give West Bank to Jordan, Gaza to Egypt" --- is now posted in English on the Internet.

10:45 p.m. Took a break to post on today's How Not to Spin Information story: the Israeli consulate in New York, trying to prove Hamas was responsible for breaking the cease-fire, actually makes the case that the Gazan organisation was observing it.

8:45 p.m. Apologies --- missed this earlier. Israeli Cabinet postpones votes on expansion of ground offensive

8:40 p.m. Arab fightback? Representatives of Arab League at United Nations reject US-backed initiative for non-binding statement by President of Security Council and urge binding Security Council resolution for immediate cease-fire. Al Jazeera speculates this is because of growing "embarrassment" over Arab passivity in face of Mubarak-Sarkozy process.

8:30 p.m. Israeli military preparing for entry into Rafah in southern Gaza? Reports of leaflets being dropped on residents warning them to evacuate by 8 a.m. Gaza time

8 p.m. On CNN, French Foreign Ministry spokesman tries to reconcile different stories: Israel has welcomed "process" and "approach" of Mubarak-Sarkozy proposal. Tel Aviv is sending senior advisor to Minister of Defense Ehud Barak to Cairo tomorrow.

Spokesman adds that discussions are taking place with Hamas via Egypt and Syria. On the Palestinian Authority-Hamas issue, he talks of "Palestinian reconciliation".

6:15 p.m. Retractions: French President Sarkozy's office acknowledges that Israel has not accepted the Mubarak-Sarkozy proposal while Israeli military says three-hour "respite" --- to take place every other day ---does apply to all of Gaza, not just Gaza City

5:25 p.m. Important development: Ahmed Youssef, political advisor to Hamas leader Ismail Haniya, tells Al Jazeera there are "good elements" in Mubarak-Sarkozy proposal and hopes for clarification of provisions in next 48 hours. Youssef adds that he hopes negotiation of Mubarak-Sarkozy will be in conjunction with movement in United Nations towards a resolution.

Youssef says the "by-product" of rockets will end when the Israeli occupation is terminated, indicating Hamas will not accept a cease-fire which does not mention Tel Aviv's aggression: "As long as the occupation is there, we have to defend ourselves....When we have full control of our destiny....there will be no firing of rockets."

5:20 p.m. Thomas Friedman carries the media flag for Israel. His latest column in The New York Times, "The Mideast's Ground Zero", is being distributed via Twitter by the Israeli Consulate in New York. And no wonder, six years after Friedman marched into war with Iraq, he's still got an Axis of Evil to grind:

No doubt, Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran are hoping that they can use the Gaza conflict to turn Obama into Bush. They know Barack Hussein Obama must be (am)Bushed — to keep America and its Arab allies on the defensive. Obama has to keep his eye on the prize. His goal — America’s goal — has to be a settlement in Gaza that eliminates the threat of Hamas rockets and opens Gaza economically to the world, under credible international supervision.

5:15 p.m. Confusion over the Mubarak-Sarkozy proposal and possible embarrassment for the French President. France had announced Israel's acceptance of the limited cease-fire, but Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert says that proposal is still being studied.

5 p.m. Two hours into the three-hour respite but Al Jazeera says there are reports of fresh fighting in Gaza City. Seven Israeli airstrikes, mainly in northeast Gaza.

The respite has allowed paramedics to get to some areas of Gaza for first time.

4:20 p.m. Israel "clarifies" the three-hour respite: says it applies only to Gaza City

3:45 p.m. A break from Gaza coverage to more important issues: CNN International is running an in-depth investigation of Oprah Winfrey's weight

3:20 p.m. Osama Hamdan of Hamas says organisation is considering Mubarak-Sarkozy proposal along with "other initiatives",  maintains cautious line --- "If we criticise Egypt, it does not mean we cannot discuss with Egypt"

3:12 p.m. Hamas officials say they are considering the Mubarak-Sarkozy proposal.

3:10 p.m. French officials say both Israel and Palestinian Authority have accepted the Mubarak-Sarkozy proposal for a limited cease-fire and talks in Cairo.

3:05 p.m. Respite, after firing from both sides in opening minutes, reported to be "generally holding". At least 683 Gazans killed since start of conflict.

2:20 p.m. Report of "tens of thousands" of mourners at funerals of the victims of Jabaliya school/shelter bombing.

UN officials "99.9 percent certain" that there were no militants in the shelter.

2:00 p.m. An  hour after the "respite" began, shelling resumes north of Gaza City, although more civilians are on the streets in the centre of the city. Machine gun fire near Beit Lahoun.

1:35 p.m. Israeli Defense Forces say they have suspended operations for three hours. Hamas says it will match this by suspending firing of rockets.

1:10 p.m. Israeli airstrikes kill four people outside a  mosque in Gaza City and two people in the Zeitoun district. Explosions reported in Jabaliya and Beit Lahiya.



12:55 p.m. London-based Arabic-language newspaper al-Quds al-Arabi reports that officers of US Army Engineering Corps have been stationed at Rafah to unearth smugglers' tunnels --- unclear whether they are now on Egyptian or Gazan side or border

12:45 p.m. Israel seizes the media initiative, at least with CNN: its headline story is of Tel Aviv's offer of a "short respite" with the three-hour pause in bombing each day, while the Jabiliya deaths are at the foot of the story (and noted with "The Israeli military said Hamas militants were firing mortars from the school").

11:55 a.m. No humanitarian bombing pause yet: Al Jazeera reports heavy Israeli bombing around city of Rafah on Egypt-Gaza border.

11:34 a.m. Dan Gillerman, the former Israeli Ambassador to the UN and the coordinator of Israel's information operations, tells Al Jazeera that the deaths in the Jabaliya bombing are "horrible tragedy" but whereas each death is "a cause for sadness" for Israel, each is "a cause for celebration" for Hamas.

Gillerman refuses to address the question of whether Israel violated international law with the shelling of the school/shelter. John Ging, United Nations Relief and Works Agency official, repeats that the GPS coordinates of the school/shelter were given to Israeli forces, and calls for a "full investigation".

11:10 a.m. Israeli Cabinet currently discussing military operations, including possible expansion of ground offensive with mobilisation of tens of thousands of reservists. Israeli forces reported to be in "holding pattern" around Gazan cities.

11 a.m. Israel announces, for the "humanitarian corridor", that it will halt military attacks for three hours each day. Al Jazeera reports Gazan reaction: "What about the other 21 hours a day?"

10:20 a.m. I have known and learned for 20 years from Professor Avi Shlaim, one of Britain's foremost historians on the Middle East. In today's Guardian of London, he has an opinion piece, "How Israel Brought Gaza to the Brink of Humanitarian Catastrophe", offering the historical context to the current crisis:

This brief review of Israel's record over the past four decades makes it difficult to resist the conclusion that it has become a rogue state with "an utterly unscrupulous set of leaders". A rogue state habitually violates international law, possesses weapons of mass destruction and practises terrorism - the use of violence against civilians for political purposes. Israel fulfils all of these three criteria; the cap fits and it must wear it. Israel's real aim is not peaceful coexistence with its Palestinian neighbours but military domination.

9:40 a.m. The United Nations Humanitarian Coordinator has released a situation report, current to 6 p.m. on 6 January, detailing casualties and damages from Israeli bombing and shelling. It also sets out the status of medical services and shelter and the provision of food, fuel, water, and electricity.

9:15 a.m. Ayman al-Zawahiri, the deputy chief of Al Qa'eda, issued a statement calling the Gaza conflict a "gift" from President-elect Barack Obama with "that traitor" Hosni Mubarak as the main partner.

Frankly, I consider this a sign of the relative weakness and peripheral place of Al Qa'eda, except to a small group of core activists, not only in Gaza but in international affairs. Far more important, as Juan Cole has noted, is the impact upon local "insurgents" in places such as Afghanistan, as they use the wider policies of countries like the US to mobilise their supporters.

9:05 a.m. Other success of Mubarak-Sarkozy proposal is pushing the specific incident of the shelling of Jabaliya school/shelter, which killed at least 43 and wounded at least 100 Gazans, and the general humanitarian issue to the background. Al Jazeera is leading with the Jabiliya killings but other news services have put it in the background.

The Israeli proposal for a "humanitarian corridor" appears to be a public-relations success, at least for the moment. And, contrary to my opinion yesterday, it seems that Jabaliya will not be the successor to Qana (Lebanon) 2006, when dozens of civilian deaths in a single incident helped force an end to military operations.

Jabaliya was one of three schools/shelters struck yesterday. More than 660 Gazans have now died.

9 a.m. Lead development is the Mubarak-Sarkozy proposal for immediate cease-fire and meetings in Cairo between Israel and Palestinian "factions"

There is still lack of clarity on proposals such as arrangements for border security and when and to what extent blockade would be lifted. Perhaps most important, no confirmation on whether Hamas would be invited to negotiations. In fact, there is not even agreement on the cease-fire. United States is still holding out against any cessation of military operations.

However, immediate "success" of the proposal is to block any UN resolution on the crisis. Initiative is now clearly with France, Egypt as the Arab "leader", and --- behind them --- the US and European countries. If Israel and the Palestinian Authority play their parts,, then this could be an ambitious move for a "grand design" on Gaza. This would include isolating and possibly overthrowing Hamas.