The Latest from Iran (19 January): Cross-Currents

2115 GMT: Persian2English, from Ali Tavakoli, reports that the Revolutionary Court has handed down an 8 1/2-year prison sentence to student leader Majid Tavakoli, arrested on 16 Azar (7 December), for participation in an illegal gathering (5 years), propaganda against the regime (1 year), insult of the Supreme Leader (2 years), and insult of the President (6 months). In addition, Tavakoli is banned from any involvement in political activities and forbidden to leave the country for five years.

1940 GMT: Nuclear Deadlock. The Associated Press reports, from diplomatic sources, that Tehran has formally responded to the "third-party enrichment" proposal by insisting that a swap of uranium stock has to take place inside Iran.

1935 GMT: The Khatami Criticism. The website sympathetic to Mir Hossein Mousavi has posted a full summary of Mohammad Khatami's scatching critique of the Ahmadinejad Government (1545 GMT and 1749 GMT). Another notable extract is Khatami's assessment of the Parliamentary investigation on the detainee abuses at Kahrizak Prison: “This report is a sad evidence of a disaster in the Islamic Republic....Much of the truth has not been told but even this little is enough to shaken the back bone of those devoted to the establishment, Islam and Iran."

NEW Iran Analysis: The Supreme Leader Warns Rafsanjani
NEW Iran Special: Breaking Mousavi’s Movement — Beheshti & Abutalabi
NEW Iran Analysis: Reality Check (Yep, We Checked, Government Still in Trouble)
Iran Analysis: How “Mohareb” Death Sentences May Hurt Regime
Latest Iran Video: Marandi on CNN on Detainee Abuses “Mortazavi to Blame” (17 January)
The Latest from Iran (18 January): Firewall

1920 GMT: Rah-e Sabz is now saying that the reported closure of the Hosseinieh at Jamaran (see 1800 GMT) by Seyed Hassan Khomeini was a lie of the "conservative" press and the house of worship is now open for "people's pilgrimage".

1800 GMT: Closing Down Khomeini? The Hosseiniyeh (house of worship) of Jamaran in northern Tehran, where Ayatollah Khomeini lived, has been sealed up. The Hosseinieh was the site of the memorial service for Grand Ayatollah Montazeri and the speech of Mohammad Khatami, broken up by pro-Government activists on Tasua (26 December).

Perhaps the closing of the Hosseinieh is a wise move, because the Khomeinis seem to be a troublesome bunch these days. On Friday, Seyed Hassan Khomeini, the grandson of the Ayatollah, paid a visit to the family of Seyed Ali Mousavi, the nephew of Mir Hossein Mousavi who was killed on Ashura. Seyed Yasser Khomeini, the other grandson of Imam Khomeini, was one of the reformist clerics present.

1749 GMT: Quote of the Day. From Mohammad Khatami (see 1545 GMT): "You cannot rule a people with rage and by force."

1744 GMT: Cracking Down More and More. Alongside our specific analysis of regime attempts to break the Mousavi camp comes this wider claim from Peyke Iran: 50 political activists and 800 Ashura protesters are under heavy pressure to name friends who participated in the demonstrations. The head of Iran's judiciary, Sadegh Larijani, has given permission to detain "all" who participated in Grand Ayatollah Montazeri's memorial and Ashura rallies.

1735 GMT: More Newspaper Fun (see 0820 GMT). President Ahmadinejad's advisor for press affairs, Ali Akbar Javanfekr, has condemned earlier indifferences to the press law and promises to handle it more carefully.

Hmm.... Given that 10 publications (Sarmayeh, Hayat-e Nou, Kalameh, Farhang-e Ashti, Hemmat, Mowj-e Andisheh, Kargozaran, Etemad-e Melli, Arya, and Ham-Mihan) have been shut down recently and Rah-e-Sabz has reported that it received a warning, I'm not sure "indifference" is the term I would have used.

1725 GMT: Thanks to excellent EA sources, we have two special analyses this afternoon: a reading of the Supreme Leader's latest speech as a warning to Hashemi Rafsanjani and a look at the detentions of two key aides to Mir Hossein Mousavi, Ali Reza Beheshti and Massoud Abutalabi.

1553 GMT: The Internet Threat. Iran's police forces have continued to talk tough about their monitoring of the Internet and mobile communications. A few days after warning Iranians against any organisation of protest via e-mail or text message, the police website declared, "After the publication of pictures of Ashura day [of] rioters on the police website and in the police special edition, ... more than 40 elements of sedition were identified and arrested with the cooperation of noble Iranians."

1545 GMT: The Khatami Statement. Mohammad Khatami has made another pointed intervention today. Speaking with a group of post-election detainees who have been released, he criticised those in power who "commit violence with complete immunity" and declared, "Many lies have been told these days and many promises have been made but people see those in charge of their affairs have not done much."

Khatami also put out the message that the Green movement is operating with legal boundaries and with respect for the Islamic Republic, "People realise that many of the protesters are not ill-intentioned and their protest is reasonable."

1530 GMT: Back from a day of academic duties to catch up with news. We are working on a major story about arrests and hope to have that posted within 45 minutes.

0830 GMT: Memorials and Tributes. A series of pointed testimonies yesterday: the students of the slain professor Massoud Ali-Mohammadi have posted a video tribute, the mother of the detained student leader Majid Tavakoli spoke with Voice of America, and the father of Seyed Ali Mousavi (the nephew of Mir Hossein Mousavi killed on Ashura) has talked about his son's death.

/(The Voice of America programme also includes an interesting discussion on tensions within the regime.)

0820 GMT: In the Newspaper World.... Curious develpments with the banning of three weeklies --- Mowj-e Andisheh, Hemmat, and Farhang-e Ashti --- by Iranian authorities.

The curiosity lies not in the bans, which are a frequent occurrence, but in the immediate reincarnation of Hemmat 2. With Hemmat reportedly suspended for publishing about the "friends of Hashemi Rafsanjani", its successor considers the friends of Rafsanjani and of the Supreme Leader.

Brighter minds than mine will have to sort this one out.

0815 GMT: A Grand Ayatollah and the "Secular Greens". The 15-p0int manifesto of the Secular Green Movement continues to gather signatories. Interesting to see this name among them: Grand Ayatollah Seyyed Hossein Kazemeyni Boroujerdi, who has called for separation of religion and government and who --- with many of his followers --- was arrested in 2006.

0810 GMT: Remembering, Living Ashura. The blogger Persian Umpire returns, having found an Internet connection, with a first-hand account of the events of Tasua and Ashura (26-27 December).

0735 GMT: We've noted, in our morning analysis, the current of opinion "within the Establishment" against the Ahmadinejad. We're not saying it's time for the President to pack his bags, but the situation is far from settled.

Ahmadinejad's most notable statement on Monday was another jump away from the domestic arena. He used a visit from Georgian Foreign Minister Grigol Vashadze to take a swipe at the "West", declaring that NATO's eastward expansion does not serve the interests of the countries in the region. (Which tells you that the Foreign Minister was just a prop, since Georgia has been pressing for that expansion --- remember the background to the 2008 Georgia-Russia conflict?)

On the economic front, however, there may be another current against the President. The Tehran Times --- not, I hasten to add, an opposition publication --- has what appears to be an extraordinary declaration from Mohsen Bahrami-Arz-Aqdas, the chairman of the Tehran Chamber of Commerce: foreign investments in Iran tumbled 96 percent in the Iranian calendar year 1387 (March 2008-March 2009).

In the face of the economic sitaution, Bahrami-Arz-Aqdas said the Parliament should postpone Ahmadinejad's 5-Year Development Plan until next year, especially given the lack of goals and vagueness in the document.
Bahrami added that the 10 percent growth cited in the plan requires the investment which continues to decline.

The Government's cross-current against this continued unsettling news? More threats, more trials. Claimed footage of the hearing for two "mohareb" (war against God) defendants has now emerged.

Comments

[Greeny]

Re. 1800 GMT: Closing Down Khomeini?...

Rah-e Sabz is now saying (9:28 PM IST) that Hossieniyeh Jamaran in open and the closure of Jamaran was a conservative site lie:
http://www.rahesabz.net/story/8233/

It’s earlier (10:56 AM IST) report was quoting the conservative Jahan News site. The earlier (now denied) report of the closure said that Hassan Khomeini had himself decide to close the hossieniyeh.

There were reports a couple of weeks ago that Khomieni family may move to Najaf as a protest to the attack on Jamaran by plain clothes and basij during the Khatami Ashura speech. But now Rah-e Sabz is saying that the hosseyniyeh was closed while the damage from the atatck was repaired and is now open for “people’s pigramage”

[kevina]

Strong stuff from (good) Khatami, esp. coming from him. Anyone else think that compromise is OFF again? I do.

[Fantasy Check]

Hello there. Do you people live in total isolation? THERE IS LESS THAN ZERO CHANCE OF ANY "REGIME CHANGE". I will post a gentle reminder in a month when not even a bird will squek at the 31 anniversary of the LAST GREAT REVOLUTION.

[Plastic Bertrand]

No regime change but civil war or total anarchy-yes time for the persians to squirm for the trouble they have caused on Arab soil-payback for the meddling that does not concern them-Long live iraq free of the persian !

[Megan]

Fantasy Check,

In case you did not check my reply to your post yesterday.

First, I thank you for taking my advice, if indeed you are the “Reality Check “and changed your handle so quickly to “Fantasy Check”. It tells me you are curable and that is really a good sign.

Second, I would like to bring your attention to two chants coming from streets of Iran; “Mar Bar Asleh Valyet Fagheh” (death to the principle and concept of supreme leadership), “esteghlal, Azadi, Jomhoori Irani” (independence, freedom, Republic of Iran). These are not the words of “delusional wishful thinking emanating from the exiled diaspora”.

Third, I agree with you that “Only time is the biggest artbiter of TRUTH” if you meant to say arbiter. Time has already revealed the truth about Islamic Republic that is neither Islamic nor a Republic. Time has already revealed the truth that Islamic Rubbish of a Republic is a fascist criminal system that has looted Iran and that it has been the biggest shame of our otherwise proud history. We have traveled the time and have seen truth- the truth that in the student uprising of 10 years ago people in streets of Iran did not shout “Rhbr Ma Ghateleh Vla Yetsheh BaTeleh” or “Nage Ma, Nage Ma, Rhbr Aldanege Ma” but they do today. Are you saying these chants from streets of Iran today are voices and words from “delusional wishful thinking emanating from the exiled diaspora”? If you do, then do you not think you yourself may deserve the badge of “delusional”???

I just hope that you do check in when your beloved regime goes down in flame so we can properly express our condolences to you and your other Basiji brothers.

[Observer]

Looks like a lot of people on these blogs are in for some severe disappointment as ground realities in Iran are totally different. However, it is good that you kids post on blogs to vent your frustrations as it cuts down on stress and also helps hallucinate without the benefit of mind altering drugs so harmful for your mental health, especially in economically depressed smoke stacks like Binghamton. I guess a regime change wetdream is better than video violence or otherwise. I hope you are not to disappointed when nothing happens and another year and a decade goes by.

[Megan]

Fantasy Check,

Ponder on the following:

Bahman 88, Jomhoori Islami Dargozshat (Bahman 88, Feb. 2010, Islamic Repubic died)

Kar khoda Ba Khoda Din Az Siasat Joda (work of God is with God, government free of religion)

Bahman 88, Dictatory Dargozshat (on Bahman 88, Feb 2010 dictatorship died)

And there are more to come.

[Barry]

Observer

Most of the people who frequent this Forum do have their dreams - and they are here to try in a small way to assist their dreams to come true.

But why are you here?

Are you really so confident of what you say??

Or do you have quiet fear?? Fear of that great unknown that is lurking just around the corner - the kind of fear that eats away at you. I think that you may have - because why else would you be here. Surely this is just a waste of your time? Or does the fear become too much for you and you can't help yourself. Be prepared for any eventuality - you may yet have to run!

Barry

[Arshama]

Barry,

Thanks a lot for your words, damet garm :-)

Yes, many of us here do have their dreams ... and dreads. To me it is the dread of even more Iranian citizens being tortured, raped and killed by a regime, which does everything to survive. Obviously some "observers" are angry about these atrocities to be published.
"For the past thirty years, Iranian people were seen through the prism of their government and its foreign policy. Their opposition to that government was largely ignored", as Behzad Yaghmaian notes: http://www.foreignpolicyjournal.com/2009/10/18/a-rapprochement-with-the-people-of-iran-not-with-ahmadinajad/
We will continue to have their voices been heard ...

[Rev. Magdalen]

My poem for Iran:

The caterwauling is unbearable
Cacophony of pain
"Where is my child?"
Those with ears to hear can't shut it out
They are compelled to assist
This must come to an end

[Bosco]

Observer and Fantasy Check share the same traits as the regime: self-righteousness, arrogance and overconfidence.

[Fantasy Check]

Actually we live in a world of reality where global power has shifted East and China is the only superpower left and is a key ally of Iran. There is simply no cohesive opposition and the type of people who read these English language blogs are not even 1% of Iranian population. I don't want to disappoint your cosy comfort zone, but you simple folks are victims of GROUP THINK. The South African Apartheid regime had similar delusions till the very end, and currently the Zionists occupying Palestine have the same hubris along with US. A few people posting reptitive rants devoid of facts are not regime change material.

I have traveled across Iran and simply do not find the critical mass or even a latent desire amongst the 90% religious conservative masses to foment a foreign supported" regime change" let alone a counter revolution. This the second decade of 21st century and not 1953 and Operation Ajax redux where the US and UK can rent a mob and walk into the Majlis. Try this tactic now and watch the national, regional blowback and global consequences. IT IS A BRAVE NEW ASIA CENTRIC WORLD OUT THERE. WAKE UP AND SMELL THE ROSEWATER.

[Scott Lucas]

I think the South African Apartheid regime fell in the face of a sustained popular campaign of protest.

S.

[Barry]

Fantasy Check

China is not an ally of Iran - China is not an ally of anyone!

China is a MASS of people (about 1,300 million of them) http://www.chinability.com/China%20population%20clock.htm - and the Chinese Regime is well aware that it can only keep control of this great mass if it is able to continue feeding them.

Hence - China is a now a huge voracious animal, that today is prowling the entire planet Earth, looking for ANYTHING that it may be able to consume. Any energy source, any mineral source, any food source. You may think that you can use them for your own purposes- but they will eventually EAT you and anyone else that gets in their path.

Not only should Iran beware of China - but all of the rest of the world should as well.

We (Middle East, Europe, Americas, etc) are all faced with the fact that the world now has approx 7000 million people - with forecasts of an additional 2000 million people within the next 40 years.

You should forget about any notion of global power shifting, left right, east west, north south. Think more about global chaos shifting EAST, as food, water, energy runs out!!!! Even more chaotic than the east has ever been!

Barry

[Rev. Magdalen]

Barry do not be alarmed, there is plenty of carbon, hydrogen, oxygen, and nitrogen in the asteroid belt waiting for us to turn it into delicious food. There's free pure ice too! All we have to do is stop fighting each other here on Earth and go get it. That seems chancy right now but don't worry we'll get it together before it's too late. We have to.

[Barry]

Rev Magdalen

"All we have to do is stop fighting each other here on Earth and go get it. "

Sounds like a nice theory :) -- but-- all 9000 million of us.????

No - we homo sapiens have forgotten that we are animals (we believe that we are above nature) - but we really do know what happens to an animal species that over breeds. We just don't care to admit it - or know that we can't do anything about it. Mother Earth will determine our fate - not the Christian God, nor Allah, nor the pantheons of Roman, Greek, Egyptian, Hindu, (etc) gods.

But - I won't be here anyway :)

Barry

[Rev. Magdalen]

Fantasy Check did it ever occur to you that maybe people didn't express their true feelings to you because you're obviously a Regime lackey? Many's the dictator who gets surprised to find out that the flattery he came to expect as his due was nothing more than words when the mob comes to his door with pitchforks and torches.

[ange paris]

Fantasy Check
Yesterday I heard a "discussions" in TV , the journalists debating the economic crisis said that we have this kind of crisis every 5-6 years and the next one will be because of China and it's huge amounts of investements, so don't bet too much on China wich is the friend of Iran only for the collected advantages; giving country's money to the others( China, Russia, Hamas, hezbollah, Venezuela and .......) , when the own people of country starve to death, is really not glorious , my bassig friend; we could be the most powerful country in the world because of :
_ The oil in the iranian soil
- The genious well educated people of Iran
But unfortunately your bosses have decided the fate of our country differently, putting aside the interest of the country for their own's !!!
Say to us , when you were travelling in Iran did you carry your gun off ?
Dear bassij , what are you saying about ?, all the world is witnessed of what has happened in Iran , how our innocent people have been shot and killed in the streets , how innocent women have been beaten and "RAPED" in the prisons and especially , how " IRANIAN PEOPLE" are angry with you and "ASK" for a regime change;
Now I come in your own path; I believe in God (and you couldn't imagine how my beliefs are strong) and as a muslim, I am so ashamed by what have seen in Iran and from an "ISLAMIC" republic; ALLAH AKBAR, god is great and your hatred behavours are short lifes;
Wake up my friend and smell this perfume of FREEDOM and don't forget :
ALL THE PEOPLE, ALL OVER THE WORLD, ARE WITNESSED OF WHAT YOU DO WITH " OUR " PEOPLE !

Signed : a " fanatically " pro iranian people VVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVV

[Catherine]

@ Barry
You are so right! China in no one's friend and has always occupied one of the top spots on my personal axis of evil list - an equal opportunity list with an extensive global membership ;-). In recent years China's unbridled economic growth has led them to strip other countries near and far of their natural resources through deals with like-minded, corrupt governments that largely shut the local population out from any benefits with the exception of basic infrastructure.

Chinese logging companies have been colluding with the Burmese military commanders and ethnic leaders for several years to illegally strip and export large tracts of some of the world's most ecologically important forests. They have flooded Algeria with their own cheap textiles, sold in shops run by Chinese "export workers", which has put Algeria's own textile industry out of business and robbed Algerian textile sellers of their jobs.

China's voracious demand for energy has led it to use the same tactic in African oil-producing nations. They send in their own machinery and workers to explore and exploit the reserves of African countries including Sudan, Chad, Nigeria, Angola, Algeria, Gabon, Equatorial Guinea, and the Republic of Congo. By 2045, China is projected to depend on imported oil for 45 percent of its energy needs.

China's booming manufacturing sector has also created enormous demand for aluminum, copper, nickel and iron ore, as well as oil. Beijing aggressively courts the governments of resource-producing countries with diplomacy, trade deals, debt forgiveness and aid packages. Chinese migrants are sent to work in extractive industries, construction and manufacturing, rather than creating jobs for local workers. African workers can only secure lucrative positions with Chinese companies by paying hefty bribes.

China's willingness to pay bribes and attach no conditions to aid money also undermines local and international efforts to increase transparency and good governance in these countries. Sudan is perhaps the most well-known case where China's policies impacts international efforts to fight against corruption and human rights abuse. According to Human Rights Watch, 70% to 80% of the oil revenue has been used by the government of Sudan to purchase assault helicopters, bombers, armored vehicles and small arms, as well as to train and arm the "janjaweed" group responsible for murdering more than 400,000 people in Darfur. They've had to become more discreet recently after intense international pressure, and now send peace keepers to troubled spots along with the military trainers and weapons ...

But that's just Africa - China is also busy doing deals closer to home with Russia and Iran: Russia, China, Iran Redraw Energy Map,
http://www.iranreview.org/content/view/5236/41/

PS - We'll talk about Gaza some other time ;-)

[Catherine]

Arshama,
I share your fear (post 34), too: "To me it is the dread of even more Iranian citizens being tortured, raped and killed by a regime, which does everything to survive."

It just keeps getting worse: 100 of the prisoners arrested on Ashura were transferred to solitary confinement cells in Ward 5 of Gohardasht Prison in Karaj
http://persian2english.com/?p=4326

[Megan]

Doug,

Lean on me anytime you need to gauge emotions in streets of Iran. Ask and I will do my best to describe them.

I listen to calls from Iran; I read comments on blogs from Iranians inside a prison called Iran. All and all I try to listen and hear not only what they say but also what they do not or cannot say. Iranians especially those who have not lived in western culture tend to speak in riddle. Ambiguity is a necessity for survival in Iran so one needs to listen intently and be able to read between the lines.

In general, I am very analytical, fact and data oriented and do not get emotional. The past seven months, however, I have surprised myself. I guess sleep deprivation can play strange tricks on you. The time I spent reading and writing on Iran is borrowed from my sleep time. I am lucky if I get 3 to 4 hours of sleep every 24 hours. Any time I get tired and want to just quit and go to bed, I say there is a man or a women who at this very moment is being interrogated or beaten or worse and I have to read their story, be a witness and a vessel to carry their voice.

I do not have your talent and I cannot express myself as creative people like you do. I just marvel when others masterfully reveal humanity in us.

A few months ago I came across a song through a Tweet. I do not know why but this song really tapped on some deep emotions about a place I had convinced myself very successfully that it never existed and it was only in my imagination. This darn song robbed me from my manufactured reality and took me back in time and to a place I had all forgotten, a place I once had known as my home- a place called Iran. I did not know who the vocalist was. I did not know who had written the lyrics. I did not know if the vocalist was an Iranian. All I knew it was a cry to Free Iran- a place I once knew as home. It was a call for humanity and it was a cry of help by humanity. It was as if humanity was at verge extinction and the artist was crying to be heard.

Here is that song http://twt.fm/208952, the song that shattered my manufactured reality and reintroduced me to a place I once called home. That is why I marvel humanity in art and artists.

[Arshama]

Megan,

Nice song, but unfortunately no indication of the singer. I only found one clip on Youtube, which refers to Babak: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lJYaPgpkA80
And here is the song without introductory statement: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ntu-dJmmelM

sabz bashid

[ange paris]

My dear Megan
Future is very bright and Iran will be freed and we will be so proud of ourself to have believed in steadily.
Hugs

[Plastic Bertrand]

I feel this website is filled with dreamers-the persians will have at best a civil war or anarchy -but no regime change-the majority of the downtroden want their own persian/kaffir interpretation of islam-nothing more.

[Cecil]

@ Megan,

I also encountered and heard this song on youtube months ago. Even though I'm not Iranian but I found myself in tears. I can feel the agony and pains of the Iranian people under this repressive regime. The cries of "Free My Iran" is like a cry from those martyrs who had been killed, raped and tortured.