UPDATED Iran Special Analysis: What Karroubi's Statement on "Mr Khamenei"/"Head of Government" Means

UPDATE 1555 GMT: Karroubi Clarifies, Repeats, Challenges. From The Flying Carpet Institute, via the Facebook site linked to Mir Hossein Mousavi and Saham News:
Mehdi Karoubi, in a meeting with a group of prominent political figures including some of the leaders of reformist parties said:

“Although today they have shut down newspapers, filtered websites, imprisoned many of our dear friends, closed down the office of [reformist] parties including the Etemade Melli office and even my personal office, although they fired shots at my car, although some are threatening everyday and are insulting Mir Hossein Mousavi, me and the great nation of Iran in every way possible and take our words out of content, but I am firmly announcing that I never compromise over people’s rights and one of the main rights of this nation is their votes that they casted in the ballot boxes while trusting the authorities; and I will be with the people till the very end and will try for holding free elections and eliminating current obstacles."

"I will announce my detailed views regarding the principles of the Islamic Revolution, defending people’s rights and the necessity for holding free elections to the noble nation of Iran soon.”

UPDATE 0900 GMT: Persian2English has published a translation of the Karroubi "clarification" carried on Rah-e-Sabz last night. This was one of the key pieces of evidence behind our analysis, as the Karroubi camp deliberately "fed" this information to a trusted reporter to ensure the widest dissemination:

"It was reported by Fars News, Iran’s official news agency, that Mehdi Karoubi has officially recognized the status of Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

Mr. Mojtaba Vahedi, advisor for Mehdi Karoubi responded to such claims. Talking to a JARAS reporter, he said: “I talked to Mr. Karoubi and he claims that Mr. Abu-Torabi has uttered some words that are not true.”

According to the advisor, Mr. Karoubi talked in detail about the rigged election. Following his speech, Karoubi explained, “A few reporters gathered around and asked a few questions. I told them that the government has been sworn in and has the responsibility to respond to the people’s needs. In the same interview I stressed that there has been a rigging in the election and I stand by my words. I am not so whimsy to retreat because of insults and threats. But people have daily needs that the residing government needs to respond to. I also told an English paper that they can rest assured that Ahmadinejad’s government will not last four years.”

Karoubi’s last words were: “My words are the words of the nation: where is our vote?”

--
EA staff had a conference late last night to go over all the information we have --- from websites and sources inside Iran --- on Mehdi Karroubi's statement, reflecting on the Presidential election and his acceptance of Mr Ahmadinejad as the "head of the government of the regime" because it had been decreed by "Mr Khamenei".

We are watching for further developments today and may revise our analysis, however, for now, here is our reading:

Iran Snap Analysis: The Karroubi and Khatami Manoeuvres
The Latest from Iran (26 January): Now for the Follow-Up….
The Latest from Iran (25 January): Who Makes A Move Today?

1. KARROUBI HAS TAKEN A STAND AGAINST THE "PRESIDENT" AND THE SUPREME LEADER

We are treating the statement put out on Karroubi's website, Saham News, as the cleric's primary line. (We note the interviews given by Hossein Karroubi to a series of reporters, including Radio Farda, BBC Persian, and Associated Press, but there are ambiguities and some confusion in how those interviews are being written up.) This is the key line:

Due to the fact that Mr Khamenei has 'confirmed/given legal validity to the decree which stated that Ahmadinejad has been elected, for this reason, I consider him [Mr Ahmadinejad] to be the 'head of the government of this regime'.

Ahmadinejad is not the President and holds his position not by the will of the voters but the pronouncement of Ayatollah Khamenei. He thus does not have legitimacy. (The most important follow-up to the Saham News statement is a story fed to Rah-e-Sabz, in which Karroubi repeated that he stood with the people and said he did not expect Ahmadinejad to last four years.)

And it's not the Supreme Leader but "Mr Khamenei". That is not a slip, because the statement has been unchanged on Saham News for hours. And that is not respect but an insult.

2. DID KARROUBI INTEND TO TAKE THIS STAND?

This is still not clear, given the chain of events. The confusing series of events started when Karroubi spoke with a group of reporters Monday morning. What he did not anticipate was that Fars News, having asked the question whether Karroubi accepted that the June Presidential election was legal, printed his answer as a recognition of Ahmadinejad as "the President". So, in one sense, Hossein Karroubi's series of interviews throughout the day and even the Saham News statement were "damage control", protecting his father against charges that he had sold out to the regime.

"Damage control", however, did not require that Karroubi take his political shots at Mr Khamenei and "the head of the government of the regime". So whether or not the cleric started the morning with a plan for a fight or whether he was bumped into it by the Fars episode, the outcome is the same.

3. THIS HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH THE CHALLENGE OF THE "ESTABLISHMENT WITHIN".

My first attempt at analysis connected the Karroubi manoeuvre with the initiative by Ali Larijani-Mohsen Rezaei-Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf to curb or even topple Ahmadinejad. Just forget I wrote that --- I was wrong.

4. BUT THIS DOES DISTANCE KARROUBI FROM KHATAMI

The interesting sub-plot today has been obvious "clear blue water" between Mehdi Karroubi and Mohammad Khatami. As Saham News was putting out the right line on Karroubi v. Khamenei/Ahmadinejad this afternoon, it was also taking shots at former President Khatami. In particular, Saham News was playing up the story --- which has not been confirmed --- that Khatami had sent a letter to the Supreme Leader seeking reconcilation. What's more, Saham was pressing the point that Khatami had "recognised" the current Government, thus distinguishing his position from that of Karroubi.

Why the divergence? Well, that's a story to be considered over following days. But let's be clear: Mehdi Karroubi is out front on this political challenge.

5. AND MOUSAVI?

But is Karroubi also far ahead of Mir Hossein Mousavi? So far Mousavi has been silent on the day's events, apart from his website Kalemeh reprinting the Saham News statement.

6. COULD EVERYTHING CHANGE?

As we broke up the meeting tonight, an EA correspondent said, "You know, Karroubi may well have another statement out when we wake up in the morning." Indeed, he could, even to the point of issuing another clarification that withdraws/modifies his "Mr Khamenei" position.

But, at the least, we can't see Karroubi withdrawing his now sustained condemnation --- sometimes explicit, sometimes in a bit of coding, as today --- of President Ahmadinejad. At most, he separates Mr Khamenei from his criticism.

So pull back all those headlines that came out earlier today (and are still in some "Western" publications). This is not recognition of the President. This is, to adopt a US term, "dis-respecting".

It's not a question of if, but how far, Karroubi wants to push it.

Comments

[rezvan]

A lot of kerfuffle about nothing. Can anyone remind us whether Karroubi or Mousavi ever filed a complaint outlining how they believe the election was rigged. A University of Maryland opinion poll in Sep'09 confirmed that if the elections were held today the majority would vote for AN. All hard available evidence including pre-election polls said clearly that AN would win. Moreover a clear majority like the current political system so no hope for those who wanted backed with US $ for the Islamic Republic to self destruct & become secular. Long live the Islamic Republic.

[Hossein]

The "U of MD" pole was erroneous and there are numerous scientific accounts of its blatant flaws. It was a paid-for poll and the university really had nothing to do with it. Just read the correct analysis. Genuine experts in statistics who are also free have reported that the election was rigged and have pointed out to a number of even simplistic attempts in producing numbers. One simple point that has stuck in my mind is that the differential among the candidates as a function did not in any way demonstrate regional and other specific attributes. Another example from among many: The towns people of Karrubi's birth, for example, must have all either passed away, changed all at once (a statistical impossibility thus indicative of manipulation), or were never there. Do nor undermine the expertise of the Iranian people who looked at the rigged numbers and saw clearly that they were fabricated. PERIOD. I hope the regime that rapes and kills its own citizens and lies all the time and has pilfered our national wealth and has squandered it on others and has made a few thugs very very wealthy will indeed go away soon. The Iranian people are smart and have now fully awakened and will no longer believe the lies of the IRI nor of its agents. PERIOD.

[Bosco]

Rezvan is not Iranian, so he really doesn't care about what happens to the people. He just cares that the IRI opposes the US, UK and Israel, and sends welfare checks to Hamas and Hezbollah.

[Hossein]

Shame on people who see the atrocities and do nothing, say nothing and don't care. Shame on those like Rezvan who are not Iranian, but you are human are you not. Do you not care when a fellow human is tortured to death. Shame! You are so blinded by your hatred of the West that when an innocent Iranian is tortured to death because of daring to seek justice and freedom that you ignore it. Please take a closer look at your your own conscience. Ponder Iqbal's poetry when he talks of human dignity, do you not care. Do look into your own conscience.

Shame, too, on those Iranians who see the horrible conduct and see what the IRI is doing to the citizens, yet is oblivious and doesn't care, or worse sides with the rapists. Shame!

[Bill]

Rezvan,

You really must be a paid basiji! Did you forget to read the fine print in the University of Maryland poll---27% would not respond!!!! Statistically speaking that invalidates the poll and the organization running the poll all but said that. Not one election in the West that was polled has ever reported a number so high that did not respond! Secondly I would hedge a bet many people said Ahmandinejad simply because they were afraid. Gee now why would they be afraid? Could it be the arbitray arrests, beatings, rapes, and killings? News flash it doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out what the results of that poll would be.

Do you really think we in the West and your fellow Iranians cannot read? I guess we know why Totalitarian regimes are so stupid, they never listen to their people.

Thx
Bill

[Megan]

Jimbo,

Neither you nor Peace Maker understood my objection to your remarks. I hope this make it clear.

I was not debating the proper or the improper way of addressing the jerk Khamenei. I was objecting to your use of word “ambiguous “in characterize the dictionary translation of Mr. = Agha I had offered. There was absolutely nothing ambiguous about that translation and it is sad you do not want to see that.

[jimbo]

rezvan -you are a blind stupidbasiji. just to say since when a university poll is a confirmation of votes? and you use the term 'islamic repulic'. this regime is nor islamic and neither a republic. open your eyes and stop writing bs in the hope of anyone agreeing with your views, nobody will.

[Megan]

Jinbo,

I agree with you regarding Rezvan.

Rezvan,

Hey Mr. Cyber Basiji, on hand you do your usual rant that U.S. is up to no good and on the other you back your claim by using poll by a University in the U.S.?

Your rant is hilarious. You want independence for Iran and you fail to see that your master, Islamic Republic, has not brought independence to Iran it has only replaced U.S. with Russia and China.