Today in EA (12 January 2010)

Iran: News from Iran this morning concentrates on the booby-trap bomb explosion in Tehran that killed Professor Massoud Mohammadi. We have the latest, which includes indication that Mohammadi was not involved in Iran's nuclear programme, and a video of state media's presentation of the event.

Links to this and other top stories, from EA and other media, are available as always, in our weblog.

Amidst recent coverage of Iran and Twitter,  and following yesterday's contributions on this issue, we have a comprehensive analysis today from Christopher Parsons, which seeks to dispell some of the fear, uncertainty and doubt around the Iranian Government's use of digital surveillance techniques.

Scott Lucas considers, amidst recent statements by Mir Hossein Mousavi, Mehdi Karroubi, and Mohamad Khatami, the way forward for the opposition: "The question may not be how the regime reacts to these statements  but how the Green movement(s) respond."

US/Israel: Israel media suggest that, behind the scenes, Israel's relationship with the Obama Administration is flourishing, despite Washington's recent sale of arms to four "moderate" Arab states.

Turkey/Israel: A meeting between Turkish and Lebanese Prime Ministers turned into a platform for sharp criticism of  Israel.

Turkey & Israel: Clashes over Iran, Lebanon, Gaza...and a TV Show

At the diplomatic level, Monday was the occasion for Turkey's Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri to display ties between the two countries. Both leaders not only lifted visa requirements between each country and criticised Israel.

Following Hariri's statement, "Today, Israel continues its violation of our airspace and waters," Erdogan urged Israel to stop violating Lebanon's airspace and territorial waters and promised to support Lebanon's case against Israel at the United Nations, where Turkey is a temporary member of the Security Council.

Middle East Arms Triangle: The US, “Moderate” Arabs, & Israel

Then Erdogan went far beyond Lebanon:

We can never remain silent in the face of Israel's attitude. ... It has disproportionate power and it is using that at will while refusing to abide by UN resolutions. We can never accept this picture. These steps threaten global peace.

Erdogan moved to the case of Iran, calling on the Security Council to put the same pressure on Israel's nuclear programme as it does on Tehran's:

The region cannot accept a new Iraq syndrome. Those who are warning Iran over nuclear weapons are not making the same warnings to Israel. Five permanent members of the Security Council must be just. Israel has not denied the existence of its nuclear arsenal; on the contrary it has admitted it.

On Gaza, Erdogan reached his climax. Referring to the killings of three Hamas militants by Israeli forces last weekend, he asked: "What is your excuse this time?" He continued: "No one can claim that phosphorus shells are not weapons of mass destruction."

Israel's Deputy Foreign Minister Danny Ayalon called Erdogan's comments "damaging and one-sided," saying they certainly didn't aid Turkey's efforts to play a Middle East mediation role. Meanwhile, Ayalon summoned Turkish ambassador to Israel Oguz Celikkol to the Knesset to express outrage over a new Turkish television show that depicts Mossad agents as baby snatchers.

Following the crisis last year over the Turkish series, Ayrilik (Farewell), another dispute has erupted over the Turkish drama Kurtlar Vadisi (Valley of the Wolves). In an episode broadcast two weeks ago, a baby kidnapped by the Mafia is brought to the Israel Embassy. The leading actor enter the embassy to save the baby, protected by Mossad agents, and in the confrontation, blood spreads on the Star of David on the Israeli flag. When the would-be rescuer is told by an Israeli official that he is committing a war crime, since the Embassy is the land of a foreign country, he replies: "Are you always going to commit war crimes?"

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xoYM663_N2k[/youtube]

After the meeting, Ayalon called the TV show as "intolerable" and said he had told Celikkol, "These things, against the background of the very, very anti-Israeli rhetoric by the most senior officials in Turkey, not only harm relations, but also endanger the Jewish community in Turkey, the Israeli diplomats there - to say nothing of the Israeli tourists who visit there."

Meanwhile, it was claimed by Israeli Channel 2 that Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman, in response to the broadcast of the controversial program, is seeking to torpedo Defense Minister Ehud Barak's upcoming trip to Turkey.

Middle East Arms Triangle: The US, "Moderate" Arabs, & Israel

On 6 January, we reported that the Netanyahu government had concerns over Washington's sale of about $6 billion of arms to four "moderate" Arab states (Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and the United Arab Emirates) and Washington. We asked whether the Israelis were pursuing  the complaint to argue the argument that the regional balance of power would collapse because of the arms shipments, regardless of how "moderate" the Arabs states are.

The background to the current manoeuvres lies in Israel's concerns over a $20 billion arms deal between Saudi Arabia and the George W. Bush Administration. On that occasion, Tel Aviv used its concerns as leverage to receive advanced F-35 fighter jets and to limit American arms sales to Lebanon amidst the re-emergence of Hezbollah. So far, no arms deal with Israel have been signed under Obama, and there is the issue of  shipment of higher-tech arms under the 2007 Memorandum of Understanding, which promised $30 billion to Tel Aviv over the following 10 years.

In that context, perhaps the immediate postures over the US-Arab deals should situated under the US-Israel strategic relationship. The Jewish Daily Forward has noted:

Leaders in Washington and Jerusalem have publicly locked horns over the issue of West Bank settlements. And Israeli public opinion has largely viewed America’s new administration as unfriendly. But behind the scenes, strategic security relations between the two countries are flourishing.

Israel and Gaza: Another War Possible?

After twenty rockets and mortar shells were fired at Israel from Gaza in the past week, three Palestinian militants were killed in an Israel Air Force strike in Gaza. "The IDF [Israel Defense Forces] will not allow any attempts to attack Israel and will continue to forcefully foil any such attacks," a military spokesman said following the strike.

The IDF operation came hours after an Israeli cabinet meeting and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's declaration, "I view this very seriously. The government's policy is clear, any shooting at our territory will receive an immediate and powerful response." Former Israeli commander Major-General Yom Tov Samia went farther, asserting another war against Hamas is needed and on the way:

Israel: Netanyahu’s Post-Cabinet Declarations on Gaza, Settlements, Egypt Fence
Israel: The Reaction to A “More Committed” Washington

We are before another round in Gaza. I am very skeptical about the possibility that Hamas will suddenly surrender or change its ways without being hit much more seriously than it was during Cast Lead.

We must create a situation in which Hamas runs out of oxygen...[including] a more focused strike with long-lasting results...taking control of certain areas in Gaza.

Samia's words followed those of the current head of Israel's Southern Command, Major-General Yoav Galant. Galant said, "It's true that we are after the first rains and the sun is shining --- but one can see dark clouds in the distance."

Israel: Netanyahu's Post-Cabinet Declarations on Gaza, Settlements, Egypt Fence

On Saturday night, a statement from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's office declared: "It is the Palestinian Authority that needs to change its ways --- certainly not the Israeli government." On the following day, Netanyahu made his mark at the Cabinet meeting.

Concerning the Gaza Strip, Netanyahu asserted, "I view this very seriously. The government's policy is clear, any shooting at our territory will receive an immediate and powerful response." His tone did not change in discussion on settlements. While claiming that the 10-month moratorium on construction has been implemented, he said the freeze on West Bank settlements is only temporary: "In another eight months, we'll start building again."

Israel and Gaza: Another War Possible?
Israel: The Reaction to A “More Committed” Washington

Lastly, Netanyahu ordered construction of a fence, at a cost of $1.5 billion, along two segments of Israel's border with Egypt, in an attempt to stem the infiltration of migrant workers as well as terrorist elements into Israel. The Prime Minister said, "I took the decision to close Israel's southern border to infiltrators and terrorists. This is a strategic decision to secure Israel's Jewish and democratic character."