Turkey Inside Line: The Evolving Relationship with Russia

EA's Fulya Inci writes:

Last week, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayip Erdogan made a two-day trip to Moscow, with energy, trade and the Nagorno-Karabakh dispute high on the agenda. Erdogan and senior members of his government, in talks with Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin and President Dmitri Medvedev, launched the process for an agreement on visa-free travel for the citizens of both countries and took important steps on the use of the Turkish lira, and the Russian ruble in bilateral trade. Most significantly, the two sides signed a declaration of cooperation to construct Turkey’s first nuclear power plant.

The energy issue is the rucial factor in the economic and trading relations of Turkey and Russia. Turkey is highly dependent on Russian gas but now also wants to become a major energy corridor, transporting that gas to the Middle East. This South Stream rivals the U.S. and EU-backed Nabucco pipeline plan, even though Ankara also backs Nabucco  and says the two projects should complement each other.



A Turkish government commission is examining the environmental concerns and high-cost route of South Stream, but it has also allowed Moscow to carry out preliminary work off the Black Sea coast. It also has a commitment from Russia to join a prospective Samsun-Ceyhan oil pipeline via Turkey, as Ankara seeks to develop its geostrategic position and create new cooperation opportunities in the region.

Bilateral trade is also important between the two countries. It reached $33 billion in 2008. There has been an unexpected decrease in 2009 due to the global economic crisis, but both countries’ leaders expressed the desire to triple the figure by 2015.

In contrast to the positive steps in energy and trade, the trip did not seem to reward Turkey’s Nagorno-Karabakh policy. Putin told Erdoğan that “Turkey should not link the Nagorno-Karabakh problem between Armenia and Azerbaijan to the normalization of its bilateral relations with Armenia.”

In October, Turkey and Armenia signed agreements to normalize diplomatic relations, after decades of tension over the mass killing of Turkey's Armenian population in the early 20th century. The two sides also discussed reopening borders that Turkey had closed in 1993 because of Armenia's occupation of Nagorno-Karabakh, a largely Armenian- populated part of Azerbaijan.

As a close ally of Azerbaijan, Turkey “first wants to see progress toward the solution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict before opening its border with Armenia”. Putin’s remarks show that Russia does not want Turkey to slow down the normalization process because of Nagorno-Karabakh’s future.

President Medvedev is expected to come to Turkey on May, and the two sides are hopeful for developing cooperation. It is an important negotiation, given that shifting power in regions such as the Middle East is bringing new opportunities and risks for both countries.

Missile Defense: The "New" US Plan on the Poland-Russia Border

New EA correspondent Cigdem Billur reports on some quiet but important missile manoeuvres in Eastern Europe:

Last year, the Obama Administration declared with great publicity that it was abandoning US plans for bases for Missile Defense in Eastern Europe. The "Star Wars" response of a satellite defense system would be replaced by a mobile system pointing towards Iran from the Persian Gulf.

Beyond the headlines, however, Washington is still planning a visible show of "defense" which concerns not Tehran but Moscow. Polish media are reporting that the US is placing a battery of Patriot missiles only 100 kilometres from the Russian border. Polish officials confirmed that the missiles will be deployed in the city of Morag, near Russia’s critical region Kaliningrad.

The Patriot system, of course, is not for high-level defense against incoming missiles. Its most famous use was the protection of Israel and Saudi Arabia from Iraqi Scud missiles in the 1990-91 Gulf War.

It remains to be seen, however, if Russia will make the distinction. Before the Obama withdrawal of the Missile Defense scheme, President Dmitri Medvedev had suggested that Russia would place Iskander (SS-26) tactical missiles on the Polish border near Kaliningrad. The step was never implemented, but could it be resurrected as a response to the Patriots?