Iran Analysis: Political Manoeuvring Around the Professor's Death

0600 GMT: News this morning continues to be dominated by the political moves around the killing of Professor Massoud Ali-Mohammadi.

Non-Iranian media are picking up on the messages of condolence from former Presidents Mohammad Khatami and Hashemi Rafsanjani (see yesterday's updates), noting that both call the murder an act of terrorism but that neither attributes blame to a particular group.

Khatami echoed the language of Iranian state media with the declaration, "The dirty hand who did this murder with no doubt was the enemy of Iran," and he condemned the group trying to "further destabilise the crisis". He stopped there, however, with no further indication of what that group was. Rafsanjani's reference to "cowardly terrorism" may have taken one step towards the regime by denouncing "a new era of intrigue", but he stopped ther

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That is significant, of course, for what is not said. Neither Khatami nor Rafsanjani are going to provoke a confrontation with the regime but hinting at responsibility of any element within it, or even a "rogue element" whose actions are being covered up. At the same time, neither are going to join in the state strategy of US-Israel-MKO-monarchists killing Ali-Mohammadi to disrupt Iran's nuclear programme and/or to destabilise the Government.


Equally important, the same is true of Mir Hossein Mousavi, Mehdi Karroubi, senior clerics challenging the Government, and almost all in the Green Movement. The speculation of an "inside job" has generally been limited to bits and pieces of circumstantial information on blogs and websites. The overwhelming majority of words have been devoted to Ali-Mohammadi, in particular confirming that he is not directly involved in a nuclear programme and that he supported the Mousavi Presidential campaign and had sympathy for the post-election protest.

This, in other words, is not the pretext to advance the legal and political demands upon the regime. To be blunt, there is no evidence to establish Government responsibility for the murder --- even Mr Smith's well-considered suggestion of "rogue elements" is based largely on an assessment of motives and past events such as the 1990s "Chain Murders" --- and one killing, no matter how tragic, should take over the Green movement's presentation. (For those who want to follow up, "Neda" is a different case because of the symbolism surrounding her death at the hands of a Basij gunman.)

The same is not true of the regime, where there is a sustained effort to turn the Ali-Mohammadi death into a rallying call against the "enemy" within and without. The latest volley comes this morning from the head of the Basij militia, Brigadier General Mohammad-Reza Naqdi, "People are angry at those who paved the ground for the recent incidents and assassinations. The revenge for these crimes should be taken on the US and with the support of God we will do so."

Watch for pro-Government analysts, as well as officials, to continue this line, which both replaces earlier lines of defense/attack (such as the alleged defacing of Imam Khomeini's image) and links to them. The story will be that the grave insult to the Iranian nation and Islam on Ashura (27 December) was met three days later by the millions who defended the nation and regime. This latest insult --- to a dedicated "revolutionary" as well as scientist --- will be met by more affirmation of Iran's resistance to and triumph over all its enemies.