The Latest from Iran (30 January): Threat

2355 GMT: Just checking in to say we have posted a video of a Tehran University academic defending Thursday's executions of Mohammad Reza Ali Zamani and Arash Rahmanipour.

1910 GMT: We're taking an evening break. We may be back for a late-night wrap-up. If not, all the latest news will open our Sunday updates.

NEW Latest Iran Video: Defending the Executions (30 January)
NEW Iran Document: Mousavi-Karroubi Declaration on Rights and 22 Bahman (30 January)
NEW Iran Patriotism Special: Wiping the Green From The Flag
The Latest from Iran (29 January): Sideshows and Main Events

1900 GMT: Pressure on Ahmadinejad. The "conservative" campaign against the President's advisors has not ceased. The high-profile member of Parliament Ahmad Tavakoli has attacked the controversial Deputy Minister of Culture, Mo-Amin Ramin, and Ahmadinejad aide Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai.

1855 GMT: Rah-e-Sabz reports that Ali Akbar Nategh-Nouri, Hassan Rohani, and Ayatollah Mohammad Emami-Kashani have not attended meetings of the Combatant Clergy Association since the June election.

1845 GMT: On the Economic Front. Raja News reports that a 20-day ultimatum has been given to 100 people, most of them well-connected, who have not repaid $20 billion in funds from national banks. The article has a lengthy discussion of the reasons for this uncontrolled spending and problems in gettng the money back.

The website also quotes Arsalan Fathipour, chief of parliament's economic commission, that $15 billion of National Development Funds has been given to banks.

1840 GMT: Reza Mahabadian, children's rights activist & member of the Assembly of Iranian Writers, has reportedly been arrested.

1835 GMT: For the second week in a row, family members of the martyrs of 7-Tir, the terrorist attack in the early days of the Islamic Revolution that killed 72 people including Ayatollah Mohammad Beheshti, held a prayer ceremony at the grave of Ayatollah Beheshti to protest the detention of his son, Alireza Beheshti, a key advisor to Mir Hossein Mousavi.

1800 GMT: The Regime's Accusations. An Iranian activist has posted a summary of the allegations against one of the Ashura defendants in today's trial:

Participation in gatherings and collusion in acts against national security. Insulting the Leader by sending e-mail to the International [Criminal] Court in The Hague, propaganda against Islamic Republic. Soft war, membership in Facebook and [Iranian Web portal] Balatarin, mass distribution of news to foreign media outlets. Participation in illegal protests...and preparation and forwarding a complaint against the honorable Leader to the World Court in the Hague.

The defendant's testimony:

I did participate in illegal protests...and did chant slogans against the regime. After the speech of the honourable Leader, I participated in three more protests in my car only and honked the horn. I was present in front of Laleh Park in the afternoon of Ashura (27 December) only as an observer. I read the news on sites like Balatarin and did send information and news to foreign news outlets. The first three weeks after the election I did chant Allah-O-Akbar (God is Great) on my rooftop. I did sent about 100 SMS (text messages) informing people of gatherings on 4 November and 7 December.

I was a member on Mohsen Sazegara's news site. Thinking because he was an ex-member of the establishment and is a dissident now, I believed him saying there was cheating in the election.

Regarding the letter to the World Court in the Hague, the petition was published on Balatarin site. I did sign this petition and encouraged my friends to sign it.

1755 GMT: We have posted a full summary and quotes from today's meeting between Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi about the rights of the people and the marches on 22 Bahman (11 February).

1745 GMT: Rah-e-Sabz reports that 40 people were arrested at a 40th Day memorial service for Grand Ayatollah Montazeri yesterday. Eight are still detained.

1725 GMT: Labour News. The Flying Carpet Institute reports that Reza Rakhshan, a leader of Haft Tapeh Sugar Cane Workers’ Syndicate was released on 19 January after 17 days of detention. Rakhshan was freed on $150,000 bail money—a hefty sum for a workers’ family.

1710 GMT: "Confessions". Back from a break to learn more about the regime's manoeuvres with the threats and trials. An Iranian activist reports that, on Wednesday night, Iranian television featured the "confessions" of four post-election detainees: Mahmod Dowlatabadi, Mehdi Saiedi, Abbas Balikhani, and Borzo Kamrani. The activist considers that the show may be setting up the "mohareb" (war against God) charges and executions.

More on the charges in the trial of Ashura detainees today (see 1415 and 0945 GMT): looks like subscribing to the newsletter of supporters of IRGC founder and current regime critic Mohsen Sazegara constitutes a threat to national security.

1415 GMT: The Great Regime Change Conspiracy. Rah-e-Sabz has a lengthy account of today's trial of 16 Ashura detainees. Amidst the statements of the defendants, not only the BBC and CNN but also Balatarin, the Iranian portal for Web stories, and Facebook emerges as evil instigators of violence against the Iranian Government.

1405 GMT: Rafsanjani's Balancing Act. The Los Angeles Times, noting the statement from Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi (see 1105 GMT) calling on their supporters to join 22 Bahman rallies, also picks up the more cautious declaration from Hashemi Rafsanjani:

[Rafsanjani] called on Iranians "of all groups and camps" to turn out en masse for the holiday, but warned that any violence will serve the interests of Tehran's "enemies."

"I invite all people and political camps across the country to march on 22 Bahman and renew their allegiance to the Islamic Republic despite certain differences of opinion," he said in an address to the powerful Expediency Council.

1330 GMT: Blair and Iran. I had intended to refrain from comment until Monday on the former Prime Minister's testimony to the British enquiry into the 2003 Iraq War --- anger needs to subside in favour of reflection. (We have posted, however, a 2005 item from our archives which pointed to Blair's agreement --- in a March 2002 meeting with then-US Vice President Dick Cheney --- to join the US in a military invasion for "regime change".)

That said, The Guardian of London sizes up Blair's rather extraordinary attempt to avoid blame for Iraq 2003 by putting forth an Iran 2010:

Tony Blair has been accused of warmongering spin for claiming that western powers might be forced to invade Iran because it poses as serious a threat as Saddam Hussein.

Sir Richard Dalton, a former British ambassador to Iran, accused Blair of trying to make confrontation with Iran an electoral issue after the former prime minister repeatedly singled out its Islamic regime as a global threat in his evidence to the Iraq war inquiry yesterday.

Blair said many of the arguments that led him to confront the "profoundly wicked, almost psychopathic" Saddam Hussein seven years ago now applied to the regime in Tehran.

"We face the same problem about Iran today," he told the Chilcot inquiry....

"One result of Tony Blair's intervention on Iran – he mentioned Iran 58 times – is to put the question of confronting Iran into play in the election," [Dalton] told the BBC Radio 4 Today programme.

"We need to be much clearer, as voters, with our politicians and with our candidates that we expect a different behaviour and a greater integrity in our democracy next time."

The silver lining in yesterday's travesty is that the illusions and delusions of Blair's approach to Iraq --- whether or not one agrees that military action was necessary for regime change --- are exposed by his easy analogies with today's situation and his equally-easy implication that war is a simple answer. And it is a 2nd silver lining that there is no one in the current British Government who shares that illusionary/delusionary approach to Iran 2010.

1215 GMT: Press TV has published its English-language report of today's trial, recycling the points made in Iranian state media and summarised below.

1105 GMT: Taking a Stand. Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi, after meeting this morning, have expressed sorrow over Thursday's executions, denounced other sentences and the "continuation of the current situation", and called on their supporters to participate in rallies on 22 Bahman (11 February).

With the statement, Mousavi and Karroubi have gone beyond their positions on Ashura (27 December). On that occasion, neither made a call for public demonstrations.

0945 GMT: The Trial. IRNA's website simply lists the charges against each of the 16 defendants. Everything from "support of terrorism" to "Communist tendencies" makes an appearance. Significantly,as previewed by Iranian officials this week, five of the 16 are charged with mohareb (war against God), a crime which carries the death penalty.

Fars' report focuses on the prosecution's opening statement, headlining the "terror training" abroad for the protesters. Here is an example of such training: the well-known terrorist centre The Brookings Institution in Washington apparently put out a report, a few months before Iran's Presidential election, setting out economic strategies.

0930 GMT: Threat. It is no pleasure to report how quickly both our headline and our morning analysis have been upheld by the regime this morning: "Iran Puts 16 Protesters on Trial". Both the Islamic Republic News Agency and Press TV feature the hearing for demonstrators arrested on Ashura (27 December), with the prosecution putting out the ritual rhetoric: "The defendants have confessed to spying, planning bomb attacks and damaging public and private properties....The defendants sent videos on the clashes between protesters and Iranian police to the ''foreign hostile networks."

0800 GMT: While catching up with this morning's news, we have posted a special analysis of the latest regime move (indeed, gamble), "We Will Kill You". We also have published the English translation of the questions put by the reformist Islamic Iran Participation Front to Iran's head of judiciary, Sadegh Larijani, over the executions of Mohammad Reza Ali Zamani and Arash Rahmanipour.

Iran's Executions: The Reformist Participation Front Questions to Sadegh Larijani

On Friday, the leading reformist group, the Islamic Iran Participation Front, wrote to the head of Iran's judiciary, Sadegh Larijani, seeking answers over the executions of Mohammad Reza Ali Zamani and Arash Ahmadipour.



From the Facebook page supporting Mir Hossein Mousavi, via The Flying Carpet Institute:

Dear Mr. Larijani, the honorable Head of the Judiciary,

The news of the execution of two prisoners accused of being Moharebs warriors against God) created a spark of surprise and astonishment amongst the nation of Iran. During a time when the political atmosphere is one of fervent hope to wipe out the dark clouds of hatred and vengeance, this faulty action by the judiciary system was only further proof that there is no willingness and desire to create calm in the country’s political atmosphere.

Iran Analysis: The Regime’s Ultimate Challenge “We Will Kill You”

The judiciary, already accused of political maneuvering and ignoring justice and fairness because of its illegal and doubtful behavior towards reputable political forces arrested and jailed unfairly after the elections, will now be questioned even more after issuing suspicious death sentences for nine people and hastily executing two others.


A death sentence is regretful regardless of whom it is issued against, or whether or not that person deserves the punishment or is guilty of the crime. Even though we have no intellectual or actual kinship with these people, we are worried that the judiciary system is under the influence of forces that continue to move towards ordering further bloodshed and executions.

You are well aware that the death sentence is the only sentence that is irreversible. The legislators have therefore deliberately and knowingly created bureaucracy intended to lengthen the process between issuing and implementing a sentence in order to minimize any possible errors and unfair sentencing. The hasty executions of Mr. Rahmanipour and Mr. Alizamani have created much ambiguity and many open questions.

These two young men were naturally executed with your approval. In order to provide clarity to a highly inflamed public --- in particular the supporters of the Islamic Revolution, who view this type of behavior against Islamic principles --- to enlighten the public and eliminate any unnecessary advertising and propaganda against the system, and, more importantly, to protect the dignity of the judiciary and make sure that it is not compromised, it is important that you respond to the myriad of open questions which have been raised, some of which we will present in this letter.

If these sentences were fair and based on the law then calm will return to the political atmosphere. If God forbid, it is determined that unknowingly, these sentences were unfair and wrong, then you need to make it clear who will take responsibility for this heinous act, so that we eliminate the need to create committees such as those created to deal with the crimes at Kahrizak [Prison, where post-election detainees were abused and killed].

1) When were these individuals arrested? What was the reason for their arrests?

2) What was the logic for trying these individuals in the courts dealing with the aftermath of the elections, when they were clearly arrested a few weeks before the elections?

3) How were confessions obtained from them? In addition to their confessions, what other valid evidence was used to document their crimes?

4) Were fair judiciary procedures observed in their proceedings? Did they have access to legal representation? Were their lawyers allowed to visit them? Were their lawyers provided with sufficient time to review their case?

5) Is there any validity to the claims that the defendants were encouraged by interrogators to provide false confessions with the promise of lighter sentences? If true, does this not undermine the foundation of such a court?

6) Can the confessions given at the show trials, directed by those who committed the crimes at Kahrizak and who were also responsible for interrogating the accused, be the basis for issuing such heavy sentences?

7) Was the minimum Islamic compassion shown towards the accused, allowing them to meet with their families one last time before their execution?

Mr. Larijani, these questions and many more that have remained unanswered, have led the public to believe that the issuance and implementation of these sentences had no legal basis, was politically motivated and without logic and, God forbid, used to create political pressure and generate fear amongst the nation.

Mr. Larijani, we are aware that many of the penal codes based on constitutional principles were ignored in the the issuance and implementation of these sentences, in particular Rules 168, 165, 38, 35, 32. The lack of response to these ambiguities will cause irreparable damages to the country and the system.

"I will share the truth with you / You can either learn from my words or take offense"

The Islamic Iran Participation Front
29 Jan 2010

Iran Document: Karroubi Maintains the Pressure (28 January)

Yet another forthright declaration comes from Mehdi Karroubi in an interview with his website Saham News today, following his detailed statement to a British newspaper on Wednesday.

In case anyone is still unclear, Karroubi hammers home the message: Ahmadinejad is an illegitimate and irresponsible "President". And those who back him, not those who oppose him, have betrayed the Islamic Republic. (Supreme Leader, what say you?)

Translation from the Facebook page supporting Mir Hossein Mousavi, and passed on by The Flying Carpet Institute:

SAHAM: Mr. Karroubi, Recently there was news from you regarding the status of Ahmadinejad’s administration that was followed by different interpretations. The most important interpretation that bothered many people was the idea of your retreat from and overturning of your position after the election. Did your remark mean retreating and entering a new phase?

Iran Document/Analysis: Karroubi’s Statement on the Political Situation (27 January)
Latest Iran Video: When Karroubi Met Fars (25 January)
Iran & Karroubi: Why This is “Much Ado About Something”
The Latest from Iran (28 January): Trouble Brewing

KARROUBI: It is really strange for me that the experts misunderstood my clear and blunt remark. I ask the experts to pay attention to the introduction and conclusion of my remark.

I have emphasised my criticism over the problems with the election and its results which were the outcome of fraud and engineering OF the votes and continue to do so. However, Mr. Ahmadinejad is the head of the administration, whom despite all the protests has taken the power in the Executive Branch and thus must be accountable for his actions. Currently everyone, inside and outside [the country], in favour of him or in opposition, calls him the head of the establishment’s administration, meaning the one who controls the Executive Branch. Therefore, they demand [from him] that which s the responsibility of the head of the Executive Branch.


This is not something new and does not mean retreating from the previous position at all. This is just like other countries that, when someone takes the power, regardless of how, he/she is called with the relevant title. The protestors’ and my criticism about the legitimacy of this power is still intact, and I still believe that the people’s right to determine their fate was ignored in the 10th presidential election. If the election had been held correctly and the Guardian Council had really safeguarded the constitution, the outcome would have been different and the country and people would not have paid such cost. As I have said before, since this administration has not risen from the people’s vote, it cannot continue with its work.

SAHAM: You criticized the Guardian Council but Mr. Jannati [Ayatollah Jannati, head of the Guardian Council] in his latest remarks, has said that the Islamic Republic conducted one of the healthiest elections. He called the claim of fraud in election by people inside and outside the country ridiculous and stupid and said those people have sold themselves and have committed a betrayal that no one has done before. What is your opinion about these remarks that are a clear insult to this country’s nation and its senior figures?

KARROUBI: I read Mr. Jannati’s remarks too.

It is close to thirty years that Mr. Jannati [Editor: Note Karroubi, like the questioner, uses "Mr Jannati", diminishing Jannati's clerical status] has been in the Guardian Council and for many years he has been the General Secretary of this council and has had a decisive role there.

The talent of Mr. Jannati and his friends has been to turn the legal stature of this council to this pitiful situation. He considers the claims of fraud in election ridiculous and calls it betraying the country, but who is that does not know the one who betrayed this revolution, the martyr’s blood, Imam [Khomeini], and the dear people of Iran is he himself that has brought the country and the revolution to a point that even funerals are held with the presence of the riot police and plainclothes militia?

Pre-approving candidates in the elections and extensively disqualifying this country’s experts in various elections such as for the Assembly of Experts, the Parliament and the Presidential election, making up results as they please, and even changing results after the announcement of them are some of his talents. These betrayals are not only evident to him but also to the people.

Mr. Jannati, today the cry of Iranian people is the response to your betrayal of the people’s votes, the Constitution and Imam Khomeini’s and martyrs’ ideas by making the principle of the election meaningless and slaughtering the Republic.

Iran & Karroubi: Why This is "Much Ado About Something"

Yesterday afternoon, the high-profile blog Babylon & Beyond declared that the attention given to Mehdi Karroubi's Monday statement about the legitimacy of the Ahmadinejad Government, as decreed by "Mr Khamenei", was "Much Ado About Nothing".

The blog was useful in correcting some key information, for example, quoting a Tehran analyst, "Karroubi [has] not budged at all. Karroubi said that the government is the government of the system. So it does not imply he has recognized it." However, because of its focus in taking apart the wayward media coverage of the statement --- a coverage corrected by the better analysts of the complexities of Iran's internal crisis --- it missed the more important point:

This is definitely Much Ado About Something.

Iran: Rafsanjani Chooses A Side?
Iran Special Analysis: What Karroubi’s Statement on “Mr Khamenei”/”Head of Government” Means
Latest Iran Audio: Hossein Karroubi on His Father’s Statement (25 January)
Iran Snap Analysis: The Karroubi and Khatami Manoeuvres

Karroubi may or may not have intended to stake out a direct challenge to the Government and regime when he met the large group of reporters and onlookers on Monday. But, once Fars News pushed him with the false claim that he had recognised "President" Ahmadinejad, he and his closest advisors chose to make a stand. Even the initial response given at the conference, with its "Mr Khamenei" and description of Ahmadinejad as the "head of the government of the regime", was a put-down, but throughout Monday and Tuesday, the clarifications got tougher and tougher in their tone and intentions.


The Facebook site supporting Mir Hossein Mousavi and The Flying Carpet Institute have tracked Karroubi's course, set out by his website Saham News, with a series of English translations. This was Karroubi's son Mohammad Taghi yesterday:

Mehdi Karroubi is an honest and brave man who won’t sell his eternal life and people’s love, for the sake of this short material life. If there was a case of compromise or ignoring the events, he would have not tolerated all the insults, inhuman attacks and assassination threats for seven months. Be sure that if there is any news that Mehdi Karoubi would know about, he will announce that truthfully and bluntly. There is no compromise and there is no fear.

Legitimacy and reality are two separate issues. In order to gain legitimacy in any case there is the need to satisfy certain conditions. Mehdi Karroubi have repeatedly said this since the first day [after the election] until today that he does not accept that the result of the election was based on the votes casted by the people. Even yesterday he emphasised that there are issues with the results. In his views the results of the election were fabricated. But following the confirmation by the Guardian Council and the Supreme Leader according to the law, Ahmadinejad became the head of the administration, whether we like it or not.

The head of the administration gives the budget and makes decisions that influence our lives, we cannot deny this reality. But to gain recognition and legitimacy, it is needed to satisfy certain conditions and the protestors believe those conditions were not met.

Then there was Karroubi himself, in his latest statement:

With the passing of time, I become even more convinced of the extensive manipulations and fraud that took place in the recent elections, as every day we receive new information that demonstrates the regrettable nature in which the authorities handled the trust given to them by the people of Iran....

Ask yourself what were the desires and demands of the the people who spontaneously came to the streets in such large numbers after the election? What were the demands of the 3 million people who roared in the streets from Imam Hossein to Azadi Square, with their silent march, without any form of advertising or propaganda motivating them to attend? Should the response to a nation who took to the streets with such noble intentions have been batons, tear gas and gun shots? Should our dear youth who dared ask “Where is our Vote?” within the framework of the law have faced violence and death at Kahrizak and other prisons?”

We should tell those responsible for these atrocities “How do you expect the people of Iran to accept your one sided claims regarding the election when it is so evident that you lie? Did some of you not have the audacity to suggest that these young people had lost their lives to meningitis? Would you have ever admitted to the occurrence of these crimes had it not been for persistent and defiant cries & demands by myself, Mr. Mousavi and the brave nation of Iran?

Just as important, Karroubi is not alone. Zahra Rahnavard, the wife of Mir Hossein Mousavi and an important political figure in her own right, was forceful and eloquent when she declare, We neither recognise Ahmadinejad’s administration [as a legitimate government] nor compromise but we are honestly following people’s rights and demands….We have put our hearts as our shields and we are ready for any bullet, attack or assassination."

Consider both the scope and timing of this episode. With the passage of month, the regime had been successful in moving attention away from June's Presidential election, even as the general notion of opposition to the "system" was being debated amongst the opposition. Of course, no protester was recognising Ahmadinejad, but the specific issues in play were now injustices and the abuses of detainees.

The effect of the last 48 hours has been to resurrect the electoral, as well as the political and judicial, legitimacy of Ahmadinejad. And that in turn raises an interesting intersection: while the "conservative" opposition to the President does not want to revisit June, they do want to take down Ahmadinejad's allies and curb his authority. So now "the head of the government of the regime" faces a renewed challenge from multiple direcitons.

And all of this occurs in what was supposed to be the quieter water between Ashura and the commemoration of the Islamic Revolution's anniversary (1-11 February). Without taking to the streets, even as many of its leading activists have been swept up in arrests, the opposition has taken the initiative.

None of this should be read as a coordinated victory. Some in the Green movement, after the initial confusion over Monday's statement, are still distrustful and even disdainful of "Obi-Wan Karroubi", and there is still uncertainty over the relationship between Karroubi and Mohammad Khatami. I suspect, however, that both of these tensions will diminish in the next week.

It also remains to be seen whether this challenge, which Karroubi is again framing as one against the Government rather the system despite his "Mr Khamenei" jibe, will be expanded to take on the Supreme Leader. It is possible, however, that this question --- again because of the most recent developments --- can be put behind the immediate confrontation.

Legitimacy. That is what the fight was over in June. And 7 1/2 months, it is still the battleground. "President" Ahmadinejad can run, but this week will re-establish that he cannot hide.

UPDATED Iran Special Analysis: What Karroubi's Statement on "Mr Khamenei"/"Head of Government" Means

UPDATE 1555 GMT: Karroubi Clarifies, Repeats, Challenges. From The Flying Carpet Institute, via the Facebook site linked to Mir Hossein Mousavi and Saham News:
Mehdi Karoubi, in a meeting with a group of prominent political figures including some of the leaders of reformist parties said:

“Although today they have shut down newspapers, filtered websites, imprisoned many of our dear friends, closed down the office of [reformist] parties including the Etemade Melli office and even my personal office, although they fired shots at my car, although some are threatening everyday and are insulting Mir Hossein Mousavi, me and the great nation of Iran in every way possible and take our words out of content, but I am firmly announcing that I never compromise over people’s rights and one of the main rights of this nation is their votes that they casted in the ballot boxes while trusting the authorities; and I will be with the people till the very end and will try for holding free elections and eliminating current obstacles."

"I will announce my detailed views regarding the principles of the Islamic Revolution, defending people’s rights and the necessity for holding free elections to the noble nation of Iran soon.”

UPDATE 0900 GMT: Persian2English has published a translation of the Karroubi "clarification" carried on Rah-e-Sabz last night. This was one of the key pieces of evidence behind our analysis, as the Karroubi camp deliberately "fed" this information to a trusted reporter to ensure the widest dissemination:

"It was reported by Fars News, Iran’s official news agency, that Mehdi Karoubi has officially recognized the status of Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

Mr. Mojtaba Vahedi, advisor for Mehdi Karoubi responded to such claims. Talking to a JARAS reporter, he said: “I talked to Mr. Karoubi and he claims that Mr. Abu-Torabi has uttered some words that are not true.”

According to the advisor, Mr. Karoubi talked in detail about the rigged election. Following his speech, Karoubi explained, “A few reporters gathered around and asked a few questions. I told them that the government has been sworn in and has the responsibility to respond to the people’s needs. In the same interview I stressed that there has been a rigging in the election and I stand by my words. I am not so whimsy to retreat because of insults and threats. But people have daily needs that the residing government needs to respond to. I also told an English paper that they can rest assured that Ahmadinejad’s government will not last four years.”

Karoubi’s last words were: “My words are the words of the nation: where is our vote?”

--
EA staff had a conference late last night to go over all the information we have --- from websites and sources inside Iran --- on Mehdi Karroubi's statement, reflecting on the Presidential election and his acceptance of Mr Ahmadinejad as the "head of the government of the regime" because it had been decreed by "Mr Khamenei".

We are watching for further developments today and may revise our analysis, however, for now, here is our reading:

Iran Snap Analysis: The Karroubi and Khatami Manoeuvres
The Latest from Iran (26 January): Now for the Follow-Up….
The Latest from Iran (25 January): Who Makes A Move Today?

1. KARROUBI HAS TAKEN A STAND AGAINST THE "PRESIDENT" AND THE SUPREME LEADER

We are treating the statement put out on Karroubi's website, Saham News, as the cleric's primary line. (We note the interviews given by Hossein Karroubi to a series of reporters, including Radio Farda, BBC Persian, and Associated Press, but there are ambiguities and some confusion in how those interviews are being written up.) This is the key line:

Due to the fact that Mr Khamenei has 'confirmed/given legal validity to the decree which stated that Ahmadinejad has been elected, for this reason, I consider him [Mr Ahmadinejad] to be the 'head of the government of this regime'.

Ahmadinejad is not the President and holds his position not by the will of the voters but the pronouncement of Ayatollah Khamenei. He thus does not have legitimacy. (The most important follow-up to the Saham News statement is a story fed to Rah-e-Sabz, in which Karroubi repeated that he stood with the people and said he did not expect Ahmadinejad to last four years.)

And it's not the Supreme Leader but "Mr Khamenei". That is not a slip, because the statement has been unchanged on Saham News for hours. And that is not respect but an insult.

2. DID KARROUBI INTEND TO TAKE THIS STAND?

This is still not clear, given the chain of events. The confusing series of events started when Karroubi spoke with a group of reporters Monday morning. What he did not anticipate was that Fars News, having asked the question whether Karroubi accepted that the June Presidential election was legal, printed his answer as a recognition of Ahmadinejad as "the President". So, in one sense, Hossein Karroubi's series of interviews throughout the day and even the Saham News statement were "damage control", protecting his father against charges that he had sold out to the regime.

"Damage control", however, did not require that Karroubi take his political shots at Mr Khamenei and "the head of the government of the regime". So whether or not the cleric started the morning with a plan for a fight or whether he was bumped into it by the Fars episode, the outcome is the same.

3. THIS HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH THE CHALLENGE OF THE "ESTABLISHMENT WITHIN".

My first attempt at analysis connected the Karroubi manoeuvre with the initiative by Ali Larijani-Mohsen Rezaei-Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf to curb or even topple Ahmadinejad. Just forget I wrote that --- I was wrong.

4. BUT THIS DOES DISTANCE KARROUBI FROM KHATAMI

The interesting sub-plot today has been obvious "clear blue water" between Mehdi Karroubi and Mohammad Khatami. As Saham News was putting out the right line on Karroubi v. Khamenei/Ahmadinejad this afternoon, it was also taking shots at former President Khatami. In particular, Saham News was playing up the story --- which has not been confirmed --- that Khatami had sent a letter to the Supreme Leader seeking reconcilation. What's more, Saham was pressing the point that Khatami had "recognised" the current Government, thus distinguishing his position from that of Karroubi.

Why the divergence? Well, that's a story to be considered over following days. But let's be clear: Mehdi Karroubi is out front on this political challenge.

5. AND MOUSAVI?

But is Karroubi also far ahead of Mir Hossein Mousavi? So far Mousavi has been silent on the day's events, apart from his website Kalemeh reprinting the Saham News statement.

6. COULD EVERYTHING CHANGE?

As we broke up the meeting tonight, an EA correspondent said, "You know, Karroubi may well have another statement out when we wake up in the morning." Indeed, he could, even to the point of issuing another clarification that withdraws/modifies his "Mr Khamenei" position.

But, at the least, we can't see Karroubi withdrawing his now sustained condemnation --- sometimes explicit, sometimes in a bit of coding, as today --- of President Ahmadinejad. At most, he separates Mr Khamenei from his criticism.

So pull back all those headlines that came out earlier today (and are still in some "Western" publications). This is not recognition of the President. This is, to adopt a US term, "dis-respecting".

It's not a question of if, but how far, Karroubi wants to push it.