The Latest from Iran (18 January): Firewall

2205 GMT: And Here's Another One. Looks like the campaign against Hashemi Rafsanjani hasn't stopped. Someone in the regime has ensured that he will not be leading the ceremony at Imam Khomeini's memorial on 11 Bahman (1 February), the start of celebrations of Iran's Islamic Revolution.

2200 GMT: Political Teasers. While I've been out, EA readers have been sending in a series of interesting stories on the manoeuvres inside the establishment --- we'll have the best of them, with an analysis, to start Tuesday morning. Meanwhile....

Ayande News continues its campaign against former 1st Vice President and Ahmadinejad aide Esfandiar Rahim-Mashi. The newspaper features the claim that several Rahim-Mashai relatives have been appointed to the board of the state automobile company Saipa, taking a controlling interest.

Rahim-Mashai's son, Reza, has become managing director of Saipa's investment branch while his nephew is now the company's head of business development.

NEW Iran Analysis: How “Mohareb” Death Sentences May Hurt Regime
Latest Iran Video: Marandi on CNN on Detainee Abuses “Mortazavi to Blame” (17 January)
Iran: The Ali-Mohammadi Case “A Political Assassination”
Iran: The Ali-Mohammadi Funeral “The Stolen Coffin”
UPDATED Iran Video & Translation: Dr Etaat’s Opposition On State Media (14 January — Parts 3-5)
Latest from Iran (17 January): Setting Aside Diversions

2150 GMT: More on the assassination of prosecutor Vali Haji Gholizadeh, shot dead in front of his home in Khoy City in Iran's West Azerbaijan province, bordering Turkey and Iraq. A police official says, "A special unit has been formed to identify those behind this assassination."

1935 GMT: Another 5-Point Plan (cont.). Radio Zaamaneh has published an English-language summary of the 5-point plan presented by 34 Iranian women (see 1615 GMT). The signatories, call for an “annulment of all discriminatory and anti-women laws, recognition of women’s right to their body and mind, ending violence against women and prosecution of all perpetrators of the crimes committed in the past thirty years” as part of a resolution of the current crisis. They also support "freedom of thought, speech and assembly", call for an end to torture and the death penalty, and demand “the immediate and unconditional release of all political prisoners”.

The 34 women put their 5 points within the framework of the Islamic Republic, "not changing the president or limiting the power of the leadership; but rather the realization of fundamental and structural changes”.

1920 GMT: Vali Haji Gholizadeh, the prosecutor of Khoy, a town in western Azerbaijan in northwestern Iran, has been killed by a gunshot.

1653 GMT: I'll be away for a few hours for academic and media work, returning about 2100 GMT for an evening update.

1650 GMT: Norooz is reporting that the Qoba Mosque in Shiraz, which was occupied by pro-Government groups who closed the offices of Ayatollah Dastgheib, has reopened.

1615 GMT: Another 5-Point Plan. Responding to and interacting with Mir Hossein Mousavi's 5-point proposal of 1 January, 34 Iranian women have published their own 5-point manifesto for resolution of the political crisis.

1440 GMT: Demonstrations and Trials. One reliable Iranian activist is updating on today's "mohareb" trial of five accused, while another is reporting that 100s of family members of detainees have gathered outside the Tehran Prosecutor General's office.

1145 GMT: Poking at "Foreign Intervention", Chapter 2 (see 0940 GMT). Minister of Interior Mostafa Mohammad Najjar has declared the Islamic Republic will have its revenge on "foreign elements" (and, yes, he means you, Israel) over the assassination of Professor Massoud Ali-Mohammadi.

1130 GMT: The "Mohareb" Trials. Iranian Students News Agency is reporting that five protesters, detained on Ashura (27 December), have gone on trial, accused of "mohareb" (war against God), a charge that could carry the death sentence. The Islamic Republic News Agency has said the five are members of the People's Mujahideen Organisation of Iran (PMOI).

See our related analysis, "How 'Mohareb' Death Sentences May Hurt Regime".

0940 GMT: Mottaki to Britain "We Will Decide If We Like You". Today's poke at "foreign intervention" comes from Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki, who says: "Iran has carried out a thorough study on its relations with Britain in different fields particularly over the past six months. There are 10-12 working fields between Iran and the UK. We are currently reviewing each area."

No word yet of British panic over the statement.

0800 GMT: The Regime and Mohareb. We've posted a report by Edward Yeranian of Voice of America which points to risks for the regime in threatening death sentences for protesters because they are "mohareb" (warriors against God).

0700 GMT: More on Target Mortazavi. Press TV's website is headlining the letter by 55 members of Parliament to President Ahmadinejad and the head of Iran's judiciary, Sadegh Larijani, "demanding clarification" on the Kahrizak prison enquiry and the case of Saeed Mortazavi.
0650 GMT: And If You're Really Into Battles. On the Ahmadinejad v. Rafsanjani front, Hojetolelam Saghaye Biriaa, an advisor to Ahmadinejad, used a speech to criticise the Green Movement and then attacked the former President, "The Leader’s approach and beliefs are completely different to those of Hashemi Rafsanjani, exactly like Imam Khomeini, whose understanding and beliefs were different to the approach and beliefs of Ayatollah Montazeri."

0640 GMT: Motahhari v. The Government (Round 45). Just to highlight another running story, the "challenge within" from member of Parliament and Larijani ally Ali Motahhari, here are the weekend's headlines:

Motahhari directly criticised Ahmadinejad, accusing him as being one of the principle causes of the post-election crisis and saying he has to apologize to people for his wrong actions. Ahmadinejad advisor Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai responded to a group of journalists: “Firstly, what Motahhari is saying is cheap and baseless and, secondly, we are in the processes of filing a complain against him."

Back came Motahhari, declaring that Mashai should not interfere in and talk about issues which are beyond his "brain capacity" and that he should continue working on his ridiculous plan of Iran-Israel friendship. Then Motahhari returned to Ahmadinejad: the President is like "the person who has caused a big and tragic (car) accident but he has escaped from the scene and we have to try and penalise and punish the person who has the most responsibility".



0600 GMT: Rah-e-Sabz reports concerns over the deteriorating health of Ebrahim Yazdi, the former Foreign Minister and leader of the Freedom Movement of Iran, who has been detained since Ashura (27 December). The 79-year-old Yazdi was also held just after the June election but, on that occasion, was soon released.

0555 GMT: Cyber-War Update: Mahmoud Silenced. President Ahmadinejad's blog is still off-line, weeks after the website was attacked.

0540 GMT: The lead news this morning continues to be the regime's effort at legitimacy through the investigation of the detainee abuses at Kahrizak Prison. A couple of months ago, the speculation was that former Tehran Prosecutor General Saeed Mortazavi would be the fall guy, facing a trial and jail for his supposed lead role in the scandal of beatings and deaths of prisoners. That was deflected by Mortazavi's appointment as an aide to President Ahmadinejad, but now it appears that he is the firewall against challenges to others in the Government and regime, including the Supreme Leader.

We've got the video of the CNN interview in which Tehran University academic Seyed Mohammad Marandi lays out, in the guise of reporting and analysis, the strategy. (Apologies to those of you in the US whom CNN have blocked from seeing the video; the alternative, as laid out by our readers, is to download the video from CNN's Amanpour website and play it back on QuickTime.)

Elsewhere, Agence France Presse picks up on the opening provided by the Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting debates, in which some reformists have made telling challenges to the regime. While we have highlighted the remarks of Dr Javad Etaat, posting the video and translation of his contribution, AFP notes the exchange between reformist member of Parliament Mostafa Kavakebian and "hard-line" editor of Kayhan, Hossein Shariatmadari.

Comments

[Arshama]

Sobh be kheyr,

Masoud253 argues about the tactics to paralyse the movement with these TV "discussions" on Youtube, rightly poining to the fact that IRIB is in the hands of the SL. Obviously Raffers and SL have reached some kind of agreement and try to "hijack" the ideas of the Greens: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MZAKDq7HMlE
I doubt about their success, too much blood has been shed and nothing has been solved, especially not the problem of stolen votes.

[Megan]

Arshama,

Who is this guy? Is he in ran?

[Afshin]

At 8:39, 8:40 of the tape why does it look like the tape is cut and two scenes are edited back together !?

[shangool]

Arshama

If SL and Raffers have come to an agreement, shouldn`t then SL put a lid on the people criticizing Rafs. The verbal attacks on him has been continious since his FP.
Ì`m thinking this verbal battle has to materialize into something significant. We have: AN vs Rafs, Motahari vs AN/Rahim-Mashai, Pro AN MP`s against Mashai, former IRGC cmdr, Rezaei,Safavi against the pro AN faction of IRGC, then mix in SL, the greens and the Marjas. Something is bound to happen soon.

[ange paris]

Amazing video from Moussavi's facebook :

http://www.facebook.com/video/video.php?v=267654257392&ref=mf

[ange paris]

An other video for 22 Bahman, very sad !!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K9VwMqr6jxw

[Wenn es an der “brain capacity]

[...] es an der “brain capacity” mangelt 18. Januar 2010 — Oliver M. Piecha enduring america bringt diesen bezaubernden Wortwechsel, der die Verfallserscheinungen innerhalb des Establishments [...]

[Catherine]

Here's a very good article on the Iranian regime's fear of female activists, in the past and now: 'Iran threatened by female activists'
http://www.thenational.ae/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20100118/FOREIGN/701179822/1002

[Arshama]

Megan,

He is certainly not in Iran, and I really don't know him. Found this video on Twitter and thought it is a useful contribution to the discussion.

Afshin,

This video is apparently not made by a professional.

[ange paris]

Arshama
Thank you for sending us this video and I have found that it's not idiot ! after Ashura I was very , very and very surprised by the statement of Mr Moussavi and now by these free "discussions in IRIB ! while the journalists and HR activists,doing their jobs and for " nothing ", are arrested, juged, imprisonned tortured and killed ! I think what he says , Mr Masoud 253 is really sensible and we have to be careful ! our good shark is emerging but a little bit late .

[ange paris]

New video for 22 Bahman

http://www.facebook.com/video/video.php?v=268183927392&ref=mf

These videos are like multivitamines to continue our path; my preferred one !

[Arshama]

Ange Paris, Catherine,

Our good shark is not as powerful as Masoud 253 thinks, his traditional speech for 12 Bahman in Khomeini's mausoleum was cancelled: http://www.peykeiran.com/Content.aspx?ID=12344

But look at this! Ayatollah Sadegh Shirazi said "Imam Hossein was an anti-revolutionary (zede enghelab) in his time" http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wq0YX82lNgY&feature=youtu.be

Meanwhile I posted a special on Iranian prisons (mostly links):
http://arshama3.wordpress.com/2010/01/
They need much more for the remaining 30 or 40 million protesters...

[kevina]

To pivot off of Arshama and shangool, I think http://mikverbrugge.tumblr.com/post/339237568/insider-opinion-not-a-single-official-is-unaware-of" rel="nofollow">THIS Verbrugge dispatch is interesting. Mik's military info is laughable, but his inner sources on regime pol. dynamics has been good. I think he's right that Raf has, essentially, been trying to make a deal with the SL. Given some limited openings on IRIB, Motahari's actions, etc., there's been limited success.

BUT soon, I think, the hardliners/Ahmadi types will force his hand. Maybe they arrest Mousavi, Karroubi, etc.. Either way, a provocation of sorts. KH would then have to choose. Which way does he go?

[Arshama]

Kevina,

Hardliners have already reacted. According to Peyke Iran, Hemmat and two other related weeklies lost their publishing permit: http://www.peykeiran.com/Content.aspx?ID=12330
To fuel up the people's hate, they published a special edition labelled "Amin jame'e" (social confidant) distributed in high numbers protesters in offices, schools and mosques, with the photos of 65 asking for their identification: http://www.peykeiran.com/Content.aspx?ID=12341
Now this is public manhunt at its best, which reminds me much of the Third Reich, and should be also a warning to all moderate hardliners: you are next!
This declaration of war against the own people is a sign of weakness, which leads to nowhere, except civil war. I wonder, if the regime is corrupt enough in its whole to accept such a breakdown. What about the warnings of former IRGC-commander Rahim Safavi to the regime? And what about the moderate hardliners?

[Barry]

Arshama

Meanwhile, the rats continue to leave the ship

http://persian2english.com/?p=4547

Barry

[The Latest from Iran (18 Janua]

[...] Excerpt from: The Latest from Iran (18 January): Firewall | Enduring America [...]

[Reality Check]

Looks like the foreign media is now literally flogging a dead horse. The real situation in Iran is quite stable and peaceful. These foreign based websites do generate some wishful excitement that may be stressful and hazardous to the health and well being of the wisful "regime change" diaspora. In the past 31 years, we have heard the imminent collapse of the Islamic Republic mantra every few months. To quote Matk Twain, "the news of Iran's collapse may be exaggerated". I believe a reality check is good for the soul once in a while.

[Arshama]

"Looks like the foreign media is now literally flogging a dead horse."

Well said! This dead horse is your SL, who refuses to hear what well-meaning advisors try to tell him. Not the foreign media, but his own advisors.
Otherwise your logic is insufficient, 31 years were enough to build up an opposition inside the country. It will take over the affairs in the 32nd year.

[Cecil]

@Reality Check

"Looks like the foreign media is now literally flogging a dead horse. The real situation in Iran is quite stable and peaceful."

(lmao) I almost feel off my chair reading your comments. Are you living in a dreamland or neverland? Even if you just watch and hear the Iranian regimes propaganda machine, forget about the opposition and western media, you cannot say there is stability and peace in Iran.

"To quote Matk Twain, “the news of Iran’s collapse may be exaggerated”. I believe a reality check is good for the soul once in a while."

It's not Iran that is collapsing, its the regime. I aggre with you that it might be exaggerated but it is based on facts not on beliefs. Too many videos and links to support that claim. Maybe you should do your own reality check once in a while. Its good for your soul...

[Arshama]

Barry,

Thanks for the news. I read somewhere diplomats in Germany and England did the same.
Meanwhile AN and his beloved Malijak become holier day by day. In a meeting in Mashhad the dwarf with the aura told his critics that Rahim Mashaie is a "relative of God" (oulia-e allah) http://ayandenews.com/news/17551/
Hard times for the SL!

[Megan]

Reality Check,

Reality Check???? What a misnomer, body!! Try Fantasy Check for a handle, it fits you prefect. And keep smoking whatever it is that you are smoking. We will bring you out of coma soon.

[Fantasy Check]

[Duplicate post from Reality Check]

So called "regime change" in Iran is highly unlikely. There is no critical mass but a lot of delusional wishful thinking emanating from the exiled diaspora who have been claiming this or even worse nonsense everytime the weather in Tehran changes or some Ayatollah sneezes. A mature mind tends to dispel such hyperbole. Only time is the biggest artbiter of TRUTH.

[Megan]

I am afraid I agree with Masoud253 in some part. I believe giving airtime to Dr. Etaat on Seda v Sima was a token gesture, a bone thrown at Green Democracy Movement to shut it down. I, however, do not believe this strategy is the product of a deal between Raf. And SL but it is the regime that has chosen a different formula to defuse the Green Democracy Movement. A part of this new formula is to give airtime to select members of opposition on its own term in its own medium, Seda v Sima, and another part will be to throw a few people to the wolves e.g. Mortazavi and other goons.

Regime believes this new formula provides some face saving in the international arena that IR is a democratic system and allows people who disagree with it to be heard, puts out the raging fire for democracy and freedom of speech in the society and shuts down the opposition leaders.

Remember Mousavi and Karrroubi both announced they supported the system and the constitution of Islamic Republic and they only wanted to stop the departure from that. Also reformist leaders were asking for a public venue to express their views. Dr. Etaat was given an opportunity to be Mousavi and Karroubi’s first microphone.

I hope people see through this and if they do not I am afraid the problem festers, and it will become even more difficult to eradicate this regime in the future. We now know that it was easier to get rid of this system 25 years ago and before they set roots so deeply throughout the Iranian society. This regime is totally incapable of managing Iran economy and the more they stay around the deeper will be the economical rot.

[Rev. Magdalen]

Reality Check please provide vids of previous times when people tore down Khamenei's picture and trampled it while shouting "Death to the dictator"? Because the mainstream news keeps saying that this is the first time anything even close to that has ever happened, indicating that the cultlike hold on people's minds which the IRI enjoyed for so long seems to be wearing off en masse all at once. If people have actually been shouting for the overthrow of the Supreme Leader for 30 years, and none of this is new, surely there are videos to prove it?

[Megan]

Fantasy Check,

First, I thank you for taking my advice, if indeed you are the “Reality Check “and changed your handle so quickly to “Fantasy Check”. It tells me you are curable and that is really a good sign.

Second, I would like to bring your attention to two chants coming from streets of Iran; “Mar Bar Asleh Valyet Fagheh” (death to the principle and concept of supreme leadership), “esteghlal, Azadi, Jomhoori Irani” (independence, freedom, Republic of Iran). These are not the words of “delusional wishful thinking emanating from the exiled diaspora”.

Third, I agree with you that “Only time is the biggest artbiter of TRUTH” if you meant to say arbiter. Time has already revealed the truth about Islamic Republic that is neither Islamic nor a Republic. Time has already revealed the truth that Islamic Rubbish of a Republic is a fascist criminal system that has looted Iran and that it has been the biggest shame of our otherwise proud history. We have traveled the time and have seen truth- the truth that in the student uprising of 10 years ago people in streets of Iran did not shout “Rhbr Ma Ghateleh Vla Yetsheh BaTeleh” or “Nage Ma, Nage Ma, Rhbr Aldanege Ma” but they do today. Are you saying these chants from streets of Iran today are voices and words from “delusional wishful thinking emanating from the exiled diaspora”? If you do, then do you not think you yourself may deserve the badge of “delusional”???

I just hope that you do check in when your beloved regime goes down in flame so we can properly express our condolences to you and your other Basiji brothers.