Middle East Inside Line: War between Hezbollah and Israel?

This weekend, following The Washington Post's report that Hizbullah had moved long-range-missile launch pads into both northern Lebanon and the Bekaa Valley, Israel's Minister-without-Portfolio Yossi Peled said that another war with Hezbullah was "inevitable". Peled continued:

Without a doubt we are heading for another round (of fighting) in the North. No one knows when, but it's clear that it will happen. We did not know that the Second Lebanon War was going to break out.

However, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu did not see eye to eye with Peled. A statement issued by his office assured, "The State of Israel does not want any confrontation with Lebanon."

Israel-Palestine: Former Israeli Head of Negotiations "No Agreement in Foreseeable Future"

Udi Dekel, who headed Israel's negotiating team during the Ehud Olmert Government, has declared, "I do not believe that in the foreseeable future there is a possibility of an agreement with the Palestinians on all the issues, especially on the problematic core issues."

According to Dekel, the main mistake of the Olmert Government, which was in power from May 2006 to March 2009, was the inability to implement any point agreed upon during negotiations:

The biggest mistake was that everything was based on the premise that nothing is agreed until everything is agreed. We thought at the time that this could provide the necessary flexibility in the negotiations, but in practice, every time someone showed flexibility, the other side tried to pin him down. Therefore, I suggest that the model be changed and that whatever is agreed is implemented.

UPDATED Israel-Palestine: George Mitchell’s “Fail, Fail, Fail” Middle East Tour?

Dekel added that because "the Palestinians understood that the Americans were closer to their position on the issues of Jerusalem, the borders and security, [they] opted to wait it out", and discussions were stalemated:

The Palestinian approach was in principle the demand of 100 percent of their rights from 1967. The practical aspect interested them less. They are not willing to discuss any further compromise. We tried to build scenarios, some of them were imaginary, about specific compromises, but we found the Palestinians taking an approach of 'all or nothing.

Dekel now proposes adoption of a plan, floated by Palestinian Prime Minister Salam Fayyad, under which the focus would be the swift establishment of a Palestinian state, with borders and security the first issues to be negotiated:

The rest (of the issues) would be discussed in parallel but the establishment of a state would not be conditional on an overall agreement. The two sides are not ready for this at the moment and we should not believe that there is a way to get the sides to understand that this is the only relevant solution in this time frame.

Iran: Listening to Rumours, Whispers, and Shouts

Of course, there has never been a phase in this post-election conflict which has been one of clarity, even over the basic demand --- expressed in the march of hundreds of thousands on 15 June --- to overturn the result of the Presidential election. This phase, however, has been particularly complex and often confusing, with manoeuvres and statements coming from all directions outside and inside the Iranian establishment.

Mehdi Karroubi's Etemade Melli party tried to put out a clear signal yesterday that the fight, both over the election and the direction of the Iranian system, goes on. Using the symbolic event of Karroubi's visit to the family of Ali Reza Beheshti, the detained chief advisor of Mir Hossein Mousavi, the party's Saham News website declared that the regime had been ignoring the rights of people for years and now did not understand the meaning of the arrests of the arrests of "sons and daughters of the Revolution". (Ali Reza Beheshti is the son of the late Ayatollah Mohammad Beheshti, a key figure in the 1979 Revolution who founded Iran's judiciary.) It again cited Karroubi's case on detainee abuses, which he has pressed since July, with the example of Kahrizak Prison. (English-language summary of the statement)



Responding to a hard-line newspaper's claim that Karroubi had been "asleep" and only just woken to realise he had been manipulated by foreign agents, Etemade Melli declared:

Do you want to know who else is asleep and when they should wake up? Hold a free election or give permission for a free and safe gathering for the supporters of Karroubi and Mousavi then watch and see how people will wake you up. So it is necessary that you know that Karroubi is standing firm and confident and has proofs for all his remarks.

Etemade Melli's statement has received surprisingly attention so far outside Iran, however, in part because of the chatter over the country's economic situation. The rumours that Iran's banking sector is on the point of collapse only strengthened on Sunday, fuelled by news of individual cases of bank shutdowns and conflict. Peyke Iran, for example,featured the story of a bank in the Sadeghiyeh district of Tehran, where security forces had to disperse crowds who were demanding (unsuccessfully) the funds from their accounts.

The rumours sit, sometimes eerily, alongside other reports that there is no crisis. An EA source from Tehran reports, for example:

One can still write checks for any amount. Also, most people with bank accounts in Iran now have debit cards, and more and more stores are getting little debit card chargers. I paid my phone bill at the government office last week with my debit card. That is not an economy on the brink.

On the political scene, the biggest distraction was the story that Javad Larijani, a key official in Iran's judiciary and brother of Speaker of Parliament Ali and head of Judiciary Sadegh, had used a racial slur when denouncing Barack Obama. The episode overshadowed the important passages in Larijani's speech where he both praised and criticised Hashemi Rafsanjani, apparently in an effort to get the former President to declare his political position over the Ahmadinejad Government (see yesterday's updates).

UPDATED Israel-Palestine: George Mitchell's "Fail, Fail, Fail" Middle East Tour?

UPDATE 25 JANUARY: Following a second meeting with Israel's Defense Minister Ehud Barak in Tel Aviv on Saturday night, US Mideast special envoy George Mitchell met with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Sunday morning. Netanyahu said after the discussions that "new and interesting ideas" were raised for the resumption of peace talks with the Palestinians. However, he offered no details.

During the weekly cabinet meeting, Netanyahu repeated, "I expressed my hope that these new ideas will allow for the renewal of the (negotiating) process."

The start of US Middle East envoy George Mitchell's trip to the Middle East this week wasn't too bad. He stopped in Lebanon to declare that the country would play a key role in efforts to build lasting and comprehensive peace and stability in the Middle East.

Israel-Palestine: United Nations “Stop the Occupation of East Jerusalem”

For the third time, Mitchell met with Syrian President Bashar Assad in Damascus. That brought the standard You're Very Important line as well: "Syria, certainly has an important role to play in all these efforts, as do the US and international community."


Then the Middle East road got bumpy. On Thursday, Mitchell held meetings with Israeli President Shimon Peres, Defense Minister Ehud Barak, Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The US envoy put out President Obama's vision of a Palestinian state alongside Israel in peace, "We will pursue (that) until we achieve that objective." In Washington, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's statement seemed to be guarding against bad news from the West Bank:

This issue is between Israel and the Palestinians. The US, UK, EU and the Arab League, everybody can work together to create a positive atmosphere, we will continue to do whatever we can, and we urge both parties to return to the negotiations table.

And on Friday afternoon, Mitchell faced that challenge when he finally met with Palestinian Authority leader Mahmoud Abbas. Abbas was insistent on a full settlement freeze in West Bank and East Jerusalem before re-starting peace talks, and following the meeting, chief Palestinian negotiator Saeb Erekat said:

When we say a settlement freeze that includes Jerusalem, that is not a Palestinian condition. That is rather an Israeli obligation, and the same thing is applicable to our demand to have negotiations resume where we left them in December 2008.

Israel's Netanyahu, hwoever, put the ball in the court of Ramallah and called on the Palestinian Authority to "stop wasting time talking about how to enter the peace process." A statement released by the Prime Minister's office declared:

The Palestinian Authority are the ones that are preventing the re-launch of the peace process with their preconditions that they have never asked before from any previous Israeli government. The Prime Minister calls on the Palestinian Authority to sit at the negotiating table and discuss ways to promote security, peace, and prosperity for the two people.

The Latest from Iran (24 January): Watching Carefully

2200 GMT: And, on the political front, Mehdi Karroubi's Etemade Melli party has issued a statement calling for the holding of a free election and permission to stage demonstrations.

Etemade Melli, via the Saham News website, repeated that Karroubi had the material to back up his accusations of detainee abuse: "It is necessary for you to know that Mr. Karroubi is standing firm and tall and has evidence for all his comments." it added in an address to the country's regime.

2145 GMT: Little hard news tonight, although rumours about Iran's economic situation continue to swirl. There is also nothing to clarify an increasingly complex domestic political contest.

One news item catches the eye, however:

A Russian banking delegation, headed by the deputy governor of the country's Central Bank, is due to visit Tehran on Monday, the Iranian envoy to Moscow announced on Saturday.

NEW Iran and Israel: The Start of a Beautiful Friendship?
Iran Analysis: Should the Greens Be Waiting for Economic Collapse?
Iran Discussion: How Would Ahmadinejad Fall? (And What Would Come Next?)
UPDATED Iran: The Plot Against President Ahmadinejad
The Latest from Iran (23 January): Looking for Clues

"Deputy governor of Russia's Central Bank Melnikov and a number of officials from the other Russian banks will pay a visit to Iran on Monday in a bid to resolve banking issues and facilitate exchange and economic and trade activities between the two countries," Seyed Mahmoud Reza Sajjadi told [Fars News Agency].

The Russian delegation is scheduled to meet Deputy Governor of the Central Bank of Iran Pourmohammadi and managing directors of a number of Iranian banks to discuss ways to expand banking relations between the two states.

1745 GMT: Your Economic Update. Reuters has a useful English-language summary of President Ahmadinejad's budget presentation to the Iranian Parliament today. Kalemeh reports that the Central Bank has extended the deadline on the validity of banknotes marked with Green slogans, effectively allowing their circulation for the indefinite future. And Persian2English carries claims of difficulties with banks in Isfahan.

1535 GMT: Ayande News keeps up its recent jabbing at the Government and regime, asking why the Supreme Leader has SL dedicated 21 speeches to post-election events if this is not a crisis.

1530 GMT: Rezaei's Latest Manoeuvre. A valued EA correspondent reports on the latest speech by Presidential candidate (and possible Ahmadinejad opponent) Mohsen Rezaei, given to students in Gilan.

Rezaei, as his recent Press TV interview, maintained his distance from the opposition by emphasising that he made his complaints about the Presidential election within the law. At the same time he complained, "We still don’t know how to face the opposition group," and noted, "In some other countries, police keeps the opposition safe rather than attacking them." Rezaei also repeated his criticism of the "very weak" Ahmadinejad Government.

And a curious post-script: news of Rezaei's speech was on Tabnak, the website linked to him, but was removed after a few minutes.

1520 GMT: Head-Spinner. OK, I'm going to have this one to smarter people to interpret. According to Kalemeh, Davoud Ahmadinejad, the brother of the President and former head of the Investigation Office of Presidency, has labeled Presidential aide and ally Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai as an Israeli agent.

1510 GMT: Bank Issues. Peyke Iran supports Internet chatter with the story that shots have been fired at Bank Melli in the city of Ram Hormuz in southwestern Iran.

1340 GMT: The State of the Detainees. Fereshteh Ghazi has published a lengthy and wide-ranging article on those arrested after the election, including the detentions of family members of activists, the lack of information on Ashura and post-Ashura detainees for families and lawyers , and the health of prisoners such as former Foreign Minister Ebrahim Yazdi.

1210 GMT: Monica Luisa Macovei, a Romanian member of the European Parliament, has publicly declared in the Parliament, "I have decided to use most of my time for this intervention to highlight the names of people who, reportedly, are in detention in Iran, some convicted to death, for criticising the political regime or for defending civil rights."

Macovei mentioned the cases of five Ashura detainees charged with "mohareb" (war against God), the 33 Mothers of Mourning and supporters recently detained (almost all have been released), arrested members of the Committee of Human Rights Reporters, and other students who have been imprisoned. She asked, "What is the Commission or the Council going to do for the release of those imprisoned for political purposes? What funding does the Commission provide to human rights NGOs working on Iran?"

1150 GMT: The Standard Warning. The head of Iran's judiciary, Sadegh Larijani, has again warned of those seeking to create divisions within Iranian society, announcing that the Ministry of Culture and Islamic Guidance will be more vigilant in monitoring and punishing publications over false information.

1140 GMT: Blowing Smoke. Unsurprising, given the political and economic contests around him, that President Ahmadinejad would put out this line today: he will have good news within days about Iran being able to produce enriched uranium of 20 percent (versus current levels of 3-4 percent), and this will make all in the Iranian nation very happy.

1025 GMT: For My Next Trick. It will be interesting to see if President Ahmadinejad can pull this off: amidst fears of inflation, he has proposed a rise of almost 25 percent in the Government budget, from $279 billion to $368 billion.

0910 GMT: We've posted a Sunday Special which we hope brings both news and a smile, "Iran and Israel: The Start of A Beautiful Friendship?".

0840 GMT: Ahmadinejad's Budget. The President has presented his budget proposals to Iran's Parliament, the Majlis. He summarised, "Emphasizing a reduction of dependence on oil revenues and an increase of non-oil revenues, with a focus on industry, agriculture and housing —these are among the main attributes of the bill," before making his pitch, "I hope that the bill will be passed with the cooperation of all lawmakers who solve the problems of the country and pave the way for the development of Islamic Iran."

Now the fun and bargaining begin, as lawmakers have ten days to present comments about the bill to the technical commissions of the Majlis.

0820 GMT: Choose a Side, Rafsanjani? Hashemi Rafsanjani's general statement on Saturday, which we analysed in our updates, has not been enough to satisfy some who want him to "choose sides" in the conflict.

The bigger news, however, however, is that the battle may not be over whether Rafsanjani backs the Supreme Leader --- the former President offered allegiance yesterday, albeit with coded reservations --- but whether he is for or against President Ahmadinejad. And there it appears that Rafsanjani has some potential allies pushing him towards the latter position.

For example, the "hard-line" newspaper Kayhan has renewed its attacks on Rafsanjani with a Sunday editorial. What is just as significant, however, is that the news of those attacks is published in Khabar Online, linked to Ali Larijani, possibly to blunt them.

Khabar, reporting from Mehr News, also features a speech by Javad Larijani, a high-ranking official in the Judiciary and the brother of Ali (Speaker of Parliament) and Sadegh (head of Judiciary), praising Rafsanjani as a "great personality" but noting his three mistakes: 1) founding the Kargozaran party in the mid-1990s; 2) running for elections in 2005; 3) making ambiguous statements about Ahmadinejad during those elections.

Analysis? Come off the fence, Hashemi, and do so in support of others, not at the head of the movement.

0815 GMT: Persian2English has published a set of pictures from the "birthday ceremony" at Neda Agha Soltan's grave yesterday.

0810 GMT: Human Rights Activists in Iran reports that Mehdi Jalil-Khani, a writer, literary critic, and journalist from Zanjan, was arrested last week after a Ministry of Intelligence raid.

0805 GMT: We're be looking for further development on both the political and economic fronts today, separating facts from rumours as the pressure seems to build on President Ahmadinejad.

We have a special analysis which offers some caution, as an EA correspondent asks, "Should The Greens Be Waiting for Economic Collapse?"