Sunday
Jan102010
The Latest from Iran (10 January): "Middle" Ground?
Sunday, January 10, 2010 at 9:43 
1950 GMT: An American Strategy? I really don't understand what the Obama Administration is playing at. At the same time as Administration officials are putting out the story that the US is moving to a "sanctions for rights" approach (see separate analysis), the top US military commanders are going on rhetorical red alert and talking about confrontation.First there was the preview of General David Petraeus' remarks (see 0745 GMT). Now the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Admiral Mike Mullen, is declaring that while the US is following a diplomatic path with Iran, military options cannot be ruled out. Mullen is also saying that he is convinced Iran is pursuing the military nuclear programme.
That might mean the US gun is loaded, but then Mullen says, "An attack by us or anybody else would be destabilising," and he assures that US officials have noted the "legitimate concern" that the Iranian opposition would have to support the regime in the event of a US assault.
I'm sorry, but I'm far too tired to make sense of this. Watch the video and see what you can do.
1935 GMT: Report Is Not Enough. The reformist Imam Khomeini Line party has declared that the Parliament report on detainee abuses is a positive step but is incomplete, failing to consider a number of allegations against officials and security forces. The party cites the attacks on University dormitories and the death of the Kahrizak doctor, Ramin Pourandarjan, as cases that should have been cited.
1930 GMT: Tehran Prosecutor General Abbas Jafari Doulatabadi announced that a Syrian journalist working for Dubai TV, arrested on Ashura (27 December), was released Sunday. Doulatabi also said a Swedish diplomat was detained on Ashura and later freed.
NEW Latest Iran Video: Military Commander Mullen on US Options (10 January)
NEW Iran Special Analysis: A US Move to “Sanctions for Rights”?
NEW Iran: Challenge to The Government in “The Heartlands”?
The Latest from Iran (9 January): Watching Carefully
1920 GMT: Larijani Playing the Hard Man. Ali Larijani, the Speaker of Parliament, may have played supporting act to President Ahmadinejad's speech today, but he still took the opportunity to talk tough: "Opposition figures have to distance themselves from rioters in an attempt to correct their political records."
1720 GMT: Rafsanjani's Silence. The Los Angeles Times has picked up on the interview of Hashemi Rafsanjani's brother, Mohammad Hashemi (see 0730 GMT), explaining that the former President has been silent "because no one listens to him":
In the early days of the revolution the opposition based in abroad, monarchists, and his foes abroad stormed him with their verbal attacks. Now, unfortunately some people within the system make slanders against him and some media without paying attention to the remarks of [the Supreme Leader] keep on libeling him.
That's the positive way of being the situation: Rafsanjani is choosing to lie low, awaiting his chance to arise. The negative way of framing it might be that Rafsanjani has been pressured into submission.
1625 GMT: Ahmadinejad Targeted? You may have noticed a theme in our LiveBlog --- the growing conservative/principlist challenge to the President.
I held off on noting this video fully until an EA correspondent could confirm the reading, but in this clip, member of Parliament Ali Motahhari declares that Ahmadinejad has to be considered as one of the sources of trouble as well as Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi.
1535 GMT: Iran's Hot New Television Series. It's called "Confessions of Ashura" --- whether it's a documentary or fictional drama is likely to be in the eye of the beholder.
1515 GMT: And Another University Demonstration (see 1100 GMT). About 800 students gathered at Shahid Behesti University yesterday to protest attacks on the campus and detentions of their classmates.
1505 GMT: Diplomatic Protests. A former Iranian diplomat has claimed that five current foreign service officers, serving in four Iranian embassies in European countries, have applied for asylum.
1430 GMT: Mediawatch. Reuters is featuring the story of the Parliament report on detainees, especially the abuses at Kahrizak prison:
More than 145 people detained after Iran's disputed June election were kept for several days in a room of 70 square metres at a Tehran jail, including three who died, a parliamentary report was quoted as saying on Sunday....
It rejected the initial claim by officials, including then Tehran chief prosecutor Saeed Mortazavi, that the three deaths were caused by meningitis...."Their deaths are attributed to various issues such as limitation of space, poor sanitary conditions, inappropriate nutrition, heat, lack of ventilation and ... also as a result of physical attacks."
1400 GMT: Update --- Arrests of the Mothers of Mourning.
The 30 arrested Mothers of Mourning and supporters, arrested at Laleh Park yesterday, were taken by bus this afternoon to Revolutionary Court, passing more than 70 other mourning mothers and supporters had gathered since 8:30 a.m. outside Vozara detention centre. Those inside the bus showed Victory signs, while supporters followed in cars.
Those amongst the arrested include Mansoureh Behkish, Dr. Laila Sayfollahi, and sisters Hakimeh and Sedigheh Shokri. One of the detained, a 75-year-old grandmother, has reportedly been taken to hospital.
1345 GMT: Ahmadinejad v. Parliament --- The Economic Front. President Ahmadinejad has addressed the Parliament to submit the draft of the Five-Year Development Plan to the Parliament. The plan sets the guidelines for the development of infrastructure, covering not only only the economy but also social, political, cultural, defense, and security areas.
No real clue in Ahmadinejad's rhetoric to either his political strategy or Parliament's reaction: "The draft is totally objective, enjoys an internal coherence, is compatible with the current situation of the country and is developed in a transparent and operational way."
1200 GMT: Taking Down Mortazavi? Parleman News reports that the findings of a special Parliament committee on arrests and detentions have been read in the Majlis.
According to the article, the role of Saeed Mortazavi, former Tehran Prosecutor General, in the abuses of Kahrizak prison was officially recognised, and this committee stressed that the judiciary system should be held accountable for events.
1100 GMT: Another Student Demonstration. Word emerges of a sit-in strike, coinciding with final exams, at Razi University in Kermanshah in western Iran to protest the illegal detention of classmates.
0950 GMT: Justice Denied. Economist and journalist Saeed Laylaz has not been allowed to read out his defence in the appeal of his 9-year sentence.
0935 GMT: We've posted a special assessment of Washington's shift in policy, "Sanctions for Rights"?
0930 GMT: Score 1 for EA, 0 for US Strategy. Less than two hours ago, we noted the declaration of General David Petraeus that all contingencies, e.g. military action, are in play regarding Iran, and predicted, 2No prizes for guessing what Iran's state media will make of that soundbite."
This just in from Press TV's website, "US drops strongest hint of Iran blitz in months."
0835 GMT: Piling on The Leveretts. Muhammad Sahimi joins the shredding of last week's New York Times opinion piece, by Flynt and Hillary Mann Leverett, trying diminish the Green movement and promote the Ahmadinejad Government.
0830 GMT: Movement Outside Tehran? We've posted an interesting piece by Borzou Daragahi of The Los Angeles Times on political shifts beyond the capital.
0745 GMT: This Weekend's Unhelpful Statements. From the Iranian side, Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki made the jump from nuclear discussions to "regime change" allegations yesterday, "Western countries know that Iran does not seek to produce nuclear weapons. However, they intend to use it as a pretext for interfering in internal affairs."
No surprise there --- I heard a well-placed Iranian academic make the same "regime change" claim against the United States last week --- but it does nothing to break the stalemate in the talks on uranium enrichment.
And then from the US side, there's General David Petraeus, the head of the military's Central Command. Petraeus, in an interview to be aired on CNN today, whips out the spectre of The Bomb: "It would be almost literally irresponsible if CENTCOM were not to have been thinking about the various 'what ifs' and to make plans for a whole variety of different contingencies" against Tehran.
No prizes for guessing what Iran's state media will make of that soundbite, when it refers to "interfering in internal affairs".
0730 GMT: We're working on an analysis, to be published Monday, of manoeuvres including and surrounding the Supreme Leader's statement on Saturday. While the attempt to break the Green movement will continue, the question is whether this can be moderated, reducing overt violence and perhaps punishment specific officials for past excesses, while some notional "unity" arrangement can be struck with conservative/principlist critics.
Meanwhile, bits and pieces....
In the midst of these possible manoevures, an interesting comment from Mohammad Hashemi, who claims that former Hashemi Rafsanjani is remaining silent "because no one is listening".
Persian2English offers the latest information on detained members of the student movement Daftar-Takhim-Vahdat.
tagged Abbas Jafari Doulatabadi, Ali Larijani, Ali Motahari, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Borzou Daragahi, Daftar-Tahkim-Vahdat, David Petraeus, Flynt Leverett, Hashemi Fafsanjani, Hillary Mann Leverett, Imam Khomeini Line, Iran, Iran Elections 2009, Kahrizak Prison, Los Angeles Times, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Manouchehr Mottaki, Mehdi Karroubi, Mike Mullen, Mir Hossein Mousavi, Mohammad Hashemi Rafsanjani, Mothers of Mourning, Muhammad Sahimi, Persian2 English, Ramin Pourandarjan, Razi University, Reuters, Saeed Laylaz, Saeed Mortazavi, Tehran Bureau in Middle East & Iran
Abbas Jafari Doulatabadi, Ali Larijani, Ali Motahari, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Borzou Daragahi, Daftar-Tahkim-Vahdat, David Petraeus, Flynt Leverett, Hashemi Fafsanjani, Hillary Mann Leverett, Imam Khomeini Line, Iran, Iran Elections 2009, Kahrizak Prison, Los Angeles Times, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Manouchehr Mottaki, Mehdi Karroubi, Mike Mullen, Mir Hossein Mousavi, Mohammad Hashemi Rafsanjani, Mothers of Mourning, Muhammad Sahimi, Persian2 English, Ramin Pourandarjan, Razi University, Reuters, Saeed Laylaz, Saeed Mortazavi, Tehran Bureau in Middle East & Iran
Reader Comments (16)
New address for Persian2English: http://persian2english.com/
Government documents leaked, preparations for 22 bahman
http://onlymehdi.saharkhiz.net/archives/195859603
RE 07:45 SO many mixed messages! Just last Thursday the news agencies were awash with headlines like 'Iran strike could destabilize Middle East: Pentagon' and this quote from Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Admiral Mullen: A strike on Iran could be "very, very destabilizing" and have unintended consequences for the Middle East, the top U.S. military officer said on Thursday, stressing that diplomacy was crucial.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20100107/pl_nm/us_iran_usa_mullen_1
And then there was the now-you-see-it-now-you-don't January 1st deadline for Iran's acceptance of the nuclear fuel swap deal proposed by the P5+1.
Even voices from Israel are not in unison: 'Israeli general Brigadier-General Uzi Eilam denies Iran is nuclear threat':
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/middle_east/article6982447.ece
RE 09:30 Indeed a highly predictable reaction. But check out how in an article posted last night Press TV spun Larijani's address to police commanders last week:
"Iran's parliament speaker rules out the possibility of a US-led war against Tehran, saying that Washington is targeting his country's national unity.
"The Western and American strategy is to make us waste away our national strengths through internal strife," Ali Larijani said as he addressed a gathering of police commanders in the central Iranian city of Qom on Thursday. "
http://www.presstv.ir/detail.aspx?id=115698§ionid=351020101
Sorry for hogging the beginning of this thread, but I shall leave you all in peace for the next 24 hours with a bit of news I can't resist posting. On Twitter people have been saying the reason for Rafsanjani's silence is that there's no one listening to him. Actually, he is extremely preoccupied with more important things than politics. His family, who rose from modest origins as small-scale pistachio farmers, runs an outfit that dominates Iran's mega$million pistachio export business. But their days as pistachio princes are numbered. And guess who is threatening to dethrone them? None other than Usual Suspect Number One! Oh, the shame....
Iran fears losing pistachio race to US
By Monavar Khalaj in Tehran, January 6 2010
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/f85c47d6-fae3-11de-94d8-00144feab49a.html?nclick_check=1
Thanks, Catherine, for all your updates!
@ 0745 GMT The right link for Persian2English (Tahkim Vahdat) is: http://persian2english.com/?p=3759
@ "Confessions of Ashura"
There was a rumour about heavy 24 hour interrogations already yesterday, obviously to forge new "culprits" for the "unrests", organized by "foreigners" (GB, USA etc.).
Even though the IRI has chosen members of disliked religious and political minorities (Bahais and MKO) as convenient scapegoats, it's scenario is doomed to fail this time. Sazegara announced today that the Greens will not accept any of these accusations, regardless of the religious or political affiliation of the accused.
Coerced confessions have a long and dark history in the IRI, starting after the revolution with leftist groups and continued with the infamous "Hoviyat" (identity) TV series, directed by intelligence officer Saeed Emami: http://regimechangeiran.blogspot.com/2006/06/return-of-television-confessions.html
New accusations from Press TV: "US making moves to back Iran's Green Movement"
http://www.presstv.ir/detail.aspx?id=115770§ionid=351020101
Followed by their usual lie: "In response to the Ashura riots, MILLIONS of Iranians took to the streets on December 30, 2009, demanding that the rioters be brought to justice."
Also quoting AN (late December): "This is a play staged by the US and the Zionists, which just makes us sick."
He will become much more sick on 22 Bahman :-)
For Beirut travellers and others:
Yesterday the Spiegel reported that German BKA arrested two Lebanese citizens in Speyer in Octobre for smuggling millions of Euros from European drug-trade via Frankfurt to Beirut. Their clan has good relationship to high-ranking Hezbollah officials and to the leader Hassan Nasrallah (sorry, no English version available):
http://www.spiegel.de/politik/ausland/0,1518,670987,00.html
Good analysis by Hooman Majd in Foreign Policy Magazine: http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2010/01/06/think_again_irans_green_movement?page=full
I particularly like ""The Green Movement Wants or Needs Foreign Support."
Dead wrong. Nothing could be further from the truth. It is insulting and patronizing to suggest, as many commentators do, that without foreign help or support the green movement cannot be successful, that Iranians on their own are incapable of commanding their own destiny. "
This highlights the fact that US neo-cons and Obama haters (big overlap) use our cause as a football for their petty internal aims. They'd gladly fight to the last Iranian if only it could make Obama look bad.
Five of thirty mourning mothers reportedly freed (Twitter):
http://www.twitlonger.com/show/387cj
Encouraging article from Borzou Daragahi about protests spreading to Iranian heartland (for all Birjandis): http://www.latimes.com/news/nation-and-world/la-fg-iran-heartland10-2010jan10,0,2973347,full.story
Mr Heaven should read it thoroughly!
On Mullrn & Petraeus, that's for, IMHO, a domestic audience primarily. Hawks in both parties would go ape^&*( if the Admin. said, "No military option ever." In truth, I THINK that is the policy (no attack), but they can't/won't say so.
Furthermore, if engagement ever becomes viable on the nuke matter, you wouldn't TOTALLY take it off the table. Leverage.
[...] Read the original post: The Latest from Iran (10 January): “Middle” Ground? | Enduring America [...]
Mullen did a pretty good job of not committing to any course of action -- which seems appropriate given the fluid situation.
In reference to the military option, I would be very surprised if there were not several contingency plans in place. I take Mullen's comments at face value that a military action would severely complicate the current situation and have all kinds of negative secondary effects (i.e. the threshold for military action is very high).
There's also probably a thought that the threat of military action might provide leverage with China in putting through sanctions if it comes to that (e.g. part of the calculation might be that China would be more willing to back sanctions as a way of pre-empting a military approach, because the economic shockwaves from a military confrontation would have a global impact). That leverage only exists though if the threat of force seems credible.
RE 1625 GMT: Ahmadinejad Targeted?
Here's Roozonline.com's somewhat tortured translation of Motahari's words:
Ahmadinejad is the Source of the Plot
Khamenei’s remarks come at a time when Ali Motahari, a Majlis member from Tehran and the son of the prominent and influential cleric ayatollah Motahari who was also the chief theoretician of the Islamic republic and assassinated in 1979, criticized the president of Iran in an unprecedented and unexpected television program.
Motahari called the events of the last seven moths “a failings and political mistakes by Mir-Hossein Mousavi, Mehdi Karoubi and Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, and stressed, “Someone may argue that while I accept the velayat faghih [the leader of the Islamic regime], but disagree with a specific view of the leader and I believe that such a person is not an outsider yet and cannot be considered an outsider by merely not accepting a view without resorting to any action.”
This Majlis representative also said that “Ahmadinejad is a source of the disturbances,” and requested that justice be enacted in the country.
http://www.roozonline.com/english/news/newsitem/article/2010/january/11//authorities-should-respond-sternly.html
RE 1505 GMT: Diplomatic Protests. A former Iranian diplomat has claimed that five current foreign service officers, serving in four Iranian embassies in European countries, have applied for asylum.
Here's a translation: http://persian2english.com/?p=3846
Agree with @kevina. This seems to be a saving face comment added at the far right in the US, not limited to just military and political types but even the common citizenry. There are many people that want to hear that the US will bomb Iran. Not sure if any other Iranian Americans on this site can attest to this but these people are not hard to find.
@JP a good point regarding China however i believe that regardless of any statements as such from the US, China retains the leverage in the Iran discussion as evidenced by comments in regards to sanctions against Iran. I would guess that few believe the US will take military action in Iran given the committments elsewhere. Secondly, if the US does take military action, I believe Mullen's comment that it could bring more people to the support of the governmet, does have a deal of validity. Not to the government specifially but rather the government/regime would have greater ease in appealing to nationalistic sentiment.
What I am not sure of is, besides the press spin, what the Iranians think. From my contacts, some are concerned about the threat and when in the Iranian media, does highten concerns but not sure how widespread this is.