US Politics: Scott Lucas on Obama "1 Year On" and on the US Senate

A day of political chatter, as I find myself with a different view than US-based pundits of both President Obama's first year in office and of last night's Republican victory in the special election for US Senator in Massachusetts. Take your pick from BBC World Service (from start, my contribution from 0:11:45), BBC Radio 5 (1:39:20 mark), BBC Radio Wales (2:37:00), or BBC Radio Scotland (0:40:00).

The Latest from Iran: If Khamenei's Other Shoe Drops (20 January)

2240 GMT: Balatarin Lives (for Real). An update and possible correction on our earlier story (1914 GMT) about the fate of Balatarin, the Iranian news portal. The site is back up, and some Iranian activists are saying that the supposed "successor" Agah Tarin was actually a regime attempt at imitation.

2000 GMT: An Iranian activist reports that journalist Nasrin Vaziri has been released after 23 days in prison.

1950 GMT: Rah-e-Sabz reports that Ali Reza Beheshti, Mir Hossein Mousavi's chief advisor, has suffered a heart attack in detention. It adds, however, that Beheshti has contacted his family and said that he is now better.

1914 GMT: Balatarin Lives. Balatarin, an Iranian website similar to the Digg or NewsVine portals, has been an important news source during the post-election crisis but was knocked off-line recently. Now a successor, Agah Tarin, has appeared.

1910 GMT: Mohsen Safai Farahani, recently sentenced to six years in prison, will be released today on bail of $700.000 $ for five days during the appeal against the verdict.

NEW Iran Analysis: “Supreme Leader Warns Rafsanjani” — The Sequels
NEW Iran: Ahmadinejad and the Labor Movement
Iran Analysis: The Supreme Leader Warns Rafsanjani
Iran Special: Breaking Mousavi’s Movement — Beheshti & Abutalabi
Iran Analysis: Reality Check (Yep, We Checked, Government Still in Trouble)
The Latest from Iran (19 January): Cross-Currents

1900 GMT: The Battle Against Ahmadinejad. For all of our attention to the manoeuvres around the Supreme Leader's speech, this may be the most important news on the in-fighting in the establishment. An unnamed influential member of the hardliners who supports the Government declares that Ahmadinejad Chief of Staff Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai "is out".

The website that prints this news, adding, "It appears as if the Government will put away Rahim-Mashai at an appropriate quiet moment"? The pro-Larijani Khabar Online.

1845 GMT: A group of economics professors have asked for the release of Professor Ali Arab Mazar of Allameh Tabatabei University, one of Mir Hossein Mousavi's top advisors, arrested after Ashura.

1840 GMT: Journalist, writer and critic Mehdi Jalil-Khani was arrested on Monday in Zanjan. He was brought blindfolded and handcuffed to the intelligence, accused of "insulting the leader".

1830 GMT: Now Poets are Banned. This entry from Pedestrian deserves to be quoted in full:

Ferdowsi is a monumental 10th century Persian poet. His Shahnameh (Book of Kings, translated into English by Dick Davis) is a national epic read and revered across Iran.

Now the wife of imprisoned journalist, Bahman Ahmadi reports that one of the charges for which he will have to serve an eight year prison sentence is, according to the judge’s verdict: “publishing an epic poem by the poet Ferdowsi on June 12th, 2009 in order to invite the public to protest and revolt.”

It is noted that Bahmad Ahmadi himself was not even allowed to read the verdict.

1455 GMT: The Coughing Protest. Rah-e-Sabz claims that a recent "political education" event at an Iran army barracks had to be cancelled when hundreds of soldiers starting coughing, apparently when the speaker criticised the late Grand Ayatollah Montazeri. Commanders have asked for a list of the dissident coughers.

1445 GMT: Toeing the Line. In a prolonged Press TV advertisement for the regime, Presidential candidate Mohsen Rezaei has blamed the post-election conflict on opposition candidates (Mousavi, Karroubi) who refused to act within the law and on foreign powers trying to unsettle the regime.

The only hint of Rezaei criticism of the Government was the invocation to distinguish between "protesters" and "rioters", both amongst security forces and Iran's state media, but he was happy to support Press TV's uplifting image of "democracy in Iran", with both sides learning to "act within the law".

Rezaei did throw out a conciliatory lifeline to the "Green movement" in the last part of the discussion by invoking the current televised debates as a reason for hope that opposition demands will be considered. Strange, however, that he would allow Press TV to push maybe the most important part of the interview --- Rezaei's letter for "unity" sent to the Supreme Leader earlier this month --- to the final minutes of the conversation.

1440 GMT: Black Comedy. University professors have published a "last will", to be retrieved after their demises: "I, Professor XXXXXX, killed by a bomb/bullet/fallen from a high floor/ suffocated with a string/fallen in a sulphuric acid bath hereby declare that 1) I was not a nuclear scientist, 2) I was never a supporter of Ahmadinejad."

Ebrahim Nabavi offers helpful proposals to Iran police chief Esmail Ahmadi-Moghaddam, who seems to have recently discovered the difference between BMW and SMS.

1435 GMT: Academic Purges. Six prominent professors of Allameh Tabatabei University have been relieved of their duties.

1400 GMT: The Follow-Up on Khamenei & Rafsanjani. We've posted a separate entry on varying responses to yesterday's speech by the Supreme Leader.

1148 GMT: Labour Issues. Deputy Oil Minister Seyfollah Jashn-Saz has warned, "If payments in oil sector continue like this, some employees will leave the country." Not leave the sector, leave the country.

Meanwhile, we've posted an interesting interview with an Iranian labour activist about the situation under the Ahmadinejad Government.

1140 GMT: Baghi's Detention. The wife of journalist Emadeddin Baghi, detained just after Grand Ayatollah Montazeri's death (supposedly for his interview of Montazeri), has spoken about her husband's arrest and detention.

1130 GMT: Where's Mahmoud? Well, in addition to biking and jogging (see 0900 GMT), President Ahmadinejad has met Iraqi Vice President Adel Abdel Mehdi. No mention of Iran's internal situation but Ahmadinejad did put out the line, "Maintenance of unity and integrity among regional countries will be the only way to thwart the conspiracies of enemies."

1125 GMT: While almost all of the Mothers of Mourning detained in recent weeks have been released, Persian2English highlights the case of one supporter who is reported to be in solitary confinement in Evin Prison.

1115 GMT: Who Killed Professor Ali-Mohammadi? Everyone (except us). The "hard-line" newspaper Kayhan reportedly has identified those responsible for the explosion which killed physicist Massoud Ali-Mohammadi last week. Iran's judiciary should go after Mir Hossein Mousavi, Mohammad Khatami, and Mehdi Karroubi who are partners with the "black triangle" of the CIA, Mossad, and Britain's MI6.

0930 GMT: The Khamenei-Rafsanjani Dance. Press TV spins yesterday's speech by former President Hashemi Rafsanjani (and ignores the Supreme Leader's address) to portray unity: "Hashemi echoes Leader in observing law".

0900 GMT: Where's Mahmoud? President Ahmadinejad handles the economic crisis by riding a bike. And jogging.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i-FAypZ2JKQ&feature=sub[/youtube]

0845 GMT: The US-based journalist and scholar Mehdi Khalaji has written a long article about his father, Ayatollah Mohammad Taghi Khalaji, who was arrested last week:

By initiating a crackdown on peaceful protesters and suppressing the first generation of the Islamic Republic, the government has simultaneously discredited its Islamic legitimacy and undermined its revolutionary credentials. This regime has transformed my father from a man concerned with keeping Ayatollah Khomeini's shoulders warm into an enemy of the state. This is a revolution that eats its own children. It places its survival at risk.

0600 GMT: It's a curious but effective phrase: "Waiting for the other shoe to drop" is not just waiting, but waiting with an expectation based on nerves and fear.

So this morning we start by looking around for reactions to the Supreme Leader's speech yesterday. Our initial line, based on a very good source, was that Ayatollah Khamenei had dropped the first shoe to warn Hashemi Rafsanjani that it was time to choose sides.

However, as an EA reader helpfully intervened last night, the warning could have been intended for others in the "elite". Again, we emphasize those within the establishment --- an elite whom Khameini said could assist "sedition" with their ambiguity --- rather than the opposition. In weeks after Ashura (27 December) and before the Supreme Leader's statement, the conservative/principlist challenge to the Government neared insurgency, setting the immediate goals of taking down former Tehran prosecutor Saeed Mortazavi and Ahmadinejad's right-hand man Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai.

The insurgency, carried out through newspapers as well as around the Iranian Parliament, has not yet achieved either immediate goal, but it is likely that Mortazavi will have to resign as a Presidential aide, possibly serving jail time. So one reading of Khamenei's warning to the elite is that the challenge stops there.

That said, if this was a throw-down to those in the establishment beyond Rafsanjani, there's a risky slippage in the Supreme Leader's words. Critics like Ali Motahhari have not been ambiguous in their interviews; they want the removal of President Ahmadinejad or, at least, his reduction to a humiliated figurehead as he gives a public apology for the post-election failures and abuses.

If the critics don't back away from that demand, Khamenei will face a moment beyond yesterday's speech and possibly any declaration he has made since the week after the election: does he drop the other shoe and offer his unconditional backing to Ahmadinejad or does he back away and let a far from ambiguous "elite" despatch the President on a permanent holiday?

Iran Analysis: "Supreme Leader Warns Rafsanjani" --- The Sequels

A valued EA source takes us through the follow-up to the Supreme Leader's Tuesday speech, which we read initially as a warning to Hashemi Rafansanjani and then as a possible warning to other conservative/principlist critics of the Ahmadinejad Government:

1. Ali Larijani backs up Ayatollah Khamenei, but does he also strike at Government "extremists"?:

I know that the Supreme Leader does not like that a group of people under the title of defending the Supreme Leader oppress the people and become hardliners....We can not run the country by socialist economy and the economy (economy activities) should be handed over to people.

Iran Analysis: The Supreme Leader Warns Rafsanjani
The Latest from Iran: If Khamenei’s Other Shoe Drops (20 January)

2. Hojatoleslam Ruhollah Hosseinian, a fervent Ahmadinejad suppporter in Parliament, has gone for an all-out attack: he strikes at Hashemi Rafsanjani, Green movement leaders, the reformist Association of Combatant Clergy, and even Ali Larijani:

This person (Rafsanjani)...is in the government and one of the officials because of the mercy of the leadership, Today he is the lawyer of the reformists and defends them.

We wish that Mr. Hashemi stays loyal to the leader and the revolution, but unfortunately we have to say that he --- in the recent months ---- has been managing the opposition wave. For how long, do you want to speak ambiguously and call the rioters of Ashura "people"?

Majma’ Rohannioon Mobarez (the Association of Combatant Clergys) also issued a statement in support of the opposition protests. I had told one of the members of Association of Combatant Clergy that if I was a judge, I would consider this statement as being "war against God" (mohareb)....

One of the reason why I wanted to resign (as a member of Parliament) is the behaviour and approach of the Parlimant Speaker (Ali Larijani) because we wanted the dismissal of Mr. Mohtashamipour (head of the Palestine Defence Committee), however Mr. Larijani did not pay attention.

3. Hojatoleslam Ibrahimi, of the central council of the Association of Combatant Clergy Association and a member of Parlaiment, offers conciliation. He believes that the deep friendship between the supreme leader and Hashemi Rafsanjani cannot be denied and criticises those  who are trying to cause division between them.

4. Alef Newspaper seems to echo Larijani, strongly criticising those who act inappropriately with the excuse of defending the Supreme Leader. It links an "extremism" which tried to assassinate reformist politician Saeed Hajjarian and attacked dormitories on the Tehran University with the crimes of Kahrizak Prison.

As the 40th Day memorial of Grand Ayatollah Montazeri approaches, Alef reminds readers that, even though the Supreme Leader issued a statement upon the demise of Montazeri, some extremists attacked Ayatollah house and broke the windows. Those extremists also treat other Revolution figures (e.g. Rafsanjani) the same way.

http://alef.ir/1388/content/view/62468

Iran: Ahmadinejad and the Labour Movement

Bill Balderston of Labor Notes interviews a labor organizer, "Homayoun Poorzad", based in Tehran:

Labor Notes: How has the Iranian labor movement fared under the Ahmadinejad regime?*

HP: This has been the most anti-labor government of the Islamic Republic over the last 30 years. The 1979 revolution was not regressive in every sense; it nationalized 70 percent of the economy and passed a labor law that was one of the best in terms of limiting the firing of workers. This is a target for change by capitalists, both private and those in the government bureaucracy.

The economic crisis has helped Ahmadinejad ram thru a new agenda. This is also aided by the acceleration of the percentage (60 percent to 70 percent) of the workforce who are temporary contract workers. Iran, like other countries, has had an import mania. Bargaining power has suffered, with labor supply far outstripping demand.

The Ahmadinejad government has been "bailing out" firms, but the government is running out of money.

The situation for labor is at its lowest status since the start of the 20th century, leaving out the years of the two world wars.

LN: What government actions have led to tensions with Iranian workers?

HP: The Ahmadinejad government is trying to make it easier to fire workers. There have also been massive privatizations, including turning over many firms to the Revolutionary Guards and the armed forces. Again, this has intensified the pushing of more workers into temporary contracts.

In addition, there is a "subsidies reform law" that is imminent.

Previously, the government has provided the equivalent of billions of dollars to subsidize utilities, transportation, gasoline, heating oil, electricity, and water

This will have a double effect: it will lead to massive inflation, but the main damage will be that when factories’ costs increase, it will lead to massive layoffs. We believe this will spark huge labor actions, in somewhere between three months to a year.

LN: How does this situation relate to past developments with workers’ struggles and rights in Iran?

HP: There have been major reductions in labor actions in the last five or six years. Most workers can't afford to strike, and temporary contract workers have virtually no rights. Full-time workers can engage in peaceful protests, according to the Iranian constitution, around working conditions or being paid on time. That leaves more than 8 million workers prevented from organizing themselves. Six years ago, under former president Mohammad Khatami, the situation was better. ILO [International Labor Organization] covenants were signed, which provided some freedom to organize, combined with some encouragement by certain government spokespeople.

It must be said that since the Islamic Revolution, it has been harder in many ways for workers to organize than even under the Shah.

After 1979, there were workers councils (these were politicized organizations). But after 1982, they were expelled and replaced by the Islamic Workers Councils. They pushed the politics of the regime and stymied independent labor action, but they did defend some workers. They have an umbrella organization called the Workers House, which has a newspaper and is represented in the Iranian parliament. In order to maintain their base, they have actually opposed changes in the labor law, and their representative was the only outspoken opponent of the new subsidies cutbacks legislation.

The older workers of the earlier revolutionary period are still respected by younger workers and in that way exert an indirect influence on labor activism.

LN: What sectors of the workforce are active?

HP: The main sectors of the workforce in Iran are in oil and gas, followed by automobiles, steel, textiles, and mining. There are over a dozen nuclei of unions underground and 10 or 11 sectors of the workforce involved, despite the fact there are many less labor actions than 10 years ago.

The best example of recent labor activism is the bus drivers union in Tehran. They have set up workshops and classes on organizing, the history of the labor movement, and legal and constitutional rights for workers. In a work stoppage around wages and working conditions not long ago, they brought Tehran, a major city, to a halt. Even the baseej [the Islamic paramilitary assigned to communities and worksites, at the center of the recent repression] were sympathetic to their strike; the mayor of Tehran addressed more than 10,000 of their members.

After a second strike, the union was banned and the security police arrested their leaders, including Mansoo Osanhoo. [Editor: After last May 1st, other Iranian labor leaders were also arrested--see the U.S. Labor Against the War<http://www.uslaboragainstwar.org/>website.] Over 40 of their leaders were fired and some are still unemployed. The government started privatization; over half the buses are now "owned" by individual drivers. There has also been an attempt to co-opt the bus drivers with some small benefits and pay raises.

The other important union involves the sugar cane workers. They are active in an area near the oil fields and have massive (over 90 percent) support of these agricultural workers and their families. After petitioning for work improvements and meeting with bureaucrats, which led nowhere, they took direct action and blocked a freeway. They have been involved in a three-year struggle.

LN: What has been the role of workers in the recent post-election protests? How do workers view the election of Ahmadinejad?

HP: Some people in the U.S. saw Ahmadinejad as a populist; but workers are not fooled; they know it is a police state, with a right-wing ideology. He has a base in small towns and rural areas amongst the poor. The regime gives handouts of money and coupons to such people before the elections.

The recent protests are often portrayed as just a middle-class movement, but workers are in support of the Green Wave actions. The protests are centered in Teheran, especially in the northern part of the city, which is more middle-class. There are less agents there of the regime, like the Basiji, so people are not so easily identified. That is the second reason there are not many workers currently out on the streets in these protests.

If they are arrested, they would lose their jobs and starve; middle-class demonstrators don't face starvation as a result of their activities.

Overall, there is an ongoing danger from a core of religious radicals, especially the baseej, who believe that by imprisoning and torturing those opposing the Islamic state, they are gaining access to paradise.

The labor movement does not identify with any political faction in the current struggle, but once the labor movement becomes strong, it can effect an overall change in policies, including at the international level. We could stop people such as Ahmadinejad from making such an outrageous speech in the UN about the Holocaust.

LN: What is the Ahmadinejad regime's agenda in this crisis?

HP: First, the whole regime supports an IMF (International Monetary Fund)-type structural adjustment [which usually includes privatization, deregulation, and government cuts to education, public health, and social safety nets].

Second, the government is desperate, facing a possible U.S. or Israeli attack, and is seeking funds for its political agenda. They are sensitive to other oil producers (and their unions), but any outside intervention (even more sanctions, which we believe are not now helpful) will allow them to label any Iranian labor activists as agents of foreign powers.

Third, there will be major layoffs, which would be aggravated by sanctions as well as government policies, which can lead to huge labor actions, especially amongst industrial workers.

It is a unique opportunity to go on the offensive and push the government.

The current regime desperately wishes to join the WTO (World Trade Organization), which requires meeting certain ILO (International Labor Organzation) guidelines. Therefore, union members and leaders in the West can pressure their national and international federations to demand union organizing rights in Iran as well as freeing imprisoned labor leaders. Hopefully, there could be a delegation sent by such federations to Iran and perhaps a committee of trade unions to demand such rights.

The Network of Iranian Labor Unions can be reached at niluinfo@gmail.com and a new website, Iranlaborreport.com.

Haiti: Josh Shahryar's Humanitarian LiveBlog (19/20 January)

EA's Josh Shahryar updates on overnight developments on the humanitarian front in Haiti, complementing his News LiveBlog:

0450 GMT

Doctors Without Broders (MSF) has released a video showing there activities on the ground in Haiti. (Warning, the images are disturbing.)

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yzEar6aCTxQ[/youtube]

0409 GMT

Doctors Without Borders (MSF) report on their day’s work in Haiti:

Loris De Filippi, the coordinator for MSF’s work in Choscal hospital in Cite Soleil, says the situation is dire: “Every time we go out of the operating theatre, we see faces imploring us for treatment. And they are begging us there in front of the hospital. It’s a very unacceptable situation. What we are trying to do is to expand our capacity to answer these calls. But we need supplies to get to the airport—and we don’t know why the planes are being re-directed.”

In Carrefour hospital, Paul McMaster, a surgeon, says that the needs are all too obvious: “We’ve not been able to get the equipment we need in the hospital because of these delivery problems. We’re running out. On Saturday we didn’t have one of our anesthetists. We’ve run out of plaster of Paris for fractures and we’ve no crepe bandages at the moment. So it’s just a nightmare to get these basic materials.”

MSF is currently operating in a host of locations in and around the capital. More than 1,500 patients have received treatment at an MSF hospital in Martissant, to name just one, and 120 of them are receiving inpatient care. MSF recently began working in Port-au-Prince’s General Hospital, where staff found a working dialysis machine and immediately began putting it to use. MSF’s nephrology team carried out its first treatment on Monday and will expand their work when new dialysis machines arrive by road from the Dominican Republic. After numerous delays, the construction of an inflatable hospital has finally begun as well; when complete, it will have room for 100 beds and will house two operating theatres.

In Leogane, one of the hardest hit towns outside the capitol, a team is working in a nursing school where, prior to MSF’s arrival, the staff had been struggling to provide basic care. Another team in Leogane is preparing four surgical wards in what was a missionary hospital to accept the large number of referral cases in the area. In Jacmel, another battered town, an MSF team is performing surgery in the hospital’s operating theater.

0334 GMT

Nate Loucks has an urgent appeal for transportation to Jacmel, southwest of Port-au-Prince from Santo-Domingo.

Kristine Brite writes:

We’ve got a team of doctors/nurses in the DR. Plane broke. Can’t get to Jacmel, Haiti now. Do you know anyone that can help?

Confirmed on his blog:


http://www.nateloucks.com/?p=395

If you know of anyone going from DR to Jacmel, write me and I will coordinate with Nate Loucks.

Contact Kristin or Nate on Twitter by clicking HERE and HERE if you can help provide transporation for these doctors. As you know, lives depend on them in Haiti.

Read LiveBlog....