The Israeli Invasion of Gaza: Rolling Updates (11 January)

Latest Post: Reading Israeli Intentions
Latest post: Israel's Other War: US Rejected Aid for Attack on Iran
Latest post: “Alive in Gaza” Now On-Line

1:02 a.m. As we get some downtime, it looks like Israeli action is hovering between a show of force before stopping in place, declaring "victory", and pressing ahead into the cities. I still think the decision will hinge on what Tel Aviv gets out of its bilateral talks with Egypt tomorrow --- an Egyptian commitment to patrol the borders and possibly southern Gaza is enough to satisfy Israel that it has achieved some of its objective, an Egyptian rejection is likely to spur Tel Aviv to a more aggressive display of force.

1 a.m. Talks in Cairo today (unsurprisingly) "inconclusive".

Israeli navy has fired about 25 shells into Gaza City in last hour. Aerial bombardment continues. Gazan death toll now 890

12:25 a.m. Now here's a story I haven't seen anyone report. From an Israeli human rights website:

In a hearing on two court petitions submitted by human rights groups in Israel, the High Court [on Friday] ordered the state to explain the delay in permitting evacuation of wounded persons in Gaza and the reason for barring electricity supply for Gaza's crumbling infrastructure.

The Government has been given until Tuesday to provide the explanation.

12 midnight: We've posted a separate special analysis pausing and reflecting on Israel's next move.



9:55 p.m. Al Jazeera offers clarification on the Israeli reservist story:

"I can confirm that a few reserve units have entered Gaza to participate in the operation," [said] major Avital Leibovich, an Israeli military spokeswoman. "We are not talking about a massive amount of forces, rather a limited one to join in the fighting."

Al Jazeera's interpretation, which I think is correct, is that Israel is covering all bases with this move.

9:25 p.m. At least 17 rockets hit southern Israel on Sunday.

9 p.m. Some confusion over the report of Israeli reservists going into #Gaza --- apparently Israeli military spokeswoman Major Amital Liebovich is now saying it is only a response to a "flare-up". No major television network running the story.

8:25 p.m. Beyond Gaza: we've posted an analysis of Barack Obama's apparent shift from immediate closure of Guantanamo Bay detention camp.

8:22 p.m. Israeli chief military spokesman says some units of reservists ordered into Gaza Strip; thousands awaiting orders to move.

8:20 p.m. "Gazamom" reports two Israeli F-16s drop bombs on Gazan Ministry of Education.

8:13 p.m. Breaking ranks? Publicly, at least: King Abdullah of Jordan has distanced himself from the US-Israel position and the Mubarak-Sarkozy process, arguing for world to "force" Israel to observe the United Nations cease-fire resolution.

6:50 p.m. Israeli Government needs to get its story straight. It has briefed media all day that Hamas was a broken force, with fighting fleeing. However, the head of Israeli military intelligence, Major General Amos Yadlin told the Israeli Cabinet that, while "there were cracks in Hamas resilience", the organisation "was not about to succumb, and was still capable of striking Israel and the Israeli Defense Force".

Even worse for Israeli "information", someone passed Yadlin's briefing to The Jerusalem Post. So the illusion of an overwhelming Israeli victory, for the moment, has been suspended.

6:30 p.m. Still no word on any change in Israeli policy.

Rockets still landing in southern Israel, the latest in Ashdod.

5:30 p.m. Al Jazeera: Doctors in Gaza say "people have been admitted suffering burns consistent with the use of...white phosphorus". A resident in Jabaliya reports, "It's suffocating and has a deadly poisonous smell that I am sure will cause a lot of sickness and disease on all of the civilians here."

5:25 p.m. Israel claims its troops came under fire from Syrian forces in the Golan Heights.

4:35 p.m. Following up on the Zeitoun mass killing: if you haven't seen it, the reportage by Taghreed El-Khodary and Isabel Kershner in yesterday's New York Times is a stunning exposure of the atrocity that took place last week, killing about 30 members of the al-Samouni clan and dozens of others in the vicinity:

“I could feel the blood dripping inside my head,” Ahmed said, recalling the days he lay wounded in the bombed-out building. “My father was crawling — he couldn’t move his legs,” he said. His cousin Abdallah, 10, was trying to stand up but kept falling down; his brother Yaqoub, 12, kept removing large pieces of shrapnel from his own stomach; and his sister Amal, 9, was not moving at all. Another brother, Ishaq, 12, was wounded in the legs. He bled for two days before he died.

No wonder that this has "horrified many" since the Red Cross, four days after the Israeli shelling, finally got to the dead and wounded. And no wonder that at least one UN official was moved by this to call for a war crimes investigation.

The reaction of the Israeli military spokeswoman: the army had “no intention of harming civilians".

4:30 p.m. Return from a break to find a quiet period in coverage. No news from Cairo of any "diplomatic efforts" and no significant report of military activity.

2:25 p.m. Israel's next step? CNN finally has a summary recapping what we have updated all morning.

2:20 p.m. From the live feed in Gaza City: "Apaches launching hellfires above Gaza city in support of infantry engagement on the ground. Extremely heavy artillery fire also visible. Israeli drones are also overhead, some low enough to be seen on live feed."

1:50 p.m. Heavy fighting in Jabaliya despite supposed "respite".

1:30 p.m. This from a colleague on Twitter as he watches the live feed from Gaza City: "Watching new strikes in Gaza. BBC reports fighting in the 'outskirts'. 4,000 people per square kilometer, WTF does 'outskirts' mean?"

1:10 p.m. Three rockets land in southern Israel in last hour.

1 p.m. Explosions continue outside Gaza Strip as uncertainty persists over Israel's next move. However, military operations will persist at least until Israel Defense Ministry representative holds talks in Cairo, either today or tomorrow.

12:30 p.m. Something's up but I can't quite figure it out. Israeli media and networks are spreading the story that Hamas has taken heavy losses and, in some cases, "thrown in the towel" and fleeing. This seems to be a set-up for two diverse alternatives: declaring "victory" and limiting operations or, conversely, escalating with push into cities.

Meanwhile, the "respite" hasn't stopped Israeli artillery attacks.

12 noon: A bit of a lull, possibly because of Israeli concerns over further operations, indecision, or even a diplomatic resolution that we don't know about (see earlier post on the scheme to get strengthened Egyptian presence in Gaza). Israeli tanks are reportedly pulling back a bit toward Netzarim, and Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert says before Cabinet meeting, "Israel may be close to achieving its goals."

Today's three- hour "respite" has started. Still, the humanitarian crisis is worsening. Gazan death toll is now 875

10:35 a.m. An interesting post in The Jerusalem Post that "the Israeli Defense Force will likely expand its operations". Plan is being supported by psychological warfare, including assertions of more than 300 Hamas fighters killed and "entire battalions wiped out".

The twist is that the reason given is "to press Egypt to declare its readiness to stop the weapons smuggling from the Sinai Peninsula into Gaza". That indicates Israel is seeking an expanded Egyptian military presence on the Egypt-Gaza border and possibly in southern Gaza. Israeli Defense Ministry official Amos Gilad, is travelling to Cairo on Monday for discussions.

Morning update (10:15 a.m. Israel/Gaza time): The ground offensive is turning out not to be a dramatic charge but a gradual, step-by-step advance to the edge of cities. Israeli forces and Hamas fighters clashed north and east of Gaza City overnight.

In southern Gaza near Khan Yunis, one civilian was killed and 49 severely burned when Israeli shelling set several building on fire, including a United Nations school. In Jabaliya, nine members of the same family were killed by an Israeli shell.

Demonstrations took place throughout Europe on Saturday. The largest was in London, while others protested in Newcastle, Edinburgh, Milan, Innsbruck, Paris, Berlin, and Oslo. At least 3000 demonstrators gathered in Lafayette Park outside the White House in Washington.

More than 850 Gazans have been killed since the start of the conflict 15 days ago. Twenty rockets were fired into southern Israel on Saturday, injuring four Israelis.

Rolling Updates on the Invasion of Gaza (6 January)

Later Updates on the Israeli Invasion of Gaza (7 January)
Later post: International Crisis Group on "Ending the War in Gaza"
Later post: The Israel-Fatah Collaboration

5:15 p.m. Medical sources say up to 40 Gazans die from Israeli tank shelling of UN school in Jabaliya refugee camp.

4:25 p.m. US State Department says Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice going to United Nations "to help create a ceasefire" in Gaza



4:20 p.m. Further to the news of 13 members of a family dying in an Israeli air attack (3:45 p.m.), The New York Times has a detailed profile:

The Samouni family knew they were in danger. They had been calling the Red Cross for two days, they said, begging to be taken out of Zeitoun, a poor area in eastern Gaza City that is considered a stronghold of Hamas.

No rescuers came. Instead, Israeli soldiers entered their building late Sunday night and told them to evacuate to another building. They did. But at 6 a.m. on Monday, when a missile fired by an Israeli warplane struck the relatives’ house in which they had taken shelter, there was nowhere to run.

4:05 p.m. Diplomatic development: French President Nicolas Sarkozy in Damascus has urged Syrian President Bashir al-Assad "to throw all his weight to convince everyone to return to reason". Sarkozy said any ceasefire had to provide "serious guarantees" for the security of Israel and a halt of rocket fire by Hamas.

No rescuers came. Instead, Israeli soldiers entered their building late Sunday night and told them to evacuate to another building. They did. But at 6 a.m. on Monday, when a missile fired by an Israeli warplane struck the relatives’ house in which they had taken shelter, there was nowhere to run.

It seems, however, that Assad has rebuffed Sarkozy's gambit --- which parallels Tony Blair's media blitz today --- to put all the conditions for a cease-fire on Hamas. He responded that Israel had to agree to ease economic restrictions on Gaza: "The blockade is slow death. There will not be a ceasefire that holds if the blockade is not lifted." Assad also called for a cessation of Israeli "war crimes".

Immediate analysis? No breakthrough here --- this is increasingly looking like two rival diplomatic camps.

3:45 p.m. Al Jazeera reports 13 members of a single family killed in al Zaitoun, east of Gaza City, in air attack

3:35 p.m.  Further evidence of the "grand design", backed by US, Israel, and Egypt, of military and political action to topple Hamas and bring in the Palestinian Authority? The BBC's Jeremy Bowen has just assessed that European representatives will sit on their hands for now over a possible cease-fire. It's also notable that the French, who only 24 hours were supposed to be pushing a UN resolution, have gone very quiet.

Bowen adds the question, in line with our own post, of who will be able to succeed Hamas. Will it be anarchy and a Somalia-type situation?

2:55 p.m. Just posted what I think may be the critical background story of this week --- Israel-Fatah Collaboration in plan to install Palestinian Authority in power in Gaza

2 p.m. Former British Prime Minister and the envoy of the Middle Eastern Quarter, Tony Blair, confirms his clinging to relevancy with an interview with CNN's Christiane Amanpour. He lays out the condition for a cease-fire:

If...Israel feels it has achieved something -- namely the end of the smuggling of weapons and finance to Hamas -- then I think it is possible to resolve this reasonably quickly.

In other words, before any cease-fire is possible, Hamas has to make concessions. In far, it's more than that: countries accused of smuggling weapons and finance to Hamas, namely Iran and Syria, have to give assurances.

The proposal is a non-starter. And I doubt that Blair --- who met with Israel's Ehud Olmert and Ehud Barak on Sunday --- has any credibility left as an "impartial" broker of a temporary, let alone long-term, settlement.



1 p.m. Israeli officer reported killed in fighting in northern Gaza.

12:40 p.m. United Nations Relief and Works Agency official John Ging confirms that three people killed in UN school/shelter by Israeli missile. Speaking to Al Jazeera, Ging also describes "awful" situation at al-Shifa hospital.

12:05 p.m. Missing news: meeting French President Nicolas Sarkozy yesterday, Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert said: ""The results of the operation must be... that Hamas must not only stop firing but must no longer be able to fire."

But, given earlier French efforts to get a cease-fire and reported French attempts to get a UN resolution, what was Sarkozy's position/reaction? There is no evidence in the story by Agence France Presse, only the note that Olmert and he agreed that Sarkovy "would continue to push for a deal including Egypt".

12 noon: Israeli Defense Forces say more than 10 Hamas rockets have been launched on Tuesday. One landed in Gadera, 36 kilometres (23 miles) north of the Gaza border --- the further a rocket has flown into Israel.

11:55 a.m. Al Jazeera is reporting heavy Israeli air attacks, including strikes on a school (and now probably a shelter) run by the United Nations, killing at least three people, and a central market in Bureij, south of Gaza City. Israeli Defense Forces say there have been more than 40 airstrikes since midnight.

There are also reports of Israel violating Lebanese airspace.

10:25 a.m. Heavy fighting in Khan Yunis in southern Gaza and resistance to Israeli naval landing at Deir al-Balah.

10:20 a.m. Former British Prime Minister and current "Middle Eastern envoy" Tony Blair clings to relevance with 10-minute interview on BBC radio's Today programme. He frames situation as "good" Palestinian Authority v. "bad" Hamas and holds out against dialogue with the latter.

10 a.m. One day it might be called the "el-Haddad effect", and it might be seen as a major reason why the Israelis halt military operations before they achieve their objectives.

Moussa el-Haddad, the Gazan resident who came to international notice via his daughter Laila, a writer and blogger prominent on Twitter as "Gazamom", is now being featured regularly on CNN. He is also now the lead voice on the BBC's flagship radio programme Today. His eyewitness emphasis is on the destruction and humanitarian cost of the Israeli attack, overtaking the standard wartime narrative of Israeli forces v. Hamas forces.

Ironically, as Robert Fisk noted in The Independent yesterday, the Israeli exclusion of journalists from Gaza means that news services are scrambling to find an "authentic" account of events.  That in turn means they have moved to other means, such as Internet-based activity, for information and analysis. (The Guardian of London, which featured bloggers during the 2003 Iraq War, got a jump on other print outlets with its featuring of "local" stories, and broadcast media are now playing catch-up.)

As long as Moussa el-Haddad's phone and Internet service holds out, he may be an influence putting Israeli political and military forces may be in a race against time.

9:27 a.m. CNN is now summarising the Israeli and Hamas casualties we reported below.

There is an intriguing twist in the article, however:

Israel also stepped up its psychological campaign Monday, trying to turn Gazans against Hamas.

"Urgent message, warning to the citizens of Gaza," said a recorded phone call to Gaza resident Moussa El-Hadad. "Hamas is using you as human shields. Do not listen to them. Hamas has abandoned you and are hiding in their shelters."

The Israeli military also dropped leaflets into the streets of Gaza warning residents that the IDF will continue using "full force against Hamas."

The summary of a "psychological campaign", while not as strong as "political warfare", is a far different characterisation of the Israeli tactics than the earlier portrayal --- encouraged by Tel Aviv --- of the phone calls as concern for the civilian population.

9:10 a.m. The humanitarian-first approach to the conflict makes it to the top level of "mainstream" US news coverage. Mads Gilbert, one of the two Norwegian doctors setting out the scale of crisis at Gazan hospitals and the large number of civilian casualties, is given almost three minutes on CBS. His portrayal of events? "They are bombing one-and-a-half million people in a cage."

The clip is now circulating on YouTube.

9:00 a.m. Al Jazeera reports 18 Gazans killed overnight.

8:50 a.m. The International Crisis Group has released a briefing, "Ending the War in Gaza". We're reprinting in full as a separate item. The ICG concludes:

Sustainable calm can be achieved neither by ignoring Hamas and its constituents nor by harbouring the illusion that, pummelled into submission, it will accept what it heretofore has rejected. Palestinian reconciliation is a priority, more urgent but also harder than ever before; so, too, is the Islamists’ acceptance of basic international obligations. In the meantime, Hamas – if Israel does not take the perilous step of toppling it – will have to play a political and security role in Gaza and at the crossings. This might mean a “victory” for Hamas, but that is the inevitable cost for a wrongheaded embargo, and by helping end rocket fire and producing a more stable border regime, it would just as importantly be a victory for Israel – and, crucially, both peoples – as well.

8:35 a.m. Israeli Defense Forces claim 135 Hamas fighters killed.

8:20 a.m. In another sign of shifting media emphasis towards humanitarian issues, CNN website leads with story on psychological damage caused to Gazan children by the conflict, albeit with an emphasis on the creation of "extremists". (This was superseded an hour later by latest reports on military clashes.)

8:15 a.m. Israeli troops have surrounded Gaza City. Al Jazeera reports that Israeli forces have moved into Khan Yunis in southern Gazan strip

Three Israeli soldiers were killed and 24 wounded --- four severely --- in a "friendly fire" incident. Another eight soldiers were lightly wounded in fights with Hamas forces.

Forty rockets were launched into southern Israel on Monday, slightly down from 47 on Sunday.

Treatment of wounded in hospitals has been further hindered by Egyptian refusal to let medical personnel across its border into Gaza.