Sunday
Jan312010
Iran Analysis: Mousavi and Karroubi Answer the Regime --- "Defiance"
Sunday, January 31, 2010 at 7:57 
Occasionally the analysis is easy.24 hours ago, we were evaluating the regime's stepped-up threat, through the public declaration of Ayatollah Jannati, "We Will Kill You". We wrote, "This Government, this Supreme Leader has to prevent the mantle of the 1979 Revolution from being wrested from its grip on 22 Bahman (11 February)."
And we watched for a response.
Iran From the Outside: Helping Through “Active Neutrality”
Iran Document: Mousavi-Karroubi Declaration on Rights and 22 Bahman (30 January)
The Latest from Iran (31 January): No Backing Down
We got it within hours. Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi, in a meeting documented by video cameras, issued a declaration that stood upon Karroubi's own stepped-up challenge of the last week and, indeed, harked back to Karroubi's response last autumn to Government warnings of arrest: Bring. It. On.
In their expression of sorrow to the families of Mohammad Reza Ali Zamani and Arash Rahmanipour, the two men executed last week for crimes against national security, Mousavi and Karroubi offered a clever political riposte. They reassured supporters who had criticised the lack of comment over Zamani and Rahmanipour, and they made a connection with the Green Movement even though the executed prisoners were not involved with post-election resistance:
It seems like such actions is only to scare people and discourage them from participating in the 11 February [22 Bahman, anniversary of the 1979 Revolution] rally.
The widespread arrests of the political figures, journalists and academia, charged with protesting to defend their rights, are illegal. The process of obtaining confessions from these prisoners is also in contradiction to Islamic principles and the Constitution of the Islamic Republic of Iran.
Significantly, Mousavi and Karroubi renewed the latter's pointed challenge to Ayatollah Jannati, the head of the Guardian Council who is blamed for betraying the Islamic Republic by giving legitimacy to President Ahmadinejad.
Some in the Green movement will quarrel that Mousavi and Karroubi were unsubtle in declaring their allegiance to the Islamic Republic, "The majority of the people only want to regain their rights and are not seeking to overthrow the system," but this is an obvious strategy. It holds both the "middle ground" of Iranians who may be disillusioned with the Government and even the Supreme Leader but who do not want to put aside the Islamic Republic, and it makes the regime, rather than the opposition, the betrayer of and threat to the highest values of that Republic: "It seems like the rulers are even feeling danger by this voice of the people seeking justice."
And, of course, Mousavi and Karroubi offered the most defiant of responses to a regime which, over recent weeks, has tried to crush the prospect of mass demonstrations on 22 Bahman. To their followers, Mousavi and Karroubi put out the simple message: Join the Rallies. It was a message they did not give on 16 Azar (7 December) or even Ashura (27 December). Now the signal is clear: no more holding back.
Ayatollah Jannati, representing the regime, reviewed the prospects of more arrests, trials, and even executions and shouted, "Do It".
Yesterday, in a quieter but equally forceful manner, Mousavi and Karroubi responded, "Go Ahead. Try and Do It. We Do Not Give Way." Now it remains to be seen not only how the regime but also the Green movement take up that response.
On Friday
Reader Comments (31)
Arashama,
Re. Montazeri
Although Montazeri became critical of Khomeini towards the latter’s death and remained critical of IR I don’t think he became anti-Khomeini. I don’t mean to say that Montazeri was part of the establishment for the past 20 years. In fact he accepted responsibility for being the architect of veliyat-e faghih principle and apologized for it. I think that Montazeri blamed Rafsanjani and Ahmad Khomeini for creating the rift between him and Khomeini more than blaming Khomeini. In his memoirs he says that the final letters from Khomeini to him before his dismissal as deputy SL were in his opinion not from Khomeini himself.
I am not saying that Montazeri was loyal to Khomeini. My point is that followers of Montazeri (in the USA for example as you point out) will probably be OK with Mousavi going on about Khomeini as long as he is still pushing the IR in what they would perceive the right direction.
Also I think the era of zobshodegi (being melted into someone) is over in Iran. If you support someone’s point of view about a specific thing now, it does not mean that you’ll agree with that person on everything, or that you support their past actions or any possible future actions. It only means that you support that specific point of view.
Re. “Sometimes I have the impression that large parts of the establishment and its political dissidents simply fear to give up Khomeini...”
I agree. This is a problem with people who stick to and prefer ideology over everything else. It is very difficult for them to let go of something that they have based all their beliefs and actions on.
In this regards, I was originally interesting in the “Mr. Khamenei” thing with Karoubi. Whether deliberate or by mistake, it was a good step in the right direction. (remember than sometimes, mistakes lead to good thing, not always but sometimes)
Arshama,
"The big challenge would be to convince them that they will not be forced to give up all their religious beliefs, if they accept a critical approach to their religion, which has always encouraged criticism."
I think this is too much to ask from them, they won't change their approach; IRI has been their whole life; it is the same with old communists: however open-minded and reformed they may seem, it soon appears that they are just trying to smuggle their old ideas under a new disguise.
It's for a new generation to reform islam.
To Florence,
"Representatives" doesn't mean "leaders". M & K are the faces of the revolt in Iran and abroad. As such they have courageously hold their line since june 12th. Embracing a more radical stance (scrap IR) would be suicidal not only for them but also for the green movement. The regime constantly tries to portray the movement as counter-revolutionary (they burnt the founder's picture!), they would love to be vindicated and thus have a free hand for a blood bath (that some of them are already calling for). Like it or not, M & K will be key players in a positive resolution of the present crisis. Now, "is Mousavi a Gorbatchev or a Yeltsin?", is an other question.
Florence
Salut aussi and thank you ; I am very ,very, happy to be with you ( and all the readers) again, after my sad week in your area ( Montpellier) for the mourning ceremony of my father in law .Mais" la vie" continue.
Ange,
Mes condoléances for your sad news. But la vie continue, as you say, and it may have very good things in store for Iran in the coming months, who knows...
What I noticed in the recent Karoubi's interview with a british media (can't find it, was BBC or FT ?), when the reporter pressed him, about a possible change of regime, he said that the others (protesters, greens) were AHEAD of him. Dr. Mohsen Kadivar said it too, in the interview.