The Israeli Invasion of Gaza: Updates (20 January)

See also: Chris Emery on Israeli Elections and the Gaza Crisis: What Has Changed?

12:30 a.m. That's all for today. No real diplomatic shifts, and the story of a possible full Israeli withdrawal to welcome President Obama was clearly spin.

Most dramatic development was UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon's speech when he discovered the extent of the destruction wrought by Israeli forces. Whether his emotive criticism of Tel Aviv has any effect, especially as he went straight from Gaza to a meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, is another question.

Good night and peace to all.

11:55 p.m. Israeli Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni has moved to re-define any initiatives for a settlement with Hamas, announcing in a campaign speech that Israel will not end its blockade of Gaza until there is progress in talks on the release of Gilad Shalit, an Israeli soldier held in Gaza since June 2006.

Meanwhile, Israel has re-confirmed its strategy to get the Palestinian Authority back into Gaza, declaring that any aid to the area should go through the UN, non-governmental organisations, or the PA.

11:40 p.m. The International Atomic Energy Agency will investigate complaints, lodged by ambassadors of Arab countries, that Israel has used depleted uranium in its munitions during the Gaza conflict.

11:30 p.m. Ha'aretz is reporting skirmishes in violation of the Gaza cease-fire on Tuesday. After Palestinian militants (not necessarily from Hamas) fired eight mortars, the Israeli Defense Forces launched an airstrike on the positions. Gunmen also fired on Israeli troops in two separate incidents.



9:45 p.m. Repeating the- importanfiret news from earlier today: Arab countries at the Kuwait summit have been unable to agree on how to support reconstruction in Gaza, disagreeing on whether aid can be dispersed via Hamas.

Meanwhile, it appears that the Obama Administration will name former Senator George Mitchell, who was instrumental in the negotiations of an agreement on Northern Ireland, as his envoy to the Middle East.

9:30 p.m. Hezbollah leader Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah has phoned Hamas leader Khaled Meshaal to congratulate Hamas on the "victory achieved by confronting the Zionist aggression on Gaza".

9:20 p.m. We're back after a break to live-blog the Inaugural of President Barack Obama.

Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert has been quick to offer thanks to former President George W. Bush and a welcome to Obama:

The values of democracy, brotherhood and freedom that constitute the building blocks of American society are also shared by Israeli society, together with the faith in man's power and ability to change and influence his surroundings. We wish the incoming President success in his office and are certain that we will be full partners in advancing peace and stability in the Middle East.

3:35 p.m. Al Jazeera's Mouin Rabbani on Ban's statement: "Those were very, very, very powerful words. We haven't seen a leader of this stature speak such language...condemning Israel but not the Palestinians, using the term 'Palestinian self-determination', calling for investigations and accountability....The Rubicon has been crossed here."

3:15 p.m. Ah, there he is: Ban Ki-Moon emerges, a bit shaken from his debriefing by UN staff. He is "not able to describe" how he feels about the damage and devastation, and he has "expressed his utter frustration, his utter anger" about the attack on the UN compound, asking for those responsible to be accountable.

Political questions remain: Ban continues to press the notion of "Palestinian unity", possibly without any consideration that this might imply the imposition of the Palestinian Authority upon Gaza.

2:45 p.m. UN Secretary Ban Ki-Moon is still in hiding in the UN Relief and Works Agency in Gaza. Al Jazeera has been featuring a shot of a bank of microphones on an empty podium for the last 90 minutes.

1:40 p.m. Arab leaders at Kuwait summit pledge $2 billion for Gaza reconstruction but divide sharply over how to distribute aid: Egypt and Saudi Arabia oppose direct provision to Hamas. On the symbolic front, there is some consensus with the call for Israeli political and military leaders to be tried for war crimes.

1:10 p.m. Donald Macintyre in The Independent of London has more details of the Zeitoun mass killing.

1:02 p.m. Oh, good, a fight over the military figures rather than the humanitarian toll: Israel claims more than 500 Hamas fighters killed (vs. Hamas claim of 48 and "Palestinian factions" claim of 112 plus 170 policemen), more than 12oo of Hamas' 2000 rockets destroyed, and 80 percent of tunnels shut down.

1 p.m. Robert Fisk sums up yesterday's Kuwait summit in nine words: "There was really no adequate comment for this charade."

12:50 p.m. The medical crisis continues: Nasser Medical Compound in Khan Younis has appealed to Arab nursing unions and international organizations to “urgently send nursing staff” to the Gaza Strip to fill a large void there.

12:40 p.m. I don't know if UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon is lost, or just too embarrassed to come out, but still no press conference from his visit to Gaza.

12:30 p.m. Interesting dichotomy in Gaza coverage in US and Britain: while broadcast networks have largely moved away from the news service, print journalists --- some belatedly getting access to sites and sources --- are continuing to highlight the legal and humanitarian issues. Sheera Frenkel of The Times has followed the articles in The Guardian with a human-interest story from Israeli attacks on Jabaliya, "Blind and burnt: Mahmoud, 14, young victim of banned white phosphorus shelling", and the revelation: "The Times has uncovered dozens of incidents in which doctors say that civilians have been wounded by white phosphorus."

12:15 p.m. So much for that Arab "Consensus"? Iraqi Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari has apparently told news services that delegations at the Kuwait summit "are unable to agree on a unified statement about Gaza".

10:20 a.m. Al Jazeera's Ayman Moyheldin continues to warn of possible outbreak of disease, with bodies now weeks old and sewage flowing over in many areas.

9:55 a.m. Eyewitnesses are telling Al Jazeera that Israeli troops are destroying buildings and infrastructure as they pull back in Gaza.

9:45 a.m. United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon will be in Gaza in just over an hour.

Morning Updates (8 a.m. Israel/Gaza time): The Central Bureau of Statistics in Palestine has confirmed more than 1300 Gazans have been killed and more than 5400 wounded in the conflict. More than 4,000 buildings were destroyed; another 18,000 were severely damaged. The total cost to Gaza of the invasion is more than $1.9 billion. A new and staggering figure: more than 80 percent of Gazan crops were destroyed.

Hamas has survived as the Gazan leadership, however, and it will offer a public demonstration today with a "victory rally".

Meanwhile, Barack Obama's team keep insisting that he will now enter the diplomatic arena, named a special envoy to the Middle East today. United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon will maintained his even-handed intervention with a visit to Sderot in southern Israel; there are reports he will also visit the Gaza Strip.

Update: Gaza Diaries --- Dying and Awaiting Death

Rory McCarthy and Hazem Balousha in The Guardian met a four-year-old in a Gaza hospital:

Samer was hit by a bullet in the back that damaged her spinal cord and left her arms and legs paralysed, probably permanently. Her sisters Amal, two, and Suad, eight, who was nicknamed Soso, were killed outright when their house in northern Gaza came under attack from an Israeli tank last week.

"They killed us. We're dead. Me, Amal and Soso. They've gone to heaven," she said. "I was at home. The Jews destroyed the house and I don't want to go back there. I love Amal and Soso."

Joshua Landis has offered further information about Safa Joudeh, the author of the "Gaza Diary" which we featured two days ago. Ms Joudeh has a Facebook page where she is posting her latest experiences and observations. An extract (the full blog is at Landis' website Syria Comment):

The IDF have infiltrated the air waves of local radio stations and TV channels. As we watch the news all of a sudden the screen goes black and an IDF message appears: “You will witness the unleashing of our wrath!!’.

We turn off the TV and turn to the radio, moments later the broadcasting is interrupted and a harsh voice comes through the speakers: “Leave your area and gather in the center of your town! We are warning you for your own safety! This is the IDF”.

Where are people supposed to go? Those in the center of the city such as my family are already being bombarded, and each home is already accommodating at least 1 or 2 families that have fled their areas. UNRWA shelters are already full and the streets aren’t safe. So we are people are being forewarned when in reality, they have no option but to stay put. Many people feel that it would be more merciful not to be warned of the imminent deaths.

The Israeli Invasion of Gaza: Rolling Updates (8 Jan --- Evening)

Photograph: Mohammed Saber/EPA

Earlier Updates on The Israeli Invasion of Gaza (8 January)
Latest Story: Breaking News: Obama Administration “Prepared To Talk to Hamas”?
Latest Story: How the US is Fighting for “Peace” in Gaza: Bunker-Busting Bombs
Latest Article: Gaza: One Man's Tragedy is Another Man's Marketing Opportunity

1:30 a.m. A bit of downtime. We'll be back in the morning, updating on the discussions at the UN Security Council, on the humanitarian situation, and on any military developments.

12:30 a.m. The Guardian of London is reporting the statement of the head of the Arab League that Arab nations have accepted the US-UK-France resolution to be presented to the United Nations Security Council.

11:20 p.m. Gazan photojournalist and peace activist Sameh Habeeb, who has been blogging on his experience of the conflict, reports via Twitter that his area is under heavy Israeli bombardment.



10:50 p.m. Iran makes it position clear: Speaker of the Parliament Ali Larijani, after meetings in Damascus, calls Mubarak-Sarkozy proposal "honey injected with poison"

9:20 p.m. Now here's a twist: part of Israeli information campaigns has been the charge that Hamas has been using human shields in Gaza. This just in from Amnesty International via the BBC:

Israeli troops had forced Palestinian civilians to stay in their homes after taking them over as sniper positions or bases, [Amnesty] said quoting sources in Gaza. "This increases risk to families and means they are effectively being used as human shields."

It should be noted that Amnesty criticised both sides, blaming Hamas for endangering civilians by firing from their homes. Still, the report should make for uncomfortable reading in Tel Aviv, clearly putting an onus for civilian deaths on the Israeli military:

The army is well aware gunmen usually leave the area after having fired and any reprisal attack against these homes will in most cases cause harm to civilians - not gunmen.

9:15 p.m. United Nations Relief and Works Agency says "lack of cooperation" with Israeli is "completely unacceptable" and they have "lost all confidence" in Israeli authorities.

8:35 p.m. CNN is headlining the press conference of Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas and Spanish Prime Minister Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero. Abbas replayed his endorsement of the Mubarak-Sarkozy proposal as "important to reach a cease-fire", a position supported by Zapatero.

Fair enough. But why, at this important time, is Abbas spending a tangential 24 hours in Madrid? He is due to go to Cairo.

7:45 p.m. Reuters and Al Jazeera offer details, from a Western diplomatic source, of the US-UK-France resolution for the United Nations Security Council. It will "include a call for an immediate ceasefire, action to stop smuggling of arms [to Hamas] and open the border crossings". Trying to overtake the Libyan-drafted resolution, US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, British Foreign Secretary David Miliband, and French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner presented the draft resolution to Arab foreign ministers.

7:20 p.m. Unsurprising Development of the Day: US Senate passes non-binding resolution expressing strong support of Israel. The Republican leader in the Senate, Mitch McConnell, explained, "The Israelis...are responding exactly the same way we would."

6:40 p.m. Curious report by CBS News: 10 Damascus-based Palestinian factions, including Hamas, have rejected the Mubarak-Sarkozy proposal, stating that they ""didn't see in the Egyptian initiative any valid basis for any acceptable solution as it includes articles deemed risky for the Palestinian resistance and its future". The aim of the proposal was "to impose restrict on the resistance movement, blockading it while giving the enemy the free hand. The initiative could only help the enemy achieve the results they are unable to attain so far." To my knowledge, this supposed rejection has not been reported in any other American or British media. It is unclear what effect it has on the talks currently underway in Cairo.

6:17 p.m. Barack Obama now delivering a speech calling for urgent action on an economic stimulus plan. Can't help but notice that, when it comes to economy, he has no problem being Presidential but, when it comes to Gaza, he declares that "America cannot have two Presidents at once".

6:15 p.m. The US-Britain-France resolution has been drafted by the British. My suspicion is that the trio have done this to try and forestall formal consideration of the Libyan-drafted resolution, which would undoubtedly have been unacceptable to Israel.

Afternoon update (6 p.m.): Significant shift on diplomatic front? US-Britain-France reported to be working on binding UN resolution for Gaza cease-fire.

Hamas official says organisation is considering cease-fire options. Will agree to proposal if it includes provisions for "end to Israeli aggression" and lifting of economic blockade.

UN aid agency has suspended operations after one of its trucks was hit by Israeli fire. The Gazan death toll is now 763.

Lebanese Prime Minister Fouad Siniora has condemned the firing of rockets into northern Israel and says his Government will strive to find those responsible. Israeli Government believes a group called National Front is behind the rocket launches.

Rolling Updates on the Israeli Invasion of Gaza (7 January)

Later Story: Follow-Up: That State Department Twitter-Diplomacy….Gives the Game Away?
Later Story: Inconvenient (Rocket) Facts: Israel Still Can't Get It Right
Later Story: Rice to UN: US Seeks Regime Change in Gaza
Later Story: Inconvenient (Rocket) Facts: Israel Gets Caught Out by the BBC


12:45 p.m. Relatively quiet on both military and diplomatic fronts --- not expecting much out of any United Nations discussions --- so we're off for some downtime.

Tomorrow should offer some clues on the political direction of the conflict. With Hamas as well as the Palestinian Authority and Israel going to Cairo for negotiations, there may be some indication as to whether Tel Aviv and Washington will accept a settlement that leaves Hamas in control of Gaza or whether they try to isolate the organisation.

Meanwhile, on the military front, we may get some indication --- given the reports of Israeli moblisation around Rafah and warnings to residents --- of whether Tel Aviv is going to take the ground offensive into the cities.

11:30 p.m. Gazan medical sources say 700 Gazans killed in conflict, 219 are children and 89 are women. More than 3000 wounded: 46 percent are women and children.

11:25 p.m. Jabaliya Doubled: The Daily Telegraph of London is reporting the discovery in Zeitoun by a paramedic of between 60 and 70 bodies of the al Samouni clan (initial reports had put the death toll at 13), killed by Israeli shelling.



About 15 members of the clan were injured. Eight were left behind when Israeli troops began firing on ambulances.

So far, Israel has made no claim that there was Hamas members firing mortars from the shelled house.

10:50 p.m. A summary of Hezbollah Secretary General Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah's speech on the Gaza situation --- "The Scheme is to Give West Bank to Jordan, Gaza to Egypt" --- is now posted in English on the Internet.

10:45 p.m. Took a break to post on today's How Not to Spin Information story: the Israeli consulate in New York, trying to prove Hamas was responsible for breaking the cease-fire, actually makes the case that the Gazan organisation was observing it.

8:45 p.m. Apologies --- missed this earlier. Israeli Cabinet postpones votes on expansion of ground offensive

8:40 p.m. Arab fightback? Representatives of Arab League at United Nations reject US-backed initiative for non-binding statement by President of Security Council and urge binding Security Council resolution for immediate cease-fire. Al Jazeera speculates this is because of growing "embarrassment" over Arab passivity in face of Mubarak-Sarkozy process.

8:30 p.m. Israeli military preparing for entry into Rafah in southern Gaza? Reports of leaflets being dropped on residents warning them to evacuate by 8 a.m. Gaza time

8 p.m. On CNN, French Foreign Ministry spokesman tries to reconcile different stories: Israel has welcomed "process" and "approach" of Mubarak-Sarkozy proposal. Tel Aviv is sending senior advisor to Minister of Defense Ehud Barak to Cairo tomorrow.

Spokesman adds that discussions are taking place with Hamas via Egypt and Syria. On the Palestinian Authority-Hamas issue, he talks of "Palestinian reconciliation".

6:15 p.m. Retractions: French President Sarkozy's office acknowledges that Israel has not accepted the Mubarak-Sarkozy proposal while Israeli military says three-hour "respite" --- to take place every other day ---does apply to all of Gaza, not just Gaza City

5:25 p.m. Important development: Ahmed Youssef, political advisor to Hamas leader Ismail Haniya, tells Al Jazeera there are "good elements" in Mubarak-Sarkozy proposal and hopes for clarification of provisions in next 48 hours. Youssef adds that he hopes negotiation of Mubarak-Sarkozy will be in conjunction with movement in United Nations towards a resolution.

Youssef says the "by-product" of rockets will end when the Israeli occupation is terminated, indicating Hamas will not accept a cease-fire which does not mention Tel Aviv's aggression: "As long as the occupation is there, we have to defend ourselves....When we have full control of our destiny....there will be no firing of rockets."

5:20 p.m. Thomas Friedman carries the media flag for Israel. His latest column in The New York Times, "The Mideast's Ground Zero", is being distributed via Twitter by the Israeli Consulate in New York. And no wonder, six years after Friedman marched into war with Iraq, he's still got an Axis of Evil to grind:

No doubt, Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran are hoping that they can use the Gaza conflict to turn Obama into Bush. They know Barack Hussein Obama must be (am)Bushed — to keep America and its Arab allies on the defensive. Obama has to keep his eye on the prize. His goal — America’s goal — has to be a settlement in Gaza that eliminates the threat of Hamas rockets and opens Gaza economically to the world, under credible international supervision.

5:15 p.m. Confusion over the Mubarak-Sarkozy proposal and possible embarrassment for the French President. France had announced Israel's acceptance of the limited cease-fire, but Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert says that proposal is still being studied.

5 p.m. Two hours into the three-hour respite but Al Jazeera says there are reports of fresh fighting in Gaza City. Seven Israeli airstrikes, mainly in northeast Gaza.

The respite has allowed paramedics to get to some areas of Gaza for first time.

4:20 p.m. Israel "clarifies" the three-hour respite: says it applies only to Gaza City

3:45 p.m. A break from Gaza coverage to more important issues: CNN International is running an in-depth investigation of Oprah Winfrey's weight

3:20 p.m. Osama Hamdan of Hamas says organisation is considering Mubarak-Sarkozy proposal along with "other initiatives",  maintains cautious line --- "If we criticise Egypt, it does not mean we cannot discuss with Egypt"

3:12 p.m. Hamas officials say they are considering the Mubarak-Sarkozy proposal.

3:10 p.m. French officials say both Israel and Palestinian Authority have accepted the Mubarak-Sarkozy proposal for a limited cease-fire and talks in Cairo.

3:05 p.m. Respite, after firing from both sides in opening minutes, reported to be "generally holding". At least 683 Gazans killed since start of conflict.

2:20 p.m. Report of "tens of thousands" of mourners at funerals of the victims of Jabaliya school/shelter bombing.

UN officials "99.9 percent certain" that there were no militants in the shelter.

2:00 p.m. An  hour after the "respite" began, shelling resumes north of Gaza City, although more civilians are on the streets in the centre of the city. Machine gun fire near Beit Lahoun.

1:35 p.m. Israeli Defense Forces say they have suspended operations for three hours. Hamas says it will match this by suspending firing of rockets.

1:10 p.m. Israeli airstrikes kill four people outside a  mosque in Gaza City and two people in the Zeitoun district. Explosions reported in Jabaliya and Beit Lahiya.



12:55 p.m. London-based Arabic-language newspaper al-Quds al-Arabi reports that officers of US Army Engineering Corps have been stationed at Rafah to unearth smugglers' tunnels --- unclear whether they are now on Egyptian or Gazan side or border

12:45 p.m. Israel seizes the media initiative, at least with CNN: its headline story is of Tel Aviv's offer of a "short respite" with the three-hour pause in bombing each day, while the Jabiliya deaths are at the foot of the story (and noted with "The Israeli military said Hamas militants were firing mortars from the school").

11:55 a.m. No humanitarian bombing pause yet: Al Jazeera reports heavy Israeli bombing around city of Rafah on Egypt-Gaza border.

11:34 a.m. Dan Gillerman, the former Israeli Ambassador to the UN and the coordinator of Israel's information operations, tells Al Jazeera that the deaths in the Jabaliya bombing are "horrible tragedy" but whereas each death is "a cause for sadness" for Israel, each is "a cause for celebration" for Hamas.

Gillerman refuses to address the question of whether Israel violated international law with the shelling of the school/shelter. John Ging, United Nations Relief and Works Agency official, repeats that the GPS coordinates of the school/shelter were given to Israeli forces, and calls for a "full investigation".

11:10 a.m. Israeli Cabinet currently discussing military operations, including possible expansion of ground offensive with mobilisation of tens of thousands of reservists. Israeli forces reported to be in "holding pattern" around Gazan cities.

11 a.m. Israel announces, for the "humanitarian corridor", that it will halt military attacks for three hours each day. Al Jazeera reports Gazan reaction: "What about the other 21 hours a day?"

10:20 a.m. I have known and learned for 20 years from Professor Avi Shlaim, one of Britain's foremost historians on the Middle East. In today's Guardian of London, he has an opinion piece, "How Israel Brought Gaza to the Brink of Humanitarian Catastrophe", offering the historical context to the current crisis:

This brief review of Israel's record over the past four decades makes it difficult to resist the conclusion that it has become a rogue state with "an utterly unscrupulous set of leaders". A rogue state habitually violates international law, possesses weapons of mass destruction and practises terrorism - the use of violence against civilians for political purposes. Israel fulfils all of these three criteria; the cap fits and it must wear it. Israel's real aim is not peaceful coexistence with its Palestinian neighbours but military domination.

9:40 a.m. The United Nations Humanitarian Coordinator has released a situation report, current to 6 p.m. on 6 January, detailing casualties and damages from Israeli bombing and shelling. It also sets out the status of medical services and shelter and the provision of food, fuel, water, and electricity.

9:15 a.m. Ayman al-Zawahiri, the deputy chief of Al Qa'eda, issued a statement calling the Gaza conflict a "gift" from President-elect Barack Obama with "that traitor" Hosni Mubarak as the main partner.

Frankly, I consider this a sign of the relative weakness and peripheral place of Al Qa'eda, except to a small group of core activists, not only in Gaza but in international affairs. Far more important, as Juan Cole has noted, is the impact upon local "insurgents" in places such as Afghanistan, as they use the wider policies of countries like the US to mobilise their supporters.

9:05 a.m. Other success of Mubarak-Sarkozy proposal is pushing the specific incident of the shelling of Jabaliya school/shelter, which killed at least 43 and wounded at least 100 Gazans, and the general humanitarian issue to the background. Al Jazeera is leading with the Jabiliya killings but other news services have put it in the background.

The Israeli proposal for a "humanitarian corridor" appears to be a public-relations success, at least for the moment. And, contrary to my opinion yesterday, it seems that Jabaliya will not be the successor to Qana (Lebanon) 2006, when dozens of civilian deaths in a single incident helped force an end to military operations.

Jabaliya was one of three schools/shelters struck yesterday. More than 660 Gazans have now died.

9 a.m. Lead development is the Mubarak-Sarkozy proposal for immediate cease-fire and meetings in Cairo between Israel and Palestinian "factions"

There is still lack of clarity on proposals such as arrangements for border security and when and to what extent blockade would be lifted. Perhaps most important, no confirmation on whether Hamas would be invited to negotiations. In fact, there is not even agreement on the cease-fire. United States is still holding out against any cessation of military operations.

However, immediate "success" of the proposal is to block any UN resolution on the crisis. Initiative is now clearly with France, Egypt as the Arab "leader", and --- behind them --- the US and European countries. If Israel and the Palestinian Authority play their parts,, then this could be an ambitious move for a "grand design" on Gaza. This would include isolating and possibly overthrowing Hamas.

Rolling Updates on the Invasion of Gaza (6 January)

Later Updates on the Israeli Invasion of Gaza (7 January)
Later post: International Crisis Group on "Ending the War in Gaza"
Later post: The Israel-Fatah Collaboration

5:15 p.m. Medical sources say up to 40 Gazans die from Israeli tank shelling of UN school in Jabaliya refugee camp.

4:25 p.m. US State Department says Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice going to United Nations "to help create a ceasefire" in Gaza



4:20 p.m. Further to the news of 13 members of a family dying in an Israeli air attack (3:45 p.m.), The New York Times has a detailed profile:

The Samouni family knew they were in danger. They had been calling the Red Cross for two days, they said, begging to be taken out of Zeitoun, a poor area in eastern Gaza City that is considered a stronghold of Hamas.

No rescuers came. Instead, Israeli soldiers entered their building late Sunday night and told them to evacuate to another building. They did. But at 6 a.m. on Monday, when a missile fired by an Israeli warplane struck the relatives’ house in which they had taken shelter, there was nowhere to run.

4:05 p.m. Diplomatic development: French President Nicolas Sarkozy in Damascus has urged Syrian President Bashir al-Assad "to throw all his weight to convince everyone to return to reason". Sarkozy said any ceasefire had to provide "serious guarantees" for the security of Israel and a halt of rocket fire by Hamas.

No rescuers came. Instead, Israeli soldiers entered their building late Sunday night and told them to evacuate to another building. They did. But at 6 a.m. on Monday, when a missile fired by an Israeli warplane struck the relatives’ house in which they had taken shelter, there was nowhere to run.

It seems, however, that Assad has rebuffed Sarkozy's gambit --- which parallels Tony Blair's media blitz today --- to put all the conditions for a cease-fire on Hamas. He responded that Israel had to agree to ease economic restrictions on Gaza: "The blockade is slow death. There will not be a ceasefire that holds if the blockade is not lifted." Assad also called for a cessation of Israeli "war crimes".

Immediate analysis? No breakthrough here --- this is increasingly looking like two rival diplomatic camps.

3:45 p.m. Al Jazeera reports 13 members of a single family killed in al Zaitoun, east of Gaza City, in air attack

3:35 p.m.  Further evidence of the "grand design", backed by US, Israel, and Egypt, of military and political action to topple Hamas and bring in the Palestinian Authority? The BBC's Jeremy Bowen has just assessed that European representatives will sit on their hands for now over a possible cease-fire. It's also notable that the French, who only 24 hours were supposed to be pushing a UN resolution, have gone very quiet.

Bowen adds the question, in line with our own post, of who will be able to succeed Hamas. Will it be anarchy and a Somalia-type situation?

2:55 p.m. Just posted what I think may be the critical background story of this week --- Israel-Fatah Collaboration in plan to install Palestinian Authority in power in Gaza

2 p.m. Former British Prime Minister and the envoy of the Middle Eastern Quarter, Tony Blair, confirms his clinging to relevancy with an interview with CNN's Christiane Amanpour. He lays out the condition for a cease-fire:

If...Israel feels it has achieved something -- namely the end of the smuggling of weapons and finance to Hamas -- then I think it is possible to resolve this reasonably quickly.

In other words, before any cease-fire is possible, Hamas has to make concessions. In far, it's more than that: countries accused of smuggling weapons and finance to Hamas, namely Iran and Syria, have to give assurances.

The proposal is a non-starter. And I doubt that Blair --- who met with Israel's Ehud Olmert and Ehud Barak on Sunday --- has any credibility left as an "impartial" broker of a temporary, let alone long-term, settlement.



1 p.m. Israeli officer reported killed in fighting in northern Gaza.

12:40 p.m. United Nations Relief and Works Agency official John Ging confirms that three people killed in UN school/shelter by Israeli missile. Speaking to Al Jazeera, Ging also describes "awful" situation at al-Shifa hospital.

12:05 p.m. Missing news: meeting French President Nicolas Sarkozy yesterday, Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert said: ""The results of the operation must be... that Hamas must not only stop firing but must no longer be able to fire."

But, given earlier French efforts to get a cease-fire and reported French attempts to get a UN resolution, what was Sarkozy's position/reaction? There is no evidence in the story by Agence France Presse, only the note that Olmert and he agreed that Sarkovy "would continue to push for a deal including Egypt".

12 noon: Israeli Defense Forces say more than 10 Hamas rockets have been launched on Tuesday. One landed in Gadera, 36 kilometres (23 miles) north of the Gaza border --- the further a rocket has flown into Israel.

11:55 a.m. Al Jazeera is reporting heavy Israeli air attacks, including strikes on a school (and now probably a shelter) run by the United Nations, killing at least three people, and a central market in Bureij, south of Gaza City. Israeli Defense Forces say there have been more than 40 airstrikes since midnight.

There are also reports of Israel violating Lebanese airspace.

10:25 a.m. Heavy fighting in Khan Yunis in southern Gaza and resistance to Israeli naval landing at Deir al-Balah.

10:20 a.m. Former British Prime Minister and current "Middle Eastern envoy" Tony Blair clings to relevance with 10-minute interview on BBC radio's Today programme. He frames situation as "good" Palestinian Authority v. "bad" Hamas and holds out against dialogue with the latter.

10 a.m. One day it might be called the "el-Haddad effect", and it might be seen as a major reason why the Israelis halt military operations before they achieve their objectives.

Moussa el-Haddad, the Gazan resident who came to international notice via his daughter Laila, a writer and blogger prominent on Twitter as "Gazamom", is now being featured regularly on CNN. He is also now the lead voice on the BBC's flagship radio programme Today. His eyewitness emphasis is on the destruction and humanitarian cost of the Israeli attack, overtaking the standard wartime narrative of Israeli forces v. Hamas forces.

Ironically, as Robert Fisk noted in The Independent yesterday, the Israeli exclusion of journalists from Gaza means that news services are scrambling to find an "authentic" account of events.  That in turn means they have moved to other means, such as Internet-based activity, for information and analysis. (The Guardian of London, which featured bloggers during the 2003 Iraq War, got a jump on other print outlets with its featuring of "local" stories, and broadcast media are now playing catch-up.)

As long as Moussa el-Haddad's phone and Internet service holds out, he may be an influence putting Israeli political and military forces may be in a race against time.

9:27 a.m. CNN is now summarising the Israeli and Hamas casualties we reported below.

There is an intriguing twist in the article, however:

Israel also stepped up its psychological campaign Monday, trying to turn Gazans against Hamas.

"Urgent message, warning to the citizens of Gaza," said a recorded phone call to Gaza resident Moussa El-Hadad. "Hamas is using you as human shields. Do not listen to them. Hamas has abandoned you and are hiding in their shelters."

The Israeli military also dropped leaflets into the streets of Gaza warning residents that the IDF will continue using "full force against Hamas."

The summary of a "psychological campaign", while not as strong as "political warfare", is a far different characterisation of the Israeli tactics than the earlier portrayal --- encouraged by Tel Aviv --- of the phone calls as concern for the civilian population.

9:10 a.m. The humanitarian-first approach to the conflict makes it to the top level of "mainstream" US news coverage. Mads Gilbert, one of the two Norwegian doctors setting out the scale of crisis at Gazan hospitals and the large number of civilian casualties, is given almost three minutes on CBS. His portrayal of events? "They are bombing one-and-a-half million people in a cage."

The clip is now circulating on YouTube.

9:00 a.m. Al Jazeera reports 18 Gazans killed overnight.

8:50 a.m. The International Crisis Group has released a briefing, "Ending the War in Gaza". We're reprinting in full as a separate item. The ICG concludes:

Sustainable calm can be achieved neither by ignoring Hamas and its constituents nor by harbouring the illusion that, pummelled into submission, it will accept what it heretofore has rejected. Palestinian reconciliation is a priority, more urgent but also harder than ever before; so, too, is the Islamists’ acceptance of basic international obligations. In the meantime, Hamas – if Israel does not take the perilous step of toppling it – will have to play a political and security role in Gaza and at the crossings. This might mean a “victory” for Hamas, but that is the inevitable cost for a wrongheaded embargo, and by helping end rocket fire and producing a more stable border regime, it would just as importantly be a victory for Israel – and, crucially, both peoples – as well.

8:35 a.m. Israeli Defense Forces claim 135 Hamas fighters killed.

8:20 a.m. In another sign of shifting media emphasis towards humanitarian issues, CNN website leads with story on psychological damage caused to Gazan children by the conflict, albeit with an emphasis on the creation of "extremists". (This was superseded an hour later by latest reports on military clashes.)

8:15 a.m. Israeli troops have surrounded Gaza City. Al Jazeera reports that Israeli forces have moved into Khan Yunis in southern Gazan strip

Three Israeli soldiers were killed and 24 wounded --- four severely --- in a "friendly fire" incident. Another eight soldiers were lightly wounded in fights with Hamas forces.

Forty rockets were launched into southern Israel on Monday, slightly down from 47 on Sunday.

Treatment of wounded in hospitals has been further hindered by Egyptian refusal to let medical personnel across its border into Gaza.