The Latest from Iran (28 January): Trouble Brewing

2045 GMT: Taking the Green Out of Iran. I don't want to say the Government is in any way threatened by the Green movement, but somebody has apparently decided that, when President Ahmadinejad is speaking, the Iranian flag no longer has to be Red, White, and Green:



1630 GMT: Activist Ehsan Hushmand and 4 Kurdish students have been freed on bail.

1620 GMT: All is Well. Really. Ahmad Khatami may have tried to put out the message that Hashemi Rafsanjani and the pro-Ahmadinejad Ayatollah Mohammad Yazdi have reconciled, but both Rah-e-Sabz and BBC Persian are claiming that Khatami has been pressing Rafsanjani not to publish his letter of grievance over Yazdi's allegations of Rafsanjani's irresponsibility and ambiguity.

1610 GMT: At Tehran Bureau, Setareh Sabety posts a poem reflecting on the executions of two "monarchists" (see 0940 GMT), "They Did Not Hang My Son Today".

1605 GMT: Where's Mahmoud? So how does President Ahmadinejad respond to the growing today? Well, with this declaration to officials in Tehran: “They (imperialist powers) seek to dominate energy resources of the Middle East....But the Iranian nation and other nations will not allow them to be successful."

1600 GMT: Let Mehdi Make This Perfectly Clear. We can no longer keep up with Mehdi Karroubi as he hammers home his attack against the Ahmadinejad Government. We have posted his latest interview, this one with Saham News.

1530 GMT: The Dead and Detained. The Guardian of London has updated its list of those killed and arrested in the post-election crisis. There are now 1259 people, arranged alphabetically by first name.

1525 GMT: All is Well Alert. Ayatollah Ahmad Khatami wants everyone to know that Hashemi Rafsanjani and Ayatollah Mohammad Yazdi, who only a few days ago slammed Rafsanjani's ambiguity, have made up and are now very good friends.

NEW Iran Document: Karroubi Maintains the Pressure (28 January)
NEW Iran Document: Resignation Letter of Diplomat in Japan “Join the People”
NEW Iran Document/Analysis: Karroubi’s Statement on the Political Situation (27 January)
NEW Iran Analysis: Leadership in the Green Movement
NEW Latest Iran Video: When Karroubi Met Fars (25 January)
NEW Iran & Karroubi: Why This is “Much Ado About Something”
The Latest from Iran (27 January): Battle Renewed

Beyond our smile, the possible significance: Government supporters are signalling to Rafsanjani that they will reduce the pressure on his family if he joins forces with them.

1520 GMT: We have posted the English translation of the resignation letter of an Iranian diplomat in Japan, asking his colleagues to "Join the People".

1000 GMT: Obama's State of the Union --- Nukes Trumps Rights. We'll have full analysis tomorrow of President Obama's speech (video and transcript in separate entry). Let's just say now that anyone expecting a boost or even a thumbs-up to the Iranian opposition will be disappointed.

Obama made only two references to Iran, and the primary one was to support his two-prong approach of engagement/sanctions on the nuclear issue:

These diplomatic efforts have...strengthened our hand in dealing with those nations that insist on violating international agreements in pursuit of these weapons....That is why the international community is more united, and the Islamic Republic of Iran is more isolated. And as Iran’s leaders continue to ignore their obligations, there should be no doubt: They, too, will face growing consequences.

Later in the speech was this fleeting reference:

We stand with the girl who yearns to go to school in Afghanistan, we support the human rights of the women marching through the streets of Iran, and we advocate for the young man denied a job by corruption in Guinea. For America must always stand on the side of freedom and human dignity.

0940 GMT: The Executions. The Iranian Students News Agency identifies the two demonstrators killed this morning, for "mohareb" (war against God), as Mohammad Reza Ali-Zamani and Arash Rahmanipour. Both had been detained before the elections as members of an outlawed monarchist group, and both had been put on television in a special Press TV documentary in August to "confess" (see separate EA video).

However, what is unsubtle is the further twisting of the two cases to fit the more recent show of resistance to the regime. The Tehran Prosecutor's office declared:

Following the riots and anti-revolutionary measures in recent months, particularly on the day of Ashura, a Tehran Islamic Revolutionary Court branch considered the cases of a number of accused and handed down death sentences against 11 of those. The sentences against two of these people... were carried out today at dawn and the accused were hanged.

The sentences for the other nine of the accused in recent months' riots are at the appeal stage... upon confirmation, measures will be undertaken to implement the sentences.

0925 GMT: As I make my way back from Dublin, two important pieces on EA:

We've posted extracts from Mehdi Karroubi's lengthy interview with the Financial Times of London, adding a snap analysis. The discussion seems to clarify Karroubi's position after this week's drama: he wants Ahmadinejad out and, while adhering to the Islamic system, he wants the Supreme Leader to be the man to defend the Constitution by pushing the President off the political cliff.

Alongside this, and indeed offering a contrast, is a guest analysis from Elham Gheytanchi on "Leadership and the Green Movement": "The Green Movement...has avoided centralized leadership and instead has mobilized ordinary people beyond what was previously thought possible."

0740 GMT: Britain's Sky News is reporting, from Iranian state media, that two Ashura demonstrators have been executed.

0700 GMT: A gentler --- if that is a word which can ever be applied to Iran's post-election crisis --- news day on Wednesday. There were no high-profile statements, and none of the drama of the Karroubi declaration of Monday.

Still, there were rumblings, most of which brought further bad omens for President Ahmadinejad.

There are reports that the Number One Target of both the "conservative" and "reformist" opposition, former Tehran Prosecutor General Saeed
Mortazavi, will not take up his position as head of the President's unit to combat smuggling. That brings Mortazavi one step closer to taking the public responsibility for the detainee abuses, especially at Kahrizak Prison. And the other primary target of the anti-Ahmadinejad forces, advisor Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai, was attacked in the newspaper Mardomsalari.

On the economic front, Ahmadinejad's subsidy reduction proposal is beginning to run into trouble with Parliament. Three days into the 10-day period to comment on the President's Development Plan, legislators forced the Government to withdraw "income bracketing" for the subsidy cuts.

And another foreign firm, a US chemical company, has declared that it is ending any involvement in Iran.

There was a piece of good news for the opposition, with journalist Mehdi Hosseinzadeh released after more than 7 months in detention. However, Persian2English posts on the "catastrophic situation" in Section 350 of Evin Prison.

Comments

[Catherine]

Fereshteh Ghazi conducted this interview with Nasrin Sotoudeh, Arash Rahmanipour's lawyer, back in October. On Homylafayette's blog:
http://homylafayette.blogspot.com/2009/10/steps-away-from-execution-and-still.html

[PBE]

Isn't today the "arba-een" of Montazeri's death? Anything happening around that?

[Arshama]

@ 1525 GMT Ahmad Khatami on False News

Welcome back, Scott

What is well? Jaras and BBC say that Ahmad Khatami tries to hinder Raffers from publishing his letter against Yazdi: http://www.rahesabz.net/story/8920/
http://www.bbc.co.uk/persian/iran/2010/01/100128_l07_iranpolitics_yadihashemi.shtml

Catherine,

An interview with Nasrin Sotudeh on VOA before the execution: http://www.peykeiran.com/Content.aspx?ID=12779

RIP Mohammad Reza Ali-Zamani and Arash Rahmanipour. We will sentence your murderers.

Arshama

[Scott Lucas]

PBE,

The 40th Day memorial for Grand Ayatollah Montazeri is tomorrow, 29 January.

S.

[Hossein]

I am disgusted with the regime for the hangings. These are simply innocents people who demonstrated for their rights. We should all be outraged.

[florence achard]

according to Arash Rahmanipour’s lawyer, he was not even demonstrating, he was in jail!
I hope these murderers pay a dear price for all the blood they have shed for 30 yars.

[Hossein]

That is correct, they were in jail since April I believe. This is a barbaric, brutal and the worst fascist regime Iran has ever had. Liberty does have a price and our vigilance is one of them. Shame on all the agents, come back to vatan and leave this evil.

[Arshama]

To whom it may concern, a very useful Gregorian - Persian calendar (GER, FR as well):
http://calendar.zoznam.sk/persian_calendar-en.php
Obviously 22 Bahman should be marked in Green!

Florence, Hossein,

I always listen to this song, when I'm down: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cCnz6B_Ohlk

[Arshama]

[Duplicate comment]

[Greeny]

Re. 0940 GMT: The Executions.

It started from trying to get more power into the hands of fewer people by cheating in an already very flawed electoral process.
All the obvious signs of fraud and bias by the organizers and overseers of the election were dismissed as lies made up by the “enemy”.
The majority of the people were not prepared to ignore this blatant (even by IR standards) fraud.
Right from the day of the elections all every effort was made to brutally suppress any decent.
To ensure that everyone knew that this suppression was carried out by the orders of the highest authority in IR, SL himself publically threatened people with forceful action.
People were beaten, shot in the heart, run over by vehicles, arrested, tortured, raped in detention, killed under torture and forced to confess in show trials. Even the bodies of the dead were withheld for weeks and months, buried secretly at night or under heavy security presence.
The holiest things that IR (Khomeini, Ashura, even the Quran) has were used as excuse to crackdown even harder.
And now people who were arrested before the elections are executed for taking part in the post election demonstrations.
Most all of these despicable actions (and many more) have been carried out with almost no provocation at all.
Regime and SL apologist could try, if they tried hard enough (and were prepared to bend logic and ethics to a point were none were recognisable to normal human beings), to excuse the beatings, the brutality and even the killings. They will not be able to excuse away these two executions; unless they are prepared to base their arguments on time travel, perhaps. The process of trials, sentencing and carrying out of the sentences were supposed to be a through process involving many safeguards that the regime claims to have. So the stain of these executions is on the whole regime and its laws. This cannot be excused as the act of a few misguided people.

The SL and his people, whose actions are beyond the pale, seem to be intent on keeping things in accordance to what they think they should be like, at any cost. And the cost is rising on a daily basis. I wonder how much room for manoeuvre they are leaving for themselves. They are turning this into a fight to the death: either they stand and everyone else is dead or they are gotten rid of.

There is no doubt that most of IR’s recent actions are signs of regime weakness. But to have killed these two people today in order to scare everyone else about 22 Bahman demonstrations in an act of desperation.

[Greeny]

Scott,

Re. 0940 GMT: The Executions.

You might find this from Radio Zamaneh of interest:

http://zamaaneh.com/humanrights/2010/01/post_506.html

The sister of one of the two executed today says that, he and his family were told that the death sentence was revoked. She also says that neither she nor her parents were told of the execution and they all first heard about it on TV:

Also the lawyer of Arash Rahmaniour (who was executed today) says that her client was arrested two months before the June elections. He was 19 at the time and his “accusations” were not related to the elections. The accusations were related to when we was 16 and 17 year years old [which is TWO TO THREE BEFORE the elections]. She says that he should have been tried in juvenile court and that once again IRI has executed a minor.

[ken mac]

--They are turning this into a fight to the death: either they stand and everyone else is dead or they are gotten rid of.--

That is how I see this as well. This regime must go.

[Hossein]

This regime has lost all legitimacy, a clear majority of people in Iran are now against the IRI. The executions are creating hatred and disgust. The IRI wants to scare people into submission, but history has shown that ultimately people overcome fear and rise against tyranny and they are doing that in Iran. There are reports, more than jut hearsay, that IRI is crumbling from within, only the thugs remain and they fight among themselves. Long live freedom. We will see this fascist state end.

[Greeny]

Re. 1525 GMT & 1620 GMT: All is Well. (Rafsanjani threat to write about Yazdi’s past actions)

Parleman News claims that one of the issues Rafsanjani wants to raise about Yazdi’s past is that in the Assembly of Experts meeting that selected the SL after Khomeini’s death, Yazdi was trying hard to have Ayatollah Golpayegani selected as leader and was against Khamenie’s selected as SL:

http://www.parlemannews.ir/index.aspx?n=7935

[florence achard]

"The SL and his people, whose actions are beyond the pale..."

And yet Mehdi Karroubi, "the valiant scheik", says:

MK: This week, Mr [Akbar] Hashemi-Rafsanjani [former president] once again said that moderate forces from both sides should get together and find a solution. He rightly said the best person who could help this happen is the supreme leader [Ayatollah Ali Khamenei]. I agree with him.

What do you think of that, Greenie?

Let us never forget Arash Rahmanipour and Mohammad Reza Ali-Zamani .

Marg bar these disgusting murderers

[Barry]

Well, it is now no longer "marg bar Diktator"

It is quite clearly and openly "marg bar Khamenei"

Yesterday

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=co8h-x1fEpc&feature=youtu.be&a

Barry

[Scott Lucas]

Greeny (and to all who have contributed),

Much appreciated. I remember, when the "confessions" were aired in August 2009, trying to learn about Zamani and Rahmanipour. Even then, it struck me that they would be two pawns --- whatever the events and status that lay behind their April 2009 arrest --- in the post-election game. They were initially dangled before the Green movement as the sign that this could happen to you, so repent.

So, when the Green movement did not repent, that lack of repentance was attached to the two men. To me, it seems that Ashura sealed their fate. The non-repentant must face the ultimate penalty....

Thus it seems that fear breeds more threats and danger. Darkest before the dawn?

S.

[Sahar]

It is horrible, disgusting and unbearable what they have been doing with innocent people. Thanks god there is a gap within system otherwise like in the past many of these news would have been covered up too.
As for Rafsanjani, he said that he had written a letter to disclose Yazdi's past in 80s and his activities as the judiciary head and that of course has scared themm...But why doesn't he disclose it? Rafsanjani should talk openly? how much longer we tolerate these act of cover-up? Why don't they have the courage to disclose the dirty secrets?

[Barry]

There is no doubt about it - some people are great writers

http://droi.wordpress.com/2010/01/28/open-letter-to-the-opposition-leaders/

Barry

[Greeny]

Scott,

Great insight as always.

I think there will be more violence from the government side: in the form of more executions, in the form of street violence (beatings, assassinations, etc) and in the form of detentions and tortures.

I think any future executions (11 more of which are already on the cards) may depend on the reaction of the “establishment” (by establishment I am also talking about the reformists). If they put pressure on the SL and judiciary about these executions they might be able to reduce the frequency or number of future executions. And this may be a trap set out by the right. By a trap I mean, if the reformists (Mousavi, Karoubi, Khatami, etc) protest these two executions, they could be labelled as supporting the monarchist “mohareb”. But the problem is that if they don’t protest these two executions they’ll be signalling that they are prepared to see more executions.

Let’s not forget that many reformists and family members of reformists are prison too. Some of them could also be in danger of being sentenced to death (the sentences may or may not be actually carried out).

I also think that the way these two executions were carried out, it shows that they may have been used as a tactic to shock the public and reformists. Very similar to the post election trials started. If you recall it was originally announced that the trials would be of street rioters, but the first day many of the reformists, including Abtahi, were paraded in court.

You could expect the slide towards more violence. Since 19 June that has been inevitable (also since SL has dismissed any opportunities that have presented themselves to him over the past 7 months), but I am a little surprised that the speed with which the regime is turning to more instruments of terror. It is much faster than I was originally thinking. It maybe that he pace of things is much faster than most of us (at least me) could imagine back in June.

“Darkest before the dawn?”
I am afraid that today we saw the sign of more darkness. These two executions are like a first blood.
There are also some encouraging signs too, but as it has seemed right from the start back in June, the costs are piling up.

[Greeny]

florence achard,

Re. “MK: He [Rafsanjani] rightly said the best person who could help this happen is the supreme leader [Ayatollah Ali Khamenei]. I agree with him.”

I can see why Rafsanjani would say. Firstly he is not looking to overthrow the IRI. Secondly as Head of Expediency Council he is an appointee of SL, and therefore cannot say anything but praise of SL. I think he is being shrewd as by saying so, he is effectively implying that SL has caused this mess and he should be the one who clears it up (this is one way his statement can be read).

As for Karoubi, he too is not against the IRI. He is not looking to overthrow it. I think Karoubi is under a lot of pressure from SL & co and he is trying to make statements that might help ease that pressure (don’t forget that his car was shot at in Qazvin and he was saying that his government appointed bodyguards did not do anything to protect him). I also have to say that some of the stuff he said yesterday and today seem to be more a direct attack on SL than a pledge of support for him.

Regardless of all of this I think we have to bear this in mind: a sizable portion (in my view a sizable majority) of Iranians are fed up with the way the country is governed and they are treated by the regime (politically, economically, and personally as human beings). Add to this the coming of age of the early revolution baby boom generation and the deep and sizable change that such generation changes bring (the 1960s in the West for example) and you have the potential of huge changes (politically, economically and socially). In my view this is what we have in Iran today. The election fraud was just a spark; the tinder was bone dry and ready to catch fire.

We are seeing some great signs of maturity in this movement. For example, on Ashura, in parts of Tehran the people managed to corner the security forces, the same thugs that have been beating the people up for the past six months. But once the thugs were cornered and no longer a danger to the public, the same people were protecting them and ensuring that they would not be harmed now that they were defenceless.

I therefore think the Green Movement is much more than about election fraud and also much larger than Karoubi, Mousavi, Khatami, Rafsanjani (as individual and as a group). The movement is like a train moving towards a destination far in the distant horizon and if these people want they can ride on the train with the rest of the passengers. No one is forcing them to ride this train. At the same time no one will stop them from getting off whenever they want. It would be their loss. It is however useful for the movement to have (if not leaders then) sympathizers within the IR establishment. I think Karoubi did a great job in exposing torture and rape in IRI prisons. His reasons for this could be a lot of things (personal revenge, seeking opportunity, etc) but the fact is that he did great service by his revelations.

In my view overcoming the current state of affairs with IRI and SL and his people, while preserving the integrity of the civil society in Iran is going to be a very tough job. Despite the difficulties, it looks like the movement will eventually succeed (not on 22 Bahman, at a later date). The IR reformists can be a great asset for the movement (as they have been during the past 7 months), but I am starting to get the feeling that they are being wrong footed not by the regime or SL, but by the people. As an example: the Karoubi statement on accepting the government and the subsequent “clarification” by his son. I believe that Karoubi had to do a lot of damage control not so much because of his “interview” with Fars News, but more because of his son’s more confusing original “clarification”.

I don’t believe that the people are waiting to see what Karoubi or Musavi do or say. At times when they have not said much the people have been doing their own thing (like Ashura). If they (Karoubi, Mousavi, etc) are helpful, good. If they’re not helpful, the people will still do their own thing.

[Greeny]

Re. today’s executions:
http://www.peykeiran.com/Content.aspx?ID=12798

From someone (anonynos) who says they were at one stage in the same prison cell as Mohammadreza Zamani (one of the executed).
The account says that Zamani was promised by the authorities that if he cooperates with the interrogators and in court he would be given a lenient sentence. It also claims that he was taken to a room within the prison to practice what he would say in court. The practice sessions were long (all day) and for many days and they involved the interrogators and judiciary people. He also claims that on the day before his trial, Zamani was taken to the actual court room were his trial was to be held the following day to practice what would be said in court (this time all the high ranking judicial people, including the trial judge and Mortazavi the then prosecutor of Teharn were there too). It also says that one of the officials had told Zamani that I guarantee that the sentence would be very lenient.

[sorry for posting so many things, but thought this might be of interest]

[Fereshteh]

Thanks Green,
I agree with your point. I remember myself that in an interview I had with Abtahi in 2001 when he was vice president. when I asked about the concept of religious democracy, he said this is a train with me and Khatami in it now. At some point we have to get off and the train will continue! imagine it was 9 years ago!

[Hossein]

Green is right, "a sizable majority" or, in the view of many, "a clear majority" of Iranians are not just fed up they are disgusted and are absolutely fed up with 30 years of lies and cheating and torture and rape. The Green grass roots uprising of the past summer is one of the unique events in history where fundamental change come about by the collective will of the people. Our mythos informs us of just this, and this paradigm is woven into the very fabric of our collective being. I am overwhelmed with the national manifestation of the paradigm in my life time, and I am committed to keeping vigilance concerning the fundamental issues, freedom, justice, and the equal opportunity to pursue the best happiness for my family, myself, and for our nation. The fascist thugs know they are on the way out, and that is why they are so desperately violent. Neda and all the others who were brutally killed and raped and tortured and whose lives are taken away, pilfered by the thugs, and all those hanged in the most barbaric way imaginable, all live in our hearts. The collective aah coming from each of us will together burn the thugs. We are powerful in that we are many and we have the truth on our side. Now, to get some of the western governments blinded by short term profit in mind, and by erroneously thinking that the IRI can be sought/bought to help in Iraq and Afghanestan, to see that not only the Iranian uprising against evil of the IRI is essentially right, their benefits are in its victory, certainly long term ones but also short term ones also. Can you imagine what a more stable Middle East we will have when the IRI induced culture of "death to!" and all their terrorist proxies will go away. This is what people want. Yes, even in Lebanon. People are fed up and tired of being lied to and of having their national wealth stolen and gone into the pockets of a very few grand thugs. We are united in truth, and freedom and democracy has a price, let us keep vigilance.

[Barry]

Bank/money shortages..http://persian2english.com/?p=5244

Do we know the truth of these?? What will their impact be, if true???

Barry