The Latest from Iran (22 January): Breaking News

0030 GMT: Just a quick note to say that we've extended our break. We'll be back first thing Saturday morning with full updates, including the latest on "the plot against Ahmadinejad".

1845 GMT: We're going to catch our breath tonight after the excitement of today. We'll be back later for a wrap-up; in the meantime, keep sending in information and your analyses.

1820 GMT: Larijani's Opening? We'll need to get more on this statement by Ali Larijani, during Friday Prayers in Saveh, southwest of Tehran, but there is a hint in Mehr News that the Speaker of Parliament has extended a hand to different factions when it paraphrases, "Every effort should be made to foster unity in society, and everyone should refrain from divisive actions meant to drive individuals off the political stage."

The Persian-language report, significantly, devotes most of its attention not to the "unity" statement but to Larijani's critique of the Government's economic proposals.

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1735 GMT: Press TV Censors Ahmad Khatami? Surely not, but the website curiously omits any mention of Khatami's warning to Iranian protesters and the call for all to choose the side of the Supreme Leader (see 1250 and 1645 GMT). Instead, the entire report is "Cleric Says Iran Nuclear Case Important 'Test'".

1730 GMT: Journalist Leili Farhadpour has been arrested.

1645 GMT: More on That Friday Prayer (see 1250 GMT). Persian2English translates passages of Ahmad Khatami's statement, which is his usual warning to deviant demonstrators:

To our brothers who call themselves protesters, we ask, how much longer are you going to continue with your protests? Are you still going to use your destructive statements which neglect the law? Are you going to water the roots of those who try to turn any cooperative situation into a conflict? They say it was not them who created the chaos; the question is who initiated this atmosphere? How long are you going to continue your protests and annoy the people?

This passage, however, does give pause for consideration: "The group who considers themselves critics should announce where they stand. Either they are on this side [with the Supreme Leader and velayat-e-faqih] or they are on the other side. There is no third way."

That seems to echo Ayatollah Khamenei's statement earlier this week on "make your decision", but to whom was Khatami pointing the statement? Those deviant demonstrators, or the "critics within" the establishment?

1530 GMT: The German magazine Der Spiegel reports that Abed Tavancheh has been sentenced to one year in an Iranian prison for giving an interview about student protests.

1525 GMT: Hassan Rohani, an ally of Hashemi Rafsanjani, has continued to clash with President Ahmadinejad over the "failed" 4th Development Plan. After the Government ridiculed his data, Rohani has responded in detail in Peyke Iran.

1515 GMT: Earlier today (0845 GMT), we noted the manifesto of 31 Iranian expatriate intellectuals and artists: "The way out of this darkness, and of poverty and oppression caused by it, is that people make clear their relationship with tyranny through free elections, monitored by competent international institutions." This will bring "a system separating government from religion institutions, on behalf of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights, separating legislative and executive powers, and [ensuring] judicial independence".

The statement has now been picked up by BBC Persian and by Radio Farda.

1309 GMT: The Purge at Allameh Tabatabei University. We've had reports this week of academic staff being terminated or relieved of duties. Putting them together:

Political philosopher Seyed Morteza Mardiha and women’s rights activist Saba Vasefi have been banned from teaching. According to Tabnak, eight faculty in the Economics Department have been expelled, and all but one stripped of the right to teach. The salaries of two faculty members of the Department of Agriculture have been cut.

The Development Program at Allameh Tabatabei has been completely terminated.

1250 GMT: Your Tehran Friday Prayers Summary. It's Ayatollah Ahmad Khatami setting out all that's significant in religion and politics today. Behold:

When you hold an election, that's the people's opportunity to put forth their views. Then someone wins and you stop for four years. Ahmadinejad won. So, protesters, be quiet.

And the US military is occupying Haiti, which proves they are very bad.

1240 GMT: Where's Mahmoud? President Ahmadinejad has opened a factory at Khorasan Steel and dealt with the current political crisis by calling on all Iranians to have a spiritual focus and obey Allah.

1235 GMT: Human Rights Activists News Agency reports that the files of 18 more Ashura protesters have been sent to the Revolutionary Court.

1015 GMT: We have posted comments from an EA correspondent on our featured analysis, "The Plot Against President Ahmadinejad".

0845 GMT: The Opposition Manifesto. More than 30 expatriate Iranian intellectuals and artists have issued a statement in support of Mir Hossein Mousavi.

0835 GMT: Slamming the  Opposition. Last night's debate on Iranian state media was a non-debate, as MPs Ruhollah Hosseinian and Alaeddin Boroujerdi were generally in agreement. An EA correspondent describes it as a “Love-Making discussion in which both side were praising and appreciating each other".

There was some drama, however. In addition to his claim of "a plot within" to topple the Government, Hosseinian talked of the "Axis of Revolt" of Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi. He offered this advice: the Supreme Leader was too patient with the opposition --- "if we had the authority; we would have sorted it out straightaway".

0820 GMT: An Iranian activist has posted a list, with English translation, of the arrest and current state (if known) of 229 people arrested on 16 Azar (7 December) or in the Tasua-Ashura demonstrations (26-27 December).

0655 GMT: We are putting the last touches to what we believe is a significant story: a high-level plan to move against President Ahmadinejad and possibly remove him from office. As soon as that is completed, we will update on latest news. (We have now posted the story.)

The Latest from Iran (19 January): Cross-Currents

2115 GMT: Persian2English, from Ali Tavakoli, reports that the Revolutionary Court has handed down an 8 1/2-year prison sentence to student leader Majid Tavakoli, arrested on 16 Azar (7 December), for participation in an illegal gathering (5 years), propaganda against the regime (1 year), insult of the Supreme Leader (2 years), and insult of the President (6 months). In addition, Tavakoli is banned from any involvement in political activities and forbidden to leave the country for five years.

1940 GMT: Nuclear Deadlock. The Associated Press reports, from diplomatic sources, that Tehran has formally responded to the "third-party enrichment" proposal by insisting that a swap of uranium stock has to take place inside Iran.

1935 GMT: The Khatami Criticism. The website sympathetic to Mir Hossein Mousavi has posted a full summary of Mohammad Khatami's scatching critique of the Ahmadinejad Government (1545 GMT and 1749 GMT). Another notable extract is Khatami's assessment of the Parliamentary investigation on the detainee abuses at Kahrizak Prison: “This report is a sad evidence of a disaster in the Islamic Republic....Much of the truth has not been told but even this little is enough to shaken the back bone of those devoted to the establishment, Islam and Iran."

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The Latest from Iran (18 January): Firewall

1920 GMT: Rah-e Sabz is now saying that the reported closure of the Hosseinieh at Jamaran (see 1800 GMT) by Seyed Hassan Khomeini was a lie of the "conservative" press and the house of worship is now open for "people's pilgrimage".

1800 GMT: Closing Down Khomeini? The Hosseiniyeh (house of worship) of Jamaran in northern Tehran, where Ayatollah Khomeini lived, has been sealed up. The Hosseinieh was the site of the memorial service for Grand Ayatollah Montazeri and the speech of Mohammad Khatami, broken up by pro-Government activists on Tasua (26 December).

Perhaps the closing of the Hosseinieh is a wise move, because the Khomeinis seem to be a troublesome bunch these days. On Friday, Seyed Hassan Khomeini, the grandson of the Ayatollah, paid a visit to the family of Seyed Ali Mousavi, the nephew of Mir Hossein Mousavi who was killed on Ashura. Seyed Yasser Khomeini, the other grandson of Imam Khomeini, was one of the reformist clerics present.

1749 GMT: Quote of the Day. From Mohammad Khatami (see 1545 GMT): "You cannot rule a people with rage and by force."

1744 GMT: Cracking Down More and More. Alongside our specific analysis of regime attempts to break the Mousavi camp comes this wider claim from Peyke Iran: 50 political activists and 800 Ashura protesters are under heavy pressure to name friends who participated in the demonstrations. The head of Iran's judiciary, Sadegh Larijani, has given permission to detain "all" who participated in Grand Ayatollah Montazeri's memorial and Ashura rallies.

1735 GMT: More Newspaper Fun (see 0820 GMT). President Ahmadinejad's advisor for press affairs, Ali Akbar Javanfekr, has condemned earlier indifferences to the press law and promises to handle it more carefully.

Hmm.... Given that 10 publications (Sarmayeh, Hayat-e Nou, Kalameh, Farhang-e Ashti, Hemmat, Mowj-e Andisheh, Kargozaran, Etemad-e Melli, Arya, and Ham-Mihan) have been shut down recently and Rah-e-Sabz has reported that it received a warning, I'm not sure "indifference" is the term I would have used.

1725 GMT: Thanks to excellent EA sources, we have two special analyses this afternoon: a reading of the Supreme Leader's latest speech as a warning to Hashemi Rafsanjani and a look at the detentions of two key aides to Mir Hossein Mousavi, Ali Reza Beheshti and Massoud Abutalabi.

1553 GMT: The Internet Threat. Iran's police forces have continued to talk tough about their monitoring of the Internet and mobile communications. A few days after warning Iranians against any organisation of protest via e-mail or text message, the police website declared, "After the publication of pictures of Ashura day [of] rioters on the police website and in the police special edition, ... more than 40 elements of sedition were identified and arrested with the cooperation of noble Iranians."

1545 GMT: The Khatami Statement. Mohammad Khatami has made another pointed intervention today. Speaking with a group of post-election detainees who have been released, he criticised those in power who "commit violence with complete immunity" and declared, "Many lies have been told these days and many promises have been made but people see those in charge of their affairs have not done much."

Khatami also put out the message that the Green movement is operating with legal boundaries and with respect for the Islamic Republic, "People realise that many of the protesters are not ill-intentioned and their protest is reasonable."

1530 GMT: Back from a day of academic duties to catch up with news. We are working on a major story about arrests and hope to have that posted within 45 minutes.

0830 GMT: Memorials and Tributes. A series of pointed testimonies yesterday: the students of the slain professor Massoud Ali-Mohammadi have posted a video tribute, the mother of the detained student leader Majid Tavakoli spoke with Voice of America, and the father of Seyed Ali Mousavi (the nephew of Mir Hossein Mousavi killed on Ashura) has talked about his son's death.

/(The Voice of America programme also includes an interesting discussion on tensions within the regime.)

0820 GMT: In the Newspaper World.... Curious develpments with the banning of three weeklies --- Mowj-e Andisheh, Hemmat, and Farhang-e Ashti --- by Iranian authorities.

The curiosity lies not in the bans, which are a frequent occurrence, but in the immediate reincarnation of Hemmat 2. With Hemmat reportedly suspended for publishing about the "friends of Hashemi Rafsanjani", its successor considers the friends of Rafsanjani and of the Supreme Leader.

Brighter minds than mine will have to sort this one out.

0815 GMT: A Grand Ayatollah and the "Secular Greens". The 15-p0int manifesto of the Secular Green Movement continues to gather signatories. Interesting to see this name among them: Grand Ayatollah Seyyed Hossein Kazemeyni Boroujerdi, who has called for separation of religion and government and who --- with many of his followers --- was arrested in 2006.

0810 GMT: Remembering, Living Ashura. The blogger Persian Umpire returns, having found an Internet connection, with a first-hand account of the events of Tasua and Ashura (26-27 December).

0735 GMT: We've noted, in our morning analysis, the current of opinion "within the Establishment" against the Ahmadinejad. We're not saying it's time for the President to pack his bags, but the situation is far from settled.

Ahmadinejad's most notable statement on Monday was another jump away from the domestic arena. He used a visit from Georgian Foreign Minister Grigol Vashadze to take a swipe at the "West", declaring that NATO's eastward expansion does not serve the interests of the countries in the region. (Which tells you that the Foreign Minister was just a prop, since Georgia has been pressing for that expansion --- remember the background to the 2008 Georgia-Russia conflict?)

On the economic front, however, there may be another current against the President. The Tehran Times --- not, I hasten to add, an opposition publication --- has what appears to be an extraordinary declaration from Mohsen Bahrami-Arz-Aqdas, the chairman of the Tehran Chamber of Commerce: foreign investments in Iran tumbled 96 percent in the Iranian calendar year 1387 (March 2008-March 2009).

In the face of the economic sitaution, Bahrami-Arz-Aqdas said the Parliament should postpone Ahmadinejad's 5-Year Development Plan until next year, especially given the lack of goals and vagueness in the document.
Bahrami added that the 10 percent growth cited in the plan requires the investment which continues to decline.

The Government's cross-current against this continued unsettling news? More threats, more trials. Claimed footage of the hearing for two "mohareb" (war against God) defendants has now emerged.

UPDATED Iran Video & Translation: Dr Etaat's Opposition On State Media (14 January --- Parts 1 and 2)

We have now posted Part 3 of the video, with translation:

There has been a massive buzz about the appearance by Dr Javad Etaat, a professor of political science at Shahid Behesti University, on Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting. Possibly in response to criticism that it has been one-sided in post-election coverage, IRIB has headlined a series of debates. It may not have bargained, however, for the intensity of Etaat's comments, made in his discussion with "conservative" MP Ali Reza Zakani.

Iran Video & Translation: Dr Etaat’s Opposition On State Media (14 January — Part 3)

Here are Parts 1 and 2 of the exchange, with extracts translated by the good people at the new website The Flying Carpet Institute.Further parts of the video are available via the same YouTube link, and a translation of Part 2 is promised tomorrow by our Flying Carpet friends.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=06UU4IFDKmA[/youtube]

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7eE9bs25kLQ[/youtube]

PART 1

*I was once invited to hold a speech about the attempt to topple Iran political system with a Velvet Revolution. But we all know that Velvet Revolutions always occur in dictatorships. So basically when you say that some forces are planning to make a Velvet Revolution, you have indirectly admitted that your system is not democratic.



When elections, discussions and competition take place in a free atmosphere, why should people want to make a revolution? People make revolutions maybe only every hundred years and only then when they are totally fed up with the situation. It doesn’t matter whether the revolution is a violent, velvet, coloured, white, black, red yellow. So when the Islamic Republic talks about Velvet Revolution, there is an unintended confession that Iran is not a free country and people can’t achieve their goals through the institutions the system offers. So the result is that people want to make a revolution.

*As an expert of political issues I’m disappointed by IRIB’s current policies.

*Regarding the tearing of Imam Khomeini’s portrait: Someone tore his portrait…it’s not even clear who it was. But IRIB broadcast this scene over and over again. We all know that tearing Khomeini’s portrait is an insult to him, but what about attacking his former residense (Beyte Emam) during Tasua (26 December), when former president (Mohammad) Khatami was holding a speech? Isn’t that illegal? Isn’t that an insult to the Imam?

There are not many honourable men like Khatami who love Islam, the revolution and the constitution, like the way he does. But still he was attacked by armed thugs. Why did these people do that? Why is it forbidden to express a different view? Why wasn’t he allowed to interprete the historic Ashura event the way he wanted?

It’s a fact that Khatami is critical to many aspects of the regime, but it’s an insult to this revolution that, 30 years after this system was established, people dare to attack other people with batons and knives. Unfortunately IRIB encourages this kind of behaviour.

*Regarding Ashura: Everyone loves Imam Hossein (3rd Imam of Shi'a Islam), no matter if this person is a Jew, Christian, Sunni, or Shiite. So if someone committed a misconduct during Ashura, be sure that people will punish him. If singing and clapping is a misconduct during Ashura, then beating and killing people is a much more worse act. Now look how...we are ruling!

*IRIB unfortunately had a negative role in all these [developments]. How do you want the people to express their dissatisfaction with current events if you don’t offer them a fair platform? IRIB must think about that criticism. You even admitted that certain people refused to take part in your past shows, because they don’t trust the IRIB. I was one of those people but I wanted to use the rare opportunity to express my dissatisfaction.

Part 2

*You say that we prepared the ground for riots. I believe that it’s not right to generalize. The number of opponents of the government is far higher than the number of those you see on the streets protesting. You have to consider that you haven’t even permitted one of those past street rallies. On 25th Khordad (15 June), for example, people came to the streets even though there was no official call from the opposition to demonstrate. But still two to three million Iranians took the streets. If you had permitted the marches, a guaranteed right according to the Constitution of the Islamic Republic, you can be sure that the number of the protesters would be much, much higher than what you have witnessed on that day.

*You always mention law but you don’t understand that your very own acts are against the law. Our Constitution (Article 27) says, “Public gatherings and marches may be freely held, provided arms are not carried and that they are not detrimental to the fundamental principles of Islam.” We often asked you to allow us to hold rallies. By the way, we also asked for a permission to publicly protest against the tearing of the Imam’s portrait.

The Green movement condemns any kind of violence, and if a minority uses violence, then it’s wrong to say all the protesters are violent rioters. One of the representatives of the government once said that people who want to protest on the streets must also provide security by themselves. But I ask you: Why do we pay the police? They are paid to protect the people and offer general security in the society!

*In the past 5 years that your government ruled the country, you did things that created an atmosphere of dissatisfaction.

*Article 6 and Article 56 of the Constitution guarantee people’s sovereignty.

*I quote Article 177: The contents of the Articles of the Constitution related to the Islamic character of the political system; the basis of all the rules and regulations according to Islamic criteria; the religious footing; the objectives of the Islamic Republic of Iran; the democratic character of the government[…]are unalterable.

*I quote Article 56: Absolute sovereignty over the world and man belongs to God, and it is He who has made man master of his own social destiny. No one can deprive man of this divine right, nor subordinate it to the vested interests of a particular individual or group. The people are to exercise this divine right in the manner specified in the following articles.*

*If you had acknowledged people’s sovereignty as it is described in the Constitution in the first place, no one would criticize you today. You rejected about 2400 potential candidates for the last parliamentary elections to create your own majority, and now you wonder why people are unhappy with the system. I don’t want to talk about the elections that were held in our country in the past. The question is why the Guardian Council misinterprets the constitution.*

*I’ll quote Article 44 of the constitution: “The economy of the Islamic Republic of Iran is to consist of three sectors: state, cooperative, and private, and is to be based on systematic and sound planning. The state sector is to include all large-scale and mother industries, foreign trade, major minerals, banking, insurance, power generation, dams and large-scale irrigation networks, radio and television, post, telegraph and telephone services, aviation, shipping, roads, railroads, and the like; all these will be publicly owned and administered by the State.”

But your government privatized almost all of those sectors! Then, when it comes to radio and television, you say that this sector must be controlled by the state! Why is that the case? Why does the Guardian Council say that the privatisation of the IRIB is forbidden? You see, you truly debase the people by your acts. And still you wonder why people are unhappy and want to protest.

*You close down newspapers and deny people’s right to criticize.

*Not only that….Your government is also incompetent when it comes to economic matters….The Government's wrong policies created a stunningly high inflation. In the eight years of Khatami’s government, the price for meat was about 3000 – 3700 Tomans. Are you aware that now the price for meat is 18,000 Tomans?…The same with real estate….

*Accept that people are opposing you because you failed in almost every field.

*I will now tell a story about the rule of Imam Ali to show you the gap between the quality of your rule and Ali’s: Once the “Khavaresh” who opposed Ali’s rule disrupted one of Ali’s sermons and insulted him in the mosque. But Ali said: "You are allowed to stay in the mosque and state your dissatisfaction, and as long you don’t use your sword we won’t punish you.”*

* But you closed down the mosque [in Shiraz] of Ayatollah Dastgheib, even though he is a Marja (senior cleric). You see the gap between your rule and Imam Ali’s!

Iran: Letter from Tehran "The Regime is Over"

An EA reader has passed us this letter from a friend in Tehran, received yesterday. We post it as it is written, with no editing:

Sorry for taking so long to write to you, I’ve been lying low - I wasn’t really sure whether it was safe for me to write or not, and I just wanted to be careful.

Do you remember Khatami being attacked during Moharram [the assault in Jamaran on Tasua, 26 December --- see video]? We happened to be visiting some friends who live near there and you’ll never believe it but we virtually had a ringside view!

Things are definitely changing here, remember I told you about the last demonstration I had seen in October, and the brutality of the basij etc. Well this time it almost seemed as if some of the attackers really didn’t want to be there! It seems that some of them are getting disillusioned with it all.

The regime is over - it’s just a matter of time! They really can’t last much longer.

Even in the time since I moved back here last year I can sense the change. The hardliners are getting quieter by the day --- indeed I am increasingly hearing them not just criticizing the regime, but actually sympathizing with the movement. They’ve gone from supporting the regime, to silence, to criticism, to support for the opposition in a few short months. Amazingly we are now seeing some of the very religious people beginning to turn away from the Supreme Leader, and even blame him for the younger generation turning away from Islam.

As I told you before families are divided, and on occasion I see people who would have traditionally been much more conservative and even pro-regime, now criticizing the regime and as I say even the SL! This was unheard of even a few months ago.

I get the sense that even among the conservatives they are fighting among themselves! The feeling is that once the economy collapses it will definitely be the end of the regime, and the word on the street is that that is not far away. Every other factor for regime change is in place, and it seems that the opposition’s support grows every day.