The Latest from Iran (9 January): Watching Carefully

2225 GMT: More on Khamenei Speech (see 1445 and 1850 GMT). An EA reader who watched the Supreme Leader's address today sends an interesting e-mail, "His speech did not sound aggressive. It sounded more as a request for calm and acting with wisdom after the fallouts of Ashura. It appeared that he was lacking in confidence. Same for the crowd."

2220 GMT: Halting the Mothers of Martyrs. An Iranian activist reports that, during their weekly march in Laleh Park, about 30 of Mothers of Martyrs in the post-election crisis and their supporters were arrested and taken to Vozara detention centre.

2200 GMT: Mortazavi --- Scapegoat or Valued Official? Iran-watchers may want to set aside a few moments for former Tehran prosecutor Saeed Mortazavi, whose future may turn upon the developments in the internal contest amidst conservatives and principlists.

Days after Mortazavi was reportedly named as prime "suspect" in the Parliamentary investigation of the deaths of Kahrizak detainees, he was formally named as President Ahmadinejad's advisor to combating smuggling of drugs and currency.

NEW Latest Iran Video: Sharif University Demonstration (9 January)
Iran: Four Responses to the “Wrong Questions” of the Leveretts (Lucas)
Iran: “What is This Opposition?” Right Answers to Wrong Questions (Shahryar)
The Latest from Iran (8 January): Karroubi Under Attack

Interpretation? Mortazavi is now the proxy in the battle between key conservatives/principlists and Ahmadinejad. The President wants him as a sign of Ahmadinejad's authority and as a firewall to any move by Parliamentary challenges; Ahmadinejad's critics see Mortazavi's downfall as a necessary victory in their battle.

Another marker in the dispute is a statement by a "pro-Government" student organisation criticising Ahmadinejad for the appointments of Mortazavi and for Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai, the former First Vice-President --- a few days after his appointment, he was removed from office amidst vehement criticism from the conservatives/principlists  who may be aiming at Mortazavi ---  who is now Ahmadinejad's chief of staff.

2150 GMT: A Release. An EA reader writers that Reza Najafi, an Iranian translator, was released from jail on Thursday. Najafi worked for Caravan Publishing, which is owned by Arash Hejazi, the doctor who tried to save the life of Neda Agha Soltan.

1920 GMT: The Khamenei Manoeuvre (Part 2). This article, from Payvand, should be read in conjunction with the passage of the Supreme Leader's speech offering some rhetorical concession on violence:

Majlis Speaker Ali Larijani has criticized the people who made derogatory remarks about Mohsen Rezaei in regard to his recent letter to the Supreme Leader about Mir-Hossein Mousavi's recent proposals. Larijani made the remarks at a meeting with national police chiefs in Qom on Thursday.

"Rezaei has been a real mujahid (one who struggles in the cause of Islam) and strived wholeheartedly during the (1980-1988) Iran-Iraq war. Naturally, since he has entered the political scene, some of his ideas may be criticized. But why do some political figures question his career as a mujahid?"

"Today, society needs convergence not discord and not steps meant to undermine recognized figures' positions," he added.

It is not too speculative to treat Larijani as a channel for the political views of the Supreme Leader, and this manoevure is a clear call --- "Back Off" --- to those "hard-liners" who have criticised Rezaei for suggesting that a deal may now be struck with Mir Hossein Mousavi.

And there's more. Larijani said, "We should not call anyone who has different views a dissident and a hypocrite. In line with the Supreme Leader's directives, all people should try to create unity in the country to prepare the ground for economic activities, investment, and development."

That passage walks hand-in-hand with this week's declarations by high-profile MP Ali Motahari, on video and in print, calling for some negotiation of views and approaches to get out of the current post-election difficulties.

1850 GMT: Mixed Messages. Borzou Daragahi of The Los Angeles Times picks up on a passage from today's Supreme Leader statement (see 1445 GMT) that may point to some pull-back from all-out confrontation:

Relevant bodies should fully respect the law in dealing with the [post-election] riots and the ongoing events. Those without any legal duty and obligations should not meddle with these affairs, Everyone should hold back from arbitrary acts and everything should go within the framework of the law.

The obvious connection to make is that Khamenei's message is, first and foremost, to the conservative/principlist politicians who have been pressing for some sign of regime concession on the crackdown. That has including Presidential candidate Mohsen Rezaei's letter and the challenge of member of Parliament Ali Motahari (covered in this week's EA updates).

Doesn't look like this part of Khamenei's message has filtered down through the ranks, however. Brigadier General Mohammad-Reza Naqdi, the head of the Basiji militia, preferred to pick up on the Supreme Leader's passage praising action against the "corrupt" and "rioters":

Now, all our people expect the security and intelligence organs as well as the judiciary to take action. People will jump to the fray if they feel these bodies are lax in their duties. People are critical of the laxness of security and judicial bodies against conspirators.

And Islamic Revolution Guard Corps commander Brigadier General Abdollah Araqi has proposed involving the Basiji militiamen, who are now within the Revolutionary Guard, in some IRGC operations.

Most Basijis are not inclined to militarism and so we have trained those interested in military activities separately within the framework of several battalions. The most-trained Basijis are now with Imam Hussein Battalions and their employment in security issues could be influential.

1840 GMT: Getting It Right About the Opposition. Following our responses to this week's attempt by Flynt and Hillary Mann Leverett to promote the legitimacy of the Ahmadinejad Government by belittling the opposition, Abbas Milani adds his critique in The New Republic. The take-away quote: "The U.S. can either stand with the people of Iran, and support their quest for democracy—a democracy, incidentally, that offers the only solution to the nuclear problem as well—or it can side with those who defend the moribund regime."

1815 GMT: The University Demonstrations Continue. Compared to the tumult of last month, Iran's universities have been relatively muted in terms of open protest (though not, it should be noted, signed of opposition such as exam boycotts). Today, however, students at Sharif University came out in a show of protest over detentions of their classmates.

We've posted three clips.

1510 GMT: I'll be back in a couple of hours to round up latest news and analysis. Thanks to EA readers for keeping the information coming in.

1500 GMT: For Mahmoud, It's the Nukes. President Ahmadinejad, meanwhile, is staying away from (or being kept from) the internal situation, as he declared in his nationally-televised speech that that further UN Security Council sanctions will not deter Iran from pursuing its nuclear programme:

[Other countries] issued several resolutions and sanctioned Iran ... They think Iranians will fall on their knees over these things but they are mistaken....We are not interested in conflicts (but) you are continually demanding things.

They should not think they can put up obstacles in Iranians' way ... I assure the people ... that the government will whole-heartedly defend Iran's rights and will not back down one iota.

1455 GMT: Reza Razaghi, one of the members of the central legal committee of Mir Hossein Mousavi, was arrested early this morning and moved to an unknown location.

Yadoolah Eslami, a former member of Parliament, has also been arrested.

1445 GMT: Khamenei's Back. Just arrived back in snowy Birmingham to find that, a few thousand miles away, the Supreme Leader has appeared publicly for the first time since Ashura. (You can have a peek at the video.)

Textbook stuff from Ayatollah Khamenei, speaking to visitors from Qom, about how appropriate it is to come down hard on the demonstrators: "The officials of the three forces saw for themselves what the nation is asking for, therefore, they must perform their duties well towards the corrupt and the rioters." (Note: I would be grateful if readers could verify whether Khamenei referred to Ahmadinejad by name.)

The Supreme Leader also played the foreign-spectre-behind-the-opposition card: "The U.S. and Britain and other arrogant powers, as well as their domestic misguided (allies), acted under the banner of struggle against the Imam (Ayatollah Khomeini) and the revolution since the very beginning of the victory of the Islamic revolution. The situation is the same now."

0320 GMT: The Newest Deal has an analysis, which matches up with some information I've received, of the offering-up of former Tehran Prosecutor General Saeed Mortazavi as a sacrifice for the deaths of detainees at Kahrizak Prison. A broader way to consider this is that Mortazavi's fate is a "firewall" for the Ahmadinejad Government. If he is punished, the line might be held against pressure on others, including the President.

0300 GMT: Friday was a day, apart from the drama of the gunfire at Mehdi Karroubi's motorcade, to pick up pieces of information and put them together. I had the pleasure of a long chat with a couple of top Iran-watchers. Parts of the discussion will be shaping analyses in forthcoming days, but the two general lines of note were "marathon, not sprint" and "change is coming".

Meanwhile, some of those pieces to note before making my way back to Britain....

The Western media is now responding quickly to headline news from Iran: within hours of the Karroubi incidence, The New York Times, The Times of London, and The Guardian of London, amongst London, had posted stories.

Iran human rights organisations reacted by building the incident into another demand on the Government, referring to possible Basiji and Revolutionary Guard involvement in the events in Qazvin and calling on the regime to ensure the safety of opposition leaders. Reformist members of Parliament, such as Mohammad Reza Tabesh, are asking Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani to safeguard "insulted" legislators.

The Government is definitely going to use the Mujahedin-e-Khalq (MKO) "terrorist" line as a battering ram against the opposition: state media indicated on Friday that 5 Ashura detainees going on trial will be charged with membership of the organisation.

More news is emerging of students at Iran universities boycotting final examinations in protest at detentions of classmates.

Comments

[Bill]

Catherine,

I actually follow Mehdi Saharkhiz everyday through his facebook page. I sent him a friend invite and he included me. I had not noticed this article. I will hunt down my Iranian friend again and force her to read it to me. Her mom is in from Iran so when she resists I just hand it to her mom and she make her do it!!! :)

Thx
Bill

[Megan]

"even the dissident journalist Akbar Ganji warns Iranian oppositionists that “it should not be forgotten that most of Iran’s people are still religious…”.

Ganji is out to lunch. It is sad to see that he still thinks he is in Evin prison. Ganji is entitled to his views but I hope he stops being a wind-up robot for democracy Ganji way.

Being religious and having a government that does operate under any religious banner are entirely different. Ganji and Kadivar and the rest of people in their camp once again are on the path to exploit religious people (population in small cities/countryside and blue-collar workers in large cities) that separation of state and mosque means a country ruled by atheists. That is exactly the path Khomeini took to exploit the masses and that path has led Iran to today's giant mess.

Having a government whose officials are not allowed to wear their religions on their sleeves does not mean you cannot be a devout religious person, Muslim or otherwise. Mullahs and mullah supporters, however, scare naïve people that a secular government will lead to corruption, immorality, booze, drug, promiscuity, etc, etc. The reality is that today in Iran there are more corruption, drinking, drug use and immorality among those who claim to be devout Muslim like members of IRGC and Basiji than young and educated masses. Ask any prostitute in Iran and they will tell you their Johns are Basiji and Pasdaran. You can do a Web search and find that for yourself.

I am very concerned that those who have benefited from the current system will succeed to scare and exploit people as they did in 1979. I really hope for a leader to rise up soon and lead people to understand that a secular government does not mean people cannot practice Islam or cannot be a devout Muslim, but it is a government that let them chose what religion to practice and how to practice it. It also means that their votes and their say in government affair is not weighed any more or any less that those who chose other religions or chose not to practice any religions. I really hope this leader lead people to the truth that a secular government is not an immoral government and that Muslims and Islam do not have monopoly in morality. There are decent and evil people in every faith as well as among those who do not practice any religion.

I am not, however, optimistic that before I die I will see Iran and Iranians cross this threshold and recognize that they had allowed to be led and fooled by people, mullahs, who do not have one half of their intellect for far too long and say to them “not anymore.”

Singed: Khamenei’s Mohareb

[Megan]

Khoshhal,

I know I was making fun of the Cyber Basiji who was defending LEVERETTS. The 20 to 40 thousands were there for free food, take a look at the photos in the link: http://www.peykeiran.com/Content.aspx?ID=11667

Signed: Mohareb

[Megan]

Catherine, Khoshhal,

A reader with the name of Afi posted a link to http://www.iranian-americans.com/ on EA on January 6: http://enduringamerica.com/2010/01/06/the-latest-from-iran-6-january-distractions/#comments

I checked it and on the right hand side in the English version is a list of documents that have become available in the discovery process in a lawsuit NIAC has filed. I have not finished reading them all so I cannot comment yet.

In the Farsi version http://www.iranian-americans.com/persian/ during an interview between Alireza Mibadei and Hassan Daei on December 11, 2009 a reference to a discussion between Trita Parsi and an Iranian professor is made in which the Iranian professor asks Parsi if his last name is Persian or has its roots in Parsi of India. Mr. Parsi does not answer the question and threaten to sue the TV broadcasting station and the host with discrimination lawsuit and racism.

Now I am wondering if anyone knows where in Iran Trita Parsi was born. I do not think Trita is a Persian name unless is short for another name. Does anyone know more??

[Dennis Hill]

Boy, the NIAC-haters are growing so desperate that they even question whether Trita is an Iranian name. Smells like the Birthers, questioning whether Obama is a Christian and whether he was born in the US. The right wing seems not to have a lot of creativity.

For the record, based on a simple web search, Trita is a Zoroastrian name, found in the holy book of Zoroaster.

Since this is getting so ridiculous, perhaps EA should start filter out non-sense accusations on this forum?

[Catherine]

@ Dennis
And in the 2nd article I posted a link to in post 16 above, the authoer refers to him as such: "the group's founder, a Zoroastrian by the name of Trita Parsi".

[Scott Lucas]

Dennis,

Thanks --- as a moderator, my opinion is not to intervene if a post is not abusive. I believe that non-sense accusations will be found out and, in the end, reflect more on the accuser than on the accused.

S.

[Scott Lucas]

Dennis,

Thanks --- as a moderator, my approach is not to intervene if a post is not abusive. I believe that non-sense accusations will be found out and, in the end, reflect more on the accuser than on the accused.

S.

[Samuel]

Bill,

As I said my own professional interest is in expanding Iran-Latin American ties in all spheres so I am very familiar with the history of the Caribbean, Central and South America.

First of all I do not know the basis for this statement: "the fact that the majority of Cubans if given the chance would flee to the the land of the “Great Satan.” ".

Yes many Cubans have fled, it happens in all revolutions. Look at the White Russians after the October revolution, the Chinese who went to Taiwan and numerous other locations after 1948, and those who fled Iran after 1979. The truth is that many of those greens who worship the west today should follow that path and simply leave the country.

Of the Cubans who would flee now most would do so for economic reasons and who but the US has been most responsible for the economic problems in Cuba over half a century? (I do not discount the inherent inefficiencies in Communist systems and yes Cuba should have followed the Chinese model starting about 20 yeas ago)

"The fact remains the US has fought unjust wars but it has always remained commited to “exporting” freedom and democracy for every person."

Just limiting it to Latin America this is the country that in the 20th century invaded or intervened numerous times in Cuban, Haiti, the Dominican Republic, Grenada, Mexico, El Salvador, Guatemala, Nicaragua, Panama, Colombia, Venezuela, Honduras, Bolivia, Chile (overthrowing the democratically elected Salvador Allende). In Cuba the Americans reserved the right to intervene at will under the flimiest of reasons (the Platt Amendment). To this day the US illegally occupies Cuban territorry, the Guantanamo prison, where they torture Muslims.

American Imperialism is very real even if they don't employ the old fashioned trapppinsgs of old-style British or French Colonialism.

[teez negah]

True- Cuba should have followed the chinese model 20 years ago just as many Chinese advisors to Iran warned the I.R. leadership 15 years ago to reform the economy more radically. Everything was done on a piecemeal basis in Iran as a reaction to this advise...now,the country is paying a price for taking the message half on board...

[Arshama]

Bill,

Thanks for your comments. I agree with you that sanctions are very problematic, but the alternative (war) is even worse. It seems however as if the US administration is aware of this problem and is going to start sanctions by targeting specific companies owned by the IRGC, e.g. Iranian Telecom and Iralco (aluminum products)
http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5gYlmDBAgP8qLxnln1K5kuE7W_SKw
I still hope that we get down this regime before heavy sanctions are applied, and I think petroleum shortage will speed up this process.

Megan,

This regime will come down during your lifetime, and you will return to our homeland. "Yousef gomgashte baaz aayad be Kan'an, gham makhor ..."

sabz bashid!

Arshama

[Samuel]

Bill,

To address your other points. The IRI is the center of the anti-imperialist and anti-Zionist struggle in the region. As such it does intervene in other countries most often as an ally of Shiite communities that are under threat e.g., Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Shiites in Yemen but also the Palestinians in Hamas who are 100% Sunni and have no interest in becoming Shiites.

This is a very pragmatic policy. Please note that Iran's closest ally is Syria which is about as secular a society as you will find in the region with a large and thriving Christian population. Is Iran trying to impose the Islamic revolution on Syria? Of course not. Please do not conflate Shiite efforts with those of Wahabbi Sunni fundamentalists. The goals are very different as you know and the Taliban types despise the Shiites almost as much as they hate the the Americans. Over the years the Taliban types have damaged many Shiite Shrines and killed countless of innocent Shiites for no other reason than they were Shiites.

I reject your description of the IRI as refusing to "consider change." The nation is not married to a particular economic ideology like the communists and changes in economic policy will occur with different administrations. Rafsanjani, Khatami and AN have all followed different paths and ironically it was Raf that initiated the IRGC's involvement in the economy as part of the reconstruction efforts following the war. Economic prosperity does not need western style democracy as China has demonstrated and as Lee Kuan Yew, the former leader of Singapore has eloquently argued.

If what you mean by "change" is the overthrow of the system they yes of course that will be rejected.

[Barry]

Bill

With regard to sanctions on IRGC related entities affecting the general population of Iran--

it is quite possible that the general population are not aware of the reach of the IRGC into the Iranian economy and hence into their lives. Or it could be that they are aware but don't really care - at this time. Either way, they need to find out - and need to care. If this means interference into the internal affairs of a country (Iran) - so be it. Iran's negative influence on the world affects the whole world. That is sufficient reason to interfere - but this time and now, using real and policed sanctions.

Barry

[ange paris]

Scott
Have you digested his article " the beginning of the end " just after the uprising of the iranian people ? even you, a foreigner , believed at that time (and has believed) in green movement ! I hope that what they say,( the supporters of Mr Parsi), is true and he works for the sake of green movement and the millions of iranians that couldn't live in these conditions ! so it's more fairer to say : " the future will show the truth".

[Thomas]

Samuel,

Glad to see you are opening up about yourself this new year. It earns one respect and credibilty about their views.

From a previous thread, a comment you may have missed:

"Even an Islamic Revolution requires popular support to sustain itself.

Ruhollah Khomeini understood that."

This is the issue facing the current IRI leadership.

[Megan]

Denniss Hill,

Thank you for clarifying origin of Trita Parsi’s first name. Do you know in which city Mr.Trita Parsi was born?

EA does not cover Obama constitutional legibility for president. This source http://federalistblog.us/2008/11/natural-born_citizen_defined.html analyzes Article 2, Section 1, Clause 5 of U.S. Constititution pertaining to eligibility for the office of president.

If you want to blast the right wing, as you call them, there are plenty of places (far too many) to go and here are a few: http://www.freerepublic.com/tag/certifigate/index, and this one that compiles all blogs on Obama topic: http://investigatingobama.blogspot.com/. Have fun blasting off.

Lastly raising questions and wanting to hear all sides is not nonsense, blasting people who asks question is nonsense.

[Samuel]

Megan,

"EA does not cover Obama constitutional legibility for president."

I'm not really sure you should take it upon yourself to determine for everyone what EA "covers" or "does not cover".

Regards,

Samuel (proud member of the Cyber Basij---thanks for giving us the name)

[saugiklisvx]

just signed up at www.enduringamerica.com and want say hi to all the guys/gals of this board!