Israel-Palestine: US Push with "Guarantee Letters" for Agreement within 2 Years

On Friday, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Mideast special envoy George Mitchell will meet Egyptian Foreign Minister Ahmed Aboul Gheit, Egyptian intelligence chief Omar Suleiman, and Jordanian Foreign Minister Nasser Judeh.

Following the meetings in Washington, Mitchell will travel on Sunday to Paris and Brussels for meetings with his counterparts from the "Quartet" of Middle East peacemakers (the US, the European Union, the United Nations and Russia )and European diplomats before a forthcoming visit to the region.

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During his Europe visit, Mitchell expected carry letters of "guarantees" outlining the US position to both Palestine and Israel. According to these "guarantees", Washington will consider the Palestinian demand for a return to the pre-1967 borders s and a full halt to expansion of Israeli settlements in the West Bank and East Jeruslaem. Israel's concern over retention of sovereignty over some of its settlements and a limited "right of return" of Palestinians into Israel will also be guaranteed by Washington.

On Wednesday evening, Mitchell appeared on the US Public Broadcasting System. In the transcript of the interview, this passage jumps out. Referring to Israeli Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman's recent statement that there could be no peace within two years, Mitchell said:

We think that the negotiation should last no more than two years, once begun we think it can be done within that period of time. We hope the parties agree. Personally I think it can be done in a shorter period of time.

Mitchell added that Israel also must advance negotiations with Syria.

Israel-Palestine Analysis: Change" in the Air Over Peace Talks?

Following claims that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is close to finalizing an agreement with the Obama Administration for peace talks with the Palestinian Authority, the PA gave its approval for such talks this weekend.

One PA official stated that Netanyahu was now apparently ready to recognize the pre-1967 borders as the basis for future talks and was ready to swap territory between the two countries. He added, "We're beginning to hear new things from Israel. For the first time an Israeli government is willing to negotiate with us on the basis of the 1967 borders, and this is an encouraging move."

"Peace talks between Israel and the Palestinians could be relaunched as early as February," added another PA official in Ramallah.

Meanwhile, Egyptian sources told the Cairo-based daily Al-Ahram on Monday that Barack Obama's administration will put forward a plan whereby Israel would commit itself to the establishment of a Palestinian state within two years of the launch of peace talks with the Palestinian Authority.

On Monday, at the press conference following her meeting with Qatar Prime Minister Sheikh Hamad Bin Jassim Bin Jabr Al-Thani, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton promised greater commitment to achieving a settlement between the PA and Israel:

We know that the Palestinians deserve a state to fulfill their aspirations. The Israelis deserve security to live peacefully side by side with their Palestinian neighbors. The Arab nations have made a very positive contribution in the peace initiative of the Arab League and others. So we’re going to be even more committed this year, and we’re starting this new year with that level of commitment and we’re going to follow through and hopefully we can see this as a positive year in this long process.

On the same day, while addressing lawmakers from his Likud party, Netanyahu said that he sensed "a change in the air":

In recent weeks I have felt that there is a certain change in the air, and I hope that this will mature, allowing the start of the diplomatic process.

We are serious in our intentions to reach a peace agreement.

Israel is ready for a peace process with the Palestinian Authority, without preconditions.

Netanyahu, however, added the caution, "Diplomatic plans said to be in my name that have appeared in the media have no truth."

There is also the standing obstacle of the declaration by PA leader Mahmoud Abbas that there will be no peace talks unless there is a complete freeze on Israeli settlements, both in East Jerusalem and the West Bank. Following his meeting with Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, Abbas repeated,

We have said and are still saying that at the time when settlement construction is stopped and the international legitimacy is recognized, we will be ready to resume the negotiations."

Our stance is known from the past and our stance remains the same - and in agreement with our brothers in Egypt - which is that we have no objections to negotiations or meetings in principle and we do not set conditions.

And then there was the complication of Israel's foreign minister Avigdor Lieberman. Lieberman hosted Quartet peace envoy Tony Blair and stated that reaching a final-status agreement within two years were unrealistic:

It is important to hold an honest, open dialogue with the Palestinians without sowing delusions that are disconnected with reality and that will only lead to violence and frustration. It is not possible to reach a full agreement within two years.

This is not a realistic goal. We need to begin direct talks without committing to any timeframe.

On Monday, U.S. State Department spokesman Ian Kelly was on the 'silent side' but, at least, was "hopeful":

QUESTION: There’s an unsourced report in the Israeli Hebrew language daily Ma’ariv, and there are a bunch of other reports out there elsewhere, talking about the possibility of an imminent resumption of peace talks between Prime Minister Netanyahu and President Abbas under an American plan.

MR. KELLY: I certainly hope so. I hope it’s before that. But whether it’s realistic or not, I can’t say.

MR. KELLY: Mm-hmm.

QUESTION: True?

MR. KELLY: Well, first of all, we’re not going to discuss any of the private correspondence or private discussions we have had with either side, including with the Israelis. I mean, you know what our goal is. Our goal is to get the two sides to agree to sit down and resume the talks, and so all of our efforts really are really directed toward that. And it wouldn't – I mean, it’s not appropriate for me to talk about what may or may not have been in any kind of private correspondence.

QUESTION: But are you on the verge of re-launching the resumption of talks?

MR. KELLY: I hope so. But I don’t have any information to announce on that.

QUESTION: I think we’re talking about the same report here, which says that the U.S.’s latest proposal envisions a Palestinian state within two years. The Israelis say that’s unrealistic. Is this a real report? I mean, is it coming from you guys?

MR. KELLY: I don’t really have any information about the specifics of that particular report.

QUESTION: Is it realistic, though, to think that the Palestinians could have a state within a couple of years?

Egyptian Foreign Minister Ahmed Aboul Gheit was also still "hopeful" about the future. He told reporter following the meeting between Mubarak and Abbas:

Our position is that the [Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's] ideas are taking the Israeli position forward.

This is a protracted process and needs patience, clarity and prudence so that the Palestinians do not find themselves in a difficult position.

Gheit and intelligence chief Omar Suleiman are going to be in Washington and the U.S. Mideast special envoy George Mitchell is going to be in the Middle East next week. Abbas' last words were that he would postpone any decision on whether or not to restart the talks until he sees what happens during Friday's visit to Washington by the two senior Egyptian officials.

The story continues without a conclusion: is there any "change" except in rhetoric?

Israel-Palestine: Is Egypt Bringing Abbas to Peace Talks?

On Tuesday, Egyptian Foreign Minister Ahmed Aboul Gheit said, after a meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, “I can’t talk about details, but the prime minister was discussing positions that surpass in our estimate what we’ve heard from them in a long time. I can’t say that he has come with changed positions, but he is moving forward.”

Are we getting glimpses of an emerging picture, one which will be completed when Egypt brings Palestinian Authority leader Mahmoud Abbas to the negotiating table?

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On Thursday, Netanyahu called for a meeting with Abbas later in January at the Egyptian Red Sea resort town of Sharm el-Sheikh. "There is a possibility of a breakthrough surrounding the resumption of peace talks between Israel and the Palestinian Authority which was proposed during Netanyahu's talks with Mubarak," senior officials in the Prime Minister's Office said.

However, the Palestinian Authority on Friday said it has not received an official request. Abbas' spokesman, Nabil Abu Rdeina, told Ma'an news agency, "We didn't receive anything about such a thing. So far what we heard was from the media. All that we know is that the president [Abbas] will be going on Wednesday to meet [Egyptian President Hosni] Mubarak."

Rdeinia said that that a Netanyahu-Abbas meeting would not constitute a formal resumption of final-status talks, and he added, "Negotiations do not need conditions [but] requirements under the road map."

So, despite Cairo's words, all remains confused and even contradictory. Israeli politician Yossi Beilin recently said that Netanyahu will give a new "concession" and announce a withdrawal plan with some adjustments to the 1967 borders. However, Ha'aretz has reported that despite the supposed construction freeze, dozens of settlements in the West Bank are expanding in addition to the approved 700 new apartments in East Jerusalem.

Let's see what Egypt is going to propose to Abbas.

Israel: Netanyahu Manoeuvring for Peace Talks with Palestine?

Eleven days ago, former Justice Minister Yossi Beilin told the Meretz Party leadership that Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu was close to finalizing an agreement with the Obama administration for peace talks between Israel and the Palestinian Authority, envisaging a two-state solution based on 1967 borders:

* Timetable: Netanyahu is willing to accept the U.S. proposal to allot 24 months to talks, but does not want to announce that the goal is to reach a deal by the end of that period.

* Borders: Netanyahu has agreed that the goal of the talks is to end the conflict on the basis of an independent Palestinian state on the basis of the 1967 borders, the exchange of agreed-upon territory, and a Jewish state with recognized and secure borders that will meet Israel's security needs.

* Jerusalem: Netanyahu has agreed that the status of Jerusalem will be discussed in the negotiations, but has not agreed to any preconditions on the issue.

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* Refugees: Netanyahu said he was willing to discuss the refugee issue only in a multilateral framework.

* Previous agreements: Netanyahu is willing to commit to all previously-signed agreements.

* Arab Peace Initiative: Netanyahu is not willing to support the plan, but is willing to say both sides are taking into consideration international initiatives, including this one, that contribute to the advancement of the peace process.

Although the government called Beilin's words "unfounded", Egyptian Foreign Minister Ahmed Aboul Gheit's "good news" following the meeting with Netanyahu, Palestinian Authority leader Mahmoud Abbas's scheduled visit to Cairo on Wednesday, and U.S. Mideast special envoy George Mitchell's expected visit in the second week of January lend weight to Beilin's scenario.

Some observers have linked these development to Netanyahu's reshaping of his Government. Haaretz's Akiva Eldar argued that "Netanyahu needs Kadima to fill the ranks that will empty in the wake of the departure of his partners from Yisrael Beiteinu and the National Union, and perhaps also some members of [Netanyahu's] Likud". Israel Harel from Haaretz added, "Netanyahu does need Kadima: to serve as a political counterweight to the ultra-Orthodox, in order to transform them from a growing burden to productive partners in building the Israeli state and Israeli society." Harel warned,however, that Likud might be divided again if Netanyahu cannot move further due to the Right's firm opposition.