Israel-Palestine: War or Dialogue With Hamas?

A new operation against Hamas is being discussed by Israeli officials, media institutions and citizens. There are two very different options: 1) hitting Hamas in a military operation even bigger than last year's Operation Cast Lead to give a "better" lesson and open the border or 2) trying to have a dialogue, fostering economic development in Gaza.

Following "hawkish" statements by the Israeli military, The Jerusalem Post claimed that the Israeli Defense Forces are prepared to take control of the Philadelphi Corridor in the southern Gaza Strip and deploy military forces in it, a plan which was shelved ahead of the offensive in December 2008 by the Olmert Government. It is alleged that Hamas has dug several hundred tunnels under this 14-kilometer strip of land to smuggle weapons and explosives.

Israel and Gaza: Another War Possible?

In contrast, an editorial in Haaretz, contends, "Israel needs to re-think of its Gaza strategy before it is too late." Instead of an additional economic embargo and military force, which have failed to ensure Israel's security and ease Gazans' poor living conditions, crossings between Israel and the Gaza Strip should be opened and an economic initiative should be pursued. Here is the full article:

After a year of relative quiet in the south following the cease-fire that ended Operation Cast Lead, there has been a marked escalation in violence along the Israel-Gaza border. Qassam rockets and mortars are being fired from Gaza, and the Israel Air Force retaliated by attacking targets in the Strip, killing several Palestinians. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned Hamas that Israel would "respond forcefully" to any fire on its territory.

Incidents involving live fire have aggravated relations between Hamas and Egypt, which is tightening the siege on Gaza. The Egyptians are building an underground steel wall to thwart smuggling through tunnels into Sinai, and are prohibiting supply convoys from entering Gaza through the Rafah crossing. Foreign peace activists who wanted to show support for Gaza were stopped in Cairo.

Gaza erupts whenever Israelis begin to feel that the Strip and its troubles have been forgotten. There is no easy solution to the troubles of 1.5 million poor Palestinians under double blockade, by Israel and Egypt, and whose government is being boycotted by countries around the world. A renewal of rocket fire shows that even a major military operation that brought death and destruction cannot ensure long-term deterrence and calm.

Israel has an interest in stopping escalation at the border so as not to find itself caught up in another belligerent confrontation with Hamas. Netanyahu's threats have not attained this goal. Like his predecessor, he risks placing his imprimatur on public commitments that will only push Israel toward another military operation to "strengthen deterrence" and teach Hamas a lesson."

The time has come to rethink Israeli strategy in Gaza. The economic embargo, which has brought severe distress to the inhabitants of Gaza, has not brought down Hamas, nor has it freed kidnapped soldier Gilad Shalit. The siege has only damaged Israel's image and led to accusations that it has shirked its humanitarian responsibilities in Gaza under international law.

Instead of erring by invoking the default solution of more force, which does not create long-term security or ease the distress of the Palestinians in Gaza, the crossings between Israel and the Gaza Strip should be opened and indirect assistance rendered to rebuild its ruins. The same logic that dictates the government's actions in the West Bank - creating an economic incentive to prevent terror - can and must work in the Gaza Strip as well.

Middle East Arms Triangle: The US, "Moderate" Arabs, & Israel

On 6 January, we reported that the Netanyahu government had concerns over Washington's sale of about $6 billion of arms to four "moderate" Arab states (Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and the United Arab Emirates) and Washington. We asked whether the Israelis were pursuing  the complaint to argue the argument that the regional balance of power would collapse because of the arms shipments, regardless of how "moderate" the Arabs states are.

The background to the current manoeuvres lies in Israel's concerns over a $20 billion arms deal between Saudi Arabia and the George W. Bush Administration. On that occasion, Tel Aviv used its concerns as leverage to receive advanced F-35 fighter jets and to limit American arms sales to Lebanon amidst the re-emergence of Hezbollah. So far, no arms deal with Israel have been signed under Obama, and there is the issue of  shipment of higher-tech arms under the 2007 Memorandum of Understanding, which promised $30 billion to Tel Aviv over the following 10 years.

In that context, perhaps the immediate postures over the US-Arab deals should situated under the US-Israel strategic relationship. The Jewish Daily Forward has noted:

Leaders in Washington and Jerusalem have publicly locked horns over the issue of West Bank settlements. And Israeli public opinion has largely viewed America’s new administration as unfriendly. But behind the scenes, strategic security relations between the two countries are flourishing.

Israel: Netanyahu's Post-Cabinet Declarations on Gaza, Settlements, Egypt Fence

On Saturday night, a statement from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's office declared: "It is the Palestinian Authority that needs to change its ways --- certainly not the Israeli government." On the following day, Netanyahu made his mark at the Cabinet meeting.

Concerning the Gaza Strip, Netanyahu asserted, "I view this very seriously. The government's policy is clear, any shooting at our territory will receive an immediate and powerful response." His tone did not change in discussion on settlements. While claiming that the 10-month moratorium on construction has been implemented, he said the freeze on West Bank settlements is only temporary: "In another eight months, we'll start building again."

Israel and Gaza: Another War Possible?
Israel: The Reaction to A “More Committed” Washington

Lastly, Netanyahu ordered construction of a fence, at a cost of $1.5 billion, along two segments of Israel's border with Egypt, in an attempt to stem the infiltration of migrant workers as well as terrorist elements into Israel. The Prime Minister said, "I took the decision to close Israel's southern border to infiltrators and terrorists. This is a strategic decision to secure Israel's Jewish and democratic character."

Palestine: The Reaction to A "More Committed" Washington

In an interview on Friday, Fatah Central Committee member and former security commander Muhammad Dahlan said that peace negotiations between the Palestinians and Israel will resume in the coming week.

Dahlan added that, following intense contacts among Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, the Palestinian Authority, and the Quartet (United Nations, Russia, European Union, and United States), Israel will accept the new proposal. He continued, "We hope the struggle of chairman Abu Mazen (Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas) against the previous negotiating mechanism will bear fruit already in the coming weeks."

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When asked about demands before renewal of negotiations, Dahlan underlined the significance of a settlement freeze and the acceptance of pre-1967 borders. Dahlan said:

All we seek is a year or 10-month building freeze, during which a permanent agreement will be achieved. Palestinians will not accept any manipulation on this issue [final borders].

At the end of this "optimism", there was also a warning. Dahlan said, "The Palestinian people prefer to be cautious when it comes to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu," and he declared, "The current settlement [activity] in Jerusalem is aimed at taking it [the city's status] off the negotiating table".

Israel-Palestine: US Push with "Guarantee Letters" for Agreement within 2 Years

On Friday, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Mideast special envoy George Mitchell will meet Egyptian Foreign Minister Ahmed Aboul Gheit, Egyptian intelligence chief Omar Suleiman, and Jordanian Foreign Minister Nasser Judeh.

Following the meetings in Washington, Mitchell will travel on Sunday to Paris and Brussels for meetings with his counterparts from the "Quartet" of Middle East peacemakers (the US, the European Union, the United Nations and Russia )and European diplomats before a forthcoming visit to the region.

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During his Europe visit, Mitchell expected carry letters of "guarantees" outlining the US position to both Palestine and Israel. According to these "guarantees", Washington will consider the Palestinian demand for a return to the pre-1967 borders s and a full halt to expansion of Israeli settlements in the West Bank and East Jeruslaem. Israel's concern over retention of sovereignty over some of its settlements and a limited "right of return" of Palestinians into Israel will also be guaranteed by Washington.

On Wednesday evening, Mitchell appeared on the US Public Broadcasting System. In the transcript of the interview, this passage jumps out. Referring to Israeli Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman's recent statement that there could be no peace within two years, Mitchell said:

We think that the negotiation should last no more than two years, once begun we think it can be done within that period of time. We hope the parties agree. Personally I think it can be done in a shorter period of time.

Mitchell added that Israel also must advance negotiations with Syria.