The Latest from Iran: If Khamenei's Other Shoe Drops (20 January)

2240 GMT: Balatarin Lives (for Real). An update and possible correction on our earlier story (1914 GMT) about the fate of Balatarin, the Iranian news portal. The site is back up, and some Iranian activists are saying that the supposed "successor" Agah Tarin was actually a regime attempt at imitation.

2000 GMT: An Iranian activist reports that journalist Nasrin Vaziri has been released after 23 days in prison.

1950 GMT: Rah-e-Sabz reports that Ali Reza Beheshti, Mir Hossein Mousavi's chief advisor, has suffered a heart attack in detention. It adds, however, that Beheshti has contacted his family and said that he is now better.

1914 GMT: Balatarin Lives. Balatarin, an Iranian website similar to the Digg or NewsVine portals, has been an important news source during the post-election crisis but was knocked off-line recently. Now a successor, Agah Tarin, has appeared.

1910 GMT: Mohsen Safai Farahani, recently sentenced to six years in prison, will be released today on bail of $700.000 $ for five days during the appeal against the verdict.

NEW Iran Analysis: “Supreme Leader Warns Rafsanjani” — The Sequels
NEW Iran: Ahmadinejad and the Labor Movement
Iran Analysis: The Supreme Leader Warns Rafsanjani
Iran Special: Breaking Mousavi’s Movement — Beheshti & Abutalabi
Iran Analysis: Reality Check (Yep, We Checked, Government Still in Trouble)
The Latest from Iran (19 January): Cross-Currents

1900 GMT: The Battle Against Ahmadinejad. For all of our attention to the manoeuvres around the Supreme Leader's speech, this may be the most important news on the in-fighting in the establishment. An unnamed influential member of the hardliners who supports the Government declares that Ahmadinejad Chief of Staff Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai "is out".

The website that prints this news, adding, "It appears as if the Government will put away Rahim-Mashai at an appropriate quiet moment"? The pro-Larijani Khabar Online.

1845 GMT: A group of economics professors have asked for the release of Professor Ali Arab Mazar of Allameh Tabatabei University, one of Mir Hossein Mousavi's top advisors, arrested after Ashura.

1840 GMT: Journalist, writer and critic Mehdi Jalil-Khani was arrested on Monday in Zanjan. He was brought blindfolded and handcuffed to the intelligence, accused of "insulting the leader".

1830 GMT: Now Poets are Banned. This entry from Pedestrian deserves to be quoted in full:

Ferdowsi is a monumental 10th century Persian poet. His Shahnameh (Book of Kings, translated into English by Dick Davis) is a national epic read and revered across Iran.

Now the wife of imprisoned journalist, Bahman Ahmadi reports that one of the charges for which he will have to serve an eight year prison sentence is, according to the judge’s verdict: “publishing an epic poem by the poet Ferdowsi on June 12th, 2009 in order to invite the public to protest and revolt.”

It is noted that Bahmad Ahmadi himself was not even allowed to read the verdict.

1455 GMT: The Coughing Protest. Rah-e-Sabz claims that a recent "political education" event at an Iran army barracks had to be cancelled when hundreds of soldiers starting coughing, apparently when the speaker criticised the late Grand Ayatollah Montazeri. Commanders have asked for a list of the dissident coughers.

1445 GMT: Toeing the Line. In a prolonged Press TV advertisement for the regime, Presidential candidate Mohsen Rezaei has blamed the post-election conflict on opposition candidates (Mousavi, Karroubi) who refused to act within the law and on foreign powers trying to unsettle the regime.

The only hint of Rezaei criticism of the Government was the invocation to distinguish between "protesters" and "rioters", both amongst security forces and Iran's state media, but he was happy to support Press TV's uplifting image of "democracy in Iran", with both sides learning to "act within the law".

Rezaei did throw out a conciliatory lifeline to the "Green movement" in the last part of the discussion by invoking the current televised debates as a reason for hope that opposition demands will be considered. Strange, however, that he would allow Press TV to push maybe the most important part of the interview --- Rezaei's letter for "unity" sent to the Supreme Leader earlier this month --- to the final minutes of the conversation.

1440 GMT: Black Comedy. University professors have published a "last will", to be retrieved after their demises: "I, Professor XXXXXX, killed by a bomb/bullet/fallen from a high floor/ suffocated with a string/fallen in a sulphuric acid bath hereby declare that 1) I was not a nuclear scientist, 2) I was never a supporter of Ahmadinejad."

Ebrahim Nabavi offers helpful proposals to Iran police chief Esmail Ahmadi-Moghaddam, who seems to have recently discovered the difference between BMW and SMS.

1435 GMT: Academic Purges. Six prominent professors of Allameh Tabatabei University have been relieved of their duties.

1400 GMT: The Follow-Up on Khamenei & Rafsanjani. We've posted a separate entry on varying responses to yesterday's speech by the Supreme Leader.

1148 GMT: Labour Issues. Deputy Oil Minister Seyfollah Jashn-Saz has warned, "If payments in oil sector continue like this, some employees will leave the country." Not leave the sector, leave the country.

Meanwhile, we've posted an interesting interview with an Iranian labour activist about the situation under the Ahmadinejad Government.

1140 GMT: Baghi's Detention. The wife of journalist Emadeddin Baghi, detained just after Grand Ayatollah Montazeri's death (supposedly for his interview of Montazeri), has spoken about her husband's arrest and detention.

1130 GMT: Where's Mahmoud? Well, in addition to biking and jogging (see 0900 GMT), President Ahmadinejad has met Iraqi Vice President Adel Abdel Mehdi. No mention of Iran's internal situation but Ahmadinejad did put out the line, "Maintenance of unity and integrity among regional countries will be the only way to thwart the conspiracies of enemies."

1125 GMT: While almost all of the Mothers of Mourning detained in recent weeks have been released, Persian2English highlights the case of one supporter who is reported to be in solitary confinement in Evin Prison.

1115 GMT: Who Killed Professor Ali-Mohammadi? Everyone (except us). The "hard-line" newspaper Kayhan reportedly has identified those responsible for the explosion which killed physicist Massoud Ali-Mohammadi last week. Iran's judiciary should go after Mir Hossein Mousavi, Mohammad Khatami, and Mehdi Karroubi who are partners with the "black triangle" of the CIA, Mossad, and Britain's MI6.

0930 GMT: The Khamenei-Rafsanjani Dance. Press TV spins yesterday's speech by former President Hashemi Rafsanjani (and ignores the Supreme Leader's address) to portray unity: "Hashemi echoes Leader in observing law".

0900 GMT: Where's Mahmoud? President Ahmadinejad handles the economic crisis by riding a bike. And jogging.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i-FAypZ2JKQ&feature=sub[/youtube]

0845 GMT: The US-based journalist and scholar Mehdi Khalaji has written a long article about his father, Ayatollah Mohammad Taghi Khalaji, who was arrested last week:

By initiating a crackdown on peaceful protesters and suppressing the first generation of the Islamic Republic, the government has simultaneously discredited its Islamic legitimacy and undermined its revolutionary credentials. This regime has transformed my father from a man concerned with keeping Ayatollah Khomeini's shoulders warm into an enemy of the state. This is a revolution that eats its own children. It places its survival at risk.

0600 GMT: It's a curious but effective phrase: "Waiting for the other shoe to drop" is not just waiting, but waiting with an expectation based on nerves and fear.

So this morning we start by looking around for reactions to the Supreme Leader's speech yesterday. Our initial line, based on a very good source, was that Ayatollah Khamenei had dropped the first shoe to warn Hashemi Rafsanjani that it was time to choose sides.

However, as an EA reader helpfully intervened last night, the warning could have been intended for others in the "elite". Again, we emphasize those within the establishment --- an elite whom Khameini said could assist "sedition" with their ambiguity --- rather than the opposition. In weeks after Ashura (27 December) and before the Supreme Leader's statement, the conservative/principlist challenge to the Government neared insurgency, setting the immediate goals of taking down former Tehran prosecutor Saeed Mortazavi and Ahmadinejad's right-hand man Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai.

The insurgency, carried out through newspapers as well as around the Iranian Parliament, has not yet achieved either immediate goal, but it is likely that Mortazavi will have to resign as a Presidential aide, possibly serving jail time. So one reading of Khamenei's warning to the elite is that the challenge stops there.

That said, if this was a throw-down to those in the establishment beyond Rafsanjani, there's a risky slippage in the Supreme Leader's words. Critics like Ali Motahhari have not been ambiguous in their interviews; they want the removal of President Ahmadinejad or, at least, his reduction to a humiliated figurehead as he gives a public apology for the post-election failures and abuses.

If the critics don't back away from that demand, Khamenei will face a moment beyond yesterday's speech and possibly any declaration he has made since the week after the election: does he drop the other shoe and offer his unconditional backing to Ahmadinejad or does he back away and let a far from ambiguous "elite" despatch the President on a permanent holiday?

Comments

[Scott Lucas]

Carpe Diem/Fantasy Check/Reality Check,

"Just wondering if anyone reads all this...in Iran or anywhere in the Middle East?"

Yes. Yes, they do. Thanks for asking.

S.

[Thomas]

Scott,

The freaks have been showing up here lately.

Yes that is you No. 24.

[Plastic Bertrand]

Thomas-it takes a freak to name a freak-just because you do not understand that the Persian counts for more noise than substance in the middle east-what are they bagging on about-nuclear power ? Who cares-even the U.A.E Can out spend them and get better technology then they will ever get. And if the Kingdom and Egypt decide to join the race then the Persian Nuclear Progrmme will look insignifigant. So what exactly do they have to offer ? Middle East Peace ? No, they are NOT respected enough and can only operate because of the Baaths in Syria. In short if the truth means to be a freak then so be it Thomas.

[Scott Lucas]

To our newest EA commenter,

Are you the same Plastic Bertrand who "represented Luxembourg in the Eurovision Song Contest with the song 'Amour Amour', [which] failed to impress the juries, scoring only 4 points and placing 21st out of 22 entries"? Indeed are you the Plastic Bertrand who, after almost electrocuting himself, took on the new name "Electric Bertrand" but still failed to be more than a one-hit wonder?

Just wondering....

S.

[Carpe Diem]

Have any of the US based ranters ever been to Iran or they just listen to the hype created by out of touch exiles? These are serious questions or you are in for a ache breaky heart.

[Barry]

Carpe Diem

Your name is a very good catch phrase for the Reformist movement. Latin for "Seize the day!" Are you sure that you are not secretly a Reformist??

Anyway, it is a wonderful Latin phrase "Seize the day" - it is just what the young men and women of Iran are now doing.

Barry

[Ashkon]

Dear Mr. Bertrand,
As an Iranian I wish to extend a hand of peace and friendship to you. From your posts it seems like you harbor a slight dislike towards my compatriots. There is no need for such rivalry between our peoples, instead I propose a new era of mutual understanding. I get offended when some Iranians talk negatively about Arabs, we need to move beyond these petty remarks for we are all brothers in humanity. I understand the current Iranian regime has alienated our state, but our people's strength lies within our deep culture, pride, and love; not our pocketbooks or technology. So if you dislike me because I am an Iranian, all you will get in return will be kindness and love.

“Your task is not to seek for love, but merely to seek and find all the barriers within yourself that you have built against it.”

- Jalal ad-Din Rumi

[Plastic Bertrand]

Reference Comment 29-Scott-My hit "Ca Plan Pour moi" was a global hit and am still get royalties from it.

[Plastic Bertrand]

Ashkon yes we can be friends as long as the Persians stop trying to forment trouble in the Arab heartlands.

[Barry]

Plastic Bertrand

"we can be friends as long as the Persians stop trying to forment trouble in the Arab heartlands."

Don't you mean "we can be friends as long as the Islamic Republic of Iran stops trying to forment trouble in the Arab heartlands."? :)

But anyway - we all know that the Regime in Iran is neither Islamic or a Republic. :)

Barry

[Plastic Bertrand]

Barry, I agree they are far from Islamic they are a crypto Persian/superstitious creed that have warped the Holy Book to fit their Pre Islamic beleifs so that the few can rule over their wretched.

[ange paris]

As I see , plastic Bertrand is our friend; welcome ; "ça plane pour moi" , aussi cher ami ! as soon as you will have no longer troubles with our country; pray for our vicrory !

[Submitto]

Yes, yes... that's what it must be about, what it must have been about all along, all those years, who am I kidding: All those centuries! It's all about everyone's fight to be an Iranian, An Arab, a real muslim, a real Persian, to finally get into that with cultural, ethnic and what have you not love sealed vacuum box of identity! Brilliant, this ideal search for the essence of one's stock. I am sure it is written into everyone's heart directly and yet magically copied from the mystically hidden tombs of individuality, that all that it takes for liberty to be no longer much less of a laughed at myth is the right interpretation of mythology.

[Thomas]

Plastic Bertrand,

Why did you label all Persians cowards? This is what was offensive. I had taken you for another right-wing US troll playing cyber-warrior, my apologies.

My view here has been that the Greens will not be victorious, but already are. They are just fighting through messy details as the revoultionary generation destroys itself.

While Sadr has no love for Iran (as do many Iraqis), al Dawa holds the reins of power in Iraq. We will see how this plays out in the coming elections.

Ange Paris is good people, if she says you are cool this works for me.

[Plastic Bertrand]

Thank you Thomas some civility at last.

[ange paris]

Thank you Tomas joun . :-)

[Thomas]

Plastic Bertrand,

If we do not start acting civilly to find a common ground to stand, the current petite tyrants and their vulgar followers in the world will win the day.

[Thomas]

Ange Paris,

I have been searching deeper into the Iran-Iraq war.

Our Napoleon was Khomeini's Rostum.

[ange paris]

Thomas
I don't know, I reported what I had heard ! Politics are so complicated ! in this domain people are so hypcrite; look at Larijani, one day he says white and an other day it's is black; perhaps our Napoleon was khomeini's Rostam, who knows !! :-)

[Thomas]

Ange Paris,

I found interesting info. Whenever an offensive was going on he was in the lead, especially Fao Peninsula campaign. There was a counterattack, and they shifted his divison to go face it, that is the respect civilian leaders had for him . So the stories you heard seem to be true. The man has the qualities of a sucessful miltary leader.

Since you have been following the crisis more intently, how have the people under his current authority behaved? It appears from the little of I have seen that they acted with restraint while imported forces did the dirty work. I just do not believe a person like him would risk everything for the stupid charade going on now, though he will play by the rules so you will hear the tough talk required by his position. If their was a countercoup, he is probably the only one with the ability, charisma, and prestige to do it. And it would be accomplished in a few hours with little bloodshed.

What was also fascinating during those times, the West would always approach Rafsanjani (a known realist in IRI) to find out what was going on if they felt the leadership was going the crazy route and they needed to plan for war. This explains Khomeini relieving Khamenei (the Crazies patron) of military responsibility in June 1988 and giving it to Rafsanjani. The US and Iran where already several months into an undeclared naval war with a faction in the US adminstration want to go all the way in. So the uncompromising man Khomeini compromised by drinking the bitter cup because if he didn't he would lose every thing.

In the end, Iran had the war won in May of 1982 but Khomeini with his personal vendetta against Hussein was alone in keeping going. So the IRI fears regime change since they pursued it as a matter of policy from 1982-88 (Do Unto Others).

[ange paris]

Thomas
You have eventually found the answer, thank you and bravo! I like him because as you have said, he has ability, charisma, and prestige and because of his good reputation, he's respected without dirty blood on his hands; but some weeks ago , I heard him saying in an article, that AN is the real and legitimate president of Iran and there is no doubt ! and I was disappointed and perhaps it was a politically correct behavor ! among the conservators, he's the best ! wait and see.

[Thomas]

Ange Paris

Know Hope.

Good night.

[Peace Maker]

Ange Paris ,

This is what he 'really' thinks :

Audio of a private meeting :
http://news.gooya.com/didaniha/archives/2009/07/091302.php

Video of an interview :
http://tiny.cc/MaL6n

[ange paris]

Peace Maker
Thank you for all these infos; I find him very clever, democrat, and "innocent" .

[Barry]

Ange Paris

Who????

Barry