Wednesday
Jul152009
The Latest from Iran (15 July): Chess not Checkers
Wednesday, July 15, 2009 at 18:44
The Latest from Iran (16 July): Waiting for Rafsanjani's Prayers
NEW Iran's Culture Protest: Singer Shajarian Turns Government to Dust
LATEST Iran Video: Mousavi, Rahnavard with Sohrab Arabi’s Family (14 July)
Iran: Scott Lucas on “Sea of Green Radio”
Iran: Facing the Rubicon of the Supreme Leader’s Authority
The Latest from Iran (14 July): Ripples on the Surface
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1940 GMT: Today, it was Mehdi Karroubi who carried out the opposition strategy of high-profile meetings with families of detainees.
1745 GMT: A Quiet Afternoon --- And Then. After hours where little happened, Mir Hossein Mousavi confirmed on his website that he will attend Friday prayers as part of a march "to collect freedoms" from the Government.
1105 GMT: Tabnak doesn't stop with the Kordan revelations (see 1030 GMT) in its embarrassment of the Government. It also runs an extensive, unflattering profile of Mohammad Mehdi Zahdi, the Minister of Science, Higher Education, and Technology
1030 GMT: Dishing the Dirt. One sign of a Government's weakness is when former members start giving up secrets. So it proves today with President Ahmadinejad's former Interior Minister, Ali Kordan, who was forced to resign over a faked Ph.D. from Oxford University.
So far Kordan's revelations, offered to Tabnak, mainly concern the current Speaker of Parliament, Ali Larijani, but Ali Akbar Nategh-Nouri, now an advisor to the Supreme Leader, Mohsen Rafiqdoost, a founder of the Revolutionary Guard, and Ahmadinejad also appear.
1000 GMT: Estimated deaths in this morning's plane crash now at 168.
Further arrests: Marjan Abdollahian and Koroush Javan Khorshid of Hamshahri newspaper have been detained.
0900 GMT: Iranian state media are confirming the crash of a plane travelling from Tehran to Yerevan in Armenia. The plane came down northwest of the Iranian capital near Qazvin. All 150 aboard are feared dead.
0800 GMT: Following our update below about the dynamics of Friday's prayer service, a post by "Maryam" at Keeping the Change catches the eye, both for its call for demonstration and its suspicion of the former President leading the prayers: "If Rafsanjani's Friday speech is perceived to be against the demonstrators and/or in favor of the regime, then it is likely that the divide that has slowly been developing between the protestors and the Reformists will be radically transformed into an insurmountable abyss, and that the course of the Iranian uprising will once again be instantly altered."
0600 GMT: Early in the post-election conflict, the US analyst Gary Sick commented that "Iranians prefer chess to football". I'm not sure about that: the folks I met in Iran were passionate about the latter (Persepolis v. Esteglhal rivals Manchester United v. Liverpool or even the good Red Sox v. the evil Yankees). The chess part, however, is more than appropriate. This is a contest which will not be decided by one overwhelming blow. Instead, it is a series of moves, some of which cannot yet be read even if they can be anticipated.
Momentum for Friday's prayer service, led by Hashemi Rafsanjani, continues to build. Marchers are anticipating a gathering which cannot be declared illegal, and the participation of key leaders is eagerly awaited though not yet confirmed. The latest symbolic move was the visit of Mir Hossein Mousavi and his wife, Zahra Rahnavard, to the family of the slain protestor Sohrab Arabi (see video in separate entry).
At the same time, there is still uncertainty over how Friday will unfold. Rafsanjani is a powerful figure, but he is also a politician who is not trusted by many people. There is speculation that, rather than presenting a symbolic alliance with the challenge of the protesters, he will use the prayer service to put forth a limited compromise. Ebrahim Nabavi, the prominent Iranian writer living in Belgium, has published an open letter to Rafsanjani, "with much respect and peace", asking him to represent faithfully the concerns of the people.
If so, he may be serving a Government which continues to stagger amidst tension and division. While a window of 2-6 August for Ahmadinejad's inauguration as President has been announced, it is notable that it is still three weeks away. The regime's attempts to limit any challenge are being firmly resisted: Mohammad Hashemi Rafsanjani, the former President's brother, countered a written declaration against the protests by General Sayyed Hassan Firouzabadi, the head of Iran's armed forces, saying that Firouzabadi gravely insulted the Iranian people.
And in Qom, where unease amongst clerics is increasing, even if it is not emerging as a direct challenge to the Government, the staunchly pro-Ahmadinejad Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi has tried to hit back with a series of answers to questions about the Iranian system of clerical authority (velayat-e-faqih) and the position of the Supreme Leader.
NEW Iran's Culture Protest: Singer Shajarian Turns Government to Dust
LATEST Iran Video: Mousavi, Rahnavard with Sohrab Arabi’s Family (14 July)
Iran: Scott Lucas on “Sea of Green Radio”
Iran: Facing the Rubicon of the Supreme Leader’s Authority
The Latest from Iran (14 July): Ripples on the Surface
Receive our latest updates by email or RSS- SUBSCRIBE TO OUR FEED
1940 GMT: Today, it was Mehdi Karroubi who carried out the opposition strategy of high-profile meetings with families of detainees.1745 GMT: A Quiet Afternoon --- And Then. After hours where little happened, Mir Hossein Mousavi confirmed on his website that he will attend Friday prayers as part of a march "to collect freedoms" from the Government.
1105 GMT: Tabnak doesn't stop with the Kordan revelations (see 1030 GMT) in its embarrassment of the Government. It also runs an extensive, unflattering profile of Mohammad Mehdi Zahdi, the Minister of Science, Higher Education, and Technology
1030 GMT: Dishing the Dirt. One sign of a Government's weakness is when former members start giving up secrets. So it proves today with President Ahmadinejad's former Interior Minister, Ali Kordan, who was forced to resign over a faked Ph.D. from Oxford University.
So far Kordan's revelations, offered to Tabnak, mainly concern the current Speaker of Parliament, Ali Larijani, but Ali Akbar Nategh-Nouri, now an advisor to the Supreme Leader, Mohsen Rafiqdoost, a founder of the Revolutionary Guard, and Ahmadinejad also appear.
1000 GMT: Estimated deaths in this morning's plane crash now at 168.
Further arrests: Marjan Abdollahian and Koroush Javan Khorshid of Hamshahri newspaper have been detained.
0900 GMT: Iranian state media are confirming the crash of a plane travelling from Tehran to Yerevan in Armenia. The plane came down northwest of the Iranian capital near Qazvin. All 150 aboard are feared dead.
0800 GMT: Following our update below about the dynamics of Friday's prayer service, a post by "Maryam" at Keeping the Change catches the eye, both for its call for demonstration and its suspicion of the former President leading the prayers: "If Rafsanjani's Friday speech is perceived to be against the demonstrators and/or in favor of the regime, then it is likely that the divide that has slowly been developing between the protestors and the Reformists will be radically transformed into an insurmountable abyss, and that the course of the Iranian uprising will once again be instantly altered."
0600 GMT: Early in the post-election conflict, the US analyst Gary Sick commented that "Iranians prefer chess to football". I'm not sure about that: the folks I met in Iran were passionate about the latter (Persepolis v. Esteglhal rivals Manchester United v. Liverpool or even the good Red Sox v. the evil Yankees). The chess part, however, is more than appropriate. This is a contest which will not be decided by one overwhelming blow. Instead, it is a series of moves, some of which cannot yet be read even if they can be anticipated.
Momentum for Friday's prayer service, led by Hashemi Rafsanjani, continues to build. Marchers are anticipating a gathering which cannot be declared illegal, and the participation of key leaders is eagerly awaited though not yet confirmed. The latest symbolic move was the visit of Mir Hossein Mousavi and his wife, Zahra Rahnavard, to the family of the slain protestor Sohrab Arabi (see video in separate entry).
At the same time, there is still uncertainty over how Friday will unfold. Rafsanjani is a powerful figure, but he is also a politician who is not trusted by many people. There is speculation that, rather than presenting a symbolic alliance with the challenge of the protesters, he will use the prayer service to put forth a limited compromise. Ebrahim Nabavi, the prominent Iranian writer living in Belgium, has published an open letter to Rafsanjani, "with much respect and peace", asking him to represent faithfully the concerns of the people.
If so, he may be serving a Government which continues to stagger amidst tension and division. While a window of 2-6 August for Ahmadinejad's inauguration as President has been announced, it is notable that it is still three weeks away. The regime's attempts to limit any challenge are being firmly resisted: Mohammad Hashemi Rafsanjani, the former President's brother, countered a written declaration against the protests by General Sayyed Hassan Firouzabadi, the head of Iran's armed forces, saying that Firouzabadi gravely insulted the Iranian people.
And in Qom, where unease amongst clerics is increasing, even if it is not emerging as a direct challenge to the Government, the staunchly pro-Ahmadinejad Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi has tried to hit back with a series of answers to questions about the Iranian system of clerical authority (velayat-e-faqih) and the position of the Supreme Leader.
tagged Ali Akbar Nategh-Nouri, Ali Kordan, Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi, Ebrahim Nabavi, Hamshahri, Hashemi Rafsanjani, Iran, Iran Elections 2009, Koroush Javan Khorshid, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Marjan Abdollahian, Mehdi Karroubi, Mir Hossein Mousavi, Mohammad Hashemi Rafsanjani, Mohammad Mehdi Zahdi, Mohsen Rafiqdoost, Revolutionary Guard, Tabnak, Zahra Rahnavard in Middle East & Iran
Ali Akbar Nategh-Nouri, Ali Kordan, Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi, Ebrahim Nabavi, Hamshahri, Hashemi Rafsanjani, Iran, Iran Elections 2009, Koroush Javan Khorshid, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Marjan Abdollahian, Mehdi Karroubi, Mir Hossein Mousavi, Mohammad Hashemi Rafsanjani, Mohammad Mehdi Zahdi, Mohsen Rafiqdoost, Revolutionary Guard, Tabnak, Zahra Rahnavard in Middle East & Iran
Reader Comments (4)
Tom- thanks for the videos. I've taken the liberty of embedding them in your comment, hope that's OK with you.
With Mousavi's announcement of attendance this Friday, it seems we are set for the titanic battle. Hope to see the people showing up to support the green wave this Friday and to one up the Khamanei camp with having the city shut down.
That's ok, Mike. Although I have to add now that apparently the recordings are two weeks old.
I can't stop thinking about your posts of 08:00. Was awakened by a crashing storm & decided to get up & reread the posts as well as the piece by Maryam at Keeping the Change. What stands out is this statement from above:
"This is a contest which will not be decided by one overwhelming blow. Instead, it is a series of moves, some of which cannot yet be read even if they can be anticipated."
The anticipated scenarios aren't mutually exclusive. Mousavi may or may not be trying to contain & defang the movement with his political party. Rafsanjani may only be pursuing his own agenda. Both or either may or may not be working for the good of the people. Both or either may think honestly that they are doing so, but their vision may not fulfill the will of the people. The goals of these leaders may, by accident, coincide with what the people want and need. Both or either may be open to bending toward the cries they hear on the streets and the rooftops...
All possibilities must be held simultaneously until they are played out in real time both behind the scenes and so dearly on the streets, where each sacrifice comes at the highest cost.
Here in Tennessee (USA) we can only pray for the best possible outcome for the people of Iran. Good night... strangely, the storm has passed, just when I finished writing.