Iran Analysis: "Supreme Leader Warns Rafsanjani" --- The Sequels

A valued EA source takes us through the follow-up to the Supreme Leader's Tuesday speech, which we read initially as a warning to Hashemi Rafansanjani and then as a possible warning to other conservative/principlist critics of the Ahmadinejad Government:

1. Ali Larijani backs up Ayatollah Khamenei, but does he also strike at Government "extremists"?:

I know that the Supreme Leader does not like that a group of people under the title of defending the Supreme Leader oppress the people and become hardliners....We can not run the country by socialist economy and the economy (economy activities) should be handed over to people.

Iran Analysis: The Supreme Leader Warns Rafsanjani
The Latest from Iran: If Khamenei’s Other Shoe Drops (20 January)

2. Hojatoleslam Ruhollah Hosseinian, a fervent Ahmadinejad suppporter in Parliament, has gone for an all-out attack: he strikes at Hashemi Rafsanjani, Green movement leaders, the reformist Association of Combatant Clergy, and even Ali Larijani:

This person (Rafsanjani)...is in the government and one of the officials because of the mercy of the leadership, Today he is the lawyer of the reformists and defends them.

We wish that Mr. Hashemi stays loyal to the leader and the revolution, but unfortunately we have to say that he --- in the recent months ---- has been managing the opposition wave. For how long, do you want to speak ambiguously and call the rioters of Ashura "people"?

Majma’ Rohannioon Mobarez (the Association of Combatant Clergys) also issued a statement in support of the opposition protests. I had told one of the members of Association of Combatant Clergy that if I was a judge, I would consider this statement as being "war against God" (mohareb)....

One of the reason why I wanted to resign (as a member of Parliament) is the behaviour and approach of the Parlimant Speaker (Ali Larijani) because we wanted the dismissal of Mr. Mohtashamipour (head of the Palestine Defence Committee), however Mr. Larijani did not pay attention.

3. Hojatoleslam Ibrahimi, of the central council of the Association of Combatant Clergy Association and a member of Parlaiment, offers conciliation. He believes that the deep friendship between the supreme leader and Hashemi Rafsanjani cannot be denied and criticises those  who are trying to cause division between them.

4. Alef Newspaper seems to echo Larijani, strongly criticising those who act inappropriately with the excuse of defending the Supreme Leader. It links an "extremism" which tried to assassinate reformist politician Saeed Hajjarian and attacked dormitories on the Tehran University with the crimes of Kahrizak Prison.

As the 40th Day memorial of Grand Ayatollah Montazeri approaches, Alef reminds readers that, even though the Supreme Leader issued a statement upon the demise of Montazeri, some extremists attacked Ayatollah house and broke the windows. Those extremists also treat other Revolution figures (e.g. Rafsanjani) the same way.

http://alef.ir/1388/content/view/62468

The Latest from Iran (18 January): Firewall

2205 GMT: And Here's Another One. Looks like the campaign against Hashemi Rafsanjani hasn't stopped. Someone in the regime has ensured that he will not be leading the ceremony at Imam Khomeini's memorial on 11 Bahman (1 February), the start of celebrations of Iran's Islamic Revolution.

2200 GMT: Political Teasers. While I've been out, EA readers have been sending in a series of interesting stories on the manoeuvres inside the establishment --- we'll have the best of them, with an analysis, to start Tuesday morning. Meanwhile....

Ayande News continues its campaign against former 1st Vice President and Ahmadinejad aide Esfandiar Rahim-Mashi. The newspaper features the claim that several Rahim-Mashai relatives have been appointed to the board of the state automobile company Saipa, taking a controlling interest.

Rahim-Mashai's son, Reza, has become managing director of Saipa's investment branch while his nephew is now the company's head of business development.

NEW Iran Analysis: How “Mohareb” Death Sentences May Hurt Regime
Latest Iran Video: Marandi on CNN on Detainee Abuses “Mortazavi to Blame” (17 January)
Iran: The Ali-Mohammadi Case “A Political Assassination”
Iran: The Ali-Mohammadi Funeral “The Stolen Coffin”
UPDATED Iran Video & Translation: Dr Etaat’s Opposition On State Media (14 January — Parts 3-5)
Latest from Iran (17 January): Setting Aside Diversions

2150 GMT: More on the assassination of prosecutor Vali Haji Gholizadeh, shot dead in front of his home in Khoy City in Iran's West Azerbaijan province, bordering Turkey and Iraq. A police official says, "A special unit has been formed to identify those behind this assassination."

1935 GMT: Another 5-Point Plan (cont.). Radio Zaamaneh has published an English-language summary of the 5-point plan presented by 34 Iranian women (see 1615 GMT). The signatories, call for an “annulment of all discriminatory and anti-women laws, recognition of women’s right to their body and mind, ending violence against women and prosecution of all perpetrators of the crimes committed in the past thirty years” as part of a resolution of the current crisis. They also support "freedom of thought, speech and assembly", call for an end to torture and the death penalty, and demand “the immediate and unconditional release of all political prisoners”.

The 34 women put their 5 points within the framework of the Islamic Republic, "not changing the president or limiting the power of the leadership; but rather the realization of fundamental and structural changes”.

1920 GMT: Vali Haji Gholizadeh, the prosecutor of Khoy, a town in western Azerbaijan in northwestern Iran, has been killed by a gunshot.

1653 GMT: I'll be away for a few hours for academic and media work, returning about 2100 GMT for an evening update.

1650 GMT: Norooz is reporting that the Qoba Mosque in Shiraz, which was occupied by pro-Government groups who closed the offices of Ayatollah Dastgheib, has reopened.

1615 GMT: Another 5-Point Plan. Responding to and interacting with Mir Hossein Mousavi's 5-point proposal of 1 January, 34 Iranian women have published their own 5-point manifesto for resolution of the political crisis.

1440 GMT: Demonstrations and Trials. One reliable Iranian activist is updating on today's "mohareb" trial of five accused, while another is reporting that 100s of family members of detainees have gathered outside the Tehran Prosecutor General's office.

1145 GMT: Poking at "Foreign Intervention", Chapter 2 (see 0940 GMT). Minister of Interior Mostafa Mohammad Najjar has declared the Islamic Republic will have its revenge on "foreign elements" (and, yes, he means you, Israel) over the assassination of Professor Massoud Ali-Mohammadi.

1130 GMT: The "Mohareb" Trials. Iranian Students News Agency is reporting that five protesters, detained on Ashura (27 December), have gone on trial, accused of "mohareb" (war against God), a charge that could carry the death sentence. The Islamic Republic News Agency has said the five are members of the People's Mujahideen Organisation of Iran (PMOI).

See our related analysis, "How 'Mohareb' Death Sentences May Hurt Regime".

0940 GMT: Mottaki to Britain "We Will Decide If We Like You". Today's poke at "foreign intervention" comes from Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki, who says: "Iran has carried out a thorough study on its relations with Britain in different fields particularly over the past six months. There are 10-12 working fields between Iran and the UK. We are currently reviewing each area."

No word yet of British panic over the statement.

0800 GMT: The Regime and Mohareb. We've posted a report by Edward Yeranian of Voice of America which points to risks for the regime in threatening death sentences for protesters because they are "mohareb" (warriors against God).

0700 GMT: More on Target Mortazavi. Press TV's website is headlining the letter by 55 members of Parliament to President Ahmadinejad and the head of Iran's judiciary, Sadegh Larijani, "demanding clarification" on the Kahrizak prison enquiry and the case of Saeed Mortazavi.
0650 GMT: And If You're Really Into Battles. On the Ahmadinejad v. Rafsanjani front, Hojetolelam Saghaye Biriaa, an advisor to Ahmadinejad, used a speech to criticise the Green Movement and then attacked the former President, "The Leader’s approach and beliefs are completely different to those of Hashemi Rafsanjani, exactly like Imam Khomeini, whose understanding and beliefs were different to the approach and beliefs of Ayatollah Montazeri."

0640 GMT: Motahhari v. The Government (Round 45). Just to highlight another running story, the "challenge within" from member of Parliament and Larijani ally Ali Motahhari, here are the weekend's headlines:

Motahhari directly criticised Ahmadinejad, accusing him as being one of the principle causes of the post-election crisis and saying he has to apologize to people for his wrong actions. Ahmadinejad advisor Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai responded to a group of journalists: “Firstly, what Motahhari is saying is cheap and baseless and, secondly, we are in the processes of filing a complain against him."

Back came Motahhari, declaring that Mashai should not interfere in and talk about issues which are beyond his "brain capacity" and that he should continue working on his ridiculous plan of Iran-Israel friendship. Then Motahhari returned to Ahmadinejad: the President is like "the person who has caused a big and tragic (car) accident but he has escaped from the scene and we have to try and penalise and punish the person who has the most responsibility".



0600 GMT: Rah-e-Sabz reports concerns over the deteriorating health of Ebrahim Yazdi, the former Foreign Minister and leader of the Freedom Movement of Iran, who has been detained since Ashura (27 December). The 79-year-old Yazdi was also held just after the June election but, on that occasion, was soon released.

0555 GMT: Cyber-War Update: Mahmoud Silenced. President Ahmadinejad's blog is still off-line, weeks after the website was attacked.

0540 GMT: The lead news this morning continues to be the regime's effort at legitimacy through the investigation of the detainee abuses at Kahrizak Prison. A couple of months ago, the speculation was that former Tehran Prosecutor General Saeed Mortazavi would be the fall guy, facing a trial and jail for his supposed lead role in the scandal of beatings and deaths of prisoners. That was deflected by Mortazavi's appointment as an aide to President Ahmadinejad, but now it appears that he is the firewall against challenges to others in the Government and regime, including the Supreme Leader.

We've got the video of the CNN interview in which Tehran University academic Seyed Mohammad Marandi lays out, in the guise of reporting and analysis, the strategy. (Apologies to those of you in the US whom CNN have blocked from seeing the video; the alternative, as laid out by our readers, is to download the video from CNN's Amanpour website and play it back on QuickTime.)

Elsewhere, Agence France Presse picks up on the opening provided by the Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting debates, in which some reformists have made telling challenges to the regime. While we have highlighted the remarks of Dr Javad Etaat, posting the video and translation of his contribution, AFP notes the exchange between reformist member of Parliament Mostafa Kavakebian and "hard-line" editor of Kayhan, Hossein Shariatmadari.

Latest from Iran (17 January): Setting Aside Diversions

2250 GMT: The Regime Sacrifices Mortazavi (on US Television). What a way to close the evening. In an interview on CNN tonight, Tehran University academic Seyed Mohammad Marandi effectively gave up former Tehran Prosecutor General Saeed Mortazavi as the man responsible for the detainee abuses and deaths at Kahrizak Prison. We've got the video and a snap analysis.

NEW Latest Iran Video: Marandi on CNN on Detainee Abuses “Mortazavi to Blame” (17 January)
NEW Iran: The Ali-Mohammadi Case “A Political Assassination”
NEW Iran: The Ali-Mohammadi Funeral “The Stolen Coffin”
UPDATED Iran Video & Translation: Dr Etaat’s Opposition On State Media (14 January — Parts 3-5)
UPDATED Iran Video & Translation: Dr Etaat’s Opposition On State Media (14 January — Parts 1 and 2)
NEW Iran: The 15 Points of “The Secular Green Movement” (14 January)
Latest Iran News (16 January): Ripples

1945 GMT: Don't Look Now But.... Former 1st Vice President and Presidential ally Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai is handing out wisdom, according to Press TV: "The Islamic system's adherence to keep an 'unbreakable connection' between its legitimacy and popularity is the key to its survival."

Don't want to rain on this supremacy parade, Mr R-M, but given recent developments (see 1035 GMT and 1100 GMT), you want to think about your own survival before pronouncing on that of the Islamic Republic.

1935 GMT: Repent! Rah-e-Sabz reports supporters of Mir Hossein Mousavi in Borujerd in western Iran are being summoned by the Ministry of Intelligence and asked to sign statements of repentance.

1845 GMT: Zia Nabavi, a "starred" (monitored) student and spokesman for the Right to Education Defense Council, has been given a 15-year jail term combined with 74 lashes. The sentence consists of ten years for association with the Mujahedin-e-Khalq (MKO), three years for gathering and collusion to undermine national security; one year for spreading propaganda against the regime; one year for disturbing the public peace; and 74 lashes for antagonizing public opinion.

During his trial, Mr. Nabavi strenuously denied association with the MKO, saying he was being sentenced for the presence of a few of his family members at MKO’s Ashraf base in Iraq. According to Mr. Nabavi’s lawyer, the main charge was participation in a street march on June 15.

1802 GMT: A new website has been created by journalists and human rights activists to bring attention to the cases of less prominent post-election detainees.

1800 GMT: We've posted the video of the concluding part of Dr Javad Etaat's powerful criticism of the regime which was aired on Iranian state media this week.

1720 GMT: The files of 17 The files of 17 detained killed protesters have been sent by Tehran's Chief Prosecutor to the criminal court of Tehran.

1705 GMT: Two more members of the Freedom Movement of Iran, Solmaz Alimoradi and Farid Taheri, were arrested today. The regime has targeted the group with a series of arrests on and after Ashura (27 December).

(An activist is now reporting that four members were arrested, adding the names of Mamood Naimpoor and Khosro Ghashghai.)

1700 GMT: Oh, Mahmoud, You Crazy Guy. Who needs to worry about an internal crisis when you can do this to highlight the evil wrought by others upon Iran? "A task force assigned by Iran's president has begun their work in estimating the amount of damage inflicted on the Iranian nation during the Second World War."

1645 GMT: Targeting Mortazavi. Not a good omen for Saeed Mortazavi: Press TV's website headlines, "Ex-Tehran prosecutor should stand 'trial'". The article carries Mortazavi's denial that he was responsible for detainees abuses in Kahrizak Prison, taken from his comments to Fars News, but closes with this stinger:

Parviz Sorouri, the lawmaker who heads the panel, told Mehr News Agency that the report was "based on undeniable evidence and documents" gathered by his team. The lawmaker insisted a tribunal should be established to consider the panel's report. "Mr. Mortazavi should also present his evidence in this court," Sorouri said.

A total of 55 members of Parliament, led by Sorouri, have written to demand that Mortazavi be brought to court.

1445 GMT: Death Sentence Propaganda. We reported earlier (0823 GMT) that a Hossein Mahmoodi, who had supposedly been sentenced to death as "mohareb" (warrior against God), was the nephew of Hojatoleslam Jafar Montazeri, the head of Iran's Administrative Justice Court.

Only one catch here: Hojatolislam Montazeri is saying he does not have a nephew named Hossein Mahmoodi.

So, if that is true, who is spreading the lie?

1420 GMT: Student activist Majid Dorri has received an 11-year jail sentence.

1328 GMT: Member of Parliament Ali Motahhari (see 1035 GMT) has called for Mir Hossein Mousavi to be allowed into debates on the post-election situation.

1325 GMT: The Mothers of Mourning Persist. A week after their protest was disrupted by 33 arrests, the Mothers of Mourning and their supporters gathered again in Laleh Park yesterday, chanting, "You can occupy Laleh Park, but not our country."

1205 GMT: Another Reformist Put Away. Opposition websites report that senior reformist and former member of Parliament Mohsen Safai Farahani has been sentenced to six years in jail.

1150 GMT: A Newspaper Offensive Against the Regime? If this is interpreted accurately, the "challenge within" to the regime seems to be moving up a notch.

Ayande News has published an analysis by a senior official which, painting a bleak picture of the post-election situation, indirectly blames misjudgments by the Supreme Leader and a disregard for Constitution in siding with “extremists and rogues”. The unnamed official asks where the regime is headed, given the gap between people and Ayatollah Khamenei and the stagnation of the regime and Government.

In Alef News, Mohammad Hassan Haeri Shirazi, the son of Ayatollah Haeri Shirazi, asks whether the intention is to establish an absolute Islamic state or a one-party regime. He criticises the Supreme Leader for manipulating elections, causing a deterioration of democracy and a move towards an oppressive regime.

1100 GMT: P.S. And Khabar Online also has this parting shot of news for Ahmadinejad aide Rahim-Mashai: Iranian state media kept him off TV screens during recent public appearances.

1035 GMT: Ahmadinejad's Buddy v. The Larijanis? We noted earlier (0800 GMT) that Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's close ally Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai has been taking potshots at member of Parliament Ali Motahhari, the brother-in-law of Ali Larijani). Well, if true, here is another front in the battle, offered by Khabar Online (which, remember, is a publication connected with Ali Larijani):

In [a] gathering of the members of Ahmadinejad election headquarters held in the grand hall of [the] Interior Ministry, his backers chanted slogans against Mir Hossein Mousavi, opposition leader, as well as Esfandiar Rahim Mashaei, Ahmadinejad's chief of staff and his top aide.

According to Khabar Online correspondent who exclusively reported on the issue, the event took place at 8 to 12 a.m. Friday and was attended by the officials of Ahmadinejad election headquarters. Among them officials from the provinces of Azerbaijan and Mazandaran made speeches and after a known cleric, Ayatollah Haeri Shirazi delivered the lecture, [the] Iranian President...made a speech.

During his speech, the government supporters shouted "Death to Mousavi!" But interestingly when the ceremony came to an end several attendants chanted slogans against Esfandiar Rahim Mashaei, Ahmadinejad's close aide: "Mashaei Shame on You! Leave Ahmadi Alone!" and "Ahmadi Replace Mashaei!" They began to shout when the attendants were leaving the hall.

0828 GMT: Not Me. Former Tehran Prosecutor General Saeed Mortazavi has rejected the Parliamentary report that holds him accountable for the post-election abuses at Kahrizak Prison.

0823 GMT: The Death Penalty and the Regime. Amir Kabir Newsletter claims that Hossein Mahmoodi, the nephew of Hojatoleslam Jafar Montazeri, the head of Iran's Administrative Justice Court, is amongst a number of Ashura protesters who have been marked out for execution.

0817 GMT: Detention Update. As the regime tries to break protests with more arrests, there are claims that Eshrat Abad Prison could become a "second Kahrizak". Kahrizak Prison was site of post-election detainee abuses and at least three deaths before it was closed on the orders of the Supreme Leader.

0815 GMT: A "corrected" issue of the weekly newspaper Hemmat has been printed after the publication was banned, apparently for insulting Hashemi Rafsanjani.

0810 GMT: No "Mohareb". Amidst Government threats to try demonstrators for the crime of "mohareb" (war against God), more than 60 journalists and human rights activists have signed an open letter denouncing the threat.

0800 GMT: Indeed, the important issue may not be just the Government's reaction to protests (see 0730 GMT) but to its challengers "within". Consider this provocative statement from President Ahmadinejad's ally and Chief of Staff, Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai.

No real shocker that Rahim-Mashai would trot out the line that American and Israeli denials of responsibility in the assassination of Professor Massoud Ali-Mohammadi "are revealing". The intriguing passage, instead, is Rahim-Mashai's allegation that high-profile member of Parliament (and brother-in-law of Ali Larijani) Ali Motahhari has tried to diminish the offences of riot leaders with his criticisms of the Government. So Rahim-Mashai's assurance that legal prosecution is underway is not just a slap-down to the Green movement but to Mottahari.

0730 GMT: Two weeks to go until 11 days of celebration begin, marking the anniversary of the 1979 Revolution, and the political manoeuvring continues. Since the protest and counter-protest of Ashura (27 and 30 December), the public scenes have been less dramatic, but the chatter and preparations continue. Those preparations may be supported by the symbol of the death of Professor Massoud Ali-Mohammadi this week: we have two pieces from Ahmad Shirzad on the "political assassination" and on the drama of Ali-Mohammadi's funeral.

Most of the Western media, however, is diverted today from these events. The Saturday talks of the "5+1" powers (US, UK, France, Germany, Russia, China) on Iran's nuclear programme were never going to produce any outcome, but just their occurrence is enough for reporters to fill up columns with the non-development. The Washington Post headlines, "Major powers reach no deal on new sanctions on Iran over its nuclear program", while The New York Times tries to rescue a bit of significance, "6 Major Powers Move Closer to Considering More Iran Sanctions".

Inside Iran, the attention is on the Government's approach to protests. Prominent cleric and politician Mohammad Reyshahri has caused a stir by breaking from "hard-line" supporters of the regime, condemning extremism and neglect in dealing with post-election demonstrations.

Reyshahri --- Supervisor of Iranian Pilgrims, a former representative of the Supreme Leader and former Minister of Intelligence --- declared, “It is no accomplishment to turn a martyr’s family into supporters of a coup. Transforming coup organizers into martyrs is the real accomplishment.” He added, “We must manage things so that if someone supports Velayat-e Faghih (Supreme Leadership of an expert cleric) only 10 percent and is against it 90 percent, we add to that 10 percent rather than completely destroying that 10 percent.”

Iran Analysis: The "Opposition Within" and the Regime

Our running analysis at EA has been of a political conflict in Iran which is far more than just Green Movement v. Regime. One aspect of this has been the disputes and tensions between members of the Iranian establishment. Writing for InsideIran.org, Arash Aramesh develops this theme:

Recent statements made by high-ranking conservatives in Iran and the reaction of ultra conservatives to those statements have lead many Iran watchers to believe that the rift within the conservative establishment s is widening. The most recent instance was the war of words between Ali Motahhari, a conservative member of parliament, and Hossein Shariatmadari, the ultra conservative editor-in-chief of Kayhan and a staunch supporter of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

There are other instances of such clashes. For example, the radical Ansar News published an article by Fatemeh Rajabi, the wife of Gholam-Hossein Elham who is now a member of the Guardian Council, accusing Ali Larijani, the speaker of parliament, of aiding the opposition.

Latest Iran News (16 January): Ripples

The resignation of Ruhollah Hosseinian, a pro-Ahmadinejad deputy in parliament, was another episode highlighting the widening cleavage among conservatives. In his letter of resignation sent to Larijani, Hosseinian accused some conservatives, including the leadership of the parliament, of assisting the reformists and isolating true conservatives like himself. [Editor's Note: Hosseinian, in a direct letter to the Supreme Leader, rescinded his resignation this week.]

There are two theories about this apparent rift. A number of observers and political activists, who spoke to InsideIRAN.org on the condition of anonymity, believe that the ruling establishment is trying to trade in the reformists and the Green Movement for a moderate conservative alternative. These moderate conservatives include senior Iranian officials such as Larijani, Mohammad-Reza Bahonar, the deputy speaker of parliament, and Mohsen Rezaei, the former commander of the IRGC and candidate in the June 12 presidential election, and others.

All of those mentioned above come from a conservative political line with close ties to the bazaar and traditional clerics. They are more moderate in their criticism of the opposition and at times voiced their dissatisfaction about the government’s treatment of protestors and the handling of events following the June 12 election. Some even called for national unity suggesting that the elders of the tribe meet to discuss the current crisis. Two weeks ago, Rezaei wrote a letter supporting a statement issued by Mir Hossein Moussavi and asked the Supreme Leader to lead the country in the direction of unity and closure. Rezaei’s letter, which was written with ultimate respect to the Supreme Leader, received an angry response from the radical wing of the Islamic Republic.

According to these observers, the Islamic Republic is waging an orchestrated effort to introduce viable anti-Ahmadinejad alternatives to the public in order to diminish the influence of figures such as Moussavi and Mehdi Karroubi. Arab governments have taken similar steps to boost the popularity of Islamists they support who then become rivals to more established Islamic groups opposed to the state.

The second theory advanced by a number of political commentators revolves around the notion of “regime survival.” Members of this group believe that some conservatives, who do not approve of Ahmadinejad’s radicalism, are genuinely worried about the survival of the Islamic Republic. Moderate conservatives also fear that their fate might soon mirror that of the reformists, who have been tortured and imprisoned.

The Ahmadinejad wing and the IRGC have dramatically expanded their sphere of influence in all three branches of government. The executive branch is now entirely in their hands, while many members of parliament have close ties to the IRGC and belong to the pro-Ahmadinejad faction. In the judiciary, the appointment of IRGC Brig Gen. Zolghadr to the post of Advisor to Chief Justice was an unprecedented move. Zolghadr, who has no legal experience, is one of IRGC’s most radical generals with close ties to Supreme Leader Khamenei.

Moderate conservatives in Iran are concerned. Their ideological differences with the reformists bars them from forming a viable coalition with them. At the same time, they fear the policies of the radicals can gravely jeopardize their political survival, and the survival of the Islamic Republic.

The Latest from Iran (14 January): The Professor's Funeral

1925 GMT: A (Pick the) Number of Protesters Will Be Tried Sometime in the Future with War Against the Regime (and Maybe God). Press TV trots out the latest press release to show Justice Will Be Done over the protests of Ashura (27 December):

Iran's judiciary says it has forwarded the cases of sixteen individuals indicted in connection with the Ashura riot in Tehran to the Revolution Court.

The Tehran Prosecutor's office said in a statement that one of the defendants could be charged with being "mohareb" (enemy of God) — a crime punishable by execution.

The fifteen [other] suspects were charged with "conspiring against national security and carrying out acts against the establishment," the statement added.

This is the latest in a series of public set-pieces. A couple of weeks ago, "seven" defendants appeared in Revolutionary Guard. Then there was the announcement that "five" demonstrators would be charged as "mohareb".

All of this, in contrast to the public show of the Tehran trials in August, seems just a bit haphazard.

1840 GMT: Mir Hossein Mousavi has offered condolences to the family of Professor Ali-Mohammadi.

1835 GMT: Payvand has a useful summary of 19 women's rights activists and female journalists who were detained in the days after the Ashura protests.

1825 GMT: Professor Ali-Mohammadi and Sweden. There has been a lot of chatter around the theory that Massoud Ali-Mohammadi was killed by regime loyalists, in part because he was going to take up a fellowship at Stockholm University in Sweden. We've done some checking:

1. We can establish nothing beyond the claim of the physicist's colleagues that "he had been in touch" with Stockholm about a one-year research grant. That's not necessarily "taking up" a fellowship, since in many cases, an application is made to a funding body, e.g., the European Union's research support programmes, for a Visiting Scholar.

The claim, without further evidence, was exaggerated on prominent blogs into Ali-Mohammadi definitely leading the country.

2. It is not necessarily an anti-regime step to take up an overseas fellowship. I personally know academics who support the regime who have held such fellowships.

3. There is nothing to indicate that Ali-Mohammadi's research fellowship would have turned into a defection.

4. There's a contradiction in the theory. If Ali-Mohammadi was in fact a particle physicist who had little or no connection with Iran's nuclear programme, why would there be a risk for the regime in his taking up a fellowship, since he would have no sensitive information to disclose?

NEW Latest Iran Video: The Life, Death, and Funeral of Professor Ali-Mohammadi (14 January)
NEW Latest Iran Video: “A Message to Armed Forces of Iran” (13 January)
NEW Iran Analysis: Political Manoeuvring Around the Professor’s Death
Iran Analysis: Nuclear Myths, Rogue Elements, and Professor Ali-Mohammadi’s Murder
NEW Iran Special: Interpreting the Death of Professor Ali-Mohammadi
NEW Latest Iran Video: The Leverett Line on Killing of Professor Ali-Mohammadi (13 January)
Latest Iran Video: How State Media Frames Killing of “Nuclear” Professor (12 January)
The Latest from Iran (13 January): Speculations and Realities

1800 GMT: Follow-up on Troublesome Clerics. We noted last night that clerics are re-emerging to challenge the Government. Ayande News has the letter of Ayatollah Mohammad Sadeghi Tehrani declaring that any official position for Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai, former First Vice President and current Ahmadinejad Chief of Staff, is religiously forbidden. And Persian2English posts the text of Ayatollah Bayat-Zanjani's position on velayat-e-faqih (ultimate clerical authority):

QUESTION: Recently, the slogan "the principle of the supreme leader is part of our religion [Islam]’s principle” was heard and repeatedly broadcast on TV. Are the principles of religion among secondary principles? Can something be added to it or deducted from it? Isn’t this slogan a blasphemy? According to Islam what sentence should be considered for [those who challenge velayat-e-faqih]? What is our responsibility?

ZANJANI: The principle of the supreme leader is a political and juridical principle, and an arguable subject among Faqihs. Although it seems to be the right principle, it’s not the principle of religion and denying it is not infidelity. Those who claim otherwise are innovating and they should be rejected.

1500 GMT: Parleman News reports that Hassan Abedi Jafari, an advisor to Mir Hossein Mousavi, has been released from detention. It is claimed that Jafari's seven-year prison sentence has been overturned.

Nobel Prize laureate Shirin Ebadi has told Al Jazeera that her sister Noushin has been freed from prison.

1425 GMT: Rah-e-Sabz reports that the chief editor of Aftab-e Yazd has resigned to prevent the closure of the daily newspaper.

1415 GMT: Arrests and Jail Terms. Mohammad Ali Shirzadi, documentary-maker and member of the Committee of Prisoner's Defense was arrested Monday night. His whereabouts are still unknown.

Salman Sima, a member of the Students Policymaking Council, has been given a six-year prison sentence by the Revolutionary Court. SPC senior members Ahmad Zeydabadi and Abdollah Momeni have also received long jail terms.

Peyke Iran is reporting that 100 protesters detained on Ashura (27 December) have been put in the solitary-confinement cells of Gohardasht prison in Karaj.

1405 GMT: Linking Economics and Politics. It might be worthwhile to keep an eye on Khabar Online, which has been poking at the Government. First, there was the rebuff of the official line that Professor Ali-Mohammadi was part of Iran's nuclear programme (see 1025 GMT). Now there is this economic story, which intersects with comments EA readers have been making:

Currently several projects in Iran's rich gas field of South Pars have come to a halt or are to be closed down....Sirous Sazdar, a member of the energy committee of Iranian Parliament (Majlis) emphasized that the gas ventures of the country are not developed in an efficient manner. He referred to the fact that from the last year the capacity of Iran's gas production has not boosted.

"This winter the weather was on the side of Iranian gas officials. The gas production capacity of the country is about 500 million cubic meters per day. This year if the weather had grown so cold like what people experienced in winter 2008, we would need 700 million cubic meters of gas and could face a shortage of 200 million cubic meters a day," he said.

"Although these days the weather is not that much cold, we witness that to provide consumer gas for houses and business places, the officials have dropped the bulk of delivered gas to power stations by 30 million cubic meters," Sazdar pointed out.

The wider significance? Khabar is far from a reformist publication; indeed, it's considered to be close to Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani. So, while Larijani makes his statements promoting the hard line against the Green movement, an allied publication is making trouble for President Ahmadinejad....

1350 GMT: Israel Did It. Pretty much a complete summary of today's comment by President Ahmadinejad on the Ali-Mohammadi killing, although he did dress it up a bit:

The depth of the enemies' grudge can be seen in the university professor's assassination. The manner of bomb planting shows a Zionist style and they want to make sure that Iran would not advance. [Iran's foes] don't want to see thinkers and scientists in Iran and do not want to see its development. The enemies can not take away the concept of genius from Iran by killing geniuses.

1345 GMT: Complementing today's video of the Ali-Mohammadi funeral, we've posted the video of an Al Jazeera debate, featuring Seyed Mohammad Marandi, Siavush Randjbar-Daemi, and Joshua Goodman, over the politics around his death. (See our initial comments on this debate in yesterday's updates.)

1215 GMT: Reliable sources report that Shapour Kazemi, the brother of Mir Hossein Mousavi's wife Zahra Rahnavard, has been released from detention. Kazemi has been in jail, on two separate occasions, for most of the post-election period.

1210 GMT: We have posted two videos of the life and death of Ali-Mohammadi, a report on today's funeral and an interview with his colleague.

1200 GMT: An Eyewitness Account of the Ali-Mohammadi Funeral. An EA correspondent has received the following from a "very reliable" source:

The street in front of Ali-Mohammadi's house was filled to the brim with louts who were bussed in to chant "Death to America". They essentially hijacked the street AND the house of Ali-Mohammadi.

Ali-Mohammadi's family were holed up inside their home by security forces, and they have been threatened since yesterday. His wife was screaming "You finally killed him!" [this detail has also been reported by Rah-e-Sabz]. The students and professors were forced to go into a separate procession. They started shouting religious intonations for the dead and were assaulted by plainclothesmen.

No one has any shred of doubt in Tehran any longer as to who really killed him --- it's the security forces, in one way or another.

Rah-e-Sabz reports the following from another eyewitness:

There was a heavy presence of security forces, with no one was allowed to stand in front of Ali-Mohammadi's home. Police loudspeakers were ordering people out of the street and onto the burial site. The streets around it were packed with plainclothes and ordinary police. Three women photographers working for "foreign news agencies" were arrested by the female division of the police.

A brother of Ali-Mohammadi has claimed that his desktop computer has been taken away from his house, and he and another relative [the Professor's wife] claims the authorities killed him.

A statement which Fars claimed last night to have obtained from Ali-Mohammadi's family was false. According to the same source, the family hasn't made any statements yet.

1035 GMT: OK, I'll Stay for 99% Support. Hojatoleslam Ruhollah Hosseinian, who had threatened to resign as a member of Parliament because there has not been “100% support for Ayatollah Khamenei”, has decided to stay after discussions with President Ahmadinejad's advisors. Hosseinian reportedly presented the revocation of his resignation directly to the Supreme Leader.

1030 GMT: The Ali-Mohammadi Funeral. Peyke Iran has a report on the event, including the observation of a heavy security presence which remains even though the funeral has concluded.

1025 GMT: Khabar Online has challenged the official line on Professor Ali-Mohammadi, highlighting the statement from the Iranian Atomic Energy Organization that the physicist did not work with the nuclear programme.

0945 GMT: We've posted an interesting video --- makers unknown --- calling on Iran's armed forces to join the Green movement.

0930 GMT: Another University Statement on Ali-Mohammadi. Islamic Republic News Agency is featuring a statement from Allameh Tabatabei University, declaring that Iranian scientists are victims of counter-revolutionaries associated with global threats, arrogance, and Zionism.

0910 GMT: We now have confirmation, including photograph in our inset box, of heavy security presence around the funeral of Professor Ali-Mohammadi, as authorities fear that the occasion will bring protests.

0710 GMT: The Move Against Ahmadinejad's Government. Radio Farda returns to a key story beyond the Ali-Mohammadi news: member of Parliament Ali Motahari's ongoing campaign against the President and his allies. Motahari has again called for the removal of the legal immunity of Saeed Mortazavi, former Tehran Prosecutor General and now Presidential aide, in the investigation of detainee abuses.

0640 GMT: And There Will Be Free Cupcakes for All. You cannot accuse President Ahmadinejad of being cautious in his declarations. Here is a nugget from his speech in Khuzestan in southwestern Iran on Wednesday.

Iran is a rich country and if justice is established not even a single person will be unemployed or poor....I have also assured the parliament members that if the plan is implemented by a smooth mechanism, Iran will not have even a single jobless or poor within three years.

0635 GMT: Unsurprisingly, the leading news today continues to be the speculation and political manipulation of the killing of Professor Massoud Ali-Mohammadi. We have posted a latest analysis. We will also post, later today, the video of the discussion on Al Jazeera English's "Inside Story" --- including academics Seyed Mohammad Marandi and Siavush Randjbar-Daemi --- of the case.

Ali-Mohammadi's funeral is today, and we will be watching for any sign of a demonstration around it.