The Latest from Iran (9 January): Watching Carefully

2225 GMT: More on Khamenei Speech (see 1445 and 1850 GMT). An EA reader who watched the Supreme Leader's address today sends an interesting e-mail, "His speech did not sound aggressive. It sounded more as a request for calm and acting with wisdom after the fallouts of Ashura. It appeared that he was lacking in confidence. Same for the crowd."

2220 GMT: Halting the Mothers of Martyrs. An Iranian activist reports that, during their weekly march in Laleh Park, about 30 of Mothers of Martyrs in the post-election crisis and their supporters were arrested and taken to Vozara detention centre.

2200 GMT: Mortazavi --- Scapegoat or Valued Official? Iran-watchers may want to set aside a few moments for former Tehran prosecutor Saeed Mortazavi, whose future may turn upon the developments in the internal contest amidst conservatives and principlists.

Days after Mortazavi was reportedly named as prime "suspect" in the Parliamentary investigation of the deaths of Kahrizak detainees, he was formally named as President Ahmadinejad's advisor to combating smuggling of drugs and currency.

NEW Latest Iran Video: Sharif University Demonstration (9 January)
Iran: Four Responses to the “Wrong Questions” of the Leveretts (Lucas)
Iran: “What is This Opposition?” Right Answers to Wrong Questions (Shahryar)
The Latest from Iran (8 January): Karroubi Under Attack

Interpretation? Mortazavi is now the proxy in the battle between key conservatives/principlists and Ahmadinejad. The President wants him as a sign of Ahmadinejad's authority and as a firewall to any move by Parliamentary challenges; Ahmadinejad's critics see Mortazavi's downfall as a necessary victory in their battle.

Another marker in the dispute is a statement by a "pro-Government" student organisation criticising Ahmadinejad for the appointments of Mortazavi and for Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai, the former First Vice-President --- a few days after his appointment, he was removed from office amidst vehement criticism from the conservatives/principlists  who may be aiming at Mortazavi ---  who is now Ahmadinejad's chief of staff.

2150 GMT: A Release. An EA reader writers that Reza Najafi, an Iranian translator, was released from jail on Thursday. Najafi worked for Caravan Publishing, which is owned by Arash Hejazi, the doctor who tried to save the life of Neda Agha Soltan.

1920 GMT: The Khamenei Manoeuvre (Part 2). This article, from Payvand, should be read in conjunction with the passage of the Supreme Leader's speech offering some rhetorical concession on violence:

Majlis Speaker Ali Larijani has criticized the people who made derogatory remarks about Mohsen Rezaei in regard to his recent letter to the Supreme Leader about Mir-Hossein Mousavi's recent proposals. Larijani made the remarks at a meeting with national police chiefs in Qom on Thursday.

"Rezaei has been a real mujahid (one who struggles in the cause of Islam) and strived wholeheartedly during the (1980-1988) Iran-Iraq war. Naturally, since he has entered the political scene, some of his ideas may be criticized. But why do some political figures question his career as a mujahid?"

"Today, society needs convergence not discord and not steps meant to undermine recognized figures' positions," he added.

It is not too speculative to treat Larijani as a channel for the political views of the Supreme Leader, and this manoevure is a clear call --- "Back Off" --- to those "hard-liners" who have criticised Rezaei for suggesting that a deal may now be struck with Mir Hossein Mousavi.

And there's more. Larijani said, "We should not call anyone who has different views a dissident and a hypocrite. In line with the Supreme Leader's directives, all people should try to create unity in the country to prepare the ground for economic activities, investment, and development."

That passage walks hand-in-hand with this week's declarations by high-profile MP Ali Motahari, on video and in print, calling for some negotiation of views and approaches to get out of the current post-election difficulties.

1850 GMT: Mixed Messages. Borzou Daragahi of The Los Angeles Times picks up on a passage from today's Supreme Leader statement (see 1445 GMT) that may point to some pull-back from all-out confrontation:

Relevant bodies should fully respect the law in dealing with the [post-election] riots and the ongoing events. Those without any legal duty and obligations should not meddle with these affairs, Everyone should hold back from arbitrary acts and everything should go within the framework of the law.

The obvious connection to make is that Khamenei's message is, first and foremost, to the conservative/principlist politicians who have been pressing for some sign of regime concession on the crackdown. That has including Presidential candidate Mohsen Rezaei's letter and the challenge of member of Parliament Ali Motahari (covered in this week's EA updates).

Doesn't look like this part of Khamenei's message has filtered down through the ranks, however. Brigadier General Mohammad-Reza Naqdi, the head of the Basiji militia, preferred to pick up on the Supreme Leader's passage praising action against the "corrupt" and "rioters":

Now, all our people expect the security and intelligence organs as well as the judiciary to take action. People will jump to the fray if they feel these bodies are lax in their duties. People are critical of the laxness of security and judicial bodies against conspirators.

And Islamic Revolution Guard Corps commander Brigadier General Abdollah Araqi has proposed involving the Basiji militiamen, who are now within the Revolutionary Guard, in some IRGC operations.

Most Basijis are not inclined to militarism and so we have trained those interested in military activities separately within the framework of several battalions. The most-trained Basijis are now with Imam Hussein Battalions and their employment in security issues could be influential.

1840 GMT: Getting It Right About the Opposition. Following our responses to this week's attempt by Flynt and Hillary Mann Leverett to promote the legitimacy of the Ahmadinejad Government by belittling the opposition, Abbas Milani adds his critique in The New Republic. The take-away quote: "The U.S. can either stand with the people of Iran, and support their quest for democracy—a democracy, incidentally, that offers the only solution to the nuclear problem as well—or it can side with those who defend the moribund regime."

1815 GMT: The University Demonstrations Continue. Compared to the tumult of last month, Iran's universities have been relatively muted in terms of open protest (though not, it should be noted, signed of opposition such as exam boycotts). Today, however, students at Sharif University came out in a show of protest over detentions of their classmates.

We've posted three clips.

1510 GMT: I'll be back in a couple of hours to round up latest news and analysis. Thanks to EA readers for keeping the information coming in.

1500 GMT: For Mahmoud, It's the Nukes. President Ahmadinejad, meanwhile, is staying away from (or being kept from) the internal situation, as he declared in his nationally-televised speech that that further UN Security Council sanctions will not deter Iran from pursuing its nuclear programme:

[Other countries] issued several resolutions and sanctioned Iran ... They think Iranians will fall on their knees over these things but they are mistaken....We are not interested in conflicts (but) you are continually demanding things.

They should not think they can put up obstacles in Iranians' way ... I assure the people ... that the government will whole-heartedly defend Iran's rights and will not back down one iota.

1455 GMT: Reza Razaghi, one of the members of the central legal committee of Mir Hossein Mousavi, was arrested early this morning and moved to an unknown location.

Yadoolah Eslami, a former member of Parliament, has also been arrested.

1445 GMT: Khamenei's Back. Just arrived back in snowy Birmingham to find that, a few thousand miles away, the Supreme Leader has appeared publicly for the first time since Ashura. (You can have a peek at the video.)

Textbook stuff from Ayatollah Khamenei, speaking to visitors from Qom, about how appropriate it is to come down hard on the demonstrators: "The officials of the three forces saw for themselves what the nation is asking for, therefore, they must perform their duties well towards the corrupt and the rioters." (Note: I would be grateful if readers could verify whether Khamenei referred to Ahmadinejad by name.)

The Supreme Leader also played the foreign-spectre-behind-the-opposition card: "The U.S. and Britain and other arrogant powers, as well as their domestic misguided (allies), acted under the banner of struggle against the Imam (Ayatollah Khomeini) and the revolution since the very beginning of the victory of the Islamic revolution. The situation is the same now."

0320 GMT: The Newest Deal has an analysis, which matches up with some information I've received, of the offering-up of former Tehran Prosecutor General Saeed Mortazavi as a sacrifice for the deaths of detainees at Kahrizak Prison. A broader way to consider this is that Mortazavi's fate is a "firewall" for the Ahmadinejad Government. If he is punished, the line might be held against pressure on others, including the President.

0300 GMT: Friday was a day, apart from the drama of the gunfire at Mehdi Karroubi's motorcade, to pick up pieces of information and put them together. I had the pleasure of a long chat with a couple of top Iran-watchers. Parts of the discussion will be shaping analyses in forthcoming days, but the two general lines of note were "marathon, not sprint" and "change is coming".

Meanwhile, some of those pieces to note before making my way back to Britain....

The Western media is now responding quickly to headline news from Iran: within hours of the Karroubi incidence, The New York Times, The Times of London, and The Guardian of London, amongst London, had posted stories.

Iran human rights organisations reacted by building the incident into another demand on the Government, referring to possible Basiji and Revolutionary Guard involvement in the events in Qazvin and calling on the regime to ensure the safety of opposition leaders. Reformist members of Parliament, such as Mohammad Reza Tabesh, are asking Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani to safeguard "insulted" legislators.

The Government is definitely going to use the Mujahedin-e-Khalq (MKO) "terrorist" line as a battering ram against the opposition: state media indicated on Friday that 5 Ashura detainees going on trial will be charged with membership of the organisation.

More news is emerging of students at Iran universities boycotting final examinations in protest at detentions of classmates.

Comments

[Bozorg]

There's a major fallacy that makes the rounds in discussions on Iran: religious Iranians support religious government. Not so. Many pious devout Muslims loathe the regime. I have several relatives who pray 5 times a day, believe that Shia Islam is the only true religion - and, yet, hate the government.

[Scott Lucas]

Samuel,

Thank you for posting.

That was my reply to the Leveretts latest posting....

---

For the record, I did not "criticize [the Leveretts'] comparison of the December 27 and December 30 crowds by discounting the larger numbers who turned out to support the Islamic Republic on December 30 on the grounds that some of the participants in the pro-Islamic Republic rallies were reportedly ordered to take part and received free transport, cake, and tea". Some EA readers made this challenge amidst a rich debate about the numbers that also included Josh Shahryar's analysis "How Significant Was the Regime's Rally?" (http://enduringamerica.com/2009/12/31/iran-how-significant-was-the-regimes-rally/)

My own response was this:

"To bolster their argument that the Obama Administration has no choice but to engage with Ahmadinejad, the Leveretts throw out a confetti of unsupported assertions, such as 'Antigovernment Iranian Web sites claim there were “tens of thousands” of Ashura protesters; others in Iran say there were 2,000 to 4,000….Vastly more Iranians took to the streets on Dec. 30, in demonstrations organized by the government to show support for the Islamic Republic (one Web site that opposed President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s re-election in June estimated the crowds at one million people.' [I do not think the reference to the homepage of Tabnak, the newspaper linked with Presidential challenger Mohsen Rezaei, remedies this lack of support; one would need to see the specific Tabnak report to make an evaluation.]

"The Leveretts continue, 'Even President Ahmadinejad’s principal challenger in last June’s presidential election, Mir Hossein Mousavi, felt compelled to acknowledge the “unacceptable radicalism” of some Ashura protesters.' [I have never seen this phrase in Mousavi's statements, and it is notable that the Leveretts ignore the rest of Mousavi's 1 January declaration.]

"The Leveretts do put a series of challenges, discussed also at EA, about the opposition’s leadership, its strategy, and its objectives, but this is all to prop up the “default” option that the regime (whose political, religious, economic, and ideological position is not examined beyond that claim of a million protesters on its behalf on 30 December) must not only be accepted but embraced in talks.

"Just as the US Government set aside the inconvenience of Tiananmen Square 20 years ago, so it should put in the closet the trifling annoyance of those Iranians who demonstrate against rather than for the Government. The Leveretts conclude: 'As a model, the president would do well to look to China. Since President Richard Nixon’s opening there (which took place amid the Cultural Revolution), successive American administrations have been wise enough not to let political conflict — whether among the ruling elite or between the state and the public, as in the Tiananmen Square protests and ethnic separatism in Xinjiang — divert Washington from sustained, strategic engagement with Beijing. President Obama needs to begin displaying similar statesmanship in his approach to Iran.'"

I see nothing in the Leveretts' latest assertions that alters this response.

Scott Lucas

[Scott Lucas]

Arshama,

Thanks for the welcome and for the information, which supports my assessment that Khamenei is distancing himself from the President.

S.

[Khoshhal]

@Catherine note 16
In regard to the link related to NIAC and Trita parsi, I should mention that the references eg Sobhani and others are formal members of the Iranian intelegent services although they might have had some interest in MKO in the past .The fact that they come out in droves to support Trita Parsi and NIAC says it all.

My sources refer to the special interest of the American law inforcements on NIAC was based for their own concerns and informations , not on any complaints.

@Scott
The pictures I have seen on the two rallies of Opposition"Ashura and the pro-goverment well paid, fed and protected rally of 30 Dec clearly show that The government rally was a failure and alot smaller tahn the Ashura Rally.

But this not the point, the point is that if the oppositions were allowed to organise an undisturbed free rally tommorow there will be more than 10 million on the street finalising the faith of the dictatorship.

When the suppressive forces go as far as runnung over the demonatrators, shooting, arresting and beating them, we should estimate their real numbers by multiplying them by 1000 of the number we actually see in the streets.

SL is finished and has no legitimacy. we are dealing with a pure dictatorship hiding under the banner of Allah with no connection with reality but coruption.

[Samuel]

Barry,

Your comparison to East Germany misses the whole point of East European satellite states-THEY WERE SATELLITE STATES. Communism had been imposed on them from without by the Stalinist Soviet Union; when the Soviet Giant buckled under the weak, confused leadership of Gorbachev and Yeltsin there was no domestic support for the individual regimes.

Look by comparison to Cuba where a native revolution led by its own Lenin (Castro) continues to survive two decades after the fall of the Soviet Union. This in a country barely 90 miles from the United States.

[Samuel]

I am not in complete agreement with the SL's emphasis on trying to hold back those without any legal duty.

While I am not a fan of vigilante action the greens should recognize that anger at the most recent riots go well beyond Govt. spokesmen and institutions. There is genuine personal anger among many ordinary citizens at the hijacking of the Ashura commemorations and there is a real sense that it could lead to private mobilization against the greens unrelated to govt. actions. This is a very natural, in many ways a very healthy reaction that can occur in many different cultures and societies.

Some years ago a very high ranking official in a European government was assassinated by terrorists which resulted in a cabinet minister publicly offering to resign his post and lead his own private revenge seeking mission, to go, in his words, “where the police as official forces could not go”.

[Hossein]

What nonsense. Pay no head!

[Barry]

Samuel

You present a good point. Comparisons and analogies nearly always fall down somewhere - no two situations, circumstances, people, historical incidences, etc are identical. No two evils are the same.

Communism was indeed imposed on these satellite States - however they then became more enthusiastic for Communism than their masters. I could draw a comparison in this as well - Iran is more Palestinian than the Palestinians themselves.

But anyway - are you holding up Cuba as some sort of model for Iranians to emulate? Do you want to see Iran look like Cuba in another 20 years ??? I don't believe it will, because the current Iranian Regime will not last that long. That is because (dare I be just a little racist?) I would not compare Iranian people to Cuban people!

As for weak, confused leadership - it is a bit difficult to know who is the leader in Iran.

Barry

[Samuel]

Scott,

Thank you for your response to the Leveretts. Your opinion is always respected even when it is disagreed with.

[Samuel]

Barry,

I am not a fan of communism but I do not see how anynone cannot respect what a little country like Cuba has done in the face of American Imperialism for half a century. My own academic and professional interest lies in the area of expanding Iranian-Latin American ties (commercial/bussiness, economic, cultural, academic etc.) an area which thankfully has seen many, many successes in the last few years. It is an area which will continue to grow exponentially in the future.

[Barry]

Samuel

I think therefore that a very basic difference between you and I is that I do not regard the US to be "American Imperialists". That kind of statement has been loosely and meaninglessly thrown around by Communists and Socialists (of different shades of pink) for half a century.

I can remember the time when even students in Australian Universities threw the term around. That was in the days when it was so "de riguer" to be a Socialist. :)

Like most /all? revolutions (and even religions), the original Cuban revolutionary cause/impetus/spark of electricity was probably well justified - but it has since been corrupted by individual people and groups who have gained much from it and do not want to let that go. What do they say? Power corrupts - and absolute power corrupts absolutely.

Barry

[Barry]

BTW - if you are looking for Nirvana or human perfection, you will not find them in the US.

But for me- the US is a "light on the hill", compared to countries like Iran, Cuba , North Korea, Zimbabwe.

Barry

[Samuel]

Barry,

It is not just Communists and Socialists (by the way the Tudeh party of Iran, the communists was made up of the worst traitors) who spoke or wrote about Imperialism. If you read Imam Khomeini you will soon realize that along with the Islamic commentary you have one of the best analysis of Imperialism ever written anywhere in the world.

[Barry]

Samuel

"If you read Imam Khomeini "

I doubt that I would ever be able to get through it. I have never been able to get through "Mein Kampf" or "Das Capital" either - even though have tried many times.
I can't even get through the "Bible".

Barry

[Ali]

I think the Penguin Publishing group should make a "Complete Idiot's Guide" of the Imam Khomeini memos.
http://us.penguingroup.com/static/pages/cig/index.html

Obviously you'll have to be an idiot to read them.

[khoshhal]

@ all
This Samuel guy seems to be good at confusing fact with fiction. He talks about the redime's militia against the green movement.
He should answer this question that who should be honestly angree the victim of an election fraus eg Green movement or the winner of the fraudulant stolen election.
The fact is that the regime'phalanges have no right to be angree while it is the green movement has every reason to be angree as they have shouted "where is my vote"

Samuel tries to ignor a fact and change the place of a victim with guilty, This classic logic and style of reasoning through the regime elements from SL to AN and now Samuel.
Down wiyh Mollahs.

[Scott Lucas]

Samuel,

And thank you for the generous words.

S.

[Megan]

About the one million man and women and children march for regime, here is the naked truth, one million (or whatever) hungry people march. They are stepping on Khamenei after they get their free food: http://www.peykeiran.com/Content.aspx?ID=11667

Take this to the bank LEVERETTS and supporters of LEVERETTS .

Your Proud Mohareb

[khoshhal]

@Megan
The best estimate of the government rally by organs outise the government was 20-40 thousand and the were either forced,paid or threatened to attend otherwise they will loose their jobs. The were also shiped in without any threat of violance against them unlike ther green Ashural rally.

[Catherine]

RE 2220 GMT: Halting the Mothers of Martyrs. An Iranian activist reports that, during their weekly march in Laleh Park, about 30 of Mothers of Martyrs in the post-election crisis and their supporters were arrested and taken to Vozara detention centre.

Here are more details from http://www.iranhumanrights.org
30 Members of Mourning Mothers Detained
(9 January 2010) An eyewitness, in an exclusive interview with the Campaign, described today’s event as the following: “I was in Laleh Park today around 4 p.m. More than a hundred police and plain clothes agents had occupied the park and its perimeter. They would not allow anyone to even sit on the benches or congregate. Every Saturday, the Mourning Mothers and their supporters gather in the Park. Today after about 70 mothers had entered the park, security forces engaged them and started chasing them, grabbing them, and forcing them into police vans. They used a lot of violence and insults in the process. One of the mothers who is 75 years old has been taken to a hospital.”

[Bill]

Arshama,

I am torn over sanctions simply because I do not want them to worsen the plight of the people. We all know the regime controls the majority of the economy through the IRGC and the Bonyands. These two entities alone control vast portions of the economy from telecommunications, food, cars, soft drinks, and any number of other items. To impose sanctions on them will have a negative effect on the people. The question is how to employ sanctions without impacting the people--I just don't see how it can be done. On the other hand I don't see another viable solution. What to do is vexing me!!! It is sort of situaiton in which your damned if you do or damned if you don't. If the people of Iran are willing to withstand new sanctions in the hopes of ousting the regime maybe this is the way to go. Appreciate your thoughts.

Thx
Bill

[Bill]

Catherine,

Thanks again for the excellent article links!

Thx
Bill

[Catherine]

Bill - glad they were of interest!
If you read the article 'Steady Drip of Leaks Corrodes the Core of the Iranian Regime' (http://www.nytimes.com/2010/01/07/world/middleeast/07leaks.html?em) then Anthony's post 2 in “The Latest from Iran (10 January): “Middle” Ground?” will make sense even if we can't read the documents:

Government documents leaked, preparations for 22 bahman
http://onlymehdi.saharkhiz.net/archives/195859603

[teez negah]

Cuba- a land where people are educated but groan at their personal economic hardship compared to other LATAM countries such as Chile,Argentina and Brazil. As several cubans remarked to me it is a country where a doctor earns $20 a month , an engineer $17 a month- where as tips from serving in tourism (provided you are connected to get a job) can get you that amount in a day from holiday makers. It is a quasi failed state that has not evolved beyond the central tenants of Castro's socilaism. However, the country is moving on in the 21 st century and is already different form 5 years ago.

Will Iran be different in 5 years time for the better ? Certainly the government/S.L seems to be incapable since Ashura to come up with a dynamic formula(i.e. not squashing or repressing opposition voices) to save the country. It appears that unlike Cuba it cannot face the reality of change and evolve with it. A vicious circle producing radicalisation on both sides. I am surprised that the S.L has not been deft enough to take on Rezaie's reccomendations. Is his hand forced by certain factions of the IRGC ? IAre these factions of the IRGC and AN so blinkered that want to hit the wall ? Does not look good.

[Bill]

Samuel,

Do you note the irony of exclaiming the defiance of Cuba? Yes they have stood up against the US, but was it the will of their people? The irony of your statement is the fact that the majority of Cubans if given the chance would flee to the the land of the "Great Satan." Thousands try to leave every year. Some don't make it but many do and it is why Miami is often called little Havana. Like Iran the Cuban regime stays in power through force and totalitarian means. Communism has never been about the will of the people but the will of government that rules the day. Communism like the regime of Iran fosters a monoculture that flys right in the face of the nature of man. They may flourish for a time but faced with man's natural tendancies they will collapse. They collapse simply because they refuse to consider change. Without change you can never hope to get better and that my friend is the crux of the problem for communists and Islamist who espouse their utopian monocultures.

Another irony is the Iranian regime's cry of the "evil" American imperialism. Last time I looked a central goal of the regime is to export the revolution and bring Islam to all. This is a tune shared by all Islamists trying to bring about the golden days of the Caliphate. Quite funny considering they harp on other's perceived "imperialism" when the very essence of their goals are inherently imperialistic. No doubt the US has caused a lot of grief (ie Iraq which was downright evil) but you have to ask yourself is it imperialistic for the goals of state to see other people ruled by freedom and democracy? For those who espouse true freedom unshackled from religion and democracy the answer is no. For those who cling to the monoculture and believe force is an option to keep it in place the answer is yes.

The fact remains the US has fought unjust wars but it has always remained commited to "exporting" freedom and democracy for every person. While the Iraq war was wrong at least now the people of Iraq rule themselves. To boot the Shias now control the government--I am sure Iran was quite happy about that. Of course the rabid Sunni Islamists weren't happy because they no longer were able to "yoke" the shias of Iraq anymore. You have to ask yourself if the US was trully imperialistic why would we pay to rebuild what we destroyed, allow the government to elect it's own officials, allow oil contracts to go to state's such as China that openly sided with Sadam, and most of all didn't try to impose Christianity/our culture on them? Shouldn't we be colonizing them, imposing our religion/culture on them, and stealing all their natural resources? Yet we are not. This false Islamist cry of "imperialism" is the canard espoused by Edward Said that has essentially trapped the Islamic world in a state of victimhood. This has rendered huge sections of the Islamic world literally unable to realize their problems are often of their own making. It is always the conspiracies of the other and the "enemy" who is at fault. Just ask yourself what the US would do if they were allowed to "control" Iran vs. Iran being allowed to "control" the US? One would "impose" a democarcy that does away with the imposition while the other would "impose" a theocracy that would perpetuate the imposition. So who is trully imperialistic?

Thx
Bill