Iran: Rafsanjani Chooses A Side?

An Iranian activist summaries this statement from Hashemi Rafsanjani, posted on Rafsanjani's official website, to a group of university professors of political science:

Supreme Leader and Valayet-e-Faqih (clerical supremacy) is the best (system). Islam is the best religion. Islam and (the) Republic is best for Iran. When people spoke against him he was defending the rights of the people and the Supreme Leader.

Concerning (Mohammad) Yazdi (a staunch supporter of Ahmadinejad, who launched a scatching criticism of Rasanjani's ambiguity this week), he smells a conspiracy.



Our values and system can be a model for the whole world.

The activist bitterly assesses that Rafsanjani, following Ayatollah Khamenei's recent warning to "choose sides", has made his decision clear. I'm not so sure.

Rafsanjani, for all his vagueness, has always declared allegiance to the Iranian system and usually to the Supreme Leader. If there is significance in the statement, it may lay in Rafsanjani's challenge to Yazdi. Rafsanjani, given the recurrent threats to him and his family, is playing defence, but he may also be turning defence into offence by threatening revelations about Yazdi and his allies.

And those allies, of course, would be Ahmadinejad allies....

UPDATED Iran Special Analysis: What Karroubi's Statement on "Mr Khamenei"/"Head of Government" Means

UPDATE 1555 GMT: Karroubi Clarifies, Repeats, Challenges. From The Flying Carpet Institute, via the Facebook site linked to Mir Hossein Mousavi and Saham News:
Mehdi Karoubi, in a meeting with a group of prominent political figures including some of the leaders of reformist parties said:

“Although today they have shut down newspapers, filtered websites, imprisoned many of our dear friends, closed down the office of [reformist] parties including the Etemade Melli office and even my personal office, although they fired shots at my car, although some are threatening everyday and are insulting Mir Hossein Mousavi, me and the great nation of Iran in every way possible and take our words out of content, but I am firmly announcing that I never compromise over people’s rights and one of the main rights of this nation is their votes that they casted in the ballot boxes while trusting the authorities; and I will be with the people till the very end and will try for holding free elections and eliminating current obstacles."

"I will announce my detailed views regarding the principles of the Islamic Revolution, defending people’s rights and the necessity for holding free elections to the noble nation of Iran soon.”

UPDATE 0900 GMT: Persian2English has published a translation of the Karroubi "clarification" carried on Rah-e-Sabz last night. This was one of the key pieces of evidence behind our analysis, as the Karroubi camp deliberately "fed" this information to a trusted reporter to ensure the widest dissemination:

"It was reported by Fars News, Iran’s official news agency, that Mehdi Karoubi has officially recognized the status of Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

Mr. Mojtaba Vahedi, advisor for Mehdi Karoubi responded to such claims. Talking to a JARAS reporter, he said: “I talked to Mr. Karoubi and he claims that Mr. Abu-Torabi has uttered some words that are not true.”

According to the advisor, Mr. Karoubi talked in detail about the rigged election. Following his speech, Karoubi explained, “A few reporters gathered around and asked a few questions. I told them that the government has been sworn in and has the responsibility to respond to the people’s needs. In the same interview I stressed that there has been a rigging in the election and I stand by my words. I am not so whimsy to retreat because of insults and threats. But people have daily needs that the residing government needs to respond to. I also told an English paper that they can rest assured that Ahmadinejad’s government will not last four years.”

Karoubi’s last words were: “My words are the words of the nation: where is our vote?”

--
EA staff had a conference late last night to go over all the information we have --- from websites and sources inside Iran --- on Mehdi Karroubi's statement, reflecting on the Presidential election and his acceptance of Mr Ahmadinejad as the "head of the government of the regime" because it had been decreed by "Mr Khamenei".

We are watching for further developments today and may revise our analysis, however, for now, here is our reading:

Iran Snap Analysis: The Karroubi and Khatami Manoeuvres
The Latest from Iran (26 January): Now for the Follow-Up….
The Latest from Iran (25 January): Who Makes A Move Today?

1. KARROUBI HAS TAKEN A STAND AGAINST THE "PRESIDENT" AND THE SUPREME LEADER

We are treating the statement put out on Karroubi's website, Saham News, as the cleric's primary line. (We note the interviews given by Hossein Karroubi to a series of reporters, including Radio Farda, BBC Persian, and Associated Press, but there are ambiguities and some confusion in how those interviews are being written up.) This is the key line:

Due to the fact that Mr Khamenei has 'confirmed/given legal validity to the decree which stated that Ahmadinejad has been elected, for this reason, I consider him [Mr Ahmadinejad] to be the 'head of the government of this regime'.

Ahmadinejad is not the President and holds his position not by the will of the voters but the pronouncement of Ayatollah Khamenei. He thus does not have legitimacy. (The most important follow-up to the Saham News statement is a story fed to Rah-e-Sabz, in which Karroubi repeated that he stood with the people and said he did not expect Ahmadinejad to last four years.)

And it's not the Supreme Leader but "Mr Khamenei". That is not a slip, because the statement has been unchanged on Saham News for hours. And that is not respect but an insult.

2. DID KARROUBI INTEND TO TAKE THIS STAND?

This is still not clear, given the chain of events. The confusing series of events started when Karroubi spoke with a group of reporters Monday morning. What he did not anticipate was that Fars News, having asked the question whether Karroubi accepted that the June Presidential election was legal, printed his answer as a recognition of Ahmadinejad as "the President". So, in one sense, Hossein Karroubi's series of interviews throughout the day and even the Saham News statement were "damage control", protecting his father against charges that he had sold out to the regime.

"Damage control", however, did not require that Karroubi take his political shots at Mr Khamenei and "the head of the government of the regime". So whether or not the cleric started the morning with a plan for a fight or whether he was bumped into it by the Fars episode, the outcome is the same.

3. THIS HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH THE CHALLENGE OF THE "ESTABLISHMENT WITHIN".

My first attempt at analysis connected the Karroubi manoeuvre with the initiative by Ali Larijani-Mohsen Rezaei-Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf to curb or even topple Ahmadinejad. Just forget I wrote that --- I was wrong.

4. BUT THIS DOES DISTANCE KARROUBI FROM KHATAMI

The interesting sub-plot today has been obvious "clear blue water" between Mehdi Karroubi and Mohammad Khatami. As Saham News was putting out the right line on Karroubi v. Khamenei/Ahmadinejad this afternoon, it was also taking shots at former President Khatami. In particular, Saham News was playing up the story --- which has not been confirmed --- that Khatami had sent a letter to the Supreme Leader seeking reconcilation. What's more, Saham was pressing the point that Khatami had "recognised" the current Government, thus distinguishing his position from that of Karroubi.

Why the divergence? Well, that's a story to be considered over following days. But let's be clear: Mehdi Karroubi is out front on this political challenge.

5. AND MOUSAVI?

But is Karroubi also far ahead of Mir Hossein Mousavi? So far Mousavi has been silent on the day's events, apart from his website Kalemeh reprinting the Saham News statement.

6. COULD EVERYTHING CHANGE?

As we broke up the meeting tonight, an EA correspondent said, "You know, Karroubi may well have another statement out when we wake up in the morning." Indeed, he could, even to the point of issuing another clarification that withdraws/modifies his "Mr Khamenei" position.

But, at the least, we can't see Karroubi withdrawing his now sustained condemnation --- sometimes explicit, sometimes in a bit of coding, as today --- of President Ahmadinejad. At most, he separates Mr Khamenei from his criticism.

So pull back all those headlines that came out earlier today (and are still in some "Western" publications). This is not recognition of the President. This is, to adopt a US term, "dis-respecting".

It's not a question of if, but how far, Karroubi wants to push it.

Palestine: Hamas & Fatah Battle Over Legitimacy of Legislative Council

On Monday, Hamas and Fatah officials exchanged accusations and condemnations over the status of the Hamas-dominated Palestinian Legislative Council.

According to the Palestinian basic law, the four-year term for the PLC ends on Monday. Hamas, which won elections in Gaza in January 2006, declares that until a new election is held, the council is still legal. Fatah insists that there must be an immediate election to have a legal council.

Azzam al-Ahmad, head of Fatah party block in the parliament, said in a press statement: "According to the Palestinian basic constitution, al-Dewik is not anymore the speaker of the council. The only person who is authorized to call...a special session for the parliament is President Mahmoud Abbas."

Palestine: Conflicting Statements from Hamas on Israel’s Right to Exist
Israel-Palestine: Netanyahu Makes A Move on the West Bank

On the other hand, Sami Abu Zuhri, Hamas movement's spokesman, told Xinhua that " the current parliament will be legal until new elections are held and the new elected legislatures do the sworn-in", adding "Hamas is not afraid of holding the elections, but only after ending the current division and reconciliation."

Zuhri, indeed, went one step further: "The problem is not whether the parliament is legal or illegal, because according to the law, it is legal until the new elections are held. But the problem is with Abbas, who is not anymore representing the Palestinians after his mandate expired."

Latest Iran Audio: Hossein Karroubi on His Father's Statement (25 January)

After a day of some confusion, Mehdi Karroubi's son Hossein spoke with BBC Persian last night to clarify his father's statement about the Presidential election, the Ahmadinejad Government, and the Supreme Leader:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d9uYgr55Jqk[/youtube]

Palestine: Conflicting Statements from Hamas on Israel's Right to Exist

Following a meeting in Hebron with British millionaire David Martin Abrahams on Wednesday, Aziz Dwaik, a Hamas senior representative and the elected speaker of the Palestinian Legislative Council in the West Bank, said that Hamas has accepted Israel’s right to exist and would be prepared to alter its charter.

There have been two developments since then. Firstly, there have been contradictory signals from Hamas, with some officials saying the group accepts the two-state solution but only as a temporary measure and others declaring that they accept Israel's right to exist and want dialogue.

Palestine: Hamas & Fatah Battle Over Legitimacy of Legislative Council
Israel-Palestine: Netanyahu Makes A Move on the West Bank

Mahmoud Ramahi, another top Hamas operative in the West Bank, said that his movement was indeed willing to accept an independent Palestinian state within the pre-1967 lines, but only on a temporary basis and without recognizing Israel's right to exist.



Ghazi Hamad, a senior Hamas representative in the Gaza Strip, confirmed that his movement was considering the possibility of changing its charter. In an interview with the Saudi daily Okaz, Hamad said that the Hamas charter, like any other document, may be subject for changes and discussions. However, Hamad also stressed that "accepting" Israel did not mean that Hamas would "recognize" the Jewish state.

In contrast, Salah Bardaweel, a Hamas legislator and spokesman from the Gaza Strip, said that his movement was not seeking the destruction of Israel. Bardaweel spoke to a Hamas-affiliated Web site:

There is a huge difference between our demand to restore the Palestinian people's rights and the annihilation of Israel. We haven't said that [we want] to destroy Israel, but we are striving to restore our people's rights and refugees' right to return to their dwellings and land from which they were deported.

Meanwhile, the rival Palestinian organisation Fatah tried to exploit Hamas' apparent concession to Israel.. "The true face of Hamas has finally been exposed by Dwaik's remarks to the British millionaire," said Ahmad Assaf, a spokesman for Fatah in the West Bank. Asaf continued:

Hamas is seeking recognition of the international community at the expense of the Palestinians' interests and national rights. In one voice directed toward our people and Arabs and Muslims, Hamas is saying that it's a resistance movement. In another voice directed toward the international community, Hamas is talking about its readiness to recognize Israel and accept a long-term hudna [temporary truce].

At the same time, a senior Palestinian Authority official in Ramallah condemned initiatives by some EU citizens and officials to talk to Hamas, accusing them of "ignoring the fact that Hamas had staged a coup in the Gaza Strip". He said:

Meetings between Hamas and Westerners is undermining efforts to achieve reconciliation between Hamas and Fatah. Those who are trying to legitimize Hamas are harming the Palestinian Authority and any chance of achieving peace with Israel.

The Palestinian Authority has also sent an aggressive signal, as security agents on Sunday arrested six men who work as aides to Dwaik. The Hamas representative condemned the arrest of his aides as "an act of piracy" and "an assault on his parliamentary immunity". He also warned that the arrests could harm efforts by some Arab countries to achieve "national reconciliation" between Hamas and Fatah.