Jordan: The Attack on the Israeli Embassy Convoy

On Thursday, a bomb was detonated near an Israeli Embassy convoy in Amman, Jordan. According to Israel's Channel 2, the convoy was entering a Jordanian army base. The spokeswoman at the Israeli Embassy in Amman, Merav Horsendi, confirmed the incident and added, "All I can say now is that everyone is fine."

So far, no organization immediately claimed responsibility for the failed attack. Israeli chatter, however, is focusing on Lebanon's Hezbollah. The Jerusalem Post reports that, following the failed attempt to bomb the Israeli Embassy in Azerbaijan last year,  the Israeli defense establishment has been on high alert over Hezbollah. In particular, Israel was watching for a strike on an Israeli target ahead of the 3rd anniversary of the assassination of Hezbollah leader Imad Fayez Mughniyeh death.

Israel-Palestine: War or Dialogue With Hamas?

A new operation against Hamas is being discussed by Israeli officials, media institutions and citizens. There are two very different options: 1) hitting Hamas in a military operation even bigger than last year's Operation Cast Lead to give a "better" lesson and open the border or 2) trying to have a dialogue, fostering economic development in Gaza.

Following "hawkish" statements by the Israeli military, The Jerusalem Post claimed that the Israeli Defense Forces are prepared to take control of the Philadelphi Corridor in the southern Gaza Strip and deploy military forces in it, a plan which was shelved ahead of the offensive in December 2008 by the Olmert Government. It is alleged that Hamas has dug several hundred tunnels under this 14-kilometer strip of land to smuggle weapons and explosives.

Israel and Gaza: Another War Possible?

In contrast, an editorial in Haaretz, contends, "Israel needs to re-think of its Gaza strategy before it is too late." Instead of an additional economic embargo and military force, which have failed to ensure Israel's security and ease Gazans' poor living conditions, crossings between Israel and the Gaza Strip should be opened and an economic initiative should be pursued. Here is the full article:

After a year of relative quiet in the south following the cease-fire that ended Operation Cast Lead, there has been a marked escalation in violence along the Israel-Gaza border. Qassam rockets and mortars are being fired from Gaza, and the Israel Air Force retaliated by attacking targets in the Strip, killing several Palestinians. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned Hamas that Israel would "respond forcefully" to any fire on its territory.

Incidents involving live fire have aggravated relations between Hamas and Egypt, which is tightening the siege on Gaza. The Egyptians are building an underground steel wall to thwart smuggling through tunnels into Sinai, and are prohibiting supply convoys from entering Gaza through the Rafah crossing. Foreign peace activists who wanted to show support for Gaza were stopped in Cairo.

Gaza erupts whenever Israelis begin to feel that the Strip and its troubles have been forgotten. There is no easy solution to the troubles of 1.5 million poor Palestinians under double blockade, by Israel and Egypt, and whose government is being boycotted by countries around the world. A renewal of rocket fire shows that even a major military operation that brought death and destruction cannot ensure long-term deterrence and calm.

Israel has an interest in stopping escalation at the border so as not to find itself caught up in another belligerent confrontation with Hamas. Netanyahu's threats have not attained this goal. Like his predecessor, he risks placing his imprimatur on public commitments that will only push Israel toward another military operation to "strengthen deterrence" and teach Hamas a lesson."

The time has come to rethink Israeli strategy in Gaza. The economic embargo, which has brought severe distress to the inhabitants of Gaza, has not brought down Hamas, nor has it freed kidnapped soldier Gilad Shalit. The siege has only damaged Israel's image and led to accusations that it has shirked its humanitarian responsibilities in Gaza under international law.

Instead of erring by invoking the default solution of more force, which does not create long-term security or ease the distress of the Palestinians in Gaza, the crossings between Israel and the Gaza Strip should be opened and indirect assistance rendered to rebuild its ruins. The same logic that dictates the government's actions in the West Bank - creating an economic incentive to prevent terror - can and must work in the Gaza Strip as well.

Israel: The Reaction to A "More Committed" Washington

Last Wednesday, its ambassador to Washington, Michael Oren, rebuffed Washington's "two-year time frame": "In the past, attempts to impose time frameworks have not proved either realizable or helpful."

For Oren, the framework of talks should include security for Israel, recognition of the nation as a Jewish state, and an end-of-claims conclusion to the talks. Oren said this would be "a statement of what Israel's goals are and what the Palestinians' goals are, even if the assumption is that they wouldn't be immediately confluent". Referring to US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's statement following PM Benjamin Netanyahu's announcement of a 10-month construction freeze , Oren stated that "these goals can be reconciled through good-faith negotiations."

Palestine: The Reaction to A “More Committed” Washington
Israel: Goldstone’s Return — Economic Sanctions on Tel Aviv?
Israel: Former Supreme Court President “Stop Boycotting International Criminal Court”

Clinton had said: "We believe that through good-faith negotiations the parties can mutually agree on an outcome which ends the conflict and reconciles the Palestinian goal of an independent and viable state based on the 1967 lines, with agreed swaps, and the Israeli goal of a Jewish state with secure and recognized borders that reflect subsequent developments and meet Israeli security requirements."

Today on EA (7 January 2010)

Iran: We've caught up with all the latest news this evening on our LiveBlog.

Josh Shahryar lets loose his frustrations at Will Heaven: "Next time, if you’re going to write on this subject, please, inform yourself about the many terms you used and try to show the real picture." Scott Lucas offers another perspective with a tribute to the bravery of two Iranian Twitterers no longer with us.

Videos from last night's international football game between Singapore and Iran are posted in a special section. Iranian State TV reportedly cut the soundtrack to block the sound of the very political, pro-green, chants being heard throughout the stadium.

Israel/Palestine: EA's Ali Yenidunya analyses the various statements and asks whether change could be in the air over the peace talks.

Israel: We report on an article in today's Jerusalem Post which compares and contrasts the current Prime Minister  Netanyahu with former PM Ariel Sharon.

Gaza: Following a call from Hamas rulers on Wednesday, protesting at the delay of an international aid convoy, a policeman has died and many activists have been injured following clashes between them and Egyptian forces.

Israel-Palestine Analysis: Change" in the Air Over Peace Talks?

Following claims that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is close to finalizing an agreement with the Obama Administration for peace talks with the Palestinian Authority, the PA gave its approval for such talks this weekend.

One PA official stated that Netanyahu was now apparently ready to recognize the pre-1967 borders as the basis for future talks and was ready to swap territory between the two countries. He added, "We're beginning to hear new things from Israel. For the first time an Israeli government is willing to negotiate with us on the basis of the 1967 borders, and this is an encouraging move."

"Peace talks between Israel and the Palestinians could be relaunched as early as February," added another PA official in Ramallah.

Meanwhile, Egyptian sources told the Cairo-based daily Al-Ahram on Monday that Barack Obama's administration will put forward a plan whereby Israel would commit itself to the establishment of a Palestinian state within two years of the launch of peace talks with the Palestinian Authority.

On Monday, at the press conference following her meeting with Qatar Prime Minister Sheikh Hamad Bin Jassim Bin Jabr Al-Thani, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton promised greater commitment to achieving a settlement between the PA and Israel:

We know that the Palestinians deserve a state to fulfill their aspirations. The Israelis deserve security to live peacefully side by side with their Palestinian neighbors. The Arab nations have made a very positive contribution in the peace initiative of the Arab League and others. So we’re going to be even more committed this year, and we’re starting this new year with that level of commitment and we’re going to follow through and hopefully we can see this as a positive year in this long process.

On the same day, while addressing lawmakers from his Likud party, Netanyahu said that he sensed "a change in the air":

In recent weeks I have felt that there is a certain change in the air, and I hope that this will mature, allowing the start of the diplomatic process.

We are serious in our intentions to reach a peace agreement.

Israel is ready for a peace process with the Palestinian Authority, without preconditions.

Netanyahu, however, added the caution, "Diplomatic plans said to be in my name that have appeared in the media have no truth."

There is also the standing obstacle of the declaration by PA leader Mahmoud Abbas that there will be no peace talks unless there is a complete freeze on Israeli settlements, both in East Jerusalem and the West Bank. Following his meeting with Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, Abbas repeated,

We have said and are still saying that at the time when settlement construction is stopped and the international legitimacy is recognized, we will be ready to resume the negotiations."

Our stance is known from the past and our stance remains the same - and in agreement with our brothers in Egypt - which is that we have no objections to negotiations or meetings in principle and we do not set conditions.

And then there was the complication of Israel's foreign minister Avigdor Lieberman. Lieberman hosted Quartet peace envoy Tony Blair and stated that reaching a final-status agreement within two years were unrealistic:

It is important to hold an honest, open dialogue with the Palestinians without sowing delusions that are disconnected with reality and that will only lead to violence and frustration. It is not possible to reach a full agreement within two years.

This is not a realistic goal. We need to begin direct talks without committing to any timeframe.

On Monday, U.S. State Department spokesman Ian Kelly was on the 'silent side' but, at least, was "hopeful":

QUESTION: There’s an unsourced report in the Israeli Hebrew language daily Ma’ariv, and there are a bunch of other reports out there elsewhere, talking about the possibility of an imminent resumption of peace talks between Prime Minister Netanyahu and President Abbas under an American plan.

MR. KELLY: I certainly hope so. I hope it’s before that. But whether it’s realistic or not, I can’t say.

MR. KELLY: Mm-hmm.

QUESTION: True?

MR. KELLY: Well, first of all, we’re not going to discuss any of the private correspondence or private discussions we have had with either side, including with the Israelis. I mean, you know what our goal is. Our goal is to get the two sides to agree to sit down and resume the talks, and so all of our efforts really are really directed toward that. And it wouldn't – I mean, it’s not appropriate for me to talk about what may or may not have been in any kind of private correspondence.

QUESTION: But are you on the verge of re-launching the resumption of talks?

MR. KELLY: I hope so. But I don’t have any information to announce on that.

QUESTION: I think we’re talking about the same report here, which says that the U.S.’s latest proposal envisions a Palestinian state within two years. The Israelis say that’s unrealistic. Is this a real report? I mean, is it coming from you guys?

MR. KELLY: I don’t really have any information about the specifics of that particular report.

QUESTION: Is it realistic, though, to think that the Palestinians could have a state within a couple of years?

Egyptian Foreign Minister Ahmed Aboul Gheit was also still "hopeful" about the future. He told reporter following the meeting between Mubarak and Abbas:

Our position is that the [Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's] ideas are taking the Israeli position forward.

This is a protracted process and needs patience, clarity and prudence so that the Palestinians do not find themselves in a difficult position.

Gheit and intelligence chief Omar Suleiman are going to be in Washington and the U.S. Mideast special envoy George Mitchell is going to be in the Middle East next week. Abbas' last words were that he would postpone any decision on whether or not to restart the talks until he sees what happens during Friday's visit to Washington by the two senior Egyptian officials.

The story continues without a conclusion: is there any "change" except in rhetoric?