The Israeli Invasion of Gaza: Rolling Updates (18 January)

Earlier updates: The Israeli Invasion of Gaza (17 January)
Latest Post: Hello? Gaza is Not Tehran

1 a.m. Last night we closed with: "At the very least, I’m grateful that there has been a cessation of violence in Gaza. My concern is that we’re at the start of a different phase which will not bring resolution but further hardship."

More of the same tonight. Today has been for mourning rather than dying --- only one death from violence to my knowledge, while close to 100 bodies have been pulled from the rubble. There appears to be a very gradual Israeli pullback from the edges of the cities as they re-trench in their military occupation.

The politics today was posturing, as a lot of leaders tried to figure out how to respond to Israel's unilateral "cease-fire". The Europeans appear to be paralysed, as they await a President Obama, while Egypt's Hosni Mubarak is scrambling to save his personal position. The Saudis have gone into hiding.

That means that the diplomatic baton --- perhaps unexpectedly, if you scripted this a month ago --- passes to Syria and other countries pursuing a stronger line in favour of Hamas. They will be at the Arab countries' economic summit in Kuwait tomorrow, and it will be interesting to see how forthright they take their position to Egypt and Saudi Arabia.

The main question remains: how long will Israel hold out with its re-occupation in the hope that Hamas will crumble?

Good night and peace to all.



12:30 a.m. United Nations official Chris Gunness has told Al Jazeera that 53 UN installations have been destroyed or damaged in the Gaza conflict.

12 midnight: The "other" emerging regional bloc in this conflict, with Syria as the Arab country in the lead and including Turkey and Iran, took a back seat to the Sharm el-Sheikh summit today. Tomorrow, however, all Arab states are at an economic summit in Kuwait, and you can expect manoeuvring to take the lead in the discussions over Gaza. So this comment from Syrian leader Bashir al-Assad, made on Friday at the Qatar mini-summit, might be noteworthy:

We will take care to remind our children of the Gaza slaughter. We will save the pictures of the children of Gaza with their wounds and blood, and we will teach our children that the strong believer is better than the weak. We will teach them: “An eye for an eye and a tooth for a tooth, and he who started it is the more unjust. What is taken by force will not be returned but by force.

11:25 p.m. And now Political Quick Move of the Day: apparently Bono, while performing at the Inaugural Concert for President-elect Barack Obama, just shouted out for "a Palestinian dream". As an observer noted, "Oy, the Israelis are not going to like that." (Obama, having promised not to issue any meaningful statements on Gaza until Tuesday, will react in 36 hours.)

11 p.m. Dropping objectivity for a moment to offer the Horrific Propaganda Story of the Day:

The Israeli Consulate has Twittered proudly that "Israel Opens Field Clinic at Gaza Border to Treat Palestinian Wounded": "One Palestinian woman was already being treated in the clinic eight-bed clinic that includes a pharmacy, an X-ray machine and five consultation rooms."

Hmm, this feels like offering a fella a Band-Aid after you've beaten him to a pulp. I guess it would be churlish of me to note that it would take 650 of these clinics for all the wounded from the conflict. And even more churlish to note that a lot of wounded died in the last three weeks because of appalling conditions in hospitals and Israel's bombing and shelling of medical services.

8:45 p.m. The video report of the demolition of houses and killing of at least 14 in Khuza'a is now posted on YouTube.

8 p.m. Israel military sources say to Al Jazeera and Reuters, "I can confirm that a gradual withdrawal of our forces is under way," but it is unclear how many troops are involved and how far they are pulling back. Eyewitnesses are reporting some Israeli units are moving back from edge of Gaza City, and Israeli television is showing images of tanks re-crossing border from Gaza.

Israeli military says 19 rockets fired into Israel today.

7:30 p.m. Speaking of Rafah Kid, he has video on his website of the mass killing at Khuza'a, which an article today in The Observer exposed today as a possible Israeli war crime.

7:25 p.m. Rafah Kid offers a pertinent twist on the formula, put forth at today's Sharm el-Sheikh summit, of a "secure Israel and a viable Palestine":

Ha! Imagine if written like this --- "viable Israel and a secure Palestine". Because that's the paradox that is the cause of this mess.

7:20 p.m. More than 90 bodies found today in rubble in Gaza.

4:30 p.m. Further from the Sharm al-Sheikh summit: not much of significance. Notable that King Abdullah of Jordan talked about need for Europe and US to revive the peace process but did not refer to an Arab country apart from Egypt. And United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon made a speech that was so relevant that British and Spanish Prime Ministers Brown and Zapatero could be seen laughing and chatting about other matters.

4:25 p.m. Al Jazeera's Mouin Rabbani: "This war, perhaps more than any other event in the last decade or so, has transformed peace into a dirty word and has transformed negotiations into an even dirtier word. And resistance, which had been very much a dirty word in the last 15 words, is now the word and the concept which is increasingly on the lips of the people in this region."

4:20 p.m. Al Jazeera's Mouin Rabbani has just roasted Mubarak, Sarkozy, and Brown: "I'm speechless that in 2009, you can have a major international gathering to discuss the Israel-Palestine conflict and have a whole series of keynote speeches in which the word 'occupation' is not mentions even once."

4:13 p.m. British Prime Minister Gordon Brown, who oftens play the aid card at international conferences, starts with a pledge to treble Britain's humanitarian aid to Gaza. That step, however, rests on Israeli goodwill towards aid distribution in Gaza, and Brown can only blather --- after a name-check to "President Obama" --- Europe must ensure political settlement to ensure "secure Israel and a viable Palestine".

4:10 p.m. French President Nicolas Sarkozy follows Mubarak. He initially emphasises the deal with Israel to stop arms shipments to Gaza but then delivers a stinger to Tel Aviv: "Israel should state immediately and clearly that, when rocket fire stops, the Israeli army will leave Gaza. There is no other solution for peace."

It looks like Israel may have unilaterally put itself into isolation over political and military issues in Gaza.

4 p.m This could be fun: Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak just opened the Sharm el-Sheikh conference and, after the platitudes, told Israel to "get stuffed" on any ideas of an international force monitoring the Egypt-Gaza border from the Egyptian side: "Egypt will never accept a foreign force." Mubarak also invoked an "independent Palestianian state" without using the US and Israeli formula of the Palestinian Authority as the "legitimate Palestinian Government".

3:40 p.m. Another rocket reported to have hit Ashdod about 30 minutes ago.

3:20 p.m. A bit disturbing: Barack Obama either hasn't caught up with the plot or he is so cautious that he risks putting himself in a difficult position when he takes office on Tuesday: his spokesman says Obama "welcomes Israel's ceasefire in the Gaza Strip and is committed to helping Israelis and Palestinians work toward peace".

Unlike the Bush Administration and Condoleezza Rice's statement, which focused on the Cairo talks today and looked beyond Tel Aviv to put hope in a "true" internationally-arranged cease-fire, Obama is on the verge --- unintentionally or deliberately --- of tying himself to Israel.

3:07 p.m. Clarification on the Zeitoun atrocity: the number of "95 bodies" appears to have been a misstatement in the confusion as recovery efforts were disrupted by the advance of Israeli tanks. More than 100 people were in the al-Samouni compound; in addition to the more than 30 confirmed killed last week, at least 15 bodies have been recovered today and more are in the rubble.

3:05 p.m. Al Jazeera's Ayman Moyheldin: "It's going to take years to rebuild what has been destroyed in these 22 days."

2:45 p.m. An intriguing statement from US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice which, despite Reuters' headline "US Welcomes Gaza Ceasefire", is far from a ringing endorsement.

Of course Rice did not criticise Tel Aviv, but she clearly looked beyond it when she said, "The goal remains a durable and fully respected ceasefire that will lead to stabilisation and normalisation in Gaza." In particular, Rice tried to boost the manoeuvres in Cairo today: "The United States commends Egypt for its efforts and remains deeply concerned by the suffering of innocent Palestinians. We welcome calls for immediate coordinated international action to increase assistance flows and will contribute to such efforts."

I suspect the US, like Egypt, has been a bit wrong-footed by Israel's unilateral move, and Washington is now trying to recover an international strategy towards Gaza and Hamas.

2:35 p.m. Al Jazeera's Ayman Moyheldin: "The destruction we are seeing is unimaginable." He says, "Streets have been bulldozed for kilometres", and building reduced to rubble.

2:30 p.m. An important move by Hamas: Ayman Taha has told Reuters that the Gazan organisation is ceasing fire for one week, giving Israel a chance to pull out of the territory.

2 p.m. The scale of the Zeitoun atrocity, which we noted last week, is becoming clear: medics report up to 95 bodies in the al-Samouni compound. Israeli tanks are in area, so ambulances, medical personnel, Al Jazeera's crew, and bystanders are fleeing.

1:50 p.m. Israeli military spokeswoman Amital Leibovich lays down Tel Aviv's line: "If Hamas chooses to still launch rockets, we'll answer back and we'll answer back harshly."

1:10 p.m. Israeli Government spokesman Mark Regev: "We can't talk about a timetable for withdrawal until we know the ceasefire is holding."

12:25 p.m. The first death of the "cease-fire": Gazan civilian killed by Israeli fire near Khan Younis.

11:35 a.m. The challenge to the Israeli strategy: The Observer of London offers this evaluation of Hamas, based on interviews with Gazans: "The organisation's prestige appears to have survived intact, and even emerged enhanced."

11 a.m. And The Observer of London is also preferring to look at issues beyond the "unilateral cease-fire":

Israel stands accused of perpetrating a series of war crimes during a sustained 12-hour assault on a village in southern Gaza last week in which 14 people died. In testimony collected from residents of the village of Khuza'a by the Observer, it is claimed that Israeli soldiers entering the village attempted to bulldoze houses with civilians inside; killed civilians trying to escape under the protection of white flags; opened fire on an ambulance attempting to reach the wounded; used indiscriminate force in a civilian area and fired white phosphorus shells.

10:50 a.m. The Independent of London is way off-script this morning, noting the cease-fire but leading with the headline: "'Tungsten bombs' leave Israel's victims with mystery wounds." Physicians, including the Norwegian doctor Erik Fosse who helped expose the scale of civilian casualties, detail the injuries suffered from dense inert metal explosive (DIME) weapons.

10:30 a.m. Al Jazeera's Ayman Moyheldin: 25 bodies found as Gazans dig through rubble.

10:16 a.m. Tel Aviv, attempting both to gloss its claimed victory and to turn the game back towards Iran, puts out the Hamas=Tehran line: "Israeli leaders say the pounding of Hamas dealt a blow to Iran, which Israel accuses of backing the Palestinian group, and to Hezbollah, the Shiite militia in Lebanon that fought Israel to a stalemate in 2006."

10:15 a.m. Israeli Army announces that it has launched airstrikes against sites for this morning's rocket launches.

9:50 a.m. While we think the Israeli strategy sought "regime change" in Gaza, there is another explanation: Prime Minister Ehud Olmert --- and this has been "Olmert's War" --- wanted a military victory to erase his failure in 2006 against Hezbollah. Aluf Benn in Ha'aretz sets this out, but adds, "Hamas' gains cannot be ignored: It has won international legitimacy and sympathy, and its forces still control the Gaza Strip."

9:35 a.m. Our colleague Rami Khouri to Al Jazeera: "There is no chance of any unilateral move by Israel having any success. It has to be a negotiated agreement that responds to the basic legitimate needs of both sides."

9:25 a.m. At least four rockets fired towards Sderot in southern Israel this hour. Machine-gun fire in Gaza on the ground, with constant overflights by Israeli planes.

9:20 a.m. Hamas advisor Ahmed Youssef: Israel still occupying and threatening Gaza so "we have to do something. This is not a treaty. This is not a peaceful initiative. This is nothing." If Israel withdrew, "of course" Hamas would halt operations.

Morning update (9:15 a.m. Israel/Gaza time): So Gaza awoke this morning to the "cease-fire" that isn't a cease-fire. Israel, unable to finish off Hamas militarily with a battle in the cities, now moves into a "Phase 4": Tel Aviv hopes either to finish off its Gazan enemy through further political and economic constriction or, if Hamas offers a suitable pretext through rocket fire or attacks on Israeli troops, re-starting more bombing and even more intensive ground operations.



The Israeli manoeuvre both tries to deflect growing international pressure against its Gazan strategy and to put the ball in Hamas' court. Does the Gazan leadership offer a clear sign that "resistance continues" through rocket attacks, inviting Tel Aviv to resume its military campaign, or does it sit back, hoping to win the political and diplomatic battle? The possible answer is an attempted balance between a limited number of rocket launches and a visible political campaign to free Gaza from its misery and re-occupation, but this may be difficult to achieve with the leadership so dispersed and, in some cases, operating out of hiding.

Ironically, the Israeli unilateral "cease-fire" may bring regional countries to the forefront of this crisis. Hamas needs support to withstand Tel Aviv's latest moves, and this could come from the emerging bloc led by Syria, Turkey, and Iran and supported by some Gulf countries.

Meanwhile, Egypt will try to fashion an alternative multi-national response today when it hosts leaders from the Palestinian Authority, European countries, and the United Nations, and representatives from the European Commission, Russia, and the US. (The sharp-eyed will notice that Jordan is the only other Arab country present. Saudi Arabia is staying away.) Those attending walk another tightrope: how closely do they follow Tel Aviv, for example with support for the initiative to block arms to Gaza, and how much distance do they keep given internal difficulties and the lack of a post-Hamas solution?

Rolling Updates on the Israeli Invasion of Gaza (7 January)

Later Story: Follow-Up: That State Department Twitter-Diplomacy….Gives the Game Away?
Later Story: Inconvenient (Rocket) Facts: Israel Still Can't Get It Right
Later Story: Rice to UN: US Seeks Regime Change in Gaza
Later Story: Inconvenient (Rocket) Facts: Israel Gets Caught Out by the BBC


12:45 p.m. Relatively quiet on both military and diplomatic fronts --- not expecting much out of any United Nations discussions --- so we're off for some downtime.

Tomorrow should offer some clues on the political direction of the conflict. With Hamas as well as the Palestinian Authority and Israel going to Cairo for negotiations, there may be some indication as to whether Tel Aviv and Washington will accept a settlement that leaves Hamas in control of Gaza or whether they try to isolate the organisation.

Meanwhile, on the military front, we may get some indication --- given the reports of Israeli moblisation around Rafah and warnings to residents --- of whether Tel Aviv is going to take the ground offensive into the cities.

11:30 p.m. Gazan medical sources say 700 Gazans killed in conflict, 219 are children and 89 are women. More than 3000 wounded: 46 percent are women and children.

11:25 p.m. Jabaliya Doubled: The Daily Telegraph of London is reporting the discovery in Zeitoun by a paramedic of between 60 and 70 bodies of the al Samouni clan (initial reports had put the death toll at 13), killed by Israeli shelling.



About 15 members of the clan were injured. Eight were left behind when Israeli troops began firing on ambulances.

So far, Israel has made no claim that there was Hamas members firing mortars from the shelled house.

10:50 p.m. A summary of Hezbollah Secretary General Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah's speech on the Gaza situation --- "The Scheme is to Give West Bank to Jordan, Gaza to Egypt" --- is now posted in English on the Internet.

10:45 p.m. Took a break to post on today's How Not to Spin Information story: the Israeli consulate in New York, trying to prove Hamas was responsible for breaking the cease-fire, actually makes the case that the Gazan organisation was observing it.

8:45 p.m. Apologies --- missed this earlier. Israeli Cabinet postpones votes on expansion of ground offensive

8:40 p.m. Arab fightback? Representatives of Arab League at United Nations reject US-backed initiative for non-binding statement by President of Security Council and urge binding Security Council resolution for immediate cease-fire. Al Jazeera speculates this is because of growing "embarrassment" over Arab passivity in face of Mubarak-Sarkozy process.

8:30 p.m. Israeli military preparing for entry into Rafah in southern Gaza? Reports of leaflets being dropped on residents warning them to evacuate by 8 a.m. Gaza time

8 p.m. On CNN, French Foreign Ministry spokesman tries to reconcile different stories: Israel has welcomed "process" and "approach" of Mubarak-Sarkozy proposal. Tel Aviv is sending senior advisor to Minister of Defense Ehud Barak to Cairo tomorrow.

Spokesman adds that discussions are taking place with Hamas via Egypt and Syria. On the Palestinian Authority-Hamas issue, he talks of "Palestinian reconciliation".

6:15 p.m. Retractions: French President Sarkozy's office acknowledges that Israel has not accepted the Mubarak-Sarkozy proposal while Israeli military says three-hour "respite" --- to take place every other day ---does apply to all of Gaza, not just Gaza City

5:25 p.m. Important development: Ahmed Youssef, political advisor to Hamas leader Ismail Haniya, tells Al Jazeera there are "good elements" in Mubarak-Sarkozy proposal and hopes for clarification of provisions in next 48 hours. Youssef adds that he hopes negotiation of Mubarak-Sarkozy will be in conjunction with movement in United Nations towards a resolution.

Youssef says the "by-product" of rockets will end when the Israeli occupation is terminated, indicating Hamas will not accept a cease-fire which does not mention Tel Aviv's aggression: "As long as the occupation is there, we have to defend ourselves....When we have full control of our destiny....there will be no firing of rockets."

5:20 p.m. Thomas Friedman carries the media flag for Israel. His latest column in The New York Times, "The Mideast's Ground Zero", is being distributed via Twitter by the Israeli Consulate in New York. And no wonder, six years after Friedman marched into war with Iraq, he's still got an Axis of Evil to grind:

No doubt, Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran are hoping that they can use the Gaza conflict to turn Obama into Bush. They know Barack Hussein Obama must be (am)Bushed — to keep America and its Arab allies on the defensive. Obama has to keep his eye on the prize. His goal — America’s goal — has to be a settlement in Gaza that eliminates the threat of Hamas rockets and opens Gaza economically to the world, under credible international supervision.

5:15 p.m. Confusion over the Mubarak-Sarkozy proposal and possible embarrassment for the French President. France had announced Israel's acceptance of the limited cease-fire, but Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert says that proposal is still being studied.

5 p.m. Two hours into the three-hour respite but Al Jazeera says there are reports of fresh fighting in Gaza City. Seven Israeli airstrikes, mainly in northeast Gaza.

The respite has allowed paramedics to get to some areas of Gaza for first time.

4:20 p.m. Israel "clarifies" the three-hour respite: says it applies only to Gaza City

3:45 p.m. A break from Gaza coverage to more important issues: CNN International is running an in-depth investigation of Oprah Winfrey's weight

3:20 p.m. Osama Hamdan of Hamas says organisation is considering Mubarak-Sarkozy proposal along with "other initiatives",  maintains cautious line --- "If we criticise Egypt, it does not mean we cannot discuss with Egypt"

3:12 p.m. Hamas officials say they are considering the Mubarak-Sarkozy proposal.

3:10 p.m. French officials say both Israel and Palestinian Authority have accepted the Mubarak-Sarkozy proposal for a limited cease-fire and talks in Cairo.

3:05 p.m. Respite, after firing from both sides in opening minutes, reported to be "generally holding". At least 683 Gazans killed since start of conflict.

2:20 p.m. Report of "tens of thousands" of mourners at funerals of the victims of Jabaliya school/shelter bombing.

UN officials "99.9 percent certain" that there were no militants in the shelter.

2:00 p.m. An  hour after the "respite" began, shelling resumes north of Gaza City, although more civilians are on the streets in the centre of the city. Machine gun fire near Beit Lahoun.

1:35 p.m. Israeli Defense Forces say they have suspended operations for three hours. Hamas says it will match this by suspending firing of rockets.

1:10 p.m. Israeli airstrikes kill four people outside a  mosque in Gaza City and two people in the Zeitoun district. Explosions reported in Jabaliya and Beit Lahiya.



12:55 p.m. London-based Arabic-language newspaper al-Quds al-Arabi reports that officers of US Army Engineering Corps have been stationed at Rafah to unearth smugglers' tunnels --- unclear whether they are now on Egyptian or Gazan side or border

12:45 p.m. Israel seizes the media initiative, at least with CNN: its headline story is of Tel Aviv's offer of a "short respite" with the three-hour pause in bombing each day, while the Jabiliya deaths are at the foot of the story (and noted with "The Israeli military said Hamas militants were firing mortars from the school").

11:55 a.m. No humanitarian bombing pause yet: Al Jazeera reports heavy Israeli bombing around city of Rafah on Egypt-Gaza border.

11:34 a.m. Dan Gillerman, the former Israeli Ambassador to the UN and the coordinator of Israel's information operations, tells Al Jazeera that the deaths in the Jabaliya bombing are "horrible tragedy" but whereas each death is "a cause for sadness" for Israel, each is "a cause for celebration" for Hamas.

Gillerman refuses to address the question of whether Israel violated international law with the shelling of the school/shelter. John Ging, United Nations Relief and Works Agency official, repeats that the GPS coordinates of the school/shelter were given to Israeli forces, and calls for a "full investigation".

11:10 a.m. Israeli Cabinet currently discussing military operations, including possible expansion of ground offensive with mobilisation of tens of thousands of reservists. Israeli forces reported to be in "holding pattern" around Gazan cities.

11 a.m. Israel announces, for the "humanitarian corridor", that it will halt military attacks for three hours each day. Al Jazeera reports Gazan reaction: "What about the other 21 hours a day?"

10:20 a.m. I have known and learned for 20 years from Professor Avi Shlaim, one of Britain's foremost historians on the Middle East. In today's Guardian of London, he has an opinion piece, "How Israel Brought Gaza to the Brink of Humanitarian Catastrophe", offering the historical context to the current crisis:

This brief review of Israel's record over the past four decades makes it difficult to resist the conclusion that it has become a rogue state with "an utterly unscrupulous set of leaders". A rogue state habitually violates international law, possesses weapons of mass destruction and practises terrorism - the use of violence against civilians for political purposes. Israel fulfils all of these three criteria; the cap fits and it must wear it. Israel's real aim is not peaceful coexistence with its Palestinian neighbours but military domination.

9:40 a.m. The United Nations Humanitarian Coordinator has released a situation report, current to 6 p.m. on 6 January, detailing casualties and damages from Israeli bombing and shelling. It also sets out the status of medical services and shelter and the provision of food, fuel, water, and electricity.

9:15 a.m. Ayman al-Zawahiri, the deputy chief of Al Qa'eda, issued a statement calling the Gaza conflict a "gift" from President-elect Barack Obama with "that traitor" Hosni Mubarak as the main partner.

Frankly, I consider this a sign of the relative weakness and peripheral place of Al Qa'eda, except to a small group of core activists, not only in Gaza but in international affairs. Far more important, as Juan Cole has noted, is the impact upon local "insurgents" in places such as Afghanistan, as they use the wider policies of countries like the US to mobilise their supporters.

9:05 a.m. Other success of Mubarak-Sarkozy proposal is pushing the specific incident of the shelling of Jabaliya school/shelter, which killed at least 43 and wounded at least 100 Gazans, and the general humanitarian issue to the background. Al Jazeera is leading with the Jabiliya killings but other news services have put it in the background.

The Israeli proposal for a "humanitarian corridor" appears to be a public-relations success, at least for the moment. And, contrary to my opinion yesterday, it seems that Jabaliya will not be the successor to Qana (Lebanon) 2006, when dozens of civilian deaths in a single incident helped force an end to military operations.

Jabaliya was one of three schools/shelters struck yesterday. More than 660 Gazans have now died.

9 a.m. Lead development is the Mubarak-Sarkozy proposal for immediate cease-fire and meetings in Cairo between Israel and Palestinian "factions"

There is still lack of clarity on proposals such as arrangements for border security and when and to what extent blockade would be lifted. Perhaps most important, no confirmation on whether Hamas would be invited to negotiations. In fact, there is not even agreement on the cease-fire. United States is still holding out against any cessation of military operations.

However, immediate "success" of the proposal is to block any UN resolution on the crisis. Initiative is now clearly with France, Egypt as the Arab "leader", and --- behind them --- the US and European countries. If Israel and the Palestinian Authority play their parts,, then this could be an ambitious move for a "grand design" on Gaza. This would include isolating and possibly overthrowing Hamas.