Iran & Karroubi: Why This is "Much Ado About Something"

Yesterday afternoon, the high-profile blog Babylon & Beyond declared that the attention given to Mehdi Karroubi's Monday statement about the legitimacy of the Ahmadinejad Government, as decreed by "Mr Khamenei", was "Much Ado About Nothing".

The blog was useful in correcting some key information, for example, quoting a Tehran analyst, "Karroubi [has] not budged at all. Karroubi said that the government is the government of the system. So it does not imply he has recognized it." However, because of its focus in taking apart the wayward media coverage of the statement --- a coverage corrected by the better analysts of the complexities of Iran's internal crisis --- it missed the more important point:

This is definitely Much Ado About Something.

Iran: Rafsanjani Chooses A Side?
Iran Special Analysis: What Karroubi’s Statement on “Mr Khamenei”/”Head of Government” Means
Latest Iran Audio: Hossein Karroubi on His Father’s Statement (25 January)
Iran Snap Analysis: The Karroubi and Khatami Manoeuvres

Karroubi may or may not have intended to stake out a direct challenge to the Government and regime when he met the large group of reporters and onlookers on Monday. But, once Fars News pushed him with the false claim that he had recognised "President" Ahmadinejad, he and his closest advisors chose to make a stand. Even the initial response given at the conference, with its "Mr Khamenei" and description of Ahmadinejad as the "head of the government of the regime", was a put-down, but throughout Monday and Tuesday, the clarifications got tougher and tougher in their tone and intentions.


The Facebook site supporting Mir Hossein Mousavi and The Flying Carpet Institute have tracked Karroubi's course, set out by his website Saham News, with a series of English translations. This was Karroubi's son Mohammad Taghi yesterday:

Mehdi Karroubi is an honest and brave man who won’t sell his eternal life and people’s love, for the sake of this short material life. If there was a case of compromise or ignoring the events, he would have not tolerated all the insults, inhuman attacks and assassination threats for seven months. Be sure that if there is any news that Mehdi Karoubi would know about, he will announce that truthfully and bluntly. There is no compromise and there is no fear.

Legitimacy and reality are two separate issues. In order to gain legitimacy in any case there is the need to satisfy certain conditions. Mehdi Karroubi have repeatedly said this since the first day [after the election] until today that he does not accept that the result of the election was based on the votes casted by the people. Even yesterday he emphasised that there are issues with the results. In his views the results of the election were fabricated. But following the confirmation by the Guardian Council and the Supreme Leader according to the law, Ahmadinejad became the head of the administration, whether we like it or not.

The head of the administration gives the budget and makes decisions that influence our lives, we cannot deny this reality. But to gain recognition and legitimacy, it is needed to satisfy certain conditions and the protestors believe those conditions were not met.

Then there was Karroubi himself, in his latest statement:

With the passing of time, I become even more convinced of the extensive manipulations and fraud that took place in the recent elections, as every day we receive new information that demonstrates the regrettable nature in which the authorities handled the trust given to them by the people of Iran....

Ask yourself what were the desires and demands of the the people who spontaneously came to the streets in such large numbers after the election? What were the demands of the 3 million people who roared in the streets from Imam Hossein to Azadi Square, with their silent march, without any form of advertising or propaganda motivating them to attend? Should the response to a nation who took to the streets with such noble intentions have been batons, tear gas and gun shots? Should our dear youth who dared ask “Where is our Vote?” within the framework of the law have faced violence and death at Kahrizak and other prisons?”

We should tell those responsible for these atrocities “How do you expect the people of Iran to accept your one sided claims regarding the election when it is so evident that you lie? Did some of you not have the audacity to suggest that these young people had lost their lives to meningitis? Would you have ever admitted to the occurrence of these crimes had it not been for persistent and defiant cries & demands by myself, Mr. Mousavi and the brave nation of Iran?

Just as important, Karroubi is not alone. Zahra Rahnavard, the wife of Mir Hossein Mousavi and an important political figure in her own right, was forceful and eloquent when she declare, We neither recognise Ahmadinejad’s administration [as a legitimate government] nor compromise but we are honestly following people’s rights and demands….We have put our hearts as our shields and we are ready for any bullet, attack or assassination."

Consider both the scope and timing of this episode. With the passage of month, the regime had been successful in moving attention away from June's Presidential election, even as the general notion of opposition to the "system" was being debated amongst the opposition. Of course, no protester was recognising Ahmadinejad, but the specific issues in play were now injustices and the abuses of detainees.

The effect of the last 48 hours has been to resurrect the electoral, as well as the political and judicial, legitimacy of Ahmadinejad. And that in turn raises an interesting intersection: while the "conservative" opposition to the President does not want to revisit June, they do want to take down Ahmadinejad's allies and curb his authority. So now "the head of the government of the regime" faces a renewed challenge from multiple direcitons.

And all of this occurs in what was supposed to be the quieter water between Ashura and the commemoration of the Islamic Revolution's anniversary (1-11 February). Without taking to the streets, even as many of its leading activists have been swept up in arrests, the opposition has taken the initiative.

None of this should be read as a coordinated victory. Some in the Green movement, after the initial confusion over Monday's statement, are still distrustful and even disdainful of "Obi-Wan Karroubi", and there is still uncertainty over the relationship between Karroubi and Mohammad Khatami. I suspect, however, that both of these tensions will diminish in the next week.

It also remains to be seen whether this challenge, which Karroubi is again framing as one against the Government rather the system despite his "Mr Khamenei" jibe, will be expanded to take on the Supreme Leader. It is possible, however, that this question --- again because of the most recent developments --- can be put behind the immediate confrontation.

Legitimacy. That is what the fight was over in June. And 7 1/2 months, it is still the battleground. "President" Ahmadinejad can run, but this week will re-establish that he cannot hide.

Gaza: Israel Rejects Another High-Level Visit

Israel's Deputy Foreign Minister Danny Ayalon has denied Belgian International Development Minister Charles Michel's request to visit the Gaza Strip. Ayalon told the Belgian minister that Israel could not authorize the request, as official visits to the Strip are interpreted as giving legitimacy to Hamas.

In response to Ayalon's rejection, Michel said, "It's not normal that access to Gaza is denied to a minister whose country is funding projects there."

Israel: Defense Minister Barak “Palestine Peace Bigger Issue Than Iran’s Bomb”
Israel: Netanyahu’s “War on Evil”
Palestine: Conflicting Statements from Hamas on Israel’s Right to Exist

Israel: Netanyahu's "War on Evil"

On the eve of International Holocaust Remembrance Day, during a ceremony at Yad Vashem on Monday, Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu called on the international community to fight against the increasing "evil" of anti-Semitism which is seeking the destruction not only of Israel but also the rest of the world. Netanyahu continued:

There is an evil that can spread and threaten the security of Jews. We know that this just begins with Jews, and then continues on to the rest of the world. There are today new people who hate Jews, with new reasons for [wanting] the destruction of the Jewish state. This is our concern.

Without explicitly signifying Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran, Netanyahu declared, "This is a test for humanity and we will see in the coming weeks how the international community stops this evil before it spreads."

Israel: Defense Minister Barak “Palestine Peace Bigger Issue Than Iran’s Bomb”
Gaza: Israel Rejects Another High-Level Visit
Palestine: Conflicting Statements from Hamas on Israel’s Right to Exist

Afghanistan-Pakistan Special: Mr Obama's Revenge of the Drones

Much tinkling of the keypads has ensued in the drive to comment on the Obama Administration's Afghanistan strategy, in particular the escalation of troop strength. Less noticed in the clatter, particularly in the UK, has been the Pakistan portion of the strategy. Dribs and drabs of that approach have leaked out over the last few months. In February 2009, Senator Diane Feinstein inadvertently (or possibly deliberately in an effort to illustrate the hypocrisy of the Pakistani government) revealed that the unmanned drones carrying out missile strikes in Pakistan were being flown out of a secret base in Pakistan.

Then in the latter half of last year detailed studies of the drones began to appear. Peter Bergen and Katherine Tiedemann first looked at the growth in the number of drone strikes in Pakistan. Then they analyzed the casualties from drone attacks in an effort to determine how many civilians were being killed in the strikes. They concluded that of the 750 to 1050 killed by drones between 2006 and October 2009, one third were civilians. Chiming in the same month was journalist Jane Mayer who in a lengthy and thoughtful piece in The New Yorker examined the expansion of drone attacks by the Obama administration, including their effectiveness, and legality.

The statistics related to the drones are startling. Since Barack Obama took office, there have been 58 drone strikes in Pakistan. This is 32 more strikes than occurred in the entire second term of the Bush Administration and represents nearly 70 percent of all drone attacks that have occurred in Pakistan since 2004. Below are statistics drawn from an effort to map out the location of the strikes using Google Earth.



Drone Strikes by Year [Source, including map]

Drone Attacks in Pakistan by Numbers and Percentages [Source, including map]



Obama Drone Strikes in Pakistan (23 January 2009 to 20 January 2010) [Source: Ben]

For 2010 alone, the number of attacks projected over 365 days would be 201. January 2010 has already seen more than double the previous monthly record of drone attacks and more than occurred in the years 2004 to 2007. This is a massive escalation of drone strikes and points to a particular strategic approach by the current administration to the problem of Pakistan. The administration signaled a further escalation when Obama made his long awaited strategic speech about Afghanistan on 1 December 2009. Nothing about the CIA-operated drones actually appeared in the president’s speech. Instead, administration officials briefed the New York Times that part of the new effort in Afghanistan would involve a substantial increase in CIA covert operations within Pakistan, including drone attacks.

This briefing demonstrated once more that what once occurred under the rubric of counter-terrorism is anything but. One of the striking points made in Jane Mayer's detailed examination of the Obama administration's drone policy is that a growing number of the attacks are not against al-Qaeda targets, the original justification for “targeted killings” by the CIA, but against the Taliban and other Pakistani insurgents. Increasingly, the Pakistani government is apparently having input into the American target selection as the drones become a weapon of counter-insurgency

In a very real sense then drone attacks are less about counter-terrorism operations in Pakistan and more about counter-insurgency operations in support of the mission in Afghanistan. The drones represent the perfect tool for the Obama administration since they can simultaneously fulfill two of his foreign policy promises: to go after al-Qaeda and to make Afghanistan the priority war. Sudden death and destruction from the sky also readily provides the image of a proactive United States savaging its enemies instead of passively waiting for them to strike. The problem with that approach, however, is that it leaves Pakistan out of the equation. The formula doesn’t calculate the wider political damage being done to the image of the United States in Pakistan, something Secretary of State Hillary Clinton recently encountered first hand on a visit when Pakistanis complained to her about the attacks, one even calling the tactic terrorism. Driving the escalation of drone attacks appears to be short-term thinking with the drones a convenient and satisfying means to seek vengeance against enemies, witness the escalation of drone attacks against targets in Pakistan since the suicide attack which killed 7 CIA members in Afghanistan on 30 December. An “angry senior American intelligence official” told the New York Times that “[s]ome very bad people will eventually have a very bad day.”

It is worth remembering these words of caution about the path the Obama Administration is enthusiastically following: "We are against targeted killings. We are against the use [by the Israelis] of heavy weaponry in urban areas, even when it comes to people … who have been responsible for the deaths of American citizens. We do think these people need to be brought to justice." So said Bush Administration State Department spokesman Richard Boucher in September 2002.

The Latest from Iran (26 January): Now for the Follow-Up....

2200 GMT: Closing Notes (Until Tomorrow). Big news is that, despite attempts by some analysts to declare "Much Ado About Nothing", Mehdi Karroubi has not only clarified his challenge today, not only maintained it, but declared that he will soon be extending it by setting out his demands on the electoral, legal, and political processes.

Elsewhere, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has maintained his own defiance by appointing aide Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai, the target of both "reformist" and "conservative" opposition,  as the chief of the President’s youth advisors. This is an addition to Mashai’s positions of President’s deputy for affairs of Iranians living abroad, special advisory of President in oil affairs, head of assembly for free economic zones, and the chairman of the cultural commission in the cabinet.

Mohammad Taqi Rahbar, the head of the clergies committee in Parliament, is not impressed, however: he has criticised Ahmadinejad’s special relationship with Mashai, declaring that the President is sacrificing the regime and Government for Mashai’s favour.

NEW Iran: Rafsanjani Chooses A Side?
NEW Iran Special Analysis: What Karroubi’s Statement on “Mr Khamenei”/”Head of Government” Means
NEW Latest Iran Audio: Hossein Karroubi on His Father’s Statement (25 January)
Iran Snap Analysis: The Karroubi and Khatami Manoeuvres
The Latest from Iran (25 January): Who Makes A Move Today?

And now your nominee for bravest/most ridiculous sentence of the week: the head of the Guardian Council, Ayatollah Ahmed Jannati says: "We (the Guardian Council) held the recent election without the tiniest problem."

2030 GMT: Going after the Reporters. Two senior members of the Committee of Human Rights Reporters, Koohyar Goodarzi and Mehrdad Rahimi, have been accused of "mohareb" (war against God).

1930 GMT: We've posted a special snap analysis of Hashemi Rafsanjani's statement today, which may or may not indicate he has "chosen a side" in the current conflict.

1745 GMT: Rumour of Day (3). Saham News claims that Mohammad Jafar Behdad, the political deputy of President Ahmadinejad’s bureau, has been sentenced to jail on the basis of two accusations by Ali Larijani and one by Hashemi Rafsanjani.

The charge is that Behdad wrote in an online article, deleted 50 minutes later, that those who are to blame for the killing of protesters are the persons who called Mir Hossein Mousavi on the afternoon of the elections to congratulate him, causing his delusion and subsequent decision for instigating the people to revolt. That claim points at Larjiani who, according to politicians like Ali Reza Zakani, contacted Mousavi with the news of "victory".

1740 GMT: Rumour of Day (2). Rah-e-Sabz follows up the story, linked to our analysis of Mehdi Karroubi's initiative, that former President Mohammad Khatami wrote a letter to the Supreme Leader, asking for Ayatollah Khamenei's intervention to stop the illegal activities and disregard of citizen rights of the regime.

The website reports, from an "informed source", that the Supreme Leader rejected the analysis and recommendations. It adds, dampening down the "recogntion of the President" story and any serious Karroubi-Khatami split, that rumours of Khatami criticising the reformists or endorsing the legitimacy of the government are untrue and are being spread by the regime to cause divisions in the Green movement.

1730 GMT: Rumour of Day (1). Rah-e-Sabz claims that the son of Ali Larijani was arrested during the Ashura demonstrations. He was allegedly released 24 hours later when his identity was established.

1620 GMT: The Supreme Leader's Response: It's All About the Internet. Not sure if this is really going to answer the challenge put forth in the last 24 hours....

Ayatollah Khamenei has declared in a speech on state television, "The Americans have said that they have allocated a $45 million budget to help them to confront the Islamic Republic of Iran via the Internet....This decision shows the height of the enemy's frustration. They have spent tens of billions of dollars in the past (in confronting Iran), but have achieved no results."

Leave aside the fact that the facts are a bit off-the-mark (the US Senate voted in July to allocate $50 million to expand American broadcasts and get around Internet restrictions). Can't see how Mehdi Karroubi's "Mr Khamenei" is a product of Washington's schemes.

1610 GMT: Karroubi Makes It Clear. We've posted an update on our special analysis, with Mehdi Karroubi's speech today bearing out our interpretation. It's not only that he challenged both the Government and the Supreme Leader yesterday; he's going to keep doing it.

Get ready for an escalation in the conflict.

1310 GMT: MediaFail of the Day. I've stayed away from the "Western" media coverage of the Karroubi statement, even though a lot of it is still wrong over the recognition of Ahmadinejad: this has been a confusing story and I was well off-the-mark yesterday afternoon.

That said, The Washington Post has screwed up well beyond the norm in this item in its World Digest: "Opposition's Mehdi Karroubi softens stance on Iran's leadership". It condenses an Associated Press story to the basics: "In a major shift, a senior opposition figure announced that he now recognizes Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as the head of Iran's government while standing by his assertions that the presidential election was rigged....Mehdi Karroubi's new position is a retreat from his statements after the June 12 election, when he insisted that Ahmadinejad's government was illegitimate."

The original AP story by Akbar Dareini was muddled and missed important points, such as Karroubi's use of "Mr Khameini"; however, it had key passages such as, "The elder Karroubi deliberately refrained from using the word 'president' in order not to give full legitimacy to Ahmadinejad's administration." Its claim, from Karroubi's son Hossein, that the cleric "believes Ahmadinejad's government was on the verge of collapse" is softened in the World Digest to the opposition is "seeking Ahmadinejad's removal".

1210 GMT: Not Recognising Ahmadinejad. An EA reader reports that German and Swedish media are still dominated by line that Mehdi Karroubi recognised Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as "President", so these related comments from Zahra Rahnavard (see 0640 GMT), the wife of Mir Hossein Mousavi, deserve repetition:

We neither recognise Ahmadinejad’s administration [as legitimate government] nor compromise but we honestly are following on people’s rights and demands....

We have put our hearts as our shields and we are ready for any bullet, attack or assassination.

1030 GMT: Remain Calm, All is Well (with Bonus Cultural Reference). Press TV puts out the reassurance this morning:

Bank Melli Iran (BMI) is the largest bank in Iran and across the Islamic world, considering its total assets of around $54bn, a BMI official says. The total assets of BMI at the end of second quarter of 1388 (September, 2009) have increased to US $59 billion, the head of financial department at BMI, Hojatollah Ghasemi, said Monday, denying reports that the bank is bankrupt.

Ghasemi said that BMI has no debt to Iran's central Bank, adding that the bank has no delay in repaying its international commitments.

Forgive me, but when I read the story, given the recent flurry of rumours of the demise of Iran's banks, I made this cross-cultural jump:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zDAmPIq29ro[/youtube]

0905 GMT: The Mothers of Mourning have called for the immediate release of Parvaneh Maddah-Raad, who has been detained since late December. Maddah-Raad was arrested when she intervened to protest the beating of a young demonstrator at the weekly gather of the Mothers of Mourning in Laleh Park.
0900 GMT: We've posted the audio of Hossein Karroubi, the son of Mehdi Karroubi, talking to BBC Persian about his father's statement.

Also, in response to readers who are asking about the reasons for our current analysis of Karroubi's challenge to the Supreme Leader and Government, we are posting an update on our special analysis.

0734 GMT: The Regime Fights Over Newspaper. Now it appears that Government officials can't even see straight on which publications should be banned. According to Ayande News, Tehran Prosecutor Abbas Jafari Doulatabadi summoned officials of the Ministry of Culture and Islamic Guidance officials. He declared that he would act against media spreading false news, then criticized the Ministry for arbitrarily banning some of the media while others were openly violating laws by spreading lies and offending top members of the Government and regime.

0730 GMT: On the Economic Front. Not even Press TV tries to spin this news:

Iran's labor and social affairs minister says the country has failed to decrease the jobless rate to below 7 percent due to "the crises and global sanctions."

On Monday, Abdolreza Sheikholeslami told the Fars News Agency that the unemployment rate is about 11 percent.

The Fourth Five-Year Development Plan (2005-2010) had obliged the government to bring the jobless rate to under 7 percent by the end of the plan.

"A seven percent unemployment rate had not been achieved, as a goal, in the Fourth Five-Year Development Plan, due to the crises and global sanctions," Sheikholeslami said, without elaborating.

The Statistics Center of Iran announced that the national unemployment rate rose to 11.3 percent in the third quarter of the calendar year (ended December 21, 2009), up 1.8 percent compared to the previous year.

0640 GMT: Rahnavard on "Legitimacy". Amidst the discussion of Mehdi Karroubi's statement, Mir Hossein Mousavi has been silent. However, his wife, Tehran University academic Zahra Rahnavard, has not.

In an interview with Fereshteh Ghazi, Rahnavard makes clear that Mousavi does not and will not recognise the Ahmadinejad Government.

0635 GMT: Here's one to raise the eyebrows on the international front. The three-day visit to Russia by Saeed Jalili, Secretary of the National Security Council, due to start today, has been postponed "indefinitely".

0630 GMT: Ayatollah Bayat-Zanjani's Intervention. We made an error in translation when reporting the cleric's latest criticism of the regime yesterday. His demand of the Government was that it should "prohibit" the bad and undesirable in its actions.

0600 GMT: We will spend today seeing just how important yesterday's Karroubi statement, on Mr Khamenei and the "President", is. That will depend not only on whether Karroubi modifies the declaration or lets it stand but also on the reactions of others. Key participants like Mir Hossein Mousavi have not emerged; perhaps more importantly, there is still confusion and division in the Green movement(s) over Karroubi's move.

Some activists take the line that the statement is a concession, if not to Ahmadinejad by "recognising" him as President, then to the Supreme Leader by acknowledging his legitimacy. That opinion is sometimes linked to the assessment that Karroubi, like the regime, wants to avoid a bloody confrontation on 22 Bahman (11 February). Others, however --- and this is the current EA line, after my initial confusion and mis-interpretation --- see this as a challenge to both Government and Ayatollah Khamenei.

For now, we'll stand by the analysis that we debated and then put out last night, watching for the follow-up --- from Karroubi, from opposition leaders like Mousavi and Mohammad Khatami, from  the regime, and from the Green movement(s) --- today before making any revisions.