The Latest from Iran (11 January): Reading the Regime

2045 GMT: Sanctions La-Dee-Dah. Associated Press is a-quiver over this statement by Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, though I'm not sure why:

It is clear that there is a relatively small group of decision makers inside Iran. They are in both political and commercial relationships, and if we can create a sanctions track that targets those who actually make the decisions, we think that is a smarter way to do sanctions. But all that is yet to be decided upon.

That's not a breakthrough declaration, only a holding one. The White House does not want the sweeping sanctions proposed by Congress and will go for a "targeted" approach. It's just not clear who is being targeted with what.

1945 GMT: Journalist Mohammad Reza Nourbakhsh has been sentenced to three years in jail by an appeals court for participating in rallies on 15 June. Nourbakhsh was originally given a six-year prison term.

1940 GMT: Beaten in Detention. Kalemeh claims Mehdi Mahmoudian, a senior member of the reformist Islamic Iran Participation Front, has been beaten by the authorities in Evin Prison.

NEW Iran Exclusive: The Latest Nuclear Riddle — Renewed Talks with “West”?
NEW Iran Analysis: Beyond the Headlines, The Regime Battles Itself
NEW Iran & Twitter: Myth v. Reality of Security and “Deep Packet Inspection”
NEW Iran & Twitter: Last Words on The Hell of Heaven (Shahryar)
Latest Iran Video: Military Commander Mullen on US Options (10 January)
Iran Special Analysis: A US Move to “Sanctions for Rights”?
Iran: Challenge to The Government in “The Heartlands”?
The Latest from Iran (10 January): “Middle” Ground?

1935 GMT: The Detained. Back from an academic break to find that an Iranian activist has posted the names of 156 people arrested between the religious days of Tasoa and Ashura (26-27 December) and 9 January.

1635 GMT: Spinning Rafsanjani. Hashemi Rafsanjani, speaking as chairman of the Expediency Council, has made another general call for reconcilation.

Press TV portrays this as "the Iranian nation should follow the rule of the law and avoid taking extrajudicial measures as not to obstruct the path of justice". While this could be applied as an injunction to both the opposition and Government forces, the state outlet puts the emphasis is on following the guidance of the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic: "If [this is] obeyed, balance will return to the society and there will be no room left for frictions. Foreign enemies have clung to the current state of affairs in the country as it is apparent in their tone."

The website also tries to rebut the claim, made by Rafsanjani's brother this weekend, that the former President has been pressured into silence. Instead, it claimed that "Rafsanjani rejected the notion and said he was always trying to resolve the problems away from media hype".

1615 GMT: Those Wacky Leveretts. They may have had their pro-Government, anti-Green movement opinion, published in The New York Times, shredded by analyst after analyst, but that doesn't stop Flynt and Hillary Mann Leverett from returning to their defence of the regime.

On their website, the Leveretts crudely twist a Wall Street Journal article (which was considered in an EA analysis yesterday on the US policy on sanctions, Iran's nuclear programme, and a "rights-first" approach) into "THE OBAMA ADMINISTRATION MOVES TOWARD REGIME CHANGE IN ITS IRAN POLICY". They select and crop quotes, to the point of distortion, but this is their sleight-of-hand claim:

Buying into the proposition that the Islamic Republic is imploding has the effect of driving the policy argument toward support for “regime change” in Tehran.

Umm, no. There is a difference between analysis --- in this case, evaluating the internal difficulties in the Iranian regime --- and advocacy. It's the "is-ought" difference, one which should be picked up by an undergraduate student, let alone a supposed foreign-policy expert: noting that something "is" happening is not the same as declaring it "ought" to happen.

The Leveretts are not undergraduate students, so they know what they are doing. By putting out this claim, "whether President Obama and his advisers want to call their policy “regime change”, that is precisely the direction in which they are moving", they will buttress the propaganda line of the Iranian Government that the opposition can all be attributed to "foreign instigation". (I heard this declaration loud and clear in two presentations, including one by an  academic who works with the Leveretts, at the Beirut conference I attended last week.)

Since the survival of the Iranian regime rests in part on making that allegation stick, and since the Leveretts support the quest for that survival, let's just recognise this piece for what it is: an "ought" piece of advocacy rather than an "is" contribution to analysis.

(P.S. to Flynt and Hillary: Throwing in a picture of Senator Joseph Lieberman, who is calling for a "rights-based" approach to sanctions, with Ahmad Chalabi of Iraq "regime change" infamy, is a really nice touch.)

1505 GMT: Today's Fist-Shaker. It's Iran Prosecutor General Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejeie making an appearance to tell Tehran Prosecutor General Abbas Jafari Doulatabadi that it's time for measures against "elements behind the recent sedition....It is expected that the demands ... that those who were leading the post-election sedition are put on trial, are met."

1500 GMT: The "Reformist" Push. Former President Mohammad Khatami has put out his own statement, following that of Mehdi Karroubi, calling for an end to the "extreme violence" and dialogue over political, social, and economic issues.

1455 GMT: A Day for Analyses. Not sure why, but a lot of information seems to be falling into place today. The latest topic is Iran's nuclear manoeuvres with "the West" --- we've got an exclusive on Tehran's latest attempt to keep the discussions going.

1340 GMT: Waving Sticks. EA readers have offered comments considering the reasons for this weekend's declaration by General David Petraeus, the head of the US military's Central Command, that all military options are open in contingency plans for Iran (see yesterday's updates).

For the Iranian Government, however, there is a simple reading. The Foreign Ministry spokesman declared today, "[Petraeus'] comments are thoughtless and it is better that any statement made in this regard take a constructive approach."

1315 GMT: The Karroubi Statement (see 1150 GMT). Reuters has picked up on Mehdi Karroubi's declaration with takeaway quotes such as....

[I am] prepared for any disaster.....Some are thinking that they can block the reform course by closing down newspapers and putting reformers in jail ... but I remain firm in the path that I have chosen....I announce that such threats will not frighten me and will not weaken me in this path.

Agence France Presse has a shorter but similar article. Inexplicably, both Reuters and AFP miss the even more important part of Karroubi's statement, the 5-point proposal for resolution.

1200 GMT: We've posted a special analysis, based on latest developments and speech, of the battles within the Iranian regime. The conclusion? This will only be resolved "when someone stabs Ahmadinejad in the back".

1150 GMT: Karroubi's "5-Point" Plan. First it was Mir Hossein Mousavi with a 5-point post-Ashura proposal for political resolution; now it's Mehdi Karroubi.

Karroubi has written an open letter proposing 1) admission by Government officials of injustices; 2) adherence to the values of the Islamic Revolution through guarantees such as freedom of the press and legal rights; 3) adherence to non-violence for reform and acceptance of the Supreme Leader; 4) acceptance of criticism and an end to violence against those who dissent; 5) a national debate so Iranian people can make a free and informed decision about the way forward for the country.

1145 GMT: Rah-e-Sabz reports that 56 professors at Elm-o-Sanat University in Tehran have written in support of students, asking that they are able to take examinations without fear of disciplinary action over protests.

The intervention follows an open letter by almost 90 professors at Tehran University to the Supreme Leader, asking for a cessation of violence against demonstrations.

1130 GMT: The "Incomplete" Detainees Report. Parallelling and extending the "reformist" criticism that the Parliament report on detainee abuse is incomplete, Ayande News --- which is far from reformist --- is claiming that Iranian state media have not given a full account of the report and its discussion in the Majlis. Ayande even asks whether those responsible for the abuses at Kahrizak Prison are also responsible for output on Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting.

1110 GMT: Foreign Presence. The Government's overseas push is in Syria, as Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki visits Damascus. No significant news has come out of the talks so far.

0920 GMT: No major news this morning, but a lot of individual developments with deeper meanings this weekend. The Supreme Leader's speech, President Ahmadinejad's appearance in Parliament, the arrest of the Mothers of Mourning and their supporters in Laleh Park, the Parliamentary report on the abuse of detainees: all have gotten headline coverage, but the intra-regime tensions that they reveal have yet to be analysed, if recognised. We'll make a start on that analysis later today.

Meanwhile, Josh Shahryar and Mike Dunn have special analyses trying to put away the recent mis-information on #IranElection, Twitter, and security. Shahryar offers final words of reply to Will Heaven, the blogger for The Daily Telegraph who tried to blame "Twitterati" for endangering the Iranian people, while Dunn separates myth from reality over "Deep Packet Inspection".

Comments

[Catherine]

RE: 1110 GMT: Foreign Presence. The Government’s overseas push is in Syria, as Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki visits Damascus. No significant news has come out of the talks so far

Iran to soon finalize joint bank with Syria
http://www.presstv.com/detail.aspx?id=115798
"the Iran-Syria bank will provide Iranian investors, businesspersons and pilgrims with varying services."

including a safe place for big cash deposits when the SL decides it's time for a "vacation";-)

[Arshama]

@ 1150 GMT
1) impossible, 2) impossible, 3) eventually, 4) impossible, 5) forget it!

[Karolien]

good one
don't bomb Iran, solve Israel-Palestina
and threat will go away
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2010/jan/11/bombing-iran-arab-peace-initiative

[Gloumdalclitch]

I like the metaphor Badak Dad, former Karoubi's advisor, used to describe the present situation (from Liberation, 3 weeks ago)
"I compare the Government of Khamenei, who commands, and Ahmadinejad, who executes, to a running car. A car which is going too fast and cannot stop. Whatever it does - stop or accelerate - this vehicle will have an accident. Many people who are still on board are trying to escape from that crazy car. There are fewer and fewer passengers. The Iranians are watching this car run too fast. Today I am 100% sure it will have an accident."

[pessimist]

http://persian2english.com/?p=3846

Seems there are more and more wanting out of that car... 5 more diplomats seeking assylum, making 27 since elections. (hope this hasn't already been posted).

[Arshama]

After the SL's speech in Qom and subsequent warnings of different government officials to the protesters it's opposition's day today. Imho Karroubi is boldly speaking out what people think in Iran, apart from the fact that he still sticks to the "velayate faghih", which could be interpreted as an essay to create a split between SL and AN by attacking the latter explicitly in point 1). At the same time he condemns the hardline faction in parliament, pushing for harsher punishments (Hosseinian et al.).
His statement is however much more than a repeat of Moussavi's 5 points, because it seriously challenges the whole apparatus, including the SL on behalf of two crucial issues: 1) religious legitimacy and 2) revolutionary legitimacy.
In fact Karroubi denies them both, throughout his letter and in 1) and 2).
His attacks undermines the authority of nearly all political adversaries, which instead of accepting the challenge will certainly continue with intimidating him and the protesters. However they have to reject it, most likely by holding on to their
"foreign unrest disbelievers" mantra.

Meanwhile Jaras has published an article on the "Economic coup by the IRGC" (should be translated): http://www.rahesabz.net/story/7546/

Final remark: In the ongoing discussions on EA I miss a clarification of different power centers in the IRI, or at least an attempt to designate the different players, which are obviously tightly connected, sometimes even overlapping each other.

[florence achard]

Arshama,

" two crucial issues: 1) religious legitimacy and 2) revolutionary legitimacy."

About the second issue: Do the people in Iran really want leaders with "revolutionary legitimacy"?
Maybe they no longer consider the revolution of 79 as legitimate; maybe they would prefer a leader who would say boldly that he refuses the "values" and "legitimacy" of this revolution.
Maybe they are craving for ideas, and values that DON'T derive their legitimacy from that revolution.
Do the people in Iran only hate Khameney and AN or are they more and more hating everything that has happened to their country for 30 years?

[Arshama]

Florence Achard,

In a country where even peaceful protesters are called "mohareb", refusing its cherished "values" or "legitimacy" is equal to suicide. Obviously Karroubi still adheres to these "values", being "derailed" only by this government. And the movement is surely ahead of him, but no one can assess the percentage of those who want to get rid of the whole system. In any case with every further day of this misery their number will be growing.

Meanwhile the new EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton has announced that the 27-nation bloc was moving toward confronting Iran with “some form” of punishment for ignoring international calls to open its nuclear program to scrutiny.
http://televisionwashington.com/floater_article1.aspx?lang=en&t=1&id=17105

Other interesting bit: Seda va Sima (SS) has censored parliament's accusations against Said Mortazavi, which makes Ayande News ask, if Kahrizak and SS are directed from the same center: http://ayandenews.com/news/17327/

[Samuel]

Turkey slams Western pressure over Iran nuclear program
Updated: Monday, January 11, 2010
Photographer: Wikipedia Commons
Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Turkey's Prime Minister18:36GMT—1:36PM/EST

Washington, 11 January (WashingtonTV)—Turkey’s Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Monday criticized major powers for pressuring Iran on its nuclear program while tolerating Israel’s assumed nuclear arsenal.

Speaking at a joint news conference in Ankara with visiting Lebanese Prime Minister Saad al-Hariri, Erdogan also blasted Israeli violations of Lebanese airspace and air strikes in the Gaza Strip.

Israel argues that the overflights are necessary to monitor what it says is massive arms smuggling by Hezbollah militants in Lebanon.

Erdogan said that Turkey was against the development of nuclear arms by any country in the region.

“Israel has nuclear weapons... Those who are cautioning Iran must also caution Israel,” he said, according to AFP.

“If we fail to display a fair attitude in this region, the problems will hit not only the region, but will spread elsewhere as well,” he warned.

Israel’s ties with Turkey have frayed since the three-week Israel offensive in the Hamas-controlled Gaza Strip, which ended last January.

The Israeli Foreign Ministry hit back at Erdogan over his criticism of Israeli policies, saying it could undermine bilateral relations.

“The State of Israel has the full right to protect its citizens from the missiles and terror of Hamas and Hezbollah, and the Turks are the last who can preach morality to the State of Israel and the Israel Defense Forces,” it said in a statement, according to the Haaretz newspaper.

http://televisionwashington.com/floater_article1.aspx?lang=en&t=2&id=17104

[Jay Brulot]

In response to the Leveretts narrow-minded article, great comments found on Huff Post:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/mahmood-delkhasteh/iran-a-new-revolution-on_b_418329.html

[Megan]

Re Karroubi 5 Points at 11:50

Point #3: Forget it, forget it, and forget it.

No one in a government seat who makes decisions that impact lives of millions of Iranians should be allowed to do so unless he/she is elected by peoples’ vote; one person one vote. It does not matter whether that person is called Supreme Public Servant, or Supreme Dog, or President, or Prime minster or whatever, he/she must be elected in a clean and free election. And no freaking mullah has more say than any other person in Iran, Period, and end of story.

How do we get this point across that people rose up because they wanted to be heard by their votes? Now 7 months later, with many lives lost and many forever changed, members of this rotten system (past and present) keep issuing statements to keep the system as is and have one loony that is not elected by people to make life and death decisions for people. Are these people deaf, dumb and mute by issuing statement to have SL untouched? For the love of GOD, stop making fool of yourselves by making statement, 5-points or 500 points, if you cannot or do not want to hear people.

Signed: Mohareb for ever

[Megan]

Florence Achard,

“Do the people in Iran really want leaders with “revolutionary legitimacy”?

I would say only a few millions who are on government payroll as Basiji, Revolutionary Guard, security force, plainclothes militia, mullahs and their families are still supporters of current regime. They support the system because if this system goes down they will lose their employment. Furthermore these regime supporters stand to lose more than their jobs. They, therefore, do whatever it is necessary to save their own neck and continue receiving government handouts.

The rest of people do not want any part of current regime because they are not better off today than they were 30 years ago. Today per capita income is 7.5 % less than what it was thirty years ago. Inflation is above 20% and so is unemployment.

I still believe sanctions, targeted or otherwise, will break the back of this rotten regime. I still believe sanctions will lead to further deterioration of the economy and eventually its implosion. People who cannot feed their families do not fear death anymore and will rise up. Regime supporters who are fed well today will not be fed if government cannot pay them and consequently majority of them will joined people. Twenty to 30-million people in the streets of Iran will finish this government. This criminal regime cannot massacre 20 to 30-million.

Signed: A peoud Mohareb

[Arshama]

Megan,

I agree with your comments on Point 3, but obviously most commentators have forgotten that people tore down Khamenei's posters before and on Ashura. It is also evident that this rotten regime will continue arresting, torturing and killing protesters. Neither Moussavi nor Karroubi are an answer to this problem, but for the moment they are the only ones, who express at least a part of the people's demands and are listened to throughout the world.
The SL, AN and IRGC have set the stage for a violent overthrow of the regime, but the Greens will continue to hollow out the system peacefully from within. It may take one or even two years to erode its foundations, and there will be more victims, but people have now clear objectives to fight for: personal freedom, dignity and prosperity.

[florence achard]

Arshama,

"the Greens will continue to hollow out the system peacefully from within."

I sincerely hope this is what is happening; it would be the best for the people in Iran as it would cost fewer lives but I sometimes suspect Mousavi and Karrubi's only aim is to lure the people back "within the framework of the system" and lock them there.

Megan (proud mohareb!),

I agree with you on point 3 of course: no Supreme leader, whether it is Khamenei or any other!
I don't know if you are an insider or an outsider, but in your opinion, do Iranians still respect Khomeini or are they ready to fell the statue?

[Megan]

Florence Achard,

I am not sure what you mean by insider or outsider. Let’s say I know the culture, the language, the history and my placenta cord is buried there.

I have loads of training in how to listen, probe, analyze, and summarize findings. Based on everything up to now, my answer to your question is the following:

Last June majority of people were dissatisfied but would have fallen in line if they would have been heard and their votes would not have been null and void. Meaning they would have given this whole Khomeini concocted system one more chance. Today, they will reject any shade of Khomeini in their government. Khomeini remains in the hearts of some deeply religious people as a religious figure until all of his crimes are exposed. In 10 to 20 years Khomeini will be a page reflecting a dark era in history of Iran.

I have said this before and I say it again; this failed regime greatest gift to Iranians was the 2009 rigged election. They had rigged every election in the past 30 years and they thought they would get away with it again. Little they knew that this would be their last election, rigged or not.

I agree with Arshama that this regime would not leave without a bloody confrontation and that is extremely painful to accept and witness. But it will come to an end soon especially if the international community get serious with effective and meaningful sanctions.

Signed: Mohareb to the core